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Now where's that guy who said he'd disclose his bid?
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Timeline:
1) Large Buyers are slowly accumulating Bitcoin as exchange depth allows, trying not to run the price up on themselves while they try to fill their accounts to their planned levels of exposure.
2) They find out about the SR Seized Coin auction. Some may have found out before the public announcement.
3) They stop buying on exchanges and save their funds for later bids at the auction.
[ ... ]
No sane manager would change his firm's financial strategy on account of the possibility of winning a closed-bid auction -- especially one where every moderately rich bitcoin enthusiast in the world can bid. The chances of winning such an auction with a financially responsible bid price are way too small. From a business perspective, bidding at such auctions is an opportunistic activity: winning would be great, but one must be prepared to lose many times before scoring a win -- or even to lose every time. Irrelevant. Every single bidder that showed up at this auction has funds reserved for a bid of at least 1 lot of 3,000 coins. Many have funds for more, and some for all lots. Many losing bidders will be left without coins. At some point these bidders made the decision to be buyers of Bitcoin. This decision is unlikely to change as a result of this auction. So we can expect most of the buyers to move their bids elsewhere rather than remove them entirely. This is a great deal more purchasing power than is required for the purchase of these <30K coins. However, there will be more coins auctioned by the US government in the future. And there is an OTC market -- only the perma bull case asserts that these buyers need to buy NOW. No, the buyers themselves asserted they want to buy now simply by presenting themselves for this auction with a $200,000 deposit. Future auctions may not even happen. It will be years before the court case is over and all appeals are done. By then, even if he loses, there will most likely be an approved Bitcoin exchange with massive liquidity where the coins will be converted to USD and sent to the Treasury rather than having an auction. |
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Timeline:
1) Large Buyers are slowly accumulating Bitcoin as exchange depth allows, trying not to run the price up on themselves while they try to fill their accounts to their planned levels of exposure.
2) They find out about the SR Seized Coin auction. Some may have found out before the public announcement.
3) They stop buying on exchanges and save their funds for later bids at the auction.
[ ... ]
No sane manager would change his firm's financial strategy on account of the possibility of winning a closed-bid auction -- especially one where every moderately rich bitcoin enthusiast in the world can bid. The chances of winning such an auction with a financially responsible bid price are way too small. From a business perspective, bidding at such auctions is an opportunistic activity: winning would be great, but one must be prepared to lose many times before scoring a win -- or even to lose every time. Irrelevant. Every single bidder that showed up at this auction has funds reserved for a bid of at least 1 lot of 3,000 coins. Many have funds for more, and some for all lots. Many losing bidders will be left without coins. At some point these bidders made the decision to be buyers of Bitcoin. This decision is unlikely to change as a result of this auction. So we can expect most of the buyers to move their bids elsewhere rather than remove them entirely. This is a great deal more purchasing power than is required for the purchase of these <30K coins. |
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Timeline:
1) Large Buyers are slowly accumulating Bitcoin as exchange depth allows, trying not to run the price up on themselves while they try to fill their accounts to their planned levels of exposure.
2) They find out about the SR Seized Coin auction. Some may have found out before the public announcement.
3) They stop buying on exchanges and save their funds for later bids at the auction. This would correspond to a lack of buying, as some here have seen in their analysis for the past few weeks.
4) Someone wins the auction, but most bidders do not get all of their bids filled. The losers find out some time between end of auction 6/27 6PM EST and 6/30 5PM EST.
5) Losers begin slowly accumulating Bitcoin on exchanges again until reaching their planned level of exposure.
We are between #3 and #4. The next step will be bullish.
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Personally i prefer Ghash because they offer a userfriendly website. I can automatically split the income between several wallets for example.
And most mining pools offer apps to check your hasrate on your phone or on a google chrome plugin. So you don't have to check all the time if your miner is still running.
If those things would be created for P2P to make P2P as userfriendly as Ghash than personally i would love to join P2P. But ight now it's just too much of a hassle.
How about listen to the actual miner who commented here? It sounds like money needs to be spent to making mining for P2Pool the easiest, slickest, smoothest way to go. That would suggest to me that donations would be better spent paying developers to implement the kind of interface that miners want. Something that reduces their headaches. It makes sense that large pools would have the resources to provide this kind of thing whereas P2P being a decentralized open source tool probably still requires the command line to get running. What we need is the Ubuntu (company) for P2Pool. Presumably whoever created P2Pool had a motivation that also encompasses seeing miners actually adopt it. If so, that motivation should translate into development on such features if they believe these features are needed to further adoption of P2Pool. |
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Seriously, at this point, what event could lead to a "bitcoin is dead" consensus again, say over the course of 1 year?
On a scale of 0 to 100, my risk factors are something like this:
Satoshi coins - .001% probability or less, impact 10, duration 3 = .0003
ECDSA vulnerability - .01% or less, impact 10, duration 2 = .002
Implementation vulnerability - 1% or less, impact 8, duration 1 = .008
Bitstamp defection - .1% or less, impact 8, duration 2 = .016
Social apocalypse - 1% or less, impact 6, duration 10 = .6
Mining centralization - 5% or less, impact 5, duration 5 = 1.25
Nuclear war - 2% or less, impact 8, duration 10 = 1.6
US AML Fungibility crisis - 20% or less, impact 9, duration 10 = 18
unknown unknown - NaN
Relevant https://bitcoinfoundation.org/blog/wp-content/uploads/2014/04/Bitcoin-Risk-Management-Study-Spring-2014.pdfExcellent find. This is very comprehensive. Great job Blitz. |
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I can't wait to see what happens when the big stash of coins from DPR go to auction (if this happens at all).
We'll probably drop to 100 for 2 months while waiting for the event to happen. Based on what happened this week.
I might get my coins out of cold storage for that one.
Won't happen. Seized foreign currencies are immediately turned to USD on an approved exchange and sent to the Treasury. By the time this court case is over there will be an approved Bitcoin exchange, and more than enough liquidity to absorb the coins. |
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The miners would not sell on lose, at least the smarter ones, so we know that most of the miners are holding at least half of the mined coins for an eventual bubble.
If they are smart, they would have known it would be cheaper to buy coin directly rather than to mine for it. Miners are miners, not neceserly investors. Many miners confuse profit from speculation with profit from mining. "If BTC goes down such that mining is unprofitable, we can hold the mined coins until it goes back up" is heard often. But this is illogical. Shut off the miners at that point and simply buy the coins you would have mined. You will pay less than it costs to run the miners. This will also serve to prop up the market such that the mining profitability point will serve as massive support line. |
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My only lament is I don't have more fiat to throw at Bitcoin before Wall Street hits. This will be the Bitcoin singularity. Once it happens, there will be no cheap Bitcoins, ever. In fact, I anticipate the massive volatility will die down as well. Market depth will be quite a bit larger.
Imo, Wall Streets involvment will not itself be the "singular" event. I don't think Wall Street is just going to take bitcoin prices to the moon. Afterall, wall street buys hype, but they sell hype too. However, Wall Street investment will signal the exchanges of the world and for the first time set a global precedent for bitcoin trading. As a result, a larger positive feedback loop can have the potential to occur, where exchanges around the world in major international hubs develop, feeding more innovation and positive press. Bitcoin will be legitimized once and for all in the financial community. Once this happens, the feedback loop could carry the prices to much larger degrees. By singularity I meant something like an event horizon. |
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I think this is kind of what separates the real traders from (most of us), hm, "enthusiastic amateurs" ... I had to look up what a "Bloomberg Terminal" is, a few days ago. When I saw the price, I wasn't exactly surprised, but had to conclude that for the time being, I won't need one  315 000 subscribers at 24000$ per year, holly shit. Yep. That's $7.5 billion dollars per year in Bloomberg subscription fees alone from this investment community. Now how much do you think they can spare to get their feet wet in Bitcoin? Don't even talk like this. We all know that Wall Street has no interest in Bitcoin.  Can you believe Wall Street pays the current market cap of Bitcoin every year in platform subscription fees? |
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My only lament is I don't have more fiat to throw at Bitcoin before Wall Street hits. This will be the Bitcoin singularity. Once it happens, there will be no cheap Bitcoins, ever. In fact, I anticipate the massive volatility will die down as well. Market depth will be quite a bit larger.
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I think this is kind of what separates the real traders from (most of us), hm, "enthusiastic amateurs" ... I had to look up what a "Bloomberg Terminal" is, a few days ago. When I saw the price, I wasn't exactly surprised, but had to conclude that for the time being, I won't need one 315 000 subscribers at 24000$ per year, holly shit. Yep. That's $7.5 billion dollars per year in Bloomberg subscription fees alone from this investment community. Now how much do you think they can spare to get their feet wet in Bitcoin? |
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This increase has been led by Huobi.
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It's pretty easy to hold here. It gets more difficult to hold as the price goes up.
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The 1-hour chart is going parabolic.
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Hey matt, what do you think about a crypto that was only traded for gold or something (meaning the users would not trade it for Fiat). I know it has many flaws (hard to divide a piece of gold for a fraction of a bitcoin). I made a thread similar to this subject (a few days ago in this spec forum and had slight discussions about this (on other threads here).
I personally think it probably would not work because people would just break the rules and exchange for fiat (and gold is too hard to break up and exchange for the cryptos)
If you mean a virtual currency backed by real gold. Been there, done that, and it failed spectacularly: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/E-goldThat wiki page is a fascinating read; especially the part where they indicate the definition of money transmitter was broadened by the Patriot Act to include the transmission of anything of value. The government used that newly expanded definition to go after E-Gold as an illegal money transmitter. I would assume that new definition is still in place in our current days of Bitcoin. |
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