After I got involved in bitcoin, end of 2012, I've been spending significant time and efforts to vulgarize bitcoin (and cryptos at large) publicly. Most of the time with just enthousiasts, but also with media (including radio & tv & newspapers) and more recently with the (mostly financial) industry.
Being truly passionate, when I say "vulgarize" it implies in fact a kind of honest evangelism. I don't want to only inform those that are curious, I am humbly doing what I can for this idea to spread.
I can tell by experience this task would be way more difficult, some time painful to do, putting myself in potentially high discomfort during interviews, if bitcoin had gone trough what some of you want to do with monero emission schedule.
I completely agree. regarding cutting emission - you guys realize that the failure of declining prices is not done by the emission but by the probably to high expectations of the buyers at certain points of time in the past. we simply did wrong in pricing monero properly. if we cut now - how do we know that we cut properly? I am probably one of the least evangelizing persons of free markets in this forum - but here please let the market do the price finding, not some greedy investors who try to correct their personal failures You mean, Monero goes to 0? |
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There is no compromise. (I'm a man of no-fight usually, I'd like to go with you, but that doesn't work here).
Either you touch the code of the emission, or you don't. There is no in-between.
I would return the short term argument "Monero's life is threaten, we must survive short term, that is more important than long term considerations", as follows:
If you have been on the cryptos scene for a while, you know the premine accusation is a death sentence (on the "serious" alt scene at least). Short term, our only target to expand the community is the existing crypto currencies community, alienate them and we're dead, immediately.
EDIT: Not talking about the tail emission here. As smooth clarified recently, that part was always left open and talking about it, or changing it, wouldn't be a breach of anything.
Monero is currently more or less premine coin. |
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[...]
The question is will Monero get new users enough to absorb the emission.
[...]
Sadly I don't know if it will, but I'm absolutely convinced Monero can do so. Sounds a bit of an old tune, but it's true: all we need to expand way beyond the existing community is a sound DB+GUI implementation. Then full steam marketing, but it will be a pleasure to do if Monero is technically the best anon candidate. Pleasure because made out of passion, not "just" greed of investor. There is a huge coordinated crackdown currently on bitcoin black markets. I know from primary sources the first thing investigators do when they knock at the door, is to look for the bitcoin wallet. They can very easily build a partial but significant map of bitcoin activity around black markets, constantly expanding it with the activity of people under investigation. Since apparently there is a need, or a demand, for such markets, people will seek for better solutions. Soon. In the current state of affairs really, I have no doubt getting enough users to absorb emission will be peanuts at current and rencent prices, once we have a software that works pretty much out of the box. Nobody is interested in a coin or in general any investment which is in bear market because bear market makes the owner poorer. The purpose of investing is to increase your purchasing power. I am not interested in any investment that makes me poorer. Temporarily I understand that there is fluctuation but since June heighs the fluctuation has been mainly bearish (lower highs - despite for some time Risto was able to keep also higher lows but even higher lows are not taking place). I am interested in knowing to whom you sell Monero when it is declining. |
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However now there are suggestions on keeping up the 1 % inflation after 18+ million coins are mined. You keep repeating this as if it were something new, but it is not. The same wording about a minimum subsidy was there all along. Here is an archived copy of the page from June for verification. There is one archived from May that I'm quite certain would say the same thing but it seems to be corrupted. http://web.archive.org/web/20140625104827/https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=583449.0This didn't answear the question of why now mine more coins than necessary and later inflate the coin supply towards infinity while we just could cut the emission I stated the argument in favor of cutting the emission almost exactly that way a few posts ago. and not to inflate towards infinity (put these coins towards the end of the curve and divide them for example for 50-100 years).
You are confusing two different issues. Stretching out the length of time longer and longer doesn't address the question of what happens after the time is up. I think you recognize this: You first said 50+ years. Now you've stretched that to 100 years. Continuing to increase the number of years to something that "seems like forever" does not address the issue. without touching the key fundamental which is 18.4 million Moneros. A fully fixed supply has never been a key fundamental of this coin, as I documented with the archived page above. You have Monero confused with Bitcoin or something. Being it streched to 50 years or 100 years - it doesn't matter - even if it is stretched 25 years if you want to hurry up. Why not make this coin a coin that will stay for long haul, not just a couple of years? When the coin is fully mined, there may not be miners anymore to process the transactions if the fees are too high so there should be inflation at the end, too. Like you have posted - let's not touch the total number of coins but just extend the emission substantially. It is a good idea. I might have not read the thread carefully enough. Recently I have even being not so interested in Monero so I might have missed some updates on threads and due to the laziness and being busy also with other stuff I have not been reading every single posts here. |
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The question is will Monero get new users enough to absorb the emission.
If the answear is NO, the coin will die, Now it looks like the volumes are down and pretty much there is no interest in buying the coin (go to Polo for some time and see).
Volume of all coins is down. I was checking quite few times where was Monero compared volume among all coins and even in days with less then 100 BTC, like was yesterday and will probably be today, Monero is in top10 of all mineable coins. Situation as it is is same for all coins. We will just have to wait that there will be more trust in crypto. Might take a months or only days. Who knows. Yes all the bleep coins have low volumes in exchanges. Monero has been marketed of being a liquid coin (which it currently is) but I am afraid once Risto's bid has been eaten the liquidity is not there anymore (Risto's 100 btc represents a significiant portion of entire bids still despite the number of bids have grown - perhaps due this thread being updated). |
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However now there are suggestions on keeping up the 1 % inflation after 18+ million coins are mined. You keep repeating this as if it were something new, but it is not. The same wording about a minimum subsidy was there all along. Here is an archived copy of the page from June for verification. There is one archived from May that I'm quite certain would say the same thing but it seems to be corrupted. http://web.archive.org/web/20140625104827/https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=583449.0This didn't answear the question of why now mine more coins than necessary and later inflate the coin supply towards infinity while we just could cut the emission and not to inflate towards infinity (put these coins towards the end of the curve and divide them for example for 50-100 years). This can be considered as a solution for high emission currently + gives secure network for decades to come without touching the key fundamental which is 18.4 million Moneros. The form of emission curve cannot be considered as crucial fundamental as the total coin supply, therefore smoothening the curve for decades can be considered as fixing a bug. |
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it was not my intend to split discussion again into another thread & other forum.
But you realize, that if we cut the emission we have selling pressure for a very very very long time, the daily inflation goes down way faster at the moment than it would with a different emission? If the supply drops, why there will be selling pressure? What he's saying is that the rate of decline also slows down. If there is less emission now, then there is more emission later. That is a mathematical certainty. The "selling pressure" argument for cutting would be that the emission now is less useful or more problematic than emission later. However that is necessarily speculative since what happens "later" is impossible to know. Okay I got the point. However now there are suggestions on keeping up the 1 % inflation after 18+ million coins are mined. If the emission has been cut, you can do this inflation without touching the total number of coins + network will be secure also in the future when it is most needed. Currently the network security is not that crucial as it will be if Monero gets wider adoption. Those coins that are cut from the current emission can be divided for example for 50+ years. |
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After I got involved in bitcoin, end of 2012, I've been spending significant time and efforts to vulgarize bitcoin (and cryptos at large) publicly. Most of the time with just enthousiasts, but also with media (including radio & tv & newspapers) and more recently with the (mostly financial) industry.
Being truly passionate, when I say "vulgarize" it implies in fact a kind of honest evangelism. I don't want to only inform those that are curious, I am humbly doing what I can for this idea to spread.
I can tell by experience this task would be way more difficult, some time painful to do, putting myself in potentially high discomfort during interviews, if bitcoin had gone trough what some of you want to do with monero emission schedule.
The question is will Monero get new users enough to absorb the emission. If the answear is NO, the coin will die, Now it looks like the volumes are down and pretty much there is no interest in buying the coin (go to Polo for some time and see). On the other hand, if there is new users enough to absorb the emissioned coins, there is no need to cut the emission. Currently there is 313 btc worth of buy orders out of which 100 btc is Risto's buy order at 0.0015... Once this wall gets eaten there is no guarantee there will be liquidity for the coins enough. |
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it was not my intend to split discussion again into another thread & other forum.
But you realize, that if we cut the emission we have selling pressure for a very very very long time, the daily inflation goes down way faster at the moment than it would with a different emission? If the supply drops, why there will be selling pressure? |
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it was not my intend to split discussion again into another thread & other forum. something has to happen, and if its only price jumping  The price is an indicator wether things are done right or wrong so it is good to see the discussion on this matter and hopefully the decision is made. If they decide not to cut the emission - I am done with Monero (I am not selling but I am not enthustiatic buyer neither). There is no point in buying a coin which is going down after a small pump - and going lower than the previous height. Also as someone here thought, I assume the community has not enough cash (and above all, interest) to buy the rest of coins from the markets. Monero has value but there are also other coins which are anonymous, too. Monero is not the one for an investor to choose. I am now at the point that I couldn't care less. I have been throwing money a lot into Monero - I am not so much interested in throwing more unless there is no hope for the end of this dumping. My Dollar value is down roughly 70 % (a huge part of this is the decline in btc-usd price but mainly it is due to the decline between xmr-btc pairing). I am just not interested in a coin which will go on dumping like this. I do not want to end up being the largest bagholder so I am not buying a coin that is dumped by the dumpsters constantly. I have other investments that are increasing in value so I personally focus more on them. |
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Bigger risk, better reward Grin
not always the case. buying magic beans is really high risk. ive never heard of magic beans actually paying off. so not always the potential for higher reward just cuz something is higher risk.  If there is no potential for gain (or even recovery of your investment) then there is no risk, just guaranteed loss. Risk means you don't know what is going to happen. Both are right approaches. In finances and stockmarkets the risk is defined as the mean variance of return (often it is called by the name of volatility). However, in this case risk is more like "business risk". If I start a business, it has basically limitless possibilities and I might become a billionaire but also I might end up bankcrupt. It is not so much risk, it is more like uncertainity of future outcome. In investing, risk is not uncertainity but simply ROI movements (ie an asset could be extremely risky despite it goes nothing but up with high percents daily - never going down - and making its owners wealthy). |
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i have been reducing my average cost quite nicely. i speculate there must be some big news in the upcoming missive.
Holy cow you must be sitting on a massive loss by this point. I mean, just going by all the other times you've said you were adding to your position, and every single one of those times was at a price higher than it is now. my average buy is in the 0.003's. fundamentals of monero have not changed, active development and other projects are still ahead, so i don't feel bad picking up more XMR at these low prices. Do not pick them all though. Leave me some delicious slices of the pie, too.   |
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My suggestion on making Monero a large marketcap
1) Cut the emission (giving much more life time for the coin - also this enables lower transaction costs since the inflation can make mining profitable also in the future which increases people's propensity to do transactions which leads more anonymous network). When cutting emission, it should be done in two ways: making Monero slower but more anonymous (increasing block time which enables more transactions per block and thus higher anonymity) and cutting the block reward. For example, block-time could be similar to LTC (around 3 mins) and block reward 3-4 xmr/block.
2) Non-crypto adoption. Non-crypto adotion helps not only Monero but also bitcoin since in order to buy Moneros one should buy bitcoins first. For example, Risto mentioned his network consists of people whose networth is hundreds of millions of euros - once they start investing into Monero big time and inflation is low, it means the coin value will go to skyhigh. Also bitcoin gets support since bitcoins must be purchased before executing the trades into Monero.
3) Building up local Monero type service network
4) Building ventures such as Risto's game that sucks Moneros from the markets into long-term bags
The bottom line: we as a community need to start making services (and money) which puts moneros into people's hands and sucks Moneros to long-term bags.
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Theoretically this could be a double bottom for both BTC and XMR at the same time.
Let's hope so... I wonder is there some relation to the Moolah bankruptcy and XMR tanking. A lot of people seem to have lost some XMR on the site due to "problems with the daemon" and it makes me think something funny is going on. It was definitely alleged that stolen XMR from Moolah/Mintpal were being dumped. I don't have the link but someone posted that on twitter before all the details about the bankruptcy came out. Missing link: https://twitter.com/omnik/status/522165410096234496 Extremely bullish, if true. No provenance, however. I have been extremely blessed to be able to be under Monero rain recently. Even today I got all my buy orders filled the lowest being at 0.00195. I am planning to reset some buy-orders in case the dumpsters want to continue dumping onto me. And my hands are strong. |
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People in Poloniex troll box are trying to make you selling your most precious Moneros for pennies on thousands. Do not sell Moneros low but buy. |
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Almost all Monero will be mined in 3 years. "Almost all" is misleading (it sounds to me like 99% or something, and down to just a maintenance reward or none at all). The actual number I've seen is something like 85% in 4 years, which means even if 4+ years there will be significant mining. The current proposal for a maintenance reward doesn't kick in for around 10 years or so. So if initial distribution in mining matters. It matters more now in early adoption when the release schedule is trying to drive adoption than it does in 3 years
That depends on the future value, which is impossible to know. Bitcoin rewards were cut in half, yet the value of a block (and of all mining) now is vastly higher than it was 2+ years ago. In fact another way to look at the schedule of mining rewards would be to attach a current value at the time they are mined. By that measurement Bitcoin is much less than 60% mined or whatever the current number is assuming constant-value BTC. I am worried if the transaction fee is not high enough in 4 years time, will miner still serve the network? No, unless the price skyrockets. Also high fees makes people avoid transacting with xmr. So we need a slow emission of coins for many years. In the mean time, we find usage for the coin and build a strong community. Hopefully, when the emission is low, there will be enough transactions to sustain the network. Exactly. Slow emission combined with building up services around the coin will drive the coin to bullish trend. The bullish trend attracts new adoption. New adoption generates more services and thus the positive circle has kicked in. The other alternative, which we have now, is a group of apathetic and poorer bagholders and zero or declining adaption rate. There is no point and reason to support this high emission rate currently. If there will be more adaption, there are whales and earlier adopters willing to sell their coins to noobs. I would see a drastic cut in emission - perhaps even as drastic as dividing the next 4 years supply by 40-50 years. Then Monero has some chances to survive. Currently 1000-2000 new coins on daily basis is just enough. Not more is needed. |
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Almost all Monero will be mined in 3 years. "Almost all" is misleading (it sounds to me like 99% or something, and down to just a maintenance reward or none at all). The actual number I've seen is something like 85% in 4 years, which means even if 4+ years there will be significant mining. The current proposal for a maintenance reward doesn't kick in for around 10 years or so. So if initial distribution in mining matters. It matters more now in early adoption when the release schedule is trying to drive adoption than it does in 3 years
That depends on the future value, which is impossible to know. Bitcoin rewards were cut in half, yet the value of a block (and of all mining) now is vastly higher than it was 2+ years ago. In fact another way to look at the schedule of mining rewards would be to attach a current value at the time they are mined. By that measurement Bitcoin is much less than 60% mined or whatever the current number is assuming constant-value BTC. I am worried if the transaction fee is not high enough in 4 years time, will miner still serve the network? No, unless the price skyrockets. Also high fees makes people avoid transacting with xmr. |
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Everything in its time, to have a game is better than to not have a game. And who knows the possibilities it may offer if it turns out well? I could even imagine it as some sort of decentralized exchange if you want so...
Any effort currently done to progress XMR's inner and outer development is good for the reputation, marketing is half the rent. That's what Rpietila and some early BTC adopters did in the beginning, regarding there was no GUI, fancy Website or funny Dog memes.
My simplistic view of things:
New Website ---> more people attracted --> official GUI --> more people jumping on board --> liquidity increases --> exchanges(like BTC-e) adopting XMR/USD pairs
@rangedriver: You make a valid point, why not put in contact with MEW?
Exactly. The game has no negative effect on the coin. Any coin will hugely benefit from such project. It will suck coins from the exchanges. Game creates value to Monero community since this is one of the first real use for the coin. When the game is opened for the public, it is 100 % sure that it will create new users for Monero. The anonymity is great advantage and it creates markets for Monero no other coin can have. It doesn't mean Monero should only focus on this feature. The bottom line is the same as whap said: it is better to have the game than not to have it. |
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I really wonder if the "owners" of Mintpal are dumping our XMR on Poloniex. I had quite a few coins there that I hope to get back but I wonder if they were already sold.
Awfully suspicious for the website to be down after a spontaneous upgrade for a week, and then they file bankruptcy. They say we have till the end of the month to withdraw funds.
Gox 2.0?
You can get them back... Looks like TrueCryptonaire will sell them to a stronger hand... The hand need to be really strong since I am not a dumper. |
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The good thing about these low prices are that you can efficiently lower your average buying price. I have exploited this opprtunity since I bought the majority of my coins just under 400 and now I am able to buy sub 3 levels. Why not. |
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