Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
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[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
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[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
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[JayJuanGee]

drifting along in the 60-70 slot one day we will leave and quite dramactically.

Yeah we’re building a real acceptance that > $65,000 is normal. Soon there will be a real lack of willing sellers at these prices and the effect of the halving is going to kick in. The next leg up will take us into the $85,000 range I think.

Hopefully we see over $100,000 this year. That will set us up nicely for the peak bull run in 2025. I really need to devise a sell plan for this cycle soon. I’m planning to sell 25% again (like the last cycle peak bull zone in 2021).

Personally, I think that it is better to have a somewhat tentative plan in advance so that you sell on the way up rather than selling on the way down.. yet, I also know that sometimes with the varying personal tradeoffs in regards to how to do accomplish it, it can be easier said than done... . even though I surely buy into the raking approach, but I have been too whimpy so far to even attempt anything close to 25%, which might not be a bad idea.. but I am not unhappy with what I have been doing either.. Maybe I could consider some kind of a compromise.. like 12.5%?  So yeah, maybe I am in a similar boat as you, even though I don't really feel any burning need to sell more than I already do in my already existing system.

I don't think price will go below 50k ever again.

Is this a good statement based on the price action of the past 3 years or so?

Unless some goofy goober with a centralized exchange decides to hurt the price again like SBF did -.-

I think resistance support will be so strong after this halving, and people are going to be fighting over satoshi's like never before between now and next halving.

Thoughts?

EDIT: LFC! Thank you <3 I guess my perception on price action behaviour is somewhat decent! Very self-movivating and I appreciate that merit. 

First of all, you are talking about support and not resistance, so I FTFY

Second, there is nothing really wrong with your proclamation, even though you don't really give very many claim specifics beyond that we are not going below $50k again absent some kind of a black swan event.. .. .. which is not an outrageous proclamation..   

A few months ago, I made a claim that I would be willing to bet (so I consider the odds to be greater than 50/50) that we would not come within 20% of the 200-WMA before the end of 2025.,. and sure currently the 200-WMA is moving up at about $42 per day and currently it is at $34,726-ish.  https://bitcoindata.science/withdrawal-strategy

[danadc]

Yeah we’re building a real acceptance that > $65,000 is normal. Soon there will be a real lack of willing sellers at these prices and the effect of the halving is going to kick in. The next leg up will take us into the $85,000 range I think.

Hopefully we see over $100,000 this year. That will set us up nicely for the peak bull run in 2025. I really need to devise a sell plan for this cycle soon. I’m planning to sell 25% again (like the last cycle peak bull zone in 2021).

Yes, I agree with many who say that the halving should not be confused with the rise in the price of bitcoin, but the real effect of the Halving has always been that, I have great faith that it will not drop further to the $60k -$65k range , and the goal is that by 2024 we will see Bitcoin at $100k and by 2025 it will reach a price of >$180k or more.


I see the movement of BTC with great optimism, we are already at $69k and this motivates me much more to continue obtaining BTC to continue Hodl, I think it can remain in the $67k range and that they can make a difference.

This article speaks very well:

Bitcoin's $66.9K price holds strong, casts doubts on a 'deep correction'

Meanwhile, pseudonymous crypto trader Rekt Capital pointed out that the significant correction event has already happened, with Bitcoin’s price falling by 15% from $66,421 on April 24 to $56,792 on May 2, as per CoinMarketCap data.

“We've had a deep correction, we've had a long correction, and when you have a mix of both, the bottom is always very close,” Rekt declared in a recent X post.



and this chart I liked:

Analysts and observers are closely watching Bitcoin's price for signs of more correction, particularly since the Bitcoin halving event on April 20, drawing on past halving events as a precedent.

Source: https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-deep-correction-doubts-crypto-analysts-price

[Biodom]

Feels like the bullishness is taking over in the markets.  I think inflation has worked it's way through the system and is hitting earnings now, inflating the value of everyone's portfolio and setting up the next inflation wave that is likely to cause some negative effects in the overall economy.  For now though, the rich are getting richer at an incredible pace and Bitcoin is benefitting from it greatly.  It's only a matter of time before the new all time high articles start hitting news stands and regular people start realizing what's happening and that their narrative on Bitcoin is completely wrong.

Well you are optimistic today.

I am still debating what to do next.

Selling off the mine is sad but must be done.

After I sell more gear I will decide what is next.

So far I have sold over 17k in gear lots more to sell

Good luck with your sales! I always thought the selling of no longer used gear was the hardest part about mining.

I am pretty optimistic about anything priced in dollars. Sure, we’re due for a horrible recession that will strengthen the dollar and crash asset prices, but it will be a temporary opportunity to flee fiat as government debts cause a laughable amount of money printing over the following decade. I’m not just bullish on Bitcoin. I’m especially bullish on anything with pricing power. Established brands of any kind will do quite well over the coming 10-20 years in my opinion.

Strengthen the $?
It's already pretty strong...just look at the USD/JPY.
You might have meant a decrease in inflation, perhaps?
That might happen...or not.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
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[SilverCryptoBullet]

First of all, you are talking about support and not resistance, so I FTFY

Supports and resistances are meaningful for traders, speculators and gamblers in the market. Because they use leverages for margin or future tradings and they take high risk, then the market will give them good profit if it break strong resistances or can give them big loss by liquidations if a strong resistance stays. Even the market price breaks a strong resistance, people who have short position with leverages can be liquidated too.

Supports and Resistances are where those people with their leveraged positions, can be killed by Long squeeze or Short squeeze.

With a true holder, support or resistance don't affect them too much because they are simply holding with time and barely cash out part of their bitcoin investment.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
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[JayJuanGee]

First of all, you are talking about support and not resistance, so I FTFY

Supports and resistances are meaningful for traders, speculators and gamblers in the market. Because they use leverages for margin or future tradings and they take high risk, then the market will give them good profit if it break strong resistances or can give them big loss by liquidations if a strong resistance stays. Even the market price breaks a strong resistance, people who have short position with leverages can be liquidated too.

Supports and Resistances are where those people with their leveraged positions, can be killed by Long squeeze or Short squeeze.

With a true holder, support or resistance don't affect them too much because they are simply holding with time and barely cash out part of their bitcoin investment.

Fair enough points, and there are likely plenty of us longer term BTC holders who may have learned a few lessons along the way, including that getting through the first cycle or so may well be quite challenging, including that unless you are able to front load your BTC investment, it could take you more than a whole cycle just to get to a point in which you might start to feel that you have accumulated enough BTC, so you may well not ONLY hold through various breaks of support or resistance, but you may well continue to buy no matter which side of the range the BTC price might happen to be... so then in that regard, there may well be questions about how much bitcoin is enough and is there going to be any advantages in terms of selling at any point in the first 4-6 years if you might have had determined that you don't quite have enough BTC.. so then the ongoing better (and assured) of ways to get more bitcoin is just to continue to buy as long as you have money and perhaps to hold during points that you are running out of money, and if you have cashflow coming from other sources, to just try to continue to figure out how much of your cash flow you are able to use in order to continue to buy more bitcoin.

Again, there may or may not be abilities to front load your BTC investment, but even if there is, it could take a whole cycle and maybe two cycles to start to feel comfortable in terms of having enough BTC... and there are even several guys here who are kind of on the border of those kinds of assessments (surely from their own perspective regarding how many BTC they believe that they need)... so HODL and continue to buy for the longer term investors.. and at some point it might start to become more clear that you have enough BTC to be able to pretty much sell BTC any time that you want, but you still might choose to sell in strategic ways rather than selling all the time or even selling big chunks at a time, which may well NOT be necessary... including (back to LFC's issue and tentative plan) whether selling 25% in any particular cycle is a good thing or not - and surely there might be some reasonable prudence built into such a strategy, even though it sounds like a lot to sell in one cycle. for some of us.. especially since there seems to be some built in expectations of being able to buy back cheaper.. which may or may not end up happening... and would such a person still be accepting of the fact that he sold 25% of his stash at a price that might end up NOT being even close to a high for that cycle.

[bitebits]

drifting along in the 60-70 slot one day we will leave and quite dramactically.

Yeah we’re building a real acceptance that > $65,000 is normal. Soon there will be a real lack of willing sellers at these prices and the effect of the halving is going to kick in. The next leg up will take us into the $85,000 range I think.

Hopefully we see over $100,000 this year. That will set us up nicely for the peak bull run in 2025. I really need to devise a sell plan for this cycle soon. I’m planning to sell 25% again (like the last cycle peak bull zone in 2021).

Personally, I think that it is better to have a somewhat tentative plan in advance so that you sell on the way up rather than selling on the way down.. yet, I also know that sometimes with the varying personal tradeoffs in regards to how to do accomplish it, it can be easier said than done... . even though I surely buy into the raking approach, but I have been too whimpy so far to even attempt anything close to 25%, which might not be a bad idea.. but I am not unhappy with what I have been doing either.. Maybe I could consider some kind of a compromise.. like 12.5%?  So yeah, maybe I am in a similar boat as you, even though I don't really feel any burning need to sell more than I already do in my already existing system.

[...]

See bolded part, so you lost more bitcoin by various exchange 'hacks' than you net sold over the years?


Interesting report when you like graphs. Mainly about gold but the great thing is it introduces bitcoin to all its readers. You would think some of the goldbugs must have a 'hmm interesting' moment when it consistently outperforms on any plotted metric.

Report:
https://ingoldwetrust.report/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/In-Gold-We-Trust-report-2024-english.pdf

Graph summary by Tuur Demeester:
https://x.com/TuurDemeester/status/1791873109328335049

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
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[somac.]

Some thoughts after my usual glance over at mempool.space

1. Fees are low, 8 sat/vB at the moment. I guess that's why I'm not hearing anything from all the chicken littles regarding the bitcoin is broken high fees crap. The solution to high fees is high fees, especially regarding shit like ordinals, runes, etc. All that crap is utter trash with no financial value hence the inability for them to maintain high fees.

2. No significant decrease in hashrate after the halving. Maybe I'm being a bit early on this but I'm sure after the last few halvings we saw a much larger decrease in hashrate in the same time period. What does this tell us about the value (not price) of Bitcoin I wonder.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[El duderino_]

Uncountable times
Read supply shock to emerge.
X O for today.

Haiku with a riddle.
Where is the Dude going to.

[El duderino_]

Observing 66,823@Stamp

Usual WO game:

Where am I?



I blame joker_josue tool for rotating the image!

Have a good trip my friend.

[As-Soon-As]

Some thoughts after my usual glance over at mempool.space

1. Fees are low, 8 sat/vB at the moment. I guess that's why I'm not hearing anything from all the chicken littles regarding the bitcoin is broken high fees crap. The solution to high fees is high fees, especially regarding shit like ordinals, runes, etc. All that crap is utter trash with no financial value hence the inability for them to maintain high fees.

2. No significant decrease in hashrate after the halving. Maybe I'm being a bit early on this but I'm sure after the last few halvings we saw a much larger decrease in hashrate in the same time period. What does this tell us about the value (not price) of Bitcoin I wonder.

Bitcoin transaction fees definitely save if you follow mempool, you notice now there is 9sat/VB, which is totally under control.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
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[psycodad]

<snip>

OT:
Whoever recommended Zoneminder to me on this thread, a few weeks ago, i have to thank you again.
My daughter had a urgent surgery yesterday, and thanks to Zoneminder (and a little programming magic) she can watch a livestream of our horses from the hospital on mum's smartphone, where the two will be staying for some days. Surgery went well, and thanks to my instincts and medical/health knowledge we went to the doctor yesterday asap, who sent us straight to the hospital.

<snip>

That might have been me, glad it helped and all the best for your daughter, hope she recovers quickly and fully.

It just triggered me, because I spent my last two days zoning the monitors and fine-tuning their sensitivity/detection. Already got a fox and two martens tonight (it was already working pretty well so far with bigger objects - i.e. burglars - but I missed on most smaller objects when they didn't turn on the motion controlled lights).
Next I gonna replace more static cams with PTZs that I can get from AliX for under $100 - it's fun to look around your house with your mouse without lifting your ass  ). And as soon as I get my hands on a decent GPU I will dive into object recognition with the Event Notification Server.

I am sure you checked out zmNinja if streaming to mobiles is one of your main objectives.

Again, all the best to your daughter!