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321  Economy / Service Discussion / Re: Crypto lender Celsius mulls possible restructuring amid financial woes on: July 15, 2022, 03:34:26 PM


According to this article (https://www.theblock.co/post/157647/celsius-bankruptcy-documents-claim-1-2-billion-balance-sheet-gap), Celsius have said that their mining operations will be used to pay off their deficits. Apparently they mine ~14 BTC a day. At current prices and hashrates, they would only be able to mine a little over half of that $1.2 billion before the block subsidy disappears in ~120 years.

There is something really fishy there, from the loan which Celsius Mining took from Celsius Loaning to those numbers.
<>
Of course, they could have other miners on other algorithms but the numbers are still inflated, I would say at least by half.

I would say with near certainty that the numbers in the bankruptcy filing are not intentionally inflated. Celsius has no reason to inflate these numbers. No sane person is going to deposit additional coin onto their platform, including coin for collateral for a loan. The bankruptcy filing will put all litigation on hold (prevent litigation from being filed/initiated), and any actual values will eventually come out, if the values are misrepresented.

There is the potential that some of the numbers are missing some context, or are based on faulty assumptions, but I don't think they are being intentionally misrepresented.
322  Other / Politics & Society / Re: What is the motive behind the shooting of the Japanese PM? on: July 15, 2022, 10:38:51 AM
Was surprised to see such little security surrounding Shinzo Abe which even allowed the assailant to get so close with whatever homemade device he had.
Japan has very strict gun laws, so security is accordingly relaxed. Their gun laws really makes everyone more vulnerable to the one person who decides to break the law.

I agree on the point that Japan has relaxed security due in part to tight gun control laws.

But the argument that "their gun laws really makes everyone more vulnerable to the one person who decides to break the law" doesn't make any sense at all. If you want to use a gun to murder someone, then it is far more difficult for you to do so in Japan than it is in, say, the US. Deciding to break the law doesn't mean you are able to do so, if you can't get hold of a gun. Letting everyone have access to guns causes more gun deaths. Restricting access to guns prevents gun deaths.


If there is a bad person who has the intent of doing bad things, if they do not have access to a gun, they can just as easily use other weapons, that in many cases are more difficult to defend against, such as a car or a truck, or a knife.
323  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Get your coins out of Coinify ASAP on: July 15, 2022, 10:36:19 AM
Most likely, Coinifly is not going to allow withdrawals as of the time of the bankruptcy filing if the bankruptcy filing is going to affect the operations. So it is likely too late to withdraw.
I looked around but couldn't find anyone that recently complained about withdrawal issues on Coinify [it's worth noting that it's the exact opposite for Voyager's users], so perhaps there's still some hope.
If this is true, it is likely that Coinify is unaffected by the bankruptcy filing.

The effect of Voyager's bankruptcy filing on Conify depends largely on the legal structure and relationship between the two entities.
324  Other / Politics & Society / Re: Trump Lite on: July 15, 2022, 10:27:26 AM
Johnson campaigned as being a conservative, but when he governed, he was governing from the left.

LOLWHUT?

If Boris Johnson is left-wing, then I'm the fucking Intergalactic Space Pope.  I'm fairly sure you're being unintentionally hilarious, but just no.  

Boris Johnson is continuing the tory trend of asset-stripping public services to sell to private companies.  He believes in private health insurance rather than an NHS which is free at the point of need.  His primary interest in taking the UK out of the European Union is slashing consumer protections, environmental protections and workers rights in order to benefit private companies.  


Johnson was trying to raise taxes on corporations, raised the payroll tax, had a "net zero" emissions goals for England, in addition to crazy covid policies, among other things.

None of the above is what voters voted for, nor is what he campaigned on.
325  Economy / Service Discussion / Re: Crypto lender Celsius mulls possible restructuring amid financial woes on: July 15, 2022, 10:20:06 AM
This makes me tend to believe this is more of an issue of Celsius being a failed bank, and not them putting customer money in exotic "investments".
Do we know if Celsius's loan to 3AC, which was the catalyst for their collapse, was over collateralized, under collateralized, or not collateralized at all?
I am not sure.

My guess is that any solution is going to involve money being injected from a third party, either in the form of debt or in the form of someone buying (part of) Celsius, unless they end up not being able to honor all deposits in full.
I think its a given right now that they will not be honoring all user deposits in full. With entities such as Goldman Sachs preparing to scoop up their assets at a huge discount, Celsius will not have enough money to pay all their secured depositors, let alone their users who are unsecured deposits and are last on the list to receive any compensation.
It does appear that Celcius has insufficient funds to honor all deposit holders in full. It is not clear why they have less assets than liabilities, although I think it is likely because of a (series of) bad loan(s) they have already written off. Perhaps the loan to 3AC was not sufficiently collateralized as of when the loan was written down and/or other loans were in a similar position.

For those who might interest, an investor who is also a lawyer points some observations regard the currently situation at reddit:
https://www.reddit.com/r/CelsiusNetwork/comments/vyw8et/bankruptcy_filings_are_answering_some_questions/

Well, he updated it with some good news :
<>

Quote
3. One of the filings requires a detailed description of the accounting and bank system used by Celsius. You can view the PDF here. Of note, Celsius has a lot of accounts. Some of which, somewhat surprisingly, "fund Celsius investments in gold futures, among other things."

This is really bad, really bad PR.
<>
Of course their blog post has a lot of lawyer-picked words to spin this as something good for the company.
I really don't see many people depositing more money into Celsius, nor becoming a customer in the near future. I honestly don't think PR should be a concern right now.

In the thousand of tweets that were praising Celsius for paying back the land, I've read one that anticipated it..

Quote
They're paying down their loan obligations with customer funds. Once they've cleared the defi debt, they will go to Bankruptcy court.  Depositors are hosed. Will be lucky to get 20c on the $ returned.

You generally cannot pay a debt shortly before filing for bankruptcy, and these payments may be reversed by the bankruptcy court if they actually occurred. If collateral held by a third party that secured a loan was liquidated by the lender, that may be a different story.


Quote
Adam Levitin, Georgetown law professor and principal at Gordian Crypto Advisors, said Celsius customers may have to wait years to see their money again and may only be entitled to pennies on the dollar. Customers that took part in Celsius’s high-yield deposit program could be seen as unsecured creditors in the eyes of the court. “The treatment here seems to be that the customer’s crypto is actually the company’s property, and as an unsecured creditor, you don’t get your bitcoins back,” Levitin told CNBC, adding that he doesn’t think Celsius is the last of the crypto bankruptcies.

Again, I must admit that I have very little knowledge on how this thing will play, especially since there is already a controversy on what those funds were, and how they should be treated but my opinion is that everyone should write this as a loss and let it be if something good comes out it will be a nice surprise, if no, that's it.
There are a lot of things that will affect the percentage of their deposits that deposit holders get bac, but I think it is most likely that it will be a long time before customers have their money returned.
326  Economy / Computer hardware / Re: Hopefully someone can help on: July 10, 2022, 09:57:30 PM
Good afternoon, recently I came into possession of 4 "Antminer" devices and to be honest I dont know anything about them and I am honestly just looking to sell them.

in all honesty they were delivered to me about 4 months ago on accident. the shipper was contacted multiple times they picked them up multiple times and kept bringing them back

I find this story of yours quite unconvincing, because it's hard to believe that someone can deliver something to you, even though it's more than obvious that it doesn't belong to you. Such valuable packages are not driven around without proper documentation and without a tracking number and delivered to random addresses. I would never receive such a package, and every honest person would do the same, so let the company that delivers the packages deal with that problem.
I agree. If someone had purchased miners that ended up at the OP's address, they would presumably be trying to contact the seller, trying to find out where they are. Further, if someone had sold miners to someone, it would be unusual for them to be unresponsive to their customers, as the OP has claimed to be unable to get ahold of the sender.
327  Economy / Reputation / Re: Goodbye, world! on: July 10, 2022, 09:52:09 PM
I read Rikafip's quoted comment since he published it first time. And, at first sight, I tended to agree that Lauda could have been male. Then I thought again. Could have Lauda done such a mistake? Could Lauda try to avoid exposing their gender by all means and forget what they were doing inside Croatian board?

By knowing Lauda and the way they acted here all the time regarding privacy, I came to the conclusion that it's possible that what Lauda did in Croatian board was yet another step to mislead people about their gender, in order to better protect their privacy (and, if it is so, then it's a brilliant idea!). Somehow (although Lauda never admitted that), in international boards, some perceived Lauda as female. Then "she" wrote, on purpose, as male in Croatian board. Why? One reason could be exactly this: to have people even more confused about Lauda's gender and trigger even more question marks.

From what I can tell, Lauda cared more about her privacy as she became more well-known. I think part of this was due to her being disliked by so many people because she called them out as scammers, and she did not want to be harassed IRL.

I have the impression that Lauda did not care as much about her privacy in her early days on the forum. That is not to say that there may not be other reasons for her to mislead others about her gender (if that is what she is doing).
328  Other / Politics & Society / Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine[In Progress] on: July 10, 2022, 09:41:53 PM
The United States shouldn't just be supplying Ukraine with weapons, Ukraine also needs man power, because Russians are advancing seriously.
I feel what the United States are doing to Ukraine is not just enough, else,the Ukraine should give up to avert further damages.
This is not going to happen, especially under Biden.

Must of the West appear to be afraid of a direct conflict with Russia, and to be fair, Russia does have the largest stockpile of nukes, so a direct conflict is generally undesirable. The US tends to prefer proxy wars, in which its military does not directly fight its enemies.
329  Other / Meta / Re: modify button. on: July 10, 2022, 09:17:42 PM
It is trivial to correct the documentation (or the actual process). I see no reason why one of these cannot be corrected.
Oh, yeah, right, the documentation. Calling @theymos for the unfinished work. But anyway, I dont think he will do it urgently as its probably too far on its todo list. Good thing it's discovered though.
I think most likely that the documentation is from SMF, or is the default documentation from SMF. Updating the documentation is something that shouldn't take more than 2 minutes. Or if the button name were to be updated, it should take a similar amount of time.


Ah, I just saw PrimeNumber7 made the same argument I just did about the language diversity.  Reading is fundamental.
Great minds think alike
330  Economy / Service Discussion / Re: Recent events should make you withdraw all your coins to your own wallet: Part 2 on: July 10, 2022, 09:13:23 PM
Celsius required its business borrowers to post only an average of about 50% collateral on its $2.7 billion of loans as of last spring, the documents show. Undercollateralized lending is considered a risky practice, one that was more generous than that of many of Celsius’s competitors. Celsius used some of that collateral to borrow more money itself, a process known as rehypothecation, adding additional risk.
Give out undercollateralized loans, and then spend that collateral yourself, leaving the loans with zero collateral you can fall back on.
The rehypothecation practice is particularly troubling to me, probably more so than the making under collateralized loans. The rehypothecation adds an additional layer of risk that they will be unable to cover withdrawals as they are requested by deposit holders, and borrowers as they pay off their loans.

It is likely more of an indication of the business not using a hot wallet, or using a smaller hot wallet.
Or a business not actually having access to the funds they need to cover customer withdrawals.
Starting to delay withdrawal requests is an indication that they lack funds to cover withdrawals, but maintaining a long-standing practice of not immediately processing withdrawals until the following business day does not indicate that, as long as the delay is not increasing. They have a cutoff time, and as long as all withdrawals requested prior to the cutoff time are processed according to their schedule, all else being equal, I would not think they are having liquidity problems.
331  Other / Meta / Re: Should there be a central warning board (not reputation) on: July 10, 2022, 08:53:20 PM

So even now a bit more then yesterday when I started this thread I do think either.
1) A separate section is needed.
2) If it does not get done; a bit of discussion about where and how posts like this should be made so instead of checking reputation and then scams and then services and then.... people can just take a quick look someplace. Would not be perfect or even close to it, but it would be better then now.

-Dave

Last year, I wrote about how marketplace activity has been on the decline, and I have generally noticed that overall forum activity has been on the decline.

I don't think that many new users to bitcoin are going to review the forum before using a particular service. I think it is more likely they will google the company's name. So as long as the thread is created, and it is indexed by google, a potential user will see your thread, regardless of which section it is posted in.
332  Economy / Service Discussion / Re: Recent events should make you withdraw all your coins to your own wallet: Part 2 on: July 10, 2022, 08:48:31 AM
Do you have a source for this?
You can see from Voyager's accounts which I linked to earlier in this thread: https://www.newswire.ca/news-releases/voyager-digital-provides-market-update-851734302.html
The post you were replying to was specifically about Celcus. I am really not familiar with Voyager.


It should also not be a secret that any company that pays interest on customer deposits is lending out those deposits (aka acting as a fractional reserve bank). There is literally no other way in which any company would be able to pay interest on deposits and not go out of business.
And yet, they deliberately don't make that obvious on their sites. And despite however many times I've told people to avoid these platforms, there are always multiple users saying "Well, they wouldn't do anything risky, funds are safu!"
Ultimately, it is up to the users of a business to properly review and understand the terms they are agreeing to prior to doing business with said business.

I don't think the lack of ~instant withdrawals is necessarily an indication that funds are not safe. It is likely more of an indication of the business not using a hot wallet, or using a smaller hot wallet.
333  Other / Meta / Re: [POLL] DT2 Status; how many net inclusions should it take? on: July 10, 2022, 08:21:27 AM
There is one thing you are leaving out -- the underlying reason why someone has this power is that many people have included the person in their trust list. Those who are on DT1 is (somewhat) random, and does rotate, however the people who are on DT1 are not arbitrary, they have effectively been chosen by the community to have this power.

Indeed, they have been chosen by a very small minority of the community:
I no longer have a database of forum posts, so I cannot answer these questions.

Of the 133 people who are eligible to be on DT1, how many people included them on their trust lists that have 10/100 merit (how many people actually played a role in selecting those eligible to be on DT1)? Of those who potentially can play a role in selecting who is on DT1, how many people have no one on their trust list who is eligible for DT1? How many people who are potentially able to play a role in selecting DT1 have a trust list, but no one on their trust list is eligible for DT1? How many accounts are actually active by various metrics (such as making a post in the last 60 days, logging in during the last 60 days, etc).

As I said, I don't know the answer to the above questions. But I do think the answers will give context to assertations that a "very small minority" of the community selects DT1. The headline number of users is obviously inflated due to spam bots, and inactive users.
334  Economy / Service Discussion / Re: Recent events should make you withdraw all your coins to your own wallet: Part 2 on: July 10, 2022, 07:06:31 AM
along with likely loan losses resulting from the value of the collateral being less than the repayment values of the various loans they made.
Or, in many cases, handing out uncollateralized loans worth hundreds of millions of dollars.
Do you have a source for this?

but those exchanges that hold withdrawals for "security checks" also likely add a human component to add an actual person's judgment when deciding if a withdrawal should be allowed or not.
And a platform which has assets of over a billion dollars can afford to pay to have someone available to perform these checks 24/7. Holding withdrawals for 5 or more days is completely unjustified, and just a method to protect their fractional reserve system from a bank run.
They disclosed this policy, and it was public before their customers deposited their money. I don't think it is fair to cry 'scam' when this policy has been in place for time, and those trying to withdraw should not be surprised when they have to wait for a withdrawal.

It should also not be a secret that any company that pays interest on customer deposits is lending out those deposits (aka acting as a fractional reserve bank). There is literally no other way in which any company would be able to pay interest on deposits and not go out of business.

And it turns out that Tether had a loan with Celsius as well: https://tether.to/en/tether-discloses-celsius-loan-liquidation-process/. Of course Tether have said that this liquidation will have no affect on their reserves, but given that we know that Tether repeatedly lie about their reserves, and we've just seen a bunch of other platforms lie and say everything is fine shortly before they shut down and file for bankruptcy, then make of that statement what you will.
The teather statement said two things:
1 - that tether.io made an equity investment in celsius, and that equity investment is not part of their reserves.
2 - that tehter lent money to celsius, that was secured by collateral, which was held by tether, and in accordance with the terms of said loan, the collateral was liquidated to satasify (pay off) the loan in full, and excess collateral was returned to tether.

I am not aware of any facts to suggest tether is in danger of having less than full reserves as a result of what is happening with celsius. I think the speculation that tether will file bankruptcy and/or will be unable to redeem all of the USDT they have issued is baseless speculation.
335  Other / Politics & Society / Re: What is the motive behind the shooting of the Japanese PM? on: July 10, 2022, 06:30:40 AM
Was surprised to see such little security surrounding Shinzo Abe which even allowed the assailant to get so close with whatever homemade device he had.
Japan has very strict gun laws, so security is accordingly relaxed. Their gun laws really makes everyone more vulnerable to the one person who decides to break the law.

In your opinion, apart from the embedded revenge motive, could there be a policy that is truly unacceptable to the suspect, because based on Tetsuya Yamagami background is a former Japanese Maritime Self-Defense Force, is it just a personal grudge?
As TheNineClub mentioned, it appears the shooter believed Abe to be associated with a religious group. It may be possible that the shooter believed that his mother donated excess money to this group.
336  Other / Meta / Re: Should there be a central warning board (not reputation) on: July 10, 2022, 06:12:05 AM
Somehow I have a feeling that if we had a "Warning" section, it'd be flooded with threads nowhere near the level of importance of the one DaveF started about Coinify, and it'd probably be a breeding ground for all sorts of FUD topics like rumors about Kucoin freezing withdrawals and becoming insolvent, etc.

It isn't a horrible idea, Dave, but I'd say there's about a 0% chance of this being implemented.  I don't know how many threads I've seen in the last two years with really good suggestions for forum improvement features, but I'm pretty sure that less than 3% of them ever became reality.

I was more along the lines of ONLY things like 'real' news items about things. I don't care about the 1Xbit scams or the obvious things. But rather items that may have escaped notice. I only remembered about the ownership because of something I was looking at elsewhere.
The forum does not moderate for accuracy of posts, and I don't think the forum is going to be willing to moderate based on the perceived severity of the allegation.

I think the most appropriate section for the coinify thread would be service discussion. Users may not specifically check that particular section, however hopefully google will rank said thread high in their search results, and anyone searching for that service will see your warning.
337  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Get your coins out of Coinify ASAP on: July 10, 2022, 04:05:05 AM
Most likely, Coinifly is not going to allow withdrawals as of the time of the bankruptcy filing if the bankruptcy filing is going to affect the operations. So it is likely too late to withdraw.
338  Other / Meta / Re: modify button. on: July 09, 2022, 07:29:26 AM
but the user guide still says "Modify".
Perhaps it's because it still means the same thing?

Not everyone necessarily knows English well enough to know the meanings of both words, and someone may have to look up the meaning of "modify" when trying to change their post.

The documentation should match the actual procedure.
Might be a thing but its a common english words to modify is to edit and to edit is to modify. The same meaning.
You can argue the two words have the same meaning, but this argument does not address the issue that the documentation does not match the actual process. If someone is looking for the xyz button, they should not have to go looking for words similar to xyz when looking for this button.

It is trivial to correct the documentation (or the actual process). I see no reason why one of these cannot be corrected.
339  Other / Politics & Society / Re: Trump Lite on: July 09, 2022, 07:25:38 AM
Boris Johnson has this morning finally acknowledged that his position is untenable, and has promised to resign as Prime Minister.
I blame this largely on his imposing crazy covid policies that are not rooted in science. They are so unrooted in science, that he displayed that the restrictions were worthless by repeatedly violated these policies.


The UK political system seems to be fairly strange. Perhaps the July 4th committee in the UK can learn something from the January 6th committee in the US, and vice versa.

Perhaps they have already learned something from the J6 committee.  Let a sociopath in power get away with too much and eventually he will try and steal your democracy.

There is no evidence that Johnson is going to try to "steal" democracy.

Johnson campaigned as being a conservative, but when he governed, he was governing from the left.

This is basically the same as Biden -- he campaigned as being a moderate, but has governed from the far, radical left.
340  Other / Meta / Re: modify button. on: July 08, 2022, 09:18:41 AM
but the user guide still says "Modify".
Perhaps it's because it still means the same thing?

Not everyone necessarily knows English well enough to know the meanings of both words, and someone may have to look up the meaning of "modify" when trying to change their post.

The documentation should match the actual procedure.
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