According to an old Wall Street saying, "Financial markets are driven by two powerful emotions, greed and fear." The same applies to Bitcoin, in a highly volatile free market, if you ignore the fundamentals and rely on short-term profits, FUD happens, fear happens, instant reaction is to sell at whatever price. Panic sellers.
Good thing, greed or a better term, hope. A panic seller's loss is another hopeful person's gain who relies on fundamentals and has a broader long-term view.
The Chinese FUD ain't over yet.
Financial markets are heavily influenced these days by trading algorithms and bots - two things that don´t have emotions like greed and fear and never panic. Financial markets therefore have changed tremendously in the last 20 years and are not comparable at all to the traditional financial markets at the beginning of the 20th century. Influence and outcome is different. Did the bot invest or did the bot set the stop-loss? Finance is the same, 20th or 21st century, you see a loss, you cut loose at a loss or even. You see a growth overtime, you stick, basics. Nothing to do with bots, strings are still humanly, fear, greed/hope. |
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According to an old Wall Street saying, "Financial markets are driven by two powerful emotions, greed and fear." The same applies to Bitcoin, in a highly volatile free market, if you ignore the fundamentals and rely on short-term profits, FUD happens, fear happens, instant reaction is to sell at whatever price. Panic sellers.
Good thing, greed or a better term, hope. A panic seller's loss is another hopeful person's gain who relies on fundamentals and has a broader long-term view.
The Chinese FUD ain't over yet.
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... or am I being unreasonably pessimistic?
I only joined this forum a week or so ago and I'm loving it, all the different topics, all the different opinions and views. I think I'm in danger of getting the 'investing in crypto' bug and I'm gradually gearing up to dipping my toe, probably in BTC and ETH.
However, hold on a sec. This forum, understandably, is full of people that buy into the concept of cryptocurrency, have invested various sums, trade in the stuff and so on. My point? Everyone on here wants to see the value of cryptocurrency rise ... and rise ... and rise.
None of us have a crystal ball, if we did we'd be multi billionaires, however as much as I like the projected idea of BTC being worth <insert very high monitory value here> in 5-10 years, is this sort of projection valid? Are we perhaps seeing an expected slowing down and perhaps even slight plateauing of BTC and an end to significant increases week by week?
As I say everyone on here quite rightly want to see the likes of BTC increase exponentially over the coming years, however we're all excited by the whole crypto thing. Are we therefore at risk of looking at the whole thing through rose tinted glasses, basing our hopes on the increases of the last few years that, surely, can't continue?
Am I right ... or wrong?
If Bitcoin didn't had any potential, it would have been long dead. Bitcoin has crossed the chasm between early adopters and early majority. The current Bitcoin adoption and the current demand reflects its price. The demand we have now is to an extent speculative in nature, but when long-term assumptions or predictions are made, it is not merely based on speculation, but Bitcoins utility as a store of value and a medium of exchange. According to Satoshi Nakamoto. A rational market price for something that is expected to increase in value will already reflect the present value of the expected future increases. In your head, you do a probability estimate balancing the odds that it keeps increasing. Apart from being a store of value and medium of exchange, Bitcoin solves the problems of inflation, expropriation, taxes, financial repression and cross-border transactions. So basically the futuristic price of Bitcoin is dependent on its usefulness and the problems it solves. Is the current price a reflection of the expected future increases. Yes, to an extent because Bitcoin has yet to evolve as a reliable medium of exchange, so it is an undervalued reflection. So there is a rationale when people assume that Bitcoin price would increase in future. |
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I try to apply but they don't accept my faucet and I don' have any Idea how much they will pay for click. If you know please share.
Bitmedia is a high quality Bitcoin ad network. They don't accept generic faucets. They do make exceptions for hybrid faucets, faucet + game sites having good quality traffic. Based on the source of traffic, they used to pay around 7000-20000 satoshis per click. It has decreased now, but still compared to other ad networks their rates are better. Coinzilla also offers a high CPC, next Mellowads, PPCadmedia is also good. |
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The ideology behind BitcoinThe root problem with conventional currency is all the trust that's required to make it work. The central bank must be trusted not to debase the currency, but the history of fiat currencies is full of breaches of that trust. Banks must be trusted to hold our money and transfer it electronically, but they lend it out in waves of credit bubbles with barely a fraction in reserve. We have to trust them with our privacy, trust them not to let identity thieves drain our accounts. Their massive overhead costs make micropayments impossible.
With e-currency based on cryptographic proof, without the need to trust a third party middleman, money can be secure and transactions effortless. - Satoshi Nakamoto The Times 03/Jan/2009 Chancellor on brink of second bailout for banks - Genesis Block So the fundamental ideology is a decentralized trustless system to create an economy not dependant on governments/banks, empower repressed economies, disrupt or weaken the centralized monetary system, and economic freedom. Something like what John Holloway said, "Changing the world without taking power." I think majority of the early adopters were motivated by this philosophy, price wasn't a criteria. The technology behind BitcoinThere is no denying the fact that Bitcoin/Blockchain technology is revolutionary. It is here to stay. We will be seeing more use cases of it in future. The first distributed blockchain was conceptualised by Satoshi Nakamoto and was implemented as a core component in Bitcoin and thus making Bitcoin a technological tour de force. Technology is one of the major reasons for Bitcoin adoption. MonetaryThe monetary aspect is profit. Adopt Bitcoin for making money. I do believe that a good number of recent investors/speculators are in for money only. Leave aside ideology, even a few doesn't bother about the technological aspect. Nothing wrong in it. It is like a get-rich-quick-scheme. So why did you adopt Bitcoin? There might be a reason or a couple of reasons or all the three. Edit: Added all of the above.
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Is the noble bitcoin selfish in wealth distribution ?
The generations of 2009-2012 owns most the bitcoin wealth, to be followed by 2013-2017 generation... what would the 2021, 2040 and 2074 generations think of us?
It is not about unfair/selfish, it is about adoption. A new technology/innovation has five types of adopters, innovators, early adopters, early majority, late majority, and laggards. You take any scenario, be it new tech assets, startups, emerging markets and corporate products, the innovators and early adopters have a substantial advantage because they were quick enough to understand the potential behind it and took a major risk by adopting an unproven technology/innovation. Some early adopters have large numbers of bitcoins because they took risks and invested time and resources in an unproven technology that was hardly used by anyone and that was much harder to secure properly. Many early adopters spent large numbers of bitcoins quite a few times before they became valuable or bought only small amounts and didn't make huge gains. There is no guarantee that the price of a bitcoin will increase or drop. This is very similar to investing in an early startup that can either gain value through its usefulness and popularity, or just never break through. Bitcoin is still in its infancy, and it has been designed with a very long-term view; it is hard to imagine how it could be less biased towards early adopters, and today's users may or may not be the early adopters of tomorrow.
Bitcoin is divisible up to 8 decimal units, it can be further changed if need arises. The last Bitcoin would be mined around 2140, still enough room for everyone to adopt. https://bitcoin.org/en/faq#doesnt-bitcoin-unfairly-benefit-early-adoptershttps://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Technology_adoption_life_cycle |
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A rational market price for something that is expected to increase in value will already reflect the present value of the expected future increases. In your head, you do a probability estimate balancing the odds that it keeps increasing.
In the absence of a market to establish the price, NewLibertyStandard's estimate based on production cost is a good guess and a helpful service (thanks). The price of any commodity tends to gravitate toward the production cost. If the price is below cost, then production slows down. If the price is above cost, profit can be made by generating and selling more. At the same time, the increased production would increase the difficulty, pushing the cost of generating towards the price.
In later years, when new coin generation is a small percentage of the existing supply, market price will dictate the cost of production more than the other way around.
At the moment, generation effort is rapidly increasing, suggesting people are estimating the present value to be higher than the current cost of production.
1. As difficulty increases, the cost of production would increase, thus gravitating the production cost towards the price. 2. Market price dictating the cost of production. Limited supply and as the demand for Bitcoin increases, price increases to keep the cost of production lower than the market price. Yeah, if Bitcoin price drops considerably then difficulty would decrease to meet the cost of production. Mining is a competitive industry. Even with increasing difficulty miners would find a way to remain profitable through cheap electricity, renewable resources, and more efficient equipments. Another worthless article. |
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A government backed cryptocurrency might increase the efficiency of a centralized financial system, but is it going to have any impact on Bitcoin? No. The concept behind a centralized cryptocurrency is the same as the concept behind cash, just digitalized tokens of Fiat money. Unlimited supply, same old flawed monetary system, backed by the government, and still prone to hyperinflation.
The ideology behind Bitcoin as a cryptocurrency is a decentralized, apolitical, permissionless, trustless system. It offers an alternative to people who have lost faith in the flawed monetary system. Representing Fiat as cryptocurrency isn't going to change the underlying flaw.
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Why adbit.biz take huge fee. I think it was not fair for us.
Minimum withdrawal is 0.002 and a withdrawal fee of 0.0009. That's half of your earnings in fee. Adbit is one of the oldest Bitcoin ad networks and it was good, but after it was acquired by the BitRush network, the withdrawal fees has increased. Either withdraw after accumulating around 0.005 or replace their ads with a-ads, Coinmedia or Bitcoset. |
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People began using Bitcoin in 2009 because it solved problems of the existing money and banking system: inflation, expropriation, taxes, use restrictions, financial repression and fees, especially for small and cross-border transactions. The economic value of these services serves as the underlying base of value, just like the value of tulip bulbs supported the tulip futures contracts. But bitcoin became monetized and its value far exceeds the current use value in transactions. Its value is now based on projected future need for protection against the problems it solves. If this be fraud, all money is fraud.Asking a bank CEO what he thinks of bitcoin is like asking the head of the post office what he thinks of e-mail.
Dimon compared bitcoin to tulips, which is accurate, though not in the way he intended. What he failed to realize is that people were not paying for single flowers, but for the entire breeding stock -- or a significant portion of it -- of popular new tulip varieties. People have continued to pay higher inflation-adjusted prices for new tulip and lily bulbs to this day.
Dimon went on to claim that governments would suppress bitcoin because they like to control their own monetary policy. This is a strange objection. It seems to assume bitcoin will increase dramatically in value, because it would have to in order to be significant in global money supply.
A better reason for governments to suppress cryptocurrencies is that they make it easier for people to evade taxes and regulations. Many of the advantages of a cryptocurrency from a user’s standpoint are disadvantages to people who want to control users. Cash is a far better tool for evasion, and no government has yet outlawed cash -- or even stopped printing it. The most financially repressive governments have not taken effective action against cryptocurrencies. Any efforts to suppress simultaneously make cryptocurrencies more valuable.
Bitcoin values may well collapse the way tulip futures did, either on their own or due to government efforts. But the problems cryptocurrencies address will not disappear with that collapse. People will continue to pursue technological innovations to improve financial services. The eventual winners may be traditional financial institutions that innovate or new entrants. But it’s a safe bet they will not be financial institutions that fire employees who take bitcoin seriously and ridicule customers who try to help themselves without waiting for JPMorgan to take notice of their problems. https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2017-09-18/what-jamie-dimon-got-wrong-about-bitcoin-and-tulips |
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Thanks fpr your reply krishnapramod,
any suggestion on the best wallet between the ones at no-fee? I mean, is there anyone of this that is clearly better than the others or they are pretty much the same?
Thanks!
Xapo and Coinbase are pretty much the same. For an incoming bitcoin transaction of less than 0.00042487 Xapo charges a processing fee of 0.00028325 and the current standard fee for an outgoing transaction is 0.0006409. Not suitable for accumulating microearnings. Coinpot only has around six faucets so if you are also using Faucethub faucets then withdraw your Coinpot earnings to Faucethub, accumulate, withdraw to your Bitcoin address. |
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hi everyone!
is it possible to transfer between different coinpot accts?
i don't see that as an option in the list of possible withdrawals method.
thanks!
No, it is not possible to transfer funds between Coinpot accounts. ePay had that option, internal offchain transactions. You can directly withdraw your funds to your bitcoin address without any fee if the amount is more than 0.0005. To Xapo, Coinbase, SpectroCoin, or Mellowads without any fee. To other microwallets with a fee, 1.5% for Faucethub, 2% for Faucetsystem. |
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As Chinese-based bitcoin exchanges plan to shut down, bitcoin investors are taking their trading elsewhere. They will now focus on broker-facilitated, over-the-counter exchanges. Prior to exchange shutdown notices, most traders conducted OTC exchanges on Weechat messenger. As a result of government crackdowns on Weechat users, bitcoiners have made an exodus over to privacy-centric messaging app Telegram.
A surge of traders have now moved to Telegram for its encryption protocols. They should now be able to disregard government as they continue to trade and speculate on various cryptocurrencies.
It appears this investor pivot to secret OTC trading, foreshadows how underground bitcoin Chinese Investors to Trade Bitcoin Over-The-Counter Via Telegram trading may manifest in China. In this sense, it is unlikely bitcoin or cryptocurrency will be harmed in the long term. The resiliency of the technology will emerge while under duress from the Chinese government.
Even though Bitcoin will survive regardless of what happens — there are a myriad of unverified reports coming out of China that authorities may block certain bitcoin sites.
It is good to keep in mind that these reports are unverified, and they could, in part, be “fake news.” Nonetheless, it is clear the Chinese government is clamping down on cryptocurrencies, but traders appear to be unfazed as they maneuver to access underground and OTC trading networks. https://news.bitcoin.com/chinese-investors-to-trade-bitcoin-over-the-counter-via-telegram/https://data.bitcoinity.org/markets/volume/30d/CNY/localbitcoins?r=day&t=b |
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Anyone who thought China would be a friend to Bitcoin was delusional.
This was always anticipated.
This is the beginning of birth pains.
This is when the actual experiment begins.
Agreed, China has crazy monetary policies, and they do NOT want their citizens taking money out of the country. This was inevitable. That being said, this won't stop the Chinese from using Bitcoin for that purpose, it will just go underground. I agree, it will go underground and that is where the real tests and creativity will be. Even if their government is able to monitor and control internet traffic for the purpose of restricting Bitcoin transmission or whatever, they will not be able to stop loaded OpenDime devices and other such things. When this occurs, we may all hear and read about Chinese citizens returning from abroad with dozens of loaded OneDimes up their anuses. Then, they will not only smuggle drugs in for entertainment, but bitcoins for freedom from oppression. The question then becomes, which will receive the more severe punishment? Drugs or Freedom? People may not wish to die for drugs, but some shall for Freedom.That is quite a revolutionary perspective, ideology. If China completely bans Bitcoin then that definitely would be a heavy blow to Bitcoin. So far Bitcoin has survived quite a lot of obstacles, be it internal politics or attacks by prominent individuals/institutions, but Bitcoins antifragility would be put to real test when a country like China which accounts for around 20-30% of trade volume and more than 50% of mining decides to ban/block Bitcoin through GFW. As Bitcoin gains popularity, it's decentralization would be intact, but governments would start imposing heavy regulations on it or a few governments would decide to ban it, either way Bitcoin would survive. The latter would slow down Bitcoin adoption. So far there hasn't been any official announcement from the Chinese government. We don't know is it going to be a ban or the exchanges would resume their services after obtaining licences. Too much news is being circulated to differentiate between what is real and what is fake. |
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check your sources because i read that all centralized bitcoin exchanges in china have until september 30th.
BTCC, ViaBTC and Yunbi would be shutting down their services by September 30, but Huobi and OKCoin, two biggest exchanges will suspend CNY trading pairs on October 31, might be because they hadn't not listed any ICO tokens. They have paused yuan deposits and announced more information regarding the suspension would be made public before September 30. China hasn't banned bitcoin or mining, it's about ICOs and new regulations and obtaining licenses. It is highly likely that other exchanges would resume their services after obtaining licenses. |
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Given all this FUD about banning bitcoin exchanges, aren't there already existing decentralized exchanges which china can use?
Those kinds of exchanges are literally un-bannable right?
There is localbitcoins, OTC platform. Chinese traders used LBC when PBoC suspended exchanges in February and if we go by the recent stats it looks like the traders have again shifted to LBC, https://data.bitcoinity.org/markets/volume/30d/CNY/localbitcoins?r=day&t=bThen there is the decentralized exchange, Bitsquare, https://bisq.networkYeah, the governments can't shut down OTC/decentralized exchanges, but they can make it inaccessible. LBC can't be accessed behind the Chinese Firewall, traders use VPN to access it. |
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Psychologically, $3000 is a key level. There was a steady uptrend from $2877 and this number is also bitcoin’s current 100-day moving average. Bitcoin was stable at around $3000 for a couple of months and then broke into $5000. So $3000 is the level where bitcoin was stable for a good period of time so it isn't wrong to assume that bitcoin price wouldn't/shouldn't drop below this stability point. Leave aside the psychological keyline, no one was expecting the recent turn of events and the impact is substantial because China is a major bitcoin market. Bitcoin has already dropped considerably and as this whole Chinese drama unfolds it might drop further. Breaking the keyline doesn't matter, what matters is getting over with all this drama and then recovering. |
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China has become the powerhouse for Bitcoin (and the whole cryptocurrency in general) as it is hosting many Bitcoin miners due to cheaper electricity and maybe also cheap labors. China also boasts of probably millions of Bitcoin owners and traders who are influencing the moves of the market on day to-day basis. As far as acceptance of Bitcoin in China, it is comfortably good until such time when the government decided that it is time to intervene.
In general, the Chinese government is not comfortable with Bitcoin as it indeed representing a different currency that they can not control with. since Bitcoin is decentralized it would be hard for the government to make interventions and so they are thinking that maybe it is time to ban it altogether. The government can not kill Bitcoin but what they are doing is actually closing the country as a market for Bitcoin.
So the question is: Can Bitcoin survive without China? In case, it can't then then there is something wrong with it since it is not resilient to ride the big storm it is in.
We still don't know would it be a total ban or the Chinese government is planning to implement new regulations on bitcoin exchanges and resume trading. Something like this happened earlier this year, February 2017, when three of the biggest Chinese exchanges paused withdrawals and resumed services after about four months with new regulatory guidelines. During this period the bitcoin price plunged, but recovered gradually as Chinese traders moved to OTC/P2P platforms. https://coin.dance/volume/localbitcoins/CNYFirst of all, I don't think the Chinese government would permanently shut down exchanges or ban bitcoin, more likely temporarily. We already have seen the impact of PBOC temporarily suspending exchanges. China is a big market, a permanent ban would be a bit more worse, but still wouldn't be worse enough to have a permanent impact on bitcoin. The market would gradually recover. |
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and todays recover is not done yet , still didn't find floor price  Exhausted selling model. A pricing model used to estimate when the price floor of a security has been reached. The exhaustive selling model uses trendlines, volume indicators, moving averages and various chart patterns to estimate when the price of a security is going to reverse course.
A price floor is likely to be reached when a spike in selling order volume that results in a new price low slows down, and is met with increased buy order volume. The predominant downward trendline must also be broken by the price leveling out, and the 40/50 day moving average must be broken and reset. From the bitcoin milestones chart and taking consideration into 40/50 day moving average, you can see from 08/05 to 09/05, 30 days, it was really a spike, not much of an average. The last stable price or price floor of bitcoin was around $3050. http://www.investopedia.com/terms/e/exhausted-selling-model.asp |
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