lol


oh windy, always with the ulterior motive! the thread is plainly my speculation on price action If you follow from the start it was calling the top, then it was projecting what the bottom might be if it followed the same cycle as MtGox. Obviously its been a while since then given it was a 2 year prediction and a lot has happened - any mention of BSV is just me being honest about my thoughts - I don't *think* I have recommended anyone buy it for price appreciation purposes.

It's clear by now that I am wrong in my prediction, even if by some miracle BTC went to 2k in feb *I WOULD STILL BE WRONG* because it would go there because of some - as JJG puts it - black swan type event. Not because it replayed the cycle after gox, which as you will recall was the thesis behind my prediction.

You can all ascribe motives for that but not once in the history of bitcoin talk have I ever not been honest about what I think will happen - especially in such a way that would be intended to deceive anyone into doing something. So that line af argument gets a tiresome, regardless I fully expect people to keep beating that dead horse. Dogmatic thinking will get you in trouble, maybe not today, maybe not tomorrow but in time. Those that have taken me at face value, thank you for your respect.

In summary:

- top called give or take suggested $3700 bottom
- revised bottom call to $4100
- relentless mockery all the way down to sub 4k, whoops!
- more detailed extrapolation of bottom based on first bounce and gox history suggesting the $2483 target
- 2 years of that pattern holding
- finally I acknowledge pattern is breaking down

What I did not predict was the extent to which tether would start printing USDT, which I suspect is probably a primary driver in this run. I think without that then price discovery would have played out as predicted and now would be the time to buy in for the next run (with the caveat that I doubt there would be one, given BTC utility is shot now compared to BSV and indeed all those damn alts that have profited so handsomely from core's butchering of the Bitcoin protocol).

Anyway I feel like trying to predict anything at the moment is a lottery with so many court cases up in the air and such tomfoolery in the market place where we go now is anyone's guess, so let's do it - guess the price on 19th Feb. I already chose $2483 so looks like I am going to be the furthest away

What do you all think? I'll collate guesses in this post. Deadline is 31st Jan 23:59:59 UTC

$2483	sgbett
$24830	philipma1957
$33553	JayJuanGee

Happy new year degenerates!

C'mon February ... I believe in you!

You are indeed correct!


I guess now I just have to call the top again

Hmm, I read this as they have to remove it from the 6th Jan...


But I see your point!

It's in a SIPP so there is no tax to pay on gains, it gets taxed as income when I draw it down and it can be bequeathed tax free in UK if I die!

I've messaged them and asked them what happens on 6th!

Well, the time has come to go full BSVtard, my SIPP provider just sent me this message:


I'm so grateful that the FCA are looking out for me by protecting me from outlandish returns

Anyway this is my only remaining exposure to BTC, so once I sell this I'm going to have to have fun staying poor.

You know what the hugest irony is?... The XBT position in my SIPP is actually larger than my BSV holding in USD terms because of the relative price movements lol.

So the question is - do I sell now or HODL until the last day... decisions, decisions!

Good thread. I guess wilful ignorance of what's going on at Tether to be expected when it's pumping your bags ;p

What's surprising is that also appears to make people blind to the fact that if Tether goes down everything goes down with it - I don't think people have considered how inextricably linked BTC is to it. Most of the BTC volume is in tether. Most people won't be able to exit.

Curiously this could have the affect of causing a BTC spike, if USDT becomes a hot potato, then people will want to exit to BTC at any price. We saw the same thing with GOX when USD withdrawals started to fail - this started around November 2013, BTC withdrawals were still processing so people with USD stuck in Gox would buy BTC forcing the price to run up even further. Take the mid point of nov as an example price was ~$500 this more than doubled in the following two weeks.

Of course eventually BTC withdrawals stopped eventually too, and we all saw what happened next - people ultimately prefer dollars they can't withdraw over bitcoin they cant withdraw and so the USD/BTC price on Gox took a walloping. (some plucky soul recognised the steep discount to fair value of assets even after a write down, and wired money to Gox to take advantage!... oh how they were mocked! Good thing that "what randos OTI think" isn't important to me )

But yeah, that FBI page... its coming, 4 years is nothing! I've been waiting 10 years for Bitcoin to deliver the utility it promised... starting too look good now with BSV! I reckon its no seat to wait another 10 to see it fully take off.

I absolutely respect that approach - I'm s strong advocate for personal accountability! Sorry to hear you are in the vulnerable group. Hopefully you'll be on the right side of the statistics.

I'm exactly the same when it comes to Bitcoin, "dont invest more than you can afford to lose" gang. McCormack posting about taking out a $50k loan to buy BTC on twitter is the height of irresponsible imho, not because it isn't right for him, but cos suckas gonna follow him! Even if it pays it doeasnt mean it was the right thing to do. Hey ho.

20k breached nicely, lets see where it goes. February is just around the corner *sweats profusely*

I was born way before the 90's

COVID is a mass delusion, fuelled by mainstream and social media's insatiable appetite for controversy.

I have no doubt there is a real virus out there, I have no doubt that sadly many people have died from it. However when this is put into perspective, it is just A.N.Other virus passing through.

I'm incensed at the way governments have leveraged the opportunity to pass legislation that curtails individual freedoms. Even more so at the way the general public has cheer-lead them all the way through.

That's not even the controversial part!

Virologists readily admit that they still have very little understanding of the human virome. In fact its estimated that there are some 380trillion viruses in each and every one of us. The state we call "healthy" is the emergent property of these viruses interacting with all the other aspects of the human biome.

Viruses aren't malicious entities hell bent on killing humans. Indeed this particular virus does its work - it gets in the lungs and cleans them out. Unfortunately some people are already so broken by age, ill-health, or maybe even just bad luck that in doing its work their immune system shuts them down (the cytokine storm). Covid is at the scene and everyone agrees its a deadly virus that most be stopped at all costs case closed.

(this is similar to how cholesterol got maligned because it was present at the site of atherosclerosis - latest research suggest that actually the cholesterol was the thing trying to the fixing! who knew?)

What is that virus doing in the body of those that are lucky enough not to die from it (thats most people btw). What if its doing something beneficial (its certainly stimulating the production of antibodies, t-cells). If it is then all measures intended to stop people contracting it are actually preventing people from the benefits. COVID mortality by age is not particularly different from all cause mortality.

Numerous studies have shown the link between prior flu-season severity and subsequent covid severity. World Health organisation recently published its annual flu numbers, mysteriously this year there have been relatively speaking no flu deaths. (I forget it was 2 digit number, down from 5digits in every previous year the report covered).

I'm not entertaining conspiracy theories about it being a hoax, or bill gates trying to chip everyone etc im looking at the evidence from around the world, ignoring popular opinion and finding my way to the truth of the matter.

That's my method. (and its been my method for 10 years on Bitcoin related matters!)

Hope you were entertained.

I dont think much about those emails, perhaps they are real in which case the timestamp thing is a curiosity. Suspect its a CoinDesk sideshow designed to try and cast more doubt.

I'm articulate (sometimes) because I feel like its an important topic. Whilst I have no doubt many will make out like bandits from BTC price action, I think there will also be many that  "get REKT". Those people need to know the truth of what they are gambling on.

I'm polite because I don't see any point in being mad with y'all. I've always been polite because I'm not a troll, Wind_FURY correctly recognises what I am saying.

When people just dismiss it as nonsense, then there is nothing I can say - their mind is made up.

On arguments of censorship and decentralisation, we can't come to agreement because in the world of BTC these have become holy icons, pursued in and of themselves. Whereas if you look to Bitcoin you can see that they are not the goal they are means to an end (that being not having to trust a central authority). Ignoring the reasons behind is the cognitive bias of surrogation.

To be decentralised a system, simply needs to not have one central server. This has already been achieved with mining being a global operation carried out by big server farms in several different countries. You can trust the whole because you do not have to trust an individual.

If I assume correctly then the phrase censorship-resistant is being used to speak to the nature of it being extremely difficult to change the blockchain. This too has already been achieved.

Both of these pillars are supported by way of the enormous amount of capital at risk that miners have. They are profit seeking, driven to seek out other miners and collaborate wrt communications in order to maximise their profitability. A miner that doeas not do this is less profitable, a miner that tries to change the blockchain becomes a pariah they sacrifice future profitability because other miners will be less likely to trust them.

The convergence on the number of individual mining endpoints was spelled out in the white paper and has been borne out in the real world. Don't forget behind the mining endpoints of pools there are multiple miners, they too are subject to the same financial incentives detailed above, so in actual fact mining is way more decentralised than it might appear at first glance.

It seems to be the case as time moves on that the inevitability of CSW being Satoshi is causing the BTC die hards to move to a line of reasoning that it no longer matters what Satoshi said, and the the white paper is no longer important. Whats clear from this then, is you value the price of Bitcoin over its properties that allow it to be used as p2p digital cash. That you value your dislike of an individual over their argument. That you value your opinion over the truth of the matter.

To dismiss the relevance of the person that invented something implies you think they were wrong, I get the impression you certainly think CSW is wrong about a lot of things

I think it's interesting that once you get to know him you can see exactly what is going on. You guys only get to see his public face, so I can understand why you might feel the way you do about him. I hope you are able to overcome this. You. might cite this as an appeal to authority, and given the broad disagreement over whether or not Craig is a fraud, you would be right to call that. However, should it be the case that he is not a fraud then it makes him the architect of Bitcoin, as such his words will carry weight. It also makes him the 'owner' of Bitcoin and affords him certain legal rights.

Given his proclivity for courtroom drama, don't you think he might be inclined to exercise those rights. Wouldn't like to be HODLing when that day comes

Remember - don't buy BSV! Build on Bitcoin!

I'd stick a couple zero's on that 1% chance if I was you

It probably looks weird to anyone that wasn't around before about 2014. I think thats about the time when the new Bitcoin philosophy originated, and so people arriving since then are likely unaware of a lot of historical context - having only ever been exposed to curated content. That historical context is the foundation necessary to even begin to understand the evidence. I don't think that many people have the appetite for what's involved, the volume of information to digest is enormous. It all comes back to incentives - the magic at the heart if bitcoin, it seems, is applicable to a great number of real world situations that involve humans.

What is the incentive of every BTC holder, of every BTC exchange, of those that would seek to introduce anonymity into Bitcoin (LN, schnorr, taproot)? How does making BTC truly anonymous change Government incentives towards it?

My incentive is to have other see what Bitcoin's true nature is because I believe as a technology it is revolutionary, and so where I see that threatened I feel compelled to say something. I also care about other people and I care that they might be misled into losing a lot of money. I've invested so much more than money in Bitcoin over the years, the time I've spent learning about it I dread to think, so I do feel as though I have reasonably well informed opinion and moreover I can tell it is because I don't get upset when I consider that I might be wrong!

Well, thats an interesting set of views. A small sample but I'll assume it represents the general views around here, I sure hope you have all done your homework!


Yes, its function as digital cash is something that I always thought was a critical function - I'd certainly agree that is no longer the primary driver in BTC, given that it's now impractical to use it this way. Doesn't it concerns you that something that was originally called "A Peer-to-Peer Electronic Cash System" no longer does that. This is my original question - if it doesn't do that, what are the other things it does well and how valuable are these things?


I think that proof is in the eye of the beholder. The difference between truth and belief confounds rational action.

I've heard talk of people claiming that "moving coins" would constitute proof, but I don't think that those who are resolute in their opinion would accept it (and indeed it doeasnt really constitute proof that CSW is Satoshi, merely that he controls keys.

Much like I doubt they will accept it should it come to light in court.

I ask the question because it logically follows that if he *is* satoshi then there are potentially sever legal ramifications that might impact BTC.

Now I'm no trader, but I do invest. One of the things you know as an investor is not to fall in love with a stock, you always have to understand threats/risks to your investments.

I get the impression from this thread that because everyone is so sure he is not, that they believe there is not threat. Also, that even if he is - that there is still no threat. What I don't understand is how you can conclude this?

Heheh, thats nice of you to say. Certainly we can disagree.

You are right about rabbit holes. The first one I fell was the Bitcoin one all those years ago. Back then I frequented slashdot a fair amount, and the abuse you got on there for being pro-bitcoin was quite something just wait til you hear my views on covid they get me in some right trouble

https://unboundedcapital.com/blog/fraud-of-the-century

I know ya'll know I'm just teasing you

But seriously I am interested to hear what people think about how it could affect BTC when Craig has his day in court.

I've come to the conclusion that so many BTC traders are so caught up in the money making that they won't even care whether or not it is really Bitcoin as Satoshi envisaged.

If that's the case, then will BTC just continue to trade? Will it continue to be cyclical as it has in the past. I ask this question because, without the "digital cash" utility will it's remaining properties be sufficient to keep people interested?

I'm no stranger to being mocked for holding contrarian opinions, but it is pretty tiresome, so would appreciate considered arguments

As the dominant coin, and the societally accepted true Bitcoin, and being safe in the knowledge of Craig being a fraud as you all are, then there should be no fear of discussion. So tell me how the future of Bitcoin looks if it turns out he isn't lying? Who has a plan and what is it?

But nutildah old boy, time and reality *are* proving me right. That you are not convinced of the evidence before your eyes does not make the truth anything other than it is.

The vigour with which you protest says much more than the literal meaning of your words. Of course you have a right to ridicule people, but what does exercising that right say about you? About your motives? About your thought process? About your world view?

I give thanks to Bitcoin, to the white paper, and to what I think will be a brighter future because of its technological advancements. Those technological advancements are no longer possible using BTC. BTC's value proposition is price. That the number will always go up. It's a trading vehicle, nothing more. People can speculate on BTC all they want - no skin off my nose.

BSV will continue to implement Bitcoin as it was designed, and really why should that bother you if you are so convinced that it is doomed to fail, or that it is a scam or that the Aussie man is bad.

Don't you think everyone will get what they deserve in the end?

Kleiman, McCormack, Zhao, Powell, Back... and so many others... all gloriously fighting for you the HODLers, out of the goodness of their hearts curse that time and reality... tick tock... my patience endures, you forget I've been a strident believer in Bitcoin for a long time and in that time I have learned a great many things and whilst I know more than most I dont confuse that with thinking I know all I need to know, because that kind of dogmatic belief can get you in trouble.

I link that thread because it highlights a point I want to make. That bigger blocks was just a sideshow, a distraction created by coreBlockstream to keep people arguing (as im sure you remember brg444 later became Blockstream PR) whilst they went ahead and co-opted development to build their side chain to leech profit. As was predicted by many at the time - not just me, and was loudly dismissed and then came to be. Even now people deny what is in plain sight, I suspect simple greed and lack of historical context. I've *seen* things, I see more things everyday because I have access to information that many people do not, that's why I am confident in what I believe.

Script is the real pearl in the oyster. Right there at the start of it all! That's why Ethereum was born. How many times must the pattern repeat before people see it. Vitalik (and others) saw the potential in Bitcoin - I didn't understand this until Craig gave his Arnheim talk yes he's uncomfortable to watch at times, but maybe people should look past that at what he is saying! Sadly, most refuse to - certain in their assessment of his character. The point is that core hamstrung that feature so Vitalik made his own (sadly substandard, because it doesn't scale the way Bitcoin does). Core refused to scale, so other created their own coins (LTC et al). Core introduced soft-forking so others preserved Bitcoin (BCH). I would go so far as to say that core are primarily responsible for the entire alt coin market. Ironically the one coin they are not responsible for is BSV, because that was Amaury Sachets doing! (Look at how he did it again recently lol).

I sincerely hope nobody buys BSV to speculate, because that is not what it is for. If you want to make money, build something using Bitcoin - you know, the old fashioned way, where you earn money for working, for doing things, for making society better. Rather than parasitically leeching off the system. There is a huge opportunity in the Bitcoin space right now building on metanet, some companies see this and they don't give a damn about what Bitcointalk thinks. Bitcoin is growing up.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VfcS-uuI8A4

props to you exstasie for being objective, regardless of whether we agree!

due you are "winning" why so mad?

Yes I am absolutely blown away with the price action on BTC.

Do I feel remorse that I don't hold any? Not one bit. The risk is way too high for me. I'll stick with Bitcoin

I believe that Bitcoin will succeed wrt its goals & I believe that BSV is the most correct implementation of the Bitcoin described in the white paper.

Many think "success" is in $ price. Many think (and I once did) the goal of Bitcoin was to overthrow the system. That's semi true, but not in the burn it down sense, but more in the drain the swamp sense. Bitcoin is a virus, its incentive system is sublime, and shines light into the darkest places.

@exstasie I leave the title because its still in play! 19 Feb 2021 is the date I plucked from my ass, that is the date when I will be right or wrong - I'd agree that if it breaks the prior ATH convincingly that could spark a new phase of speculative mania. I really didn't think it would happen, but thats BTC for ya

@philipma1957 - the 16.5 top is a historical call... some 3 years ago. The argument now is about how badly wrong my "bottom" call is

@nutildah love you too xxx

Thanks for taking the time to write this detailed response. I understand your position as I have had similar thoughts in the time I have spent learning about Bitcoin, however in this time my opinions have changed. 

I've held the speculative vs utility value belief for many years and I still do. I think that eventually utility value will dwarf speculative price action as Bitcoin matures. Whilst I can see the comparison to gold wrt store of value, I don't think that is the same as thing as speculative use we see now in BTC (and other tokens). Store of value is "number doesn't go down", whereas speculation (as I am using it) is "number goes up".

I believe that deviating from Bitcoin's original design where 'it doesn't really hit a scale ceiling" was a mistake and that the sigmoid "adoption" curve was significantly set back - remember as companies adopted BTC for payments (MS,CEX,Steam etc) and then slowly over the years walked back that position. I see this as a direct result of BTC no longer being useful as digital cash. Digital cash needs boundless scale.

Since the original Gox spike I would suggest that all price action on BTC has been purely speculative based on FOMO. I don't think that is the same as gold. This explains the price differential. BSV is the ugly duckling and so has virtually no speculative value (perhaps even negative!?). This is due to the still widespread belief that crypto is designed to 'beat the system' (yes I did once think that was its purpose), and BSV being clearly in opposition to this. So the whole crowd on Bitcointalk and in Cryptotwitter are dead against it. I was in this camp, now I'm not. Now I understand the power of SCRIPT and what it enables, why bitcoin is not anonymous, why the protocol has to be fixed (and can be.. SCRIPT is your '2nd layer').

The reason I think (now, more so then ever) that utility will dwarf speculative value is because I can now clearly see just how big (tx throughput) Bitcoin can be. I see big companies that are well underway implementing massive scale operations that were previously unthinkable, both due to lack of scale and lack of functionality - Bitcoin fixes this . As this plays out, then those tiny sub-cent fees add up to A LOT. That's what will drive miners to move hash rate. That's what snowballs and leads to chain death. That's your extinction event.

Satoshi had all this figured out and once you see how it all fits together it's incredible. Knowing what is coming is enough for me, when I posted this thread it was based on price action from gox and "all things being equal" things have changed a lot so I can handle being tarred and feathered

Enjoy your price pump! I know what its like, the euphoria, the disbelief at it making new highs, more euphoria ... good times and don't let it mess you up too much. I'll sit this one out, feels kind of peaceful for a change

"We have such sights to show you"

Hello folks, just wanted to pop in because in the past I've been accused of only showing up when things are going my way

I'm not totally surprised that the price action is so ebullient, and I was certainly wrong on the way we get to $2k but I still think thats where its headed. (I also remember being on the other side of the fence over the years, and how ridiculous I must sound to you!)

To the guy that bought at $500 and sold at $12k - dude, look at your gains!!! Lamenting what could have been is a terrible thing to do if you are trading! It's way easier selling on the way up than panic selling when it comes crashing down. In any case I don't advocate trading, I've learned my lessons.

Finally to those that still use the "BSV shill" phrase - I'm not suggesting anyone buy BSV. It makes no difference to me if people buy it, because if the price goes up for speculative reasons thats meaningless (that person will want to sell it). The price of Bitcoin going up because its becoming more and more useful... thats what I am interested in.

I'm also incredibly patient, the first 10 years were hardest. I think the next 10 will be much easier, having been around the block.

Enjoy it whilst it lasts