Looks like a giant sell off, perhaps this denotes that the peak has past.
For now...
I put a buy order in at 0.00302 just in case. But I'm not counting on it. That giant sell order doesn't seem to reflect general sentiment. I think the only thing most xmr holders are feeling at the moment is vindication, not opportunistic. I could be wrong though, what do you guys think, are you feeling like taking some profit? General sentiment is definitely not wanting to sell. I believe the sells we saw were inspired by the dumper (catalyst), as people thought XMR may have "peaked." I assume they are hoping to get back in cheaper. This may happen, but in my experience timing the XMR market is difficult at best. Strong hands haven't sold and will not sell for at least another order of magnitude of price increase, if not two. I agree with your statement on strong hands. No point selling others in the community this coin. Just hodling is the way to go with this beast. Buying a little bit more every now and then in order to support the price growth. I am one of those who only accumulates and when there is true mainstream adoption with any larger scale, I will refuse selling since I do not need to sell and the risk of selling any meaningful amount is too high - it is hard to get those coins back at lower price since significiantly lower prices are unlikely at this moment. Perhaps if coin completely fails there might be dumps and that's pretty much it. However, this is unlikely scenario. Soon it will go back to 0.004 and then it will stay there for longer since now it looks kinda weak. |
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Looks like many have sold - as I expected. If the rise continues, they might need to buy back if they are speculators who sold. Better to dump now than higher. It is indeed collecting some steam now below 0.004...  I expected in my personal analysis that people consider 0.004 as a potential exit point since Risto said in 2014 that 0.004 is the highest price Monero probably will go (amd that Monero will be trading between 0.002-0.004 which it actually did for long time). The true big rally might therefore start if 0.004 will be broken with power and the price takes some distance towards 0.004. When we crossed 0.003, it did not happen overnight. There seems to be some resistance to these round numbers. Sounds psychological thing.  I still think Monero will replace Bitcoin as a number one 1 crypto. Even I have talked to some people who bought directly Monero... They bought bitcoins only in order to buy Monero so I think people will prefer Monero over btc thanks to privacy features. Lack of anonymity seems to be a major setback of bitcoin in many people's opinion. Monero fixes it. Bitcoin will not disappear but just looses its significance. Just my speculation. I think it's even simpler than this: Sell wall appears at 48, buy walls disappear, price declines, weak hands falter (red moon and all that nonsense), accumulators continue on path of least resistance. Next round is the turn of buyers to enter to the markets. I hope there will be enough liquidity in Moneros so that the buyers will not take the rise into too fast channel. Usually this ends badly. Steady a few percent daily is a good phase in rising. By this way nobody really knows how high it will go. Personally I hope we will establish over the previous ATH. It is realistic to keep it there, for instance, if the price has strong support at 0.02, mining costs ~ 300 btc daily. In dollars it is 75,000 usd (with 250 usd/btc price). It is important to keep in mind that the longer it takes to reach that support, the lower of the costs of maintaining that level will be due to decline of emission curve. |
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Looks like many have sold - as I expected. If the rise continues, they might need to buy back if they are speculators who sold. Better to dump now than higher. It is indeed collecting some steam now below 0.004... I expected in my personal analysis that people consider 0.004 as a potential exit point since Risto said in 2014 that 0.004 is the highest price Monero probably will go (amd that Monero will be trading between 0.002-0.004 which it actually did for long time). The true big rally might therefore start if 0.004 will be broken with power and the price takes some distance towards 0.004. When we crossed 0.003, it did not happen overnight. There seems to be some resistance to these round numbers. Sounds psychological thing. I still think Monero will replace Bitcoin as a number one 1 crypto. Even I have talked to some people who bought directly Monero... They bought bitcoins only in order to buy Monero so I think people will prefer Monero over btc thanks to privacy features. Lack of anonymity seems to be a major setback of bitcoin in many people's opinion. Monero fixes it. Bitcoin will not disappear but just looses its significance. Just my speculation. |
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End: BTC_mktcap: 1,900M, XMR_mktcap: 1,900M
I disagree. This was defined as the end result of the simulation, so hardly worth a disagreement At present XMR is functionally a subsystem of BTC. To buy XMR, you first buy BTC, representing a flow of capital into BTC. When you buy XMR, it is an exchange of XMR and BTC, with no impact on the capitalization of BTC in fiat, and no impact on the flow of capital into/out-of BTC at the fiat boundary. Increasing the market cap of XMR is more likely to increase the market cap of BTC than it is to decrease it.
The picture only changes when XMR can approach a dis-intermediated equilibrium with fiat. Then triangular arbitrage will enable equilibration at the XMR/BTC interface as well. Massive profits and losses would occur at that time.
All agreeable, but this whole simulation is the answer to TrueCryptonaire fallacious claim that 10-20k BTC to be transferred to XMR will likely put and keep them in parity, while 1M is closer to the truth as shown. The simulation was not intended to expound the triangular dynamics nor the forward escape in a larger context (the post following had). Capital flight from BTC: ... 190M.
A reasonable conclusion on your premises. I disagree with how you expressed the mechanics. Capital flight from BTC to XMR can only be measured in BTC or XMR, not in fiat, except as an integral of instantaneous valuations. It does not matter squat in which currency it is expressed - here BTC and USD are both shown, but XMR not because its value changes too much during the simulation. Number of BTC exchanged for XMR as "buy/sell pressure": ~1 million (because the USD/BTC halved from 250 to 125 during the time).
Your parenthetical comment strikes me as an independent speculative assumption, or the consequence of an unstated premise underlying multiple explicit premises, rather than a consequence of the core scenario. It directly follows from the premises. It is similar in nature to "the diagonals of a square divide each other in half". It just cannot by otherwise. The elasticity factor - - is likely to change substantially during the course of an equilibration.
The elasticity factor in peaks such as the blowoff top in April 2013 was ~60 IIRC. When measured from the period of no price change, it is == 0 always by definition as well. => The method has its limitations. Yes, right now holding parity with btc requires more than 10,000-20,000 btc. For this price the mining activity still is way too high. It probably needs 10,000-20,000 btc daily minimum to hold the parity. Right now it is not that realistic, but once we get big guys buying (billionaires), it might hold there. If this happens, it actually can trigger a new btc rally, too since 10,000-20,000 btc need to be bought from the market daily to keep up the price. I think many have sold a large stash of their coins before we reach the parity - only the strongest coins are there for sale from the community. Thus, I am not expecting any bigger dumping taking place there anymore. The dumping take place probably on the way to 0.1-> since new millionaires need to be created. When that has been done, it is ready to rise for the second class of millionaires and that is taking place when the price rises 100 times from that. Though, it is possible that btc will be denominated in Moneros in the future. BTW, I see Doge's marketcap on the horizon. |
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In scenario thinking, anything that could happen, is worth assigning a probability.
Monero can replace BTC.
Litecoin can never replace BTC.
Monero doesn't need to "replace BTC" any more than pepper needs to replace salt. The latter features radical transparency, the former radical opacity. There is no competition, except for the amusing sideshow pissing contest of market cap. Litecoin is like the little spare doughnut tire you find hidden under the trunk. When BTC has a blowout, we just pull over and bolt it on. It will do the job until the mechanic opens. Just take it easy on the corners. The 'LTC is useless' meme is wrong. A spare tire is similarly useless, until it isn't. Same logic applies to fire extinguishers and earthquake kits. Despite all best efforts, BTC will fork again. Prepare accordingly. Bitcoin might become an important altcoin of Monero in the future. BTC will not cease to exist but the price may never rise to ATH again. There simply is a lack of stupid money these days. As Monero gets its own exchange and is sold to big buyers (probably a lot via OTC), the price cannot simply keep this low. |
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What are the price points the donations are released?
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I bought more btc recently with the intention of hodling it as I was 100% Monero. Half of this new btc has somehow become Monero. It seems I have no control. There is Alcoholics Anonymous, is there Monero Anonymous?
It seems you're right at the spot. I'm macsga; I have to confess that I bought moar. It was an urge. I couldn't help it. I won't guarantee it won't happen again soon. The price is too low for me to resist; I'm sorry. Thanks for listening (reading)...  Hello, I am True! I bought also some btc today and those have been converted into Moneros at 0.00385... I did not even have the slightest intention to hold any btc. |
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Browsing through Polo sell orderbook.
From spot to 0.01 price ~ 1,000 btc's worth of sell orders
From spot to 0.98 price ~ 2,400 (1400 addition bitcoins) btc's worth of Moneros for sale
From spot to 1 price ~ 5,000 btc's worth of Moneros for sale
If something, this is potentially explosive.
Just putting this into perspective: 3,600 new btc are mined every day, and the daily mining requires over 800,000 usd.
Even small increase in the demand will be able to put Monero to fly. Big time.
The biggest resistance (relatively speaking) is at these low price points which indicates that there are still a lot of pessimism among the sellers (they are willing to sell below recent ATH price).
As already said earlier, a lot of sell orders would pop up if price keeps rising. The price scale you're taking in exemple or so disproportionately far from the current price that it's completely meaningless. You could say the exact same thing for every shitcoins on poloniex, just because "there is so little bitcoins on the overall sell order book!". Also many of those coins can disappear from the sell orders if the price starts to move big time. Not many coins in Polo or whatever is the main exchange of that coin can even potentially have this type of rise. My point is, quite small money can make a big move in the price (if there is a reason to invest into XMR). |
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Browsing through Polo sell orderbook.
From spot to 0.01 price ~ 1,000 btc's worth of sell orders
From spot to 0.98 price ~ 2,400 (1400 addition bitcoins) btc's worth of Moneros for sale
From spot to 1 price ~ 5,000 btc's worth of Moneros for sale
If something, this is potentially explosive.
Just putting this into perspective: 3,600 new btc are mined every day, and the daily mining requires over 800,000 usd.
Even small increase in the demand will be able to put Monero to fly. Big time.
The biggest resistance (relatively speaking) is at these low price points which indicates that there are still a lot of pessimism among the sellers (they are willing to sell below recent ATH price).
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It is just a matter of time when Monero will reach the parity with btc.
Again, 5,000 btc marketbuy gets you there and probably 10,000-20,000 btc will hold you there...
The way to think of it conceptually is with the price elasticity on buy(sell) pressure. This is defined as the increase_of_marketcap : increase_in_investmentIn the past, I have estimated that with cryptos, this ranges from 4-10 over longer periods. Eg. CryptoKingdom has now marketcap of 700,000 XMR and perhaps about 70,000 have been invested to it, this makes the price elasticity ratio 10. If the same ratio applies with the escape of capital from BTC to XMR, without change in the total cake, they meet halfway as follows (figures in $100M precision) Start: BTC_mktcap: 3,800M, XMR_mktcap: 0M. End: BTC_mktcap: 1,900M, XMR_mktcap: 1,900M Capital flight from BTC: (3,800M - 1,900M) / 10 = 190M. Number of BTC exchanged for XMR as "buy/sell pressure": ~1 million (because the USD/BTC halved from 250 to 125 during the time). Math is different if new money makes up for the bulk of the buy pressure. Still, I believe the 4-10 ratio holds for fiat/XMR as it did for fiat/BTC. In this case, about 400M-1,000M USD is needed to reach BTC marketcap. Many conditions apply, time is ignored, etc. but you get the basic point. That's very true. I have a good feeling about that this will be actually bigger than btc since this is second generation who has all the experience of the first generation (+ many new millionaires which were scarce in btc in the beginning). |
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It is just a matter of time when Monero will reach the parity with btc. Again, 5,000 btc marketbuy gets you there and probably 10,000-20,000 btc will hold you there... I wonder who is the first to pull the trigger.   Heh, actually since someone first mentioned that a million dollars would get us there really got me thinking.. I mean, the sum of money we're talking about is equivalent to the spending that a single medium-sized company (worth 50-100 million USD) would typically spend on a single major facility renovation. We're talking about something as small as adding a 30' length of hallway, and three or four production rooms with blenders and automated packaging lines in a single FDA regulated food manufacturing facility could be that much.. Just the relatively minimal amount of money is what's getting at me.. I like them odds. Yes, this is insane... I think many people are seriously pondering what to do. |
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I would not be surprised if Monero will be traded with multiples of bitcoins each. Many who did not buy now will kick their legs for it. I am looking prophetically to the day when Bitcoin is one of Monero's altcoins. |
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It is just a matter of time when Monero will reach the parity with btc. Again, 5,000 btc marketbuy gets you there and probably 10,000-20,000 btc will hold you there... I wonder who is the first to pull the trigger. |
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I will add the disclaimer that I am another one of the people that no longer owns any Bitcoin unless they are used to purchase Monero or to use for sports betting because they don't take monero yet. There are some fundamental flaws in Bitcoin that make me think it will not succeed and some that make me not want to use it at all. Biggest is lack of privacy and the other is lack of scalability. If Bitcoin can address those two issues I would jump back in but it seems like there are too many cooks in the kitchen now to come to agreements on major issues. Two years ago I would have aggressively defended Bitcoin to someone saying the things I say now but I am losing faith.
There is another important feature of Monero apart from privacy and fungibility, the tail emission, it will actually start many many years from now, by that time Monero will be older than Bitcoin is now and still have less coins than it, but gone will be the "Smeagol factor", the perpetual inflation is minimal, and even today with current buy support would have a negligible impact in the price, but it turns Monero into a crypto more fit to be used as true electronic cash, while I expect Bitcoin to become an electronic gold. It depends on how you see gold. If you consider all the existing gold as a constant, then bitcoin is gold and Monero is not. On the other hand, if you consider the gold that is on the ground, then Monero's emission looks more like gold since gold is discovered all the time. |
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do we really, as the smartest kids in the room, discuss about a cryptocurrency replacing bitcoin? no fuckin way this will happen in the near future - money and value is an institution when we say monero is worth 0.004 you may get a hint about what I am talking. the comparison to any utility spending technology is complete nonsense - you simply do not substitute value for a slightly better technology, imagine what level of stress it would be to change the way we exchange value every 2-3 years . the reason why monero is so special is because it can fill the biggest existing niche namely privacy - this alone given makes it better than every other coin despites bitcoin. 99.999% (maybe even more 9s) of people in the world haven't even assigned a value to Bitcoin yet, let alone considered substituting it for something better. Is there a Big Mac index for Bitcoin? How many places that accept Bitcoin aren't converting straight to their native currency because we are still in the "is it worth thousands of $$$$ or is it worth nothing" phase? 21% of tips given through changetip on reddit go unclaimed and a lot of people still think it's just used for buying drugs or it went bankrupt. You gotta admit that it has a bad rep right now. Litecoin looks like it is going on a straight path to zero but you have to realize that Bitcoin has been following the same path which began at the same time and it offers no technological improvements over litecoin so why should it succeed when litecoin shouldn't? I will add the disclaimer that I am another one of the people that no longer owns any Bitcoin unless they are used to purchase Monero or to use for sports betting because they don't take monero yet. There are some fundamental flaws in Bitcoin that make me think it will not succeed and some that make me not want to use it at all. Biggest is lack of privacy and the other is lack of scalability. If Bitcoin can address those two issues I would jump back in but it seems like there are too many cooks in the kitchen now to come to agreements on major issues. Two years ago I would have aggressively defended Bitcoin to someone saying the things I say now but I am losing faith. This is very much the same I have noticed when I have been talking about bitcoin to fiat denominated hands. Therefore I think it is not that hard to replace bitcoin by some other crypto since bitcoin community is so small. Perhaps the governements will launch their own cryptos that people are forced to use... Who knows? Again, by saying bitcoin will be replaced, doesn't mean bitcoin ceases to exist but it means it will decrease slowly slwoly in value. |
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Bitcoin will die - no doubt.
However, it is a Goliath and it takes just a bit time. That being said, it most likely will not happen tomorrow and the coin will not die technologically, but the community will become simply poor and no new members are coming (why they should).
If I think very carefully, bitcoin has nothing to offer. It is very inconvenient. People get paid in dollars, why on earth they should convert those dollars to bitcoins?
The only real world use for bitcoin I could imagine is sending money from developed countries to undeveloped countries, perhaps bitcoin might save a few bucks compared to Westrn Union rates.
On the other hand, Monero offers a safe-haven for rich people since it is anonymous. Nobody can figure out your balance except Risto who knows that the largest Monero stack was worth only of 100 000 usd in the days of bottom prices.
if you think bitcoin will die, than i think monero will die to It might do this. Chances are Monero will die and it is good to remember when you are investing into XMR. However, Monero has better odds to succeed since you can add all the needed features of bitcoin into XMR. If you want to use Monero publically, it is possible, too. Bitcoin's last chance to get some additional air is the Wall street pump. Bitcoin needs tons of stupid money flooding into it in order to gain some value. Therefore, I think we should not focus too much on how many bitcoins Monero costs, but how many USD. Monero needs to stand alone and separate itself from bitcoin - otherwise it is just another altcoin. And I don't think Monero will be the ultimate crypto neither. this is nonsense. if you believe there will always be a better crypto then there is no use investing in them other than speculation and day trading. there is such a thing as network effect. and bitcoin's own dwarfs monero's by a couple order of magnitudes. protocols don't need to be perfect, they just need to be good enough and all signs point to Bitcoin being good enough. Monero is unique from most other alts in that it does present a use case that the market demands and that can not (yet?) be filled by Bitcoin but I believe it is too little too late for Monero to supplant Bitcoin on technological merits alone Yes, tech tends to go forward. When I was kid internet was introduced, and it was with modems that made the noise. And it was expensive, charge was 0.10 usd per minute. Now we are having pretty fast internet connections as a human right almost. When new crypto is introduced, we simply buy us into it. Obviously the one who gets in first will get best price. The last pays the equilibrium price. Same as Monero. Yet the internet is still running on top of TCP/IP as it was when you were a kid. You do not need fundamental shift to make things better. Monero can also be considered as a cryptocurrency and so can bitcoin. Bitcoin network will work just fine as long as 21 million coins will be mined but the community will not grow unless the price doesn't restart bull trend. Chances are, bitcoin will start having negative network effect and this is the golden opportunity for Monero to claim the first place among the crypto currency. I used to have most of my cryptos in bitcoin but as the price does nothing but goes down I am not interested in holding it anymore. I am not saying bitcoin has nothing use but personally I see Monero having more use. It can be used as a everyday currency (once the infrastructure is ready - other than xmr.to - I am refering to things like merchant tools, direct fiat exchange etc). Monero is useful for me personally and for many others, in a way to keep my funds private. Who want to expose one's funds to the whole earth? At least not me. |
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Bitcoin will die - no doubt.
However, it is a Goliath and it takes just a bit time. That being said, it most likely will not happen tomorrow and the coin will not die technologically, but the community will become simply poor and no new members are coming (why they should).
If I think very carefully, bitcoin has nothing to offer. It is very inconvenient. People get paid in dollars, why on earth they should convert those dollars to bitcoins?
The only real world use for bitcoin I could imagine is sending money from developed countries to undeveloped countries, perhaps bitcoin might save a few bucks compared to Westrn Union rates.
On the other hand, Monero offers a safe-haven for rich people since it is anonymous. Nobody can figure out your balance except Risto who knows that the largest Monero stack was worth only of 100 000 usd in the days of bottom prices.
if you think bitcoin will die, than i think monero will die to It might do this. Chances are Monero will die and it is good to remember when you are investing into XMR. However, Monero has better odds to succeed since you can add all the needed features of bitcoin into XMR. If you want to use Monero publically, it is possible, too. Bitcoin's last chance to get some additional air is the Wall street pump. Bitcoin needs tons of stupid money flooding into it in order to gain some value. Therefore, I think we should not focus too much on how many bitcoins Monero costs, but how many USD. Monero needs to stand alone and separate itself from bitcoin - otherwise it is just another altcoin. And I don't think Monero will be the ultimate crypto neither. this is nonsense. if you believe there will always be a better crypto then there is no use investing in them other than speculation and day trading. there is such a thing as network effect. and bitcoin's own dwarfs monero's by a couple order of magnitudes. protocols don't need to be perfect, they just need to be good enough and all signs point to Bitcoin being good enough. Monero is unique from most other alts in that it does present a use case that the market demands and that can not (yet?) be filled by Bitcoin but I believe it is too little too late for Monero to supplant Bitcoin on technological merits alone Yes, tech tends to go forward. When I was kid internet was introduced, and it was with modems that made the noise. And it was expensive, charge was 0.10 usd per minute. Now we are having pretty fast internet connections as a human right almost. When new crypto is introduced, we simply buy us into it. Obviously the one who gets in first will get best price. The last pays the equilibrium price. Same as Monero. Bitcoin has indeed some network effect but I don't think it is unreachable. I have been talking almost all my friends about bitcoin and they are immediately associating it to Gox and bubble. Gox can be easily explain but how do you convince them bitcoin is not in the bubble if it is in a bubble and as a result of that we see this long lasting bear market. Monero has second mover advantage over bitcoin. The Monero community consists mostly of long term bitcoiners and they have been growing up from wild teen agers to more mature people and are not throwing money like crazy into the coin. Therefore we might see more steady growth for Monero than we saw in with bitcoin. Monero may never go to the bubble but it might grow also nicely and very very long. If it does this, it is 99.9999% sure Monero will gain mainstream acceptance. It will get many magnitudes larger network effect than bitcoin if the price just keeps pumping up, but not in immature way. This is the very reason I hate when I am "forced" to speak bullish since it might create greed among the kids. The patience is the key here to success. Monero should not limit itself to be .5-1 % niche coin (which it is currently). The network effect is easy to create for Monero. It just needs a long lasting bull market. |
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Bitcoin will die - no doubt.
However, it is a Goliath and it takes just a bit time. That being said, it most likely will not happen tomorrow and the coin will not die technologically, but the community will become simply poor and no new members are coming (why they should).
If I think very carefully, bitcoin has nothing to offer. It is very inconvenient. People get paid in dollars, why on earth they should convert those dollars to bitcoins?
The only real world use for bitcoin I could imagine is sending money from developed countries to undeveloped countries, perhaps bitcoin might save a few bucks compared to Westrn Union rates.
On the other hand, Monero offers a safe-haven for rich people since it is anonymous. Nobody can figure out your balance except Risto who knows that the largest Monero stack was worth only of 100 000 usd in the days of bottom prices.
if you think bitcoin will die, than i think monero will die to It might do this. Chances are Monero will die and it is good to remember when you are investing into XMR. However, Monero has better odds to succeed since you can add all the needed features of bitcoin into XMR. If you want to use Monero publically, it is possible, too. Bitcoin's last chance to get some additional air is the Wall street pump. Bitcoin needs tons of stupid money flooding into it in order to gain some value. Therefore, I think we should not focus too much on how many bitcoins Monero costs, but how many USD. Monero needs to stand alone and separate itself from bitcoin - otherwise it is just another altcoin. We need to make Monero the Golden Standard. And I don't think Monero will be the ultimate crypto neither. |
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Bitcoin will die - no doubt.
However, it is a Goliath and it takes just a bit time. That being said, it most likely will not happen tomorrow and the coin will not die technologically, but the community will become simply poor and no new members are coming (why they should).
If I think very carefully, bitcoin has nothing to offer. It is very inconvenient. People get paid in dollars, why on earth they should convert those dollars to bitcoins?
The only real world use for bitcoin I could imagine is sending money from developed countries to undeveloped countries, perhaps bitcoin might save a few bucks compared to Westrn Union rates.
On the other hand, Monero offers a safe-haven for rich people since it is anonymous. Nobody can figure out your balance except Risto who knows that the largest Monero stack was worth only of 100 000 usd in the days of bottom prices.
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Judging the Poloniex sell orderbook it is actually quite easy to reach 10 % btc marketcap for Monero.
I do not want to pump but I am quite positive we will reach it.
You can buy quite large stake of Moneros for 5,000-10,000 btc.
Perhaps if if you triple that you can shake pretty many weak hands.
Just a quick reminder, 5 kbtc represents just over 1 million usd.
Who doesn't want to get Mark Force IV'd? But yeah I'm also having some BTC/XMR on Polo for some short-term trades but most of my holdings aren't in exchanges because I don't want to get Mark Force XXXIV'd. ~200k XMR out of ~7m total supply is 2.85% of coins on Polo, which isn't a low percentage but it can and will definately go up as the price is moving up, or coins will be market sold into big buy orders as we saw 2 days ago. It depends. Keep in mind that when we started the bull trend there was 500 k xmr in sell orders. So while the price has been rising, the number of coins for sale has decreased actually. |
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