In which jurisdictions?  Once the Lawsky regs are enacted, it would be illegal in New York State.  But that hasn't been enacted yet, and is just one jurisdiction.  What about the rest of the world?

Think of all the money in IRA accounts that can go long on the COIN ETF, but are forbidden from buying on margin or shorting due to IRA rules.

It is.  Central planning is notoriously bad at predicting where capital needs to be invested.  It leads to massive inefficiencies, which usually means a slower economy, loss of jobs, and poorer conditions for the working class.  Distribution of money by those in government is a form of central planning.  Individuals and small groups of people are simply not good at knowing where to invest.

A truly free market will perform much better than central planners.  Note that crony capitalists need not apply.  They are just as bad as central planners, picking out businesses to receive money instead of individuals.

That would be crony capitalism, which is equally evil.

It looks like the current low matches up fairly well with the low before the June 2011 spike began.  That would mean the drop after the next bubble would be horrific, like that after the June 2011 bubble peak.  I'm hopeful COIN and GABI can change this pattern.  Also, if our bubble doesn't start soon, we may just skip it altogether and drop into the horrific valley after continued sideways trading.  I'm doubtful on that though as I we need the dumb money bought into the market before it tanks like that.  Right now the dumb money is in fiat.

I see this:


I do not like the repercussions of my analysis.  May GABI and COIN stop it in its tracks.

So what you're saying is your system makes profit when the market is in a medium-term trend, but has some problems when that trend direction changes?  Have you looked to address that?  Are you worried about the resumption of the long-term bull trend?

It's quite possible to corner the Bitcoin market.  There won't be enough coins in others' hands to break through your buy wall at that point.  Just like the Jesse Livermore days again...

It really amazes me how small the market depth for Bitcoin exchanges really are.  I'm used to much larger markets.  I was doing a bit of bistro math on a napkin and found that the market is so small, it's possible to simply buy the price up yourself and profit.

The market is at about $600 / BTC right now.  The historical average is for a 10x gain per year.  That's about a 21.2% average increase per month.  Looking strictly at Bitstamp (and yes I'm aware you'd need to do this on all the exchanges, and not just Bitstamp), it would cost about USD$7,840,000 to reach $727.20, a 21.2% price increase, plus another USD$7,272,000 for a 10,000 BTC buy wall at that price.  Anyone with over 118805 BTC will make more money from the price increase than spent performing this operation.

Now imagine you made an announcement that you will be buying the market up 21.2% higher than your last purchase every single month on the 1st of the month, and moving the wall up there as well.  I can guarantee you there'd be a great deal of buying by others over the course of each month as everyone scrambles to become part of the rally.  That would make it even cheaper to increase the price.  In fact, most of the price increase would probably be done for you after everyone grew to count on the monthly increase.

Food for thought on the kind of things we might see when Wall Street quantitative analysts really start looking into BTC.

So now we have two dates for GABI.  One article said they will "launch" tomorrow, 8/1.  This new article says they will start "trading" on 9/1.  I don't know if there has been a mistake in one of the articles, or if it will launch tomorrow, but not buy its first set of Bitcoins until 9/1.

EW can work absent large fundamental news.  But most technical analysis fails when some large event takes place.  For example, the COIN ETF opening up could generate a great deal of buying pressure right when you expect a wave down.

When the next halving hits, that supply will be cut in half, and price should go up.

Sounds like you're speaking EW, and speculating we may be in for a wave down beyond $550 now.

So, everyone has pretty much given up on any kind of rally creating a new ATH within the next couple weeks, right?

And what would happen after this correction is complete?  I can't tell if you're talking about the correction to the long term bull market, the correction to the recent rally, or some other correction.  Depending on the time frame your words can be interpreted to mean anything.

The majority of the hashing power must agree to this change.  So it's not that the "majority overruled hashing power".  It's just that the majority of the hashing power overruled the minority, as in any other double-spend attempt.

As this is open source, any kill switch would be publicly visible.  It's not there.  Now then, within a closed source implementation, such as any proprietary "coin" invented by J.P. Morgan for example, a kill switch could easily be hidden.

So this is just a wallet with a built-in exchange.  Now if this were a decentralized exchange, we might be onto something.

If you truly want to participate in something like this, why not simply create a ledger of Bitcoin addresses correlated with forum names by signed messages?  You can rank by Bitcoin balance.