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2201  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Speculation (Altcoins) / Re: [XMR] Monero Speculation on: March 14, 2015, 08:23:15 PM
For instance, there could be Monero denominated IPO and with that money the created corporation buys different (fiat denominated) assets that are safe and brings cashflow (such as real estates with premium-cashflow) and then pays dividends in Moneros for instance monthly/quarterly.

There are already two:

  • CKG (crypto-kingdom gold) - rpietila explained. And you don't need to play. You can 1) just deposit and wait 2) hire a wealth manager which will (hopefully) optimise your profits for a fee
  • Cryptocoins-dice.com (investing, not gambling). The admin is legit, I have his phone number and I'll get his ID, we talked a lot and will physically meet (as well as a lot of other Bitcoiners to testify) on the 30th of March. Estimated APR (based on statistics for just-dice): 50% Sure, as long as multisig is not implemented in Monero, there are risks. Not that other assets like GAWminers are better.

Might be that some people are interested in his ID/phone number quite soon.. Not sure though.  Roll Eyes
That's the main problem really as there is no regulation. You can just steal the money and vanish.  Embarrassed

When it comes to XMR, someone seems to put on the buying bot.
2202  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Speculation (Altcoins) / Re: [XMR] Monero Speculation on: March 13, 2015, 11:06:58 AM
do you guys expect another rise in price soon?

Some time (~1-2 days) ago, I put the probabilities such:

30% we are below 165k
30% we are between 165-250k
30% we are between 250-500k
10% we are above 500k

...in 3 weeks.

So, no. I think it is more probable that we fall. However, the rise has so much more upside than the fall has downside, that I am continuing to buy.

As the markets are looking now bearish, I wonder what is the minimal point it can go (assuming nothing major technical and fundamental black swans are not coming - basically eliminating the scenario to go to 0)?

The number of bitcoins in sell orders has declined drastically in 1 week showing to us there is not that much eagerness to buy Moneros these days anymore.
Perhaps the guy who sold his Moneros on the vid was right....? Obviously he could have got better price for his coins but he might have made a right move...?

I am wondering if I should readjust my buy order to even lower.

I'm assuming whoever is doing the majority of buying doesn't want a pump inflating the price too much and limiting their accumulation. So based on that assumption, I would guess that this is a retracement and the price will bump and grind its way up to a price the accumulators are happy with, unless another large investor, or investors, gets involved or un-involved. I just like that it appears that more investors than traders are buying based on the action not getting too pump and dumpy.

Vid guy just wanted to hurt XMR or Risto--sad.

1. "The minimal point" The possible outcome spectrum includes cases that it will fail totally in any short or longer period of time, with small or high probability. The recent rise has lowered the the probability of total loss from market related reasons, but done hardly anything to the technology-related total loss. Instead of asking, how low it can go (to which the only honest answer is zero), some kind of lower probability threshold should be agreed upon, eg. "Going how low is less than a 5% probability in 30 days" and then remembering that we already experienced such an event last year, because the probabilities add up quickly (if you flip a d20 daily for months, it will eventually show a "1").

That said, there is a support in 180-200k which currently seems that we will orderly retreat to. Below that the whole trading area from 93-180k is a support as well. So the prospect of breaking 100k from the upside is rather remote, meaning that the uptrend is a reality in a great majority of cases, regardless what happens to the price as long as it stays above my announcement level (115k).

2. "Numbers in bids/asks have moved". This does not testify to anything except the manipulator cleverness and should be discarded as a piece of evidence of anything. Trades, on the other hand seem real, and I have not smelled trading-between-own-accounts during my career there. (I know this better than most because I know the trades where I was a counterparty, leaving much fewer possibilities for foul players to paint the tape with the few large trades where I was not).

3. "Whether you should readjust the buy lower." Depends 100% on what your objectives are.

4. "generalizethis' analysis". Correct, imo.

I think measuring the bid and ask books is quite good sign if there is a desire to buy or sell the coin.
That being said, it is the easiest and probably the cheapest way to manipulate the markets.
On the other hand, being it mere manipulation or not, this has been pretty good tool in predicting if the coin is in bull or bear trend. On the other hand, it is not the way one should try to predict the turning point since in turning point the bid-ask-ratio start to move to the opposite direction.

I am open with my goal: by trolling I try to manipulate other participants in the markets to readjust their buy orders.
Also if your hands are strong, it might be a good thing for the long term to reap as many coins from the weak hands as possible. Typically you are more efficient in this goal by buying cheaper rather than more expensive.
2203  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Speculation (Altcoins) / Re: [XMR] Monero Speculation on: March 13, 2015, 07:25:42 AM
do you guys expect another rise in price soon?

Some time (~1-2 days) ago, I put the probabilities such:

30% we are below 165k
30% we are between 165-250k
30% we are between 250-500k
10% we are above 500k

...in 3 weeks.

So, no. I think it is more probable that we fall. However, the rise has so much more upside than the fall has downside, that I am continuing to buy.

As the markets are looking now bearish, I wonder what is the minimal point it can go (assuming nothing major technical and fundamental black swans are not coming - basically eliminating the scenario to go to 0)?

The number of bitcoins in sell orders has declined drastically in 1 week showing to us there is not that much eagerness to buy Moneros these days anymore.
Perhaps the guy who sold his Moneros on the vid was right....? Obviously he could have got better price for his coins but he might have made a right move...?

I am wondering if I should readjust my buy order to even lower.
2204  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Announcements (Altcoins) / Re: [UNO] Unobtanium Info & Discussion - Current wallet 0.9.5 on: March 12, 2015, 11:12:18 PM
Scooped some cheap UNO for long term Hodl.  Grin

If you are in short position, my recommendation is to close it now while it is still not that expensive.

I remember when Youtube used to be flooded by the vids "crash JPMorgan, buy physical silver".
I am starting here a campaign - smash the potatoes, buy UNO.
2205  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Speculation (Altcoins) / Re: [XMR] Monero Speculation on: March 11, 2015, 09:12:35 PM
For instance, there could be Monero denominated IPO and with that money the created corporation buys different (fiat denominated) assets that are safe and brings cashflow (such as real estates with premium-cashflow) and then pays dividends in Moneros for instance monthly/quarterly.

There are already two:

  • CKG (crypto-kingdom gold) - rpietila explained. And you don't need to play. You can 1) just deposit and wait 2) hire a wealth manager which will (hopefully) optimise your profits for a fee
  • Cryptocoins-dice.com (investing, not gambling). The admin is legit, I have his phone number and I'll get his ID, we talked a lot and will physically meet (as well as a lot of other Bitcoiners to testify) on the 30th of March. Estimated APR (based on statistics for just-dice): 50% Sure, as long as multisig is not implemented in Monero, there are risks. Not that other assets like GAWminers are better.

Rpietila told that it is better to play the game not only invest and I understand this very well.

Virtual casino surely absorbs coins but on the other hand it may not be a kosher way of making money?

The better way to make money is to organize and exchange that has ability to borrow USD/XMR and trade with leverage. I am already every now and then lending my bitcoins in Bitfinex so this type of business is interesting.
Also some kind crowdfunding site (such as btcjam) - however this requires a lot of bad loans before there is enough data for regressions on the dependency of any variable and ability/willingness to repay.
Different kind of Monero ventures started by trusted person are also interesting however I am a bit conservative in this.
Creating Monero economy is the challenge obviously... However, this is something that might make Monero unique. If I am not mistaken, bitcoin do not have that many investor type of demand but more it is marketed as a tool to do day-to-day transactions.

Just my 2 mXMR after long day of working and studying.  Grin
2206  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Speculation (Altcoins) / Re: [XMR] Monero Speculation on: March 11, 2015, 09:03:47 PM
Now we really need OTC markets to clean all these coins from the exchange into stronger hands.  Grin
#monero-otc
https://www.moneroclub.com/

Hello!
Yes I knew the existence of Moneroclub.
This is an excellent service and will give a lot of publicity for Monero.
I hope the traders are able to make some trades and bring Moneros to the safe hands of conservative (=not pump and dump type) old money guys.

I have heard that bitcoin has pretty well functioning OTC markets also that are able to abosrb some big sells.
I would love to see the big whales making their trading OTC instead of dumping into exchanges, obviously now I am talking about things 4-5 years ahead - not tomorrow. OTC markets are a significiant addition to liquidity.
If I will ever become a millionaire with this I might start OTC trading with XMR. However, still I am just a poor guy.  Grin Grin
2207  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Speculation (Altcoins) / Re: [XMR] Monero Speculation on: March 11, 2015, 12:07:27 PM
To me the rally is due to the fact that there is very little people willing to sell at current prices.
Many, including me, are still underwater and we do not intend to sell at loss nor even profits that represent peanuts.
I am personally willing to see how this saga ends.
Will I become a millionaire or will I continue poorer than I would be if I would not invested into this.

I am up in BTC terms and breaking even in fiat now. My XMR are not for sale anywhere near these prices - none on an exchange.

Man, you are smart.
There is no rational point for selling Monero for peanuts when you can have potentially a huge price appreciation.
2208  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Speculation (Altcoins) / Re: [XMR] Monero Speculation on: March 11, 2015, 10:12:45 AM
Looks like Monero is building a support line.
If the bullish trend continues, the breakout of 0.003 should be violent and bloody (bloody from the side of Monero bears, obviously not bulls).  Shocked

0.0024x is now an area of support, but how will it fare against the sands of time?

Mid-term ( 2-3 month) emission is in the bears favor, and can slowly erode the price. At the same time, a short-term influx of investors would cause the price to go nuclear. A medium-term influx of investors will at least neutralize the emission. To accommodate all possibilities, I've set some .0015-.0016x bids and some very high asks. 0.003-0.004 is too low in the short term if new money shows up.

I think even one guy working full time for hunting funds to support the price it is possible easily to hold the current levels, even higher in my opinion. Not to mention if more salesmen are recruited. The potential inflow of funds is large.
Monero needs an overcounter desk that is processing buy orders from sellers to friendly hand of long term hodlers.
I think it is possible for one guy maintaining 10 0000-20 0000 usd worth of sales on average in the long run.
Also given the fact that new emission is only 16200 xmr per day and it is declining all the time.
2209  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Speculation (Altcoins) / Re: [XMR] Monero Speculation on: March 11, 2015, 08:42:25 AM
Looks like Monero is building a support line.
If the bullish trend continues, the breakout of 0.003 should be violent and bloody (bloody from the side of Monero bears, obviously not bulls).  Shocked
2210  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Announcements (Altcoins) / Re: [UNO] Unobtanium Info & Discussion - Current wallet 0.9.5 on: March 11, 2015, 08:23:01 AM
I wonder if the Cryptsy exchange is the one who is trading themselves against UNO-community?
2211  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Speculation (Altcoins) / Re: [XMR] Monero Speculation on: March 11, 2015, 12:47:32 AM
i have to admin that i bought some XMR, in fact i bought double the number i keep in btc.
and i did it before this rally Smiley
what do you think about the price? where are we going ?

Many, including me, are still underwater and we do not intend to sell at loss nor even profits that represent peanuts.
I am personally willing to see how this saga ends.
Will I become a millionaire or will I continue poorer than I would be if I would not invested into this.

This describes me as well. My monero is not for sale. At least not at any price anywhere near what it is now.

just out of curiosity: do you define "underwater" in btc or fiat?

Definetely with fiat I am underwater but also in terms of bitcoins.
2212  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Speculation (Altcoins) / Re: [XMR] Monero Speculation on: March 10, 2015, 10:23:43 PM
i have to admin that i bought some XMR, in fact i bought double the number i keep in btc.
and i did it before this rally Smiley
what do you think about the price? where are we going ?

To me the rally is due to the fact that there is very little people willing to sell at current prices.
Many, including me, are still underwater and we do not intend to sell at loss nor even profits that represent peanuts.
I am personally willing to see how this saga ends.
Will I become a millionaire or will I continue poorer than I would be if I would not invested into this.
I played the pump and dump game durinf the summer time but now I am not in playing mood.
I suggest also for other players going to roll dice if you want to have more excitement into your lifes, not dumping Monero since it potentially can make you rich.
2213  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Speculation (Altcoins) / Re: [XMR] Monero Speculation on: March 10, 2015, 06:51:04 PM
This is one of the biggest days I can remember on Polo.
750+ BTC buy orders
620+ BTC Vol
+50 %


You need to look at this. We are a long way a way from the all time high of this coin. Even at current pump price it is still undervalued.



Exactly.
Nobody wants to sell at these prices anymore.
However I doubt there will be selling even 0.003-0.005 levels.
Some profit taking selling might take place over 0.01 though.
2214  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Speculation (Altcoins) / Re: [XMR] Monero Speculation on: March 10, 2015, 05:45:33 PM
So will this uptrend last or crash?

Bought in around 0.0015

The trend will most likely last but there might be points when the trend is not this aggressive.
2215  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Speculation (Altcoins) / Re: [XMR] Monero Speculation on: March 10, 2015, 05:26:27 PM
I finally decided to buy at 0.00265, just hope that I won't regret it  Roll Eyes
You're actually late in buying i bought a few at 0.001. Tongue
Anyway it's a huge and long term project so anything under 0.004 is a good buy in my opinion. Wink

Investing a reasonable amount at 0.00265 can make you rich but buying a few at 0.001 will certainly not make you rich.

From the perspective of a larger holder, it was extremely difficult to buy any larger quantity at 0.001.

If you are buying, you do well if you can buy 10% of the daily volume, on average 1% above the vwap = daily average (try it, it is not easy).

The all-time-low vwap is 0.00099, so if you picked that day (out of the 300) with your timing skills, and accumulated 10% of all the volume that day, you would end up with a position of 8,000 XMR at 0.00100.

I agree, that is commendable.  Wink






My lowest buy was somewhere 0.00095 range... Did not manage to get many coins though (if I remember correct I got a few dozens only sub 0.001 levels).
2216  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Speculation (Altcoins) / Re: [XMR] Monero Speculation on: March 10, 2015, 01:55:08 AM
Anyone knows a legitimate way to short DRK when having 0 DRK?

A derivatives contract. You just put a bet out there, and see if someone else wants to take the other side of it. Go in the darkcoin thread and i bet you will find a bull who would take the other side assuming you offer him a greater return than he would get from simply holding dark. If someone takes you up on your contract than i would be happy to escrow for you guys. Check out my rep thread in signature.

Isn't Bitfinex offering a chance to short Darkcoin?

Oh, someone said this already.... My mistake.
2217  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Speculation (Altcoins) / Re: [XMR] Monero Speculation on: March 10, 2015, 01:36:17 AM
DRK just broke 0.01 on the downside

I wonder if Dark community is joining into Monero community.
2218  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Speculation (Altcoins) / Re: [XMR] Monero Speculation on: March 09, 2015, 10:20:31 PM
Ladies and gentlemen! Monero has now changed the trend.
We are now officially in the bull markets.
2219  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Speculation (Altcoins) / Re: [XMR] Monero Speculation on: March 09, 2015, 09:25:33 PM
its time for action Cool
192 soon behind us?
sell side collapsed, lets see how high we go

The first hour of trading is showing: absolutely nowhere.

I told you we need a breather, and we are going to have one. What diverges from my plans (wishes  Grin) is that it seems quite reluctant to go as low as predicted. Last time it came back all the way to 100k but that is not happening anymore due to so many more buyers.

But the present buyers are likely not lifting it above 200k either. They are not that many. In the grand scheme of things, we still have 1-3 months of accumulation below the recent highs, and when it's over, it is over and is not coming back.

Not sure what is your strategy.... Especially knowing you are having some client funds that need to be spent on Moneros...
2220  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Speculation (Altcoins) / Re: [XMR] Monero Speculation on: March 09, 2015, 02:15:11 PM
I have noticed something that is good. Monero is getting more and more difficult to follow if you have limited time. More news, more supporters, more discussions. Its not like the most exciting thing in the world yet but still...

That being said, i have sold a bit above the prices we currently are and wait for a retraction at least to 0.00156. Hopefully i will manage to have my orders filled. If not i will still be happy with my long term stash Smiley

Have you been selling in Moneroclub?
If you have managed to have some sales, what is the premium you are getting from there?
If I am not mistaken, I have seen someone trading there from Athens so I was thinking about perhaps it is you.

This is the type of trading which is the best for Monero economy: buy from exchange and sell OTC via Moneroclub with profit.
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