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1341  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: How world wide is bitcoin on: August 07, 2012, 07:03:01 PM
coolest map EVER!

if that could be my screen-saver...
1342  Economy / Securities / Re: [GLBSE]BitCoin Mining Investments "Not A Bond" on: August 07, 2012, 06:49:17 PM
Looks good, I'll buy a share and see what happens Smiley
1343  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Altcoin Discussion / Re: AndLTC Miner! (Android LTC Miner)| PlayStore | Updated v0.51 07/22/12 on: August 07, 2012, 06:46:17 PM
Simran, keep up the good spreadsheeting!  I want to know which phones are the most productive, definitely keeping an eye on this.
1344  Other / Off-topic / Re: Just stumbled on this... on: August 07, 2012, 05:02:16 PM
wait, so to win the contest, you would have to have donated the 'most' shares to their account? 

"new contest!  who can donate me the most money in 1 month.. GO!"
1345  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Altcoin Discussion / Re: AndLTC Miner! (Android LTC Miner)| PlayStore | Updated v0.51 07/22/12 on: August 07, 2012, 04:29:31 PM
This is so cool.  Cellphone has a broken screen?  Make it hash until it buys you a new phone!
1346  Bitcoin / Project Development / Re: BAMT - Easy persistent USB key based linux for dedicated miners/mining farms on: August 07, 2012, 04:15:20 PM
Generous request...

Can someone host BAMT0.4 along with all their fixes?

I find BAMT0.5 to be too unstable. I regret to upgrade to BAMT0.5.



Available here:

http://www.bitcointrading.com/forum/index.php?topic=416.msg1785#msg1785

Upload is a bit on the slow side, I will be adding a mirror this week hopefully.  I planned on releasing 0.4, 0.5c, 0.5a64, and the 'new version' together in a torrent shortly.

I don't have the 0.4 fixes...
1347  Economy / Securities / Re: [GLBSE] BitcoinTrading.com Canada 6/49 Lottery Mining Company on: August 07, 2012, 08:39:16 AM
Sorry, but THIS is (another) fatal flaw:

Difficulty follows BTC price, never the other way round!

Think of it like gold mining:
You have a mine where it costs 100 USD to mine 1g of gold and another mine where it costs 500 USD.

If you start mining at the 500 USD mine, the gold price will NOT magically jump upwards - actually, you're dumping MORE gold on the market, so it might go down!
If the gold price though increases to 1000 USD per g, then it makes sense to mine at the 500 USD mine too.

About the topic in question:
I already read weeks ago about the idea to purchase shares in lottery gambling system offers ("companies" that buy e.g. 1000 tickets and distribute all earnings to the people who gave them the money for these 1000 tickets) - still lotteries have usually huge markups between funds raised and prizes paid. It would make more sense imho to play on Bitlotto (as the currency conversion risk - another fatal flaw - is eliminated) or even Satoshi's Dice...

About lottery systems paying more than single tips: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lotto_649 seems to be a lottery where you can choose your numbers. This means (since people buying lottery tickets are not smart in the first place) that the distribution of numbers played is NOT uniform (betting on birthdays...), the distribution of numbers drawn however hopefully is. this way a smart lottery player will pick less preferred numbers, so in the event that actually a win occurs, the earnings are higher, since he has to share with fewer people.

Still: 6/49 (as all other lotteries) will have a much larger operator cut than Satoshi's Dice, Bitlotto et al - so the expected earnings over a longer time are even worse.
So difficulty follows price?  So the higher the price gets, the higher the difficulty, lowering the profits but increasing the profits at the same time with the higher price.  The higher the price gets, the more the existing funds "increase value" because they are stored in bitcoin.

We just need to be holding bitcoin at the time when the price goes up.

If price and difficulty do not change, then we will definitely be able to sustain this model with these profits.  Do you think the difficulty is going to go down any time soon?
1348  Economy / Securities / Re: [GLBSE] BitcoinTrading.com Canada 6/49 Lottery Mining Company on: August 07, 2012, 07:47:54 AM
Take a peek at this spreadsheet.

http://www.bitcointrading.com/files/BitcoinTrading649LottoMiningCompanyv1.xlsx (excel 07+)
http://www.bitcointrading.com/files/BitcoinTrading649LottoMiningCompanyv1.xls (excel 97-03)

I put this together in like an hour, there may be errors, but its just for estimation.

The darker columns are formulas.  Lighter columns are user-input.

I didn't put much thought into which mining companies, how the difficulty would change, etc in the calculation.  I made it decrease the amount of BTC over time, but since the Bitcoin exchange rate closely follows the difficulty, the higher the difficulty means higher value of Bitcoins, company assets go up in value.

Each "page" of the spreadsheet is a scenario.  Dial in your own settings to see how you think it will play out.

Note that in my calculations "winnings" and "prizes" are not mentioned, I assume we lose 100% of the time and still maintain a profit, but we are playing 6/49 "for free" from profits of investments, for the chance that we win it big. 

If 200 people out there invest 1 BTC, I think we can make this happen. 

Who out there thinks that 1 Bitcoin is going to be worth <$11 next year?  What about 2 years from now?  We have a much better chance at the exchange rate going up than we do winning the lottery.  So investing 'long' in Bitcoin is a safe bet, and investing in Bitcoin will net us free lottery tickets forever.
1349  Economy / Securities / Re: [GLBSE] BitcoinTrading.com Canada 6/49 Lottery Mining Company on: August 07, 2012, 07:03:57 AM
This is how I envision the 7500 BTC investment going:



Assuming Bitcoin increases by 1% per day in value, and the exchange rate is $10 today.  Not another ticket is sold.  1500 BTC invested into mining companies.  Profits from mining companies is added to the "balance" column, the spreadsheet is wider than the picture.

"CDN" is the value of the coins in Canadian Dollars. 

"Weeks" is the number of times we can run a 3-month ticket ($50).

A 7500 BTC would give us more profit per-day than we need to operate per-week. 
1350  Economy / Securities / Re: [GLBSE] BitcoinTrading.com Canada 6/49 Lottery Mining Company on: August 07, 2012, 06:44:50 AM
The only surety is that you will lose money. Your fund X can be compared to another fund Y, where X and Y are defined as:

X: 80% is invested into a pool with negative long term odds (called X.a) and 20% is invested into Z (called X.b).
Y: 100% is invested into Z.

X.a's long term performance can be modelled by the formula "the limit of BTC*(odds^n) as n goes to infinity for any odds". In other words if you win 1x your money 99% of the time, that 1% will kill you, long term you will lose 1% of your money each time you play and X.a (the lottery pool) will go to zero. The X.a component of your fund is guarnteed to be a gaping black hole. I call it the bitcoin motel; bitcoins go in, but they don't come out.

For example, you find a game with really amazing house odds; 99.9% of the time you get your money back. Ok so you play this game 500 times with 500 BTC. What happens? 500 x 0.999^500 = 303.19 bitcoins. Boom.

Now for the bad news. According to analysis, 6/49 has a payout of around 45.62%. So let's see what will happen to your investor's money: You have a successful IPO, say, 7,500 bitcoins. You invest 6,000 BTC into lotto 6/49. After one round, this is worth approx. 2737 bitcoins. After a second round, it is worth 1248. Five more rounds later, you don't even have 25 bitcoins left. And all you did is buy seven rounds of lottery tickets with the IPO funds.

Anyone investing in this would be insane. You wouldn't even need to buy lottery tickets. Just pretend you did and keep the money.

In short, "(X.a + X.b) < Y", guaranteed, no one should ever invest in this fund because it will always lose money compared to investing in anything else. Even if you threw X.b into pirate the whole thing would return less than just buying a mining stock over time. This is pretty much guaranteed. If you pay more than that, you are just returning capital to investors. You will never be able to escape the equation for X.a no matter how hard you try to hide it. Sad

Ah, see I think you are slightly mistaken on one fact, we will not buy a proportionate amount of tickets to the number of shares sold.  We aim to purchase at a steady pace of one 25-draw ticket per week.  This way the maximum amount spent is 4.5 BTC per week (currently), but that number will decrease as bitcoins go up in value.  

If we have an IPO of 7500 BTC, we would essentially be "set for life" for purchasing lottery tickets.  Even if we never sold another share after that.  Since 1500 BTC would go into shares in mining companies, we would be able to sustain future tickets with the proceeds of mining.  

Right now, it's like 20 BTC per month to run a new set of 25-draw tickets every week.  When we are just starting, we can only spend 5 BTC per month, and always keep a minimum balance.

So there would be 6000 BTC left in the lottery pool from day one after purchasing all the shares in other lottery companies.  Surely we will get other shares sold down the road, but let's assume there arn't any other shares, just this initial investment (shares sold out).  

By the time we have spent 240 BTC, an entire year would have passed.  In that time, we would have mined many BTC since we are constantly receiving dividends.  Right now people are estimating that Bitcoin price could be as high as $30 again this summer, perhaps much higher.  Putting the remaining 5760 BTC (after purchasing lottery tickets all year) in a very "long" Bitcoin investing strategy, by the next year, we might only need to spend 60 BTC per year on tickets.  The price of a lottery ticket keeps reducing over the course of time, and we are spending the money at a slow enough pace, that it could reach a point where the tickets are basically purchased infinitely. 

It all depends on the initial investment.  We just basically have to reach a minimum balance.
1351  Economy / Securities / Re: [GLBSE] BitcoinTrading.com Canada 6/49 Lottery Mining Company on: August 07, 2012, 03:32:06 AM
I am charmed by the mention of 6/49 but I can't begin to express what a terrible idea this is.

We definately do not need anything at all which leads people to believe that investing in stocks (and especially investing on the GLBSE) amounts to a lottery ticket. Let's be honest, all of your real profits are slated to come from lottery tickets. And let's be honest, the house always wins long term. IIRC gambling isn't allowed on the GLBSE. This is a nice idea in some ways but it just should never be allowed to actually list.

If you want to run a lottery pool, there are other forums (lending, gambling, etc.) -- the securities forum is a really bad place to do this in.
But surely there must be a point in which the amount of assets owned by a company produces enough interest or profits to "afford" to buy a lottery ticket for every draw? 
1352  Economy / Securities / Re: [GLBSE] BitcoinTrading.com Canada 6/49 Lottery Mining Company on: August 07, 2012, 02:44:25 AM
This asset is -EV for everybody except the issuer who can do huge insider trading.  I'd advise everyone to stay away.
Insider trading.. but all of the information is public.. and what do you mean by -EV?
1353  Economy / Securities / Re: [GLBSE] BitcoinTrading.com Canada 6/49 Lottery Mining Company on: August 07, 2012, 02:19:06 AM
Why are you linking to a post which I already quoted that very post and commented below it? 

Mining bitcoins is similar to a lottery, clearly it's a game of "luck" and the more hashpower is put towards a pool, the better chance they have at winning.  This is an OBVIOUS thing to mention, thanks pyramining! 

By the way to those who are reading this, OZLOTTO posted the thread that pyramining has linked to only a matter of hours after the original posting on BitcoinTrading.com, notice how the general idea is the same except BitcoinTrading.com has a 2-page contract and OZLOTTO has only a few fragmented sentences.  I wasn't going to officially post it on bitcointalk until we were publicly available but apparently you can copy someones business model and post it with a moments consideration. 
1354  Economy / Securities / Re: [GLBSE] OZLOTTO on: August 07, 2012, 02:11:32 AM
My posts in this thread are an illusion.
1355  Economy / Securities / Re: [GLBSE] OZLOTTO on: August 07, 2012, 01:47:54 AM
bitcoin.me are you refusing to comment on the fact that your "lottery company" idea was taken from me?
1356  Economy / Securities / Re: [GLBSE] OZLOTTO on: August 07, 2012, 01:42:01 AM
Mc_lovin (but maybe this applies also to bitcoin.me), it's funny that you want to invest into mining companies and at the same time partecipating into lottery.

Mining is a very fast lottery, every hash calculated is a ticket, and if you win, you get 50 BTC.

Lottery is the same, much more slower, with the difference that money you put in is less than money you get.

It's like mining with extremely high electricity costs (higher than revenues).

Does it make sense?
Yes, but lotteries provide a chance at a big win.
1357  Economy / Securities / [GLBSE] BitcoinTrading.com Canada 6/49 Lottery Mining Company on: August 07, 2012, 01:34:02 AM

Here is the current version of the company pitch.  Subject to revisions.  Click here for the official thread.

-----------------

BitcoinTrading.com Canada 6/49 Lottery Mining Company

Date: August 6th, 2012

Hello!  I am proud to present to you: The BitcoinTrading.com Canada 6/49 Lottery Mining Company. 

I always dream about winning the lottery, and I have come up with a way that we can do it together by pooling our resources together.  This new company will run a lottery pool and a portion of the shares sold will go towards shares in mining companies for long-term ticket purchasing sustainability.  When there are winnings, they get paid out to shareholders of The BitcoinTrading.com Canada 6/49 Lottery Mining Company.  When you buy a share, you are getting a share in the company, not an individual lottery ticket or a portion of one. 

Funds received from shares sold will used to both purchase shares in trusted Bitcoin mining companies on GLBSE.com and pay for the lottery operations.  The Bitcoin received from shares sold will be split in this manner:
  20% invested in shares of GLBSE.com mining companies
  80% invested in the lottery pool

The Bitcoin received from the dividends that mining companies pay to The BitcoinTrading.com Canada 6/49 Lottery Mining Company will be paid into the lottery pool.  This way the lottery pool has a sustainable source of income.

Here is some information about the lottery pool which the company will be running:
The advantage of a lottery in Canada as opposed to the United States is that we don’t pay taxes on prizes.  In the US, almost half is paid back to the government.  More information about the lottery here: http://www.wclc.com/games/lotto_649.html

It costs $2 per draw per 6 numbers.  The maximum number of draws for one ticket is 25 draws, so we can pay for 25 draws in advance on one ticket.  That’s about 3 months, and would cost $50. 

The lottery pool will aim to buy one 25-draw ticket per week, since the tickets are good for 3 months, we will have an increasing amount of tickets in each draw.  If the lottery pool has enough funds, we will purchase multiple 25-draw tickets each week.  The lottery pool will purchase a 25-draw ticket each week if the price ($50 CDN) represents 10% of the total funds held by the company and its lottery pool, not including assets in Bitcoin mining companies as “share value” but the proceeds from them will go to the lottery pool.  This rule is being set to limit the number of tickets purchased if our funds are low. Each ticket will be drawn for 3 months, so we will still have tickets in the lottery (we need to buy a minimum of one 25-draw ticket every 3 months).  We will purchase tickets less frequently if necessary.

All of the information about the assets that the company has will be posted on www.bitcointrading.com each week, plus an update on the amount of profit received from Bitcoin mining companies and if there are any winnings, scans of the tickets as well if necessary.  All information will be public, including the current account balances of the company, reserving the right to make this information only available to shareholders at a later date.  A dedicated website for this will be created in the future. 

The lottery pool winnings will be distributed as follows:
70% of winnings paid directly to shareholders through GLBSE.com as Bitcoin
25% of winnings put back towards the lottery pool as Bitcoin
5% of winning kept by operator as Bitcoin

The company will keep a maximum amount of company funds in Bitcoin, due to its currently very bright outlook, a Bitcoin could double or triple in value very soon.  To pay for tickets, we will sell some Bitcoins on the exchanges.  The price of a Lotto 6/49 ticket goes down each time the price of Bitcoin goes up.  If the lottery pool has a large amount of money in Bitcoins, and the price keeps rising over months and years, then the tickets get cheaper.   

When there are winnings of the lottery pool, they are paid to the company in Canadian dollars, to be converted to Bitcoin and then distributed.  If the amount is small (under $100), the prize will be paid out from the company funds instantly and then the winnings will be converted on the exchange to Bitcoin.  If the prize is over $100, the winnings will first be converted to Bitcoin on the exchange, and then paid out.  The current plan is to choose numbers for the lottery based on the latest hash of the most recent Bitcoin block solved.
10,000 shares issued initially, more issued if those are all sold.  The price of each share is 1 BTC.
The share is a portion of the assets the company has, which will be
1) Any funds the company possesses, in Bitcoin from shares sold
2) Any funds the company possesses, in Canadian dollars (if any)
3) Any proceeds from the company lottery pool
4) A portion of shares held of other Bitcoin mining companies

A shareholder in this company does not have voting rights.  This company does not include any other assets owned by BitcoinTrading.com.

In the event that the GLBSE.com website goes offline permanently, all assets will be liquidated and paid out to shareholders.  Shareholders would be able to contact BitcoinTrading.com in that event.

IPO date announced soon.

maplesyrupghost (on bitcointrading.com)
mc_lovin (on bitcointalk.org)
1358  Economy / Securities / Re: [GLBSE] OZLOTTO on: August 07, 2012, 01:19:25 AM
It's funny you have this idea only hours after I post mine.

http://www.bitcointrading.com/forum/index.php?topic=958.msg1856#msg1856

Already submitted for approval, and the current version of the company should be approved according to Nefario's post above.

Side note, you last logged into my forum August 5th at 10PM.  That means you "happened" to see it on my forum and I will now consider you to be an idea stealer.
1359  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: If national firewalls go up on: August 06, 2012, 10:22:34 PM
Well if they can't stop bittorrent, just release the blockchain updates on torrent Smiley
1360  Economy / Computer hardware / Re: Macbook Pro Retina 15" *SEALED* - Below Retail - Escrow on: August 06, 2012, 09:44:38 PM
I'm sure he will Clean you of your Coins Wink
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