You said it was optional, and that p2p fees were the lowest ever. Which is it?


lolwut

Hat Gang in the house!


I know I called the bottom, and here we are its going up.

Like any sane person should I re-evaluate my beliefs based on new information. It will continue to go up, but I realise now that this isn't the next run up, it's a suckers rally. Hence why I corrected my former post.

Torque - you mad bro? You seem mad, when you say stuff like


I gotta wonder which coin you are looking at!

Oh I don't doubt this could go all the way to 10k, but this not a new run-up, and I don't think that was really the bottom.

Look back to Nov 2018 when I posted this chart...



It's a little over simplified but is a broad representation of whats to come.

We'll track back up to around 9.5 but it won't stick and we'll need to come all the way back down to consolidate in the low 3s and then probably even lower as the last hopefuls are shaken out. Thats when you get your $2500 bottom.

From their it's anyone's guess what will happen, but you can guess I've got my very own sponsored by BSV-Bias outlook

So the BTC chain is still crippled. LN is a dead end, SW was built purely for LN. So the only thing left is side chains.

Everyone wanted side chains when they signed up for bitcoin right? Nobody wanted p2p digital cash. I remember It as clear as... oh wait.

Of course they didn't. We all used to think Bitcoin it was great (~2013 the golden era, survived the $32 crash, new ATH, adoption on the up companies taking it seriously!). You would show your mates in the pub, check it out download this wallet i'll send you some BTC, you'd ping it over and it would be ther in a jiffy and you'd say "no banks" and they'd be like. woah!

Then everyone started doing it, and like any good company that has exploding tech that is going to take over the world The Bitcoin Core team got together and planned for a capacity upgrade in plenty of time for... oh no, whats that, we can't scale? really because you sai... and then there were more reasons and fear, and Blockstream came, and there were Hong Kong meetings and they baited with 2-4-8 and then switched to SWSF&LN. Be done in 18 months they said, pinky swear.

Ah happy times when I was a rube. I remember when Josh at BFL got me like that, 2 weeks they said. By the time it got here (over a year late) hash rate has exploded so much that my 15BTC miner managed to get 2 BTC in the 6 months I ran it, before it became a door stop. Did I learn!? Hell no, there is bitcoins to be mined, these miners are waaaaay better. Rinse and repeat, only this time with a refund. Broke even on that. Try a different company... KNC miner told me yeah, no worries we got your miner right here... they didn't, lucky for me BTC was tanking, I got a refund... in BTC.

For others it was Trendon shavers BTCST. (By now I wasn't having any of it). So yeah the block stream stitch up had alarm bells all over it.

Anyway people leverage other people's greed as a means to control them. By the time 2021 rolls around and you've been through your second year of crypto winter, you'll believe anything that you are told by the Bitcoin wizards, if it sounds like it might make your BTC go back up. I mean look how little it took to convince people LN was the answer, despite all the warnings... the white paper explicitly told you it was a custodial network, that it needed massive blocks (which core were never willing to do). That it introduced a bunch of counterparts risk. People. Wanted. To. Beleive.

But WTF do I know.

GLHF!

Indeed, being Bitcoin might not be enough to save it! Let's hope it prevails. (Thanks for the kind words too!)


I agree, it's more than code.

Mined by 1 entity... let's try to remain honest! https://sv.coin.dance/block

It certainly seems that there is a very vocal majority, pouring scorn on BSV. So really nothing has changed, people have always thought they knew better and that Bitcoin was going to fail!

I'm amazed that these people are still so in the dark about BTC, I don't ascribe malice here, I suspect most are just speculators that are wed to their position - seeing Bitcoin not as p2p digital cash, but as some kind of get-rich quick trading vehicle. That's a really difficult bias to check.

By full-node I am going to assume you mean non-mining node. It's important to understand that distinction.

I could run a BSV non-mining-node if I want... the question is why would I? What value does it add over and above being able to inspect the public ledger via any number of third parties, chosen at random.

Do you think it would be easier to sybil/double spend a target that runs a non-mining-node, trusts that node implicitly (because its theirs!) and verifies using that node only. Or Person B who sees a payment in their 'lite-wallet' that double checks on blockchair, coinbase etc? I hope you see the implication here.

You only need to run a node if you are mining, because you need to verify entire blocks in order to know which you are going to build upon. This is to ensure you don't inadvertently build on a block that the majority of hash rejects, thus leaving you with the potential to be orphaned.

As for the "bear" label - I am the original permabull! I don't remember many calling 6-7 figures before me. That's still pretty much inevitable imho, but I think that the harm done by not simply scaling bitcoin and improving the base protocol (like BSV is doing) has caused considerable setback in the timescale. Look to 2025-30 for the "endgame" in that post.

Still, It doesn't mean I don't see market cycles, and it definitely doesn't mean I will blindly apply that valuation to *BTC* - it only applies to *Bitcoin* which for me BTC is in name only. I fear for those blindly holding BTC in the hopes it will just be business as usual. In every prior run up it was Bitcoin. Now it is not.

So I think its fair for you to consider by bottom call bullish, it wasn't a terrible call considering the recent price action

I think BSV *is* Bitcoin, but as you can see the market price indicates that everyone else doesn't agree. I think Bitcoin already imploded (when market dominance collapsed about jan/feb 2107). Its current price is just attachment/speculation.

Whilst market value is a great proxy for sentiment, I'm always mindful of that famous Ben Graham quote

So I think I will "weight" it out!

The speculative bubbles are always fun and exciting, but honestly the lows are the thing to watch. Every time BTC 'crashed' the bottom was higher than before. When I charted the bottoms, that's where I saw the s-curve of adoption starting to form.

Maybe it will do it again, and for everyone focused on $$$ profits that'll be great.

I think Bitcoin is so much more than flipping for fiat, especially with the rise of Metanet. Keep watching!

I'd disagree about it being sill to worry about this stuff. To me that sounds like taking a punt and hoping for the best. There is nothing inherently wrong with that, and it may well prove all my effort was for nothing - but each to their own

Since I got into bitcoin I've spent a lot of time seeking out information about it. How it works, how it's secured, what the potential consequences are for this change or that change. I've though about why I think it's valuable, why others might... the list goes on.

I think this gives you an edge in identifying what is going to work and what isn't. I know it sounds arrogant, but I like to think it was that attitude that helped me to recognise the potential of Bitcoin back in the day when everyone else that was equipped to grok it was just calling it out as a scam without really looking into it (see slashdot circa 2010-12)

IMHO there are several epiphanies that occur as you study bitcoin.

#1: Understanding the implications of the technology - how PoW and the consensus mechanism distributes trust, how cryptography is used to facilitate this. What the implication are with respect to digital cash without a trusted 3rd party. This is the first epiphany

#2: The incentive mechanism - how security is not black or whit but is a function of how much money/resource it takes to break something. Whilst the cost of defeating a security mechanism is greater than the value of the resource being protected one can consider that thing secure. This paradigm is leveraged by Bitcoin in conjunction with the cryptographic aspects above, to create a system that is "economically" secure. Indeed the very notion of 6 confirmations, is based on this fundamental concept. In reality 6 conf is way more than necessary for day to day (and in fact as the network gets bigger and harder to attack, zero conf is quite safe for low value tx).

#3: The legal status - this is most people's least favourite because it isn't a topic they are necessarily interested in, or comfortable with and because many that are into bitcoin arrived on the back of tearing down banks and the government. I have to admit, that side of things was a factor in my original attraction - I had thoughts of revolution. Now I understand I was wrong, I was naive. I understand now that as bad as the current system is, that Bitcoin will not prevail by attacking it head on. Instead, it will feed on that system like a parasite, until eventually it consumes the host. The way it will do that is by making itself immune to legislative attack. All of which is abhorrent to the ancaps, and libertarians that only see the simplistic "bitcoin is statist" rationale. It's much more subtle than that, bitcoin is not about destroying the state, it is in fact a mechanism by which the state can be held accountable. It does not allow secrecy. Secrecy is what gives those who are corrupt, the tools to be corrupt (state or otherwise).

#4: The Bitcoin network is not just a ledger - This was my most recent epiphany, and it comes from missing a big detail in #1. The SCRIPT language. Bitcoin is digital cash, that is intrinsically attached to the tx. The tx adjust the ledger, but a tx can do so much more - and this was available from day 1. The ability to leverage the distributed trust of the network to distribute data without reliance on a third party is the inevitable next step, and the payment for this is baked into the tx itself. This was possibly the most significant realisation.

So, I think it's important to understand those things, because I think that is what allows you to identify what Bitcoin is. It also then allows you to identify the flaws in coins that have tried to copy bitcoin but have changed things that compromise any of these fundamental properties.

The most difficult part is understanding yourself. It is inevitable that I have biases, and just recently I have spent a lot of time looking at how they may be affecting my judgement. Just today Daniel Krawisz posted a great link to a youtube video that covers this topic - clearly its using scientology as a means to get you onside, cos who would be hoodwinked by that, but that's the point he explains how the smartest people are. I spent a long time trying to think about the ways in which I could have been hoodwinked by BSV, its a tough job I tell you looking at your own beliefs, but I would encourage you to do so. Strip away the cognitive biases and figure out if its really Bitcoin that you are invested in. Or if you are emotionally invested in the culture, the community, the $$$ in your portfolio, your past, your ego.

I've said it before but selling BTC was the hardest thing I did (even then I was too afraid to dump it all, what if I was wrong, what a mug I would look, I should just HODL it always worked in the past etc etc) but it occurred to me that the pain I was feeling was cognitive dissonance. All of the HODL gang mentality was directly opposed to what my brain was telling me about what was going on with the refusal to increase blocksize, the apparent need for 'segwit', what the implications of LN were... they all made me feel sick... but I wanted to believe in Bitcoin.

Once I let go, that weight was lifted. Sure, it wasn't long before I had to do it all again with BCH/BSV split, but it was much easier the second time around as I hadn't got several years of time and effort invested.

I hope everyone does what is best for themselves, but whatever that is I hope it's because you believe in it fundamentally, and not because you just went with the crowd.

It some point you have to stop and ask yourself - Hang on, something is not right here?

The problem is it is a hard question to ask, and a harder question to answer. If your preconceptions lead you to conclude that I just flipped because I'm a bcash shill and i'm pumping my bags then more power to you. I've been more the honest about my actions leading up to the BTC top, told you that I sold early (I know not to try and catch tops). Check my post history, I've been consistent and honest for literally years. All this time I've studied and learned about bitcoin, its history, the tech, the economics, the legal aspects.

For those still open minded to what is really going on, my decision (initially) to finally let go of BTC after all those years preaching HODL mantra was filled with anguish and uncertainty, because I was an 'early adopter' again. Swimming against the tide, but inside me I knew things didn't add up with SegWit & LN.Of course, in time they will say "I was lucky". They said the same about Bitcoin. Never once did they bother to inform themselves though. At least now it should be becoming clearer, the decision should be getting easier day by day, providing you are looking at information, as opposed to news and opinion.

So I hope now as things are unfolding that (much as at the start of this thread, honestly go back and read its priceless!) people realise I'm not entirely full of crap. I could be wrong sure, but at least I will have been intellectually honest about it.

Honestly I want as many people as possible to get out of BTC before they get hurt. The point of Bitcoin for me has always been *everyone* can use it and *everyone* benefits. Yet BTC has been moving away from that for literally years. Fees, settlement, SegWit circumvention of PoW, all insidious changes that ostensibly seem to be for the better, but look at the big picture. Where is the utility driving the s-curve off adoption, if there is no underlying s-curve value, then what will springboard the next rally?

Don't get stung with dogmatic thinking, dogmatic thinking is what caused people to laugh at the notion BTC would ever again go below $10k.

Dogmatic thinking is what leads people to still think that LN is a magical scaling solution (it's not), that doesn't require custodial wallets (it does) and isn't just banking v2.0 (it is - it even said so in the white paper, but who reads those right?).

Dogmatic thinking is what makes people focus more on whether or not CSW is Satoshi, and less on what is Bitcoin.

If you are focusing on the former, you've been had, hoodwinked, distracted from the prize. The prize is valuable, so inevitably many will try to mislead you. The prize is Bitcoin, you just need to find it. I'm not going to tell you where to find it, you have to find it yourself. It's the only way.

Remember you are looking at the balance of probability, not beyond reasonable doubt. Perfect is the enemy of good. If it walks like a duck and quacks like a duck, it is a duck. If someone tries to tell you, "aha, its not a duck because it has a lazy eye" ask yourself why they would deny the objectivity of the duck based on non duck criteria.

tl;dr - the bottom is in (dont expect any sudden moves though, could take months before it resolves). Make sure you are on the right train leaving the station. They will all leave together, but some will run out of steam long before the others.

Damn bro, you *still* here fighting the disinfo! You got more patience than me

I dunno when you got into this Bitcoin thing but by around 2015 all major sources of information were compromised, there was a massive disinformation campaign on social media, and everything that was said, is everything you just said. That's just me and my tinfoil hat tho right

Consider whether your correlation of price to relevance is skewing your value assessment.

In 2010 it was easier because the information available was the whitepaper and a bunch of slashdot geniuses that told you it just wouldn't work. It was easier to cut through and find facts back then. Still just as hard to swim against the tide of popular opinion. But thats where the opportunity is, when you have more information than everyone else.

Now it's a bit more complicated because the people that said it wouldn't work, took over the project and sold you something else, and now you think that will work. They are crypto wizards so they can be trusted.

I'm still here with my "antiquated" 2010 outlook that Bitcoin works. It always worked. Nothing has changed.

Remember this thread well.

Even more bewildering when you look at the charts

So here we are a year later. We can reflect and see that a huge 11-month wedge that closed mid-november that showed support was around $6300. A break up at that point could have suggested that BTC uptrend would resume, we saw a break down though. Which confirms bearish outlook.

I think we now enter a year of confused sideways trading, gradually sliding downwards - my $2483 bottom call still in place.

However the caveat to all if this is that $2483 is the utility value of *Bitcoin*. The price of BTC is decoupling from the value of Bitcoin as it diverges in functionality.

The utility of BTC has declined, it is no longer Digital cash, it has not scaled to meet future demand. It is lost. The majority still HODLing are just speculating. As the speculators leave the price declines, and the only thing that would stop this, is when the price finally meets the utility value. In the past that utility value has caught the price dip, and bolstered it. As price followed the s-curve, this renewed interest from speculators, and the mania phase would repeat.

The $2483 utility value is for BSV. We are at that moment back in ~2010 when you found out some guy had invented digital cash, and it blew your mind. Everyone on slashdot thought you were an idiot, but it was so cheap... well, no harm in buying a few... That is happening now. BSV is grossly underpriced, the same way Bitcoin was back in the day. The whole of the internet, that is much smarter than you, is telling you that it's a scam and won't work, just like they said about Bitcoin back in the day. Which is ironic, because it is Bitcoin, from back in the day!

For anyone that cares about fundamentals, the detail of why BTC utility has been compromised. I would advise taking a long hard look at the history of Bitcoin, go back to old forum posts here and see how things were. Look at it's original design. Look at some of the disputes along the way about how it should be developed. Fixing what was broke and scaling was all that was needed, the design was great. Core took a different road, changing the fundamental design with segwit (ostensibly to scale) and introducing the notion of second layer LN being necessary (ahh that was what segwit was for). BCH fork was to save the chain so som guys could to stick to original plan (although now it seems clear that not everyone had the same idea what that was!). Now BSV continue to try and do the Bitcoin described in the white paper - the very same one that got me so hype back in the day. Isn't it odd that I have the same belief in bitcoin (P2P digital cash) as I did back then. A simple network, all on chain, massive scale. 10 years of consistency.... compare that to the flip flopping you see elsewhere....

The scam, is that people are still trying to tell you BTC is Bitcoin. Anyone that says otherwise is labelled as a lunatic, or a shill, or worse. Most couldn't tell an op code from a node

This is fair warning, BTC may "recover" in price, but it will never fulfil the potential it had when it was Bitcoin. The mantle has been passed. In that respect my $560k price target still applies we've just been set back about 5 years. Thats ok I'm patient.

$2671

Broadly aligned with what SV is doing right now. Seems closest to what I understood Bitcoin to be back in day.

What a mess the whole situation is though

You reckon this BTC-Graphicdesigns guy will pay up?

I'll bet anyone $500 in any crypto that s/he doesn't lololol

Hey BTC-Graphicdesigns! 'member this?

I 'member.

Hey Torque, 'member this?

I 'member.

I have come to admit, I may be wrong.

I honestly thought there would be a last hurrah for bitcoin, but the way things are going at the moment, I'm finding it harder and harder to believe that could be the case.

The way the price has broken down doesn't fit properly with the overall long term projection any more- looks like some other external factor is in play here. Maybe its sell off with the hash war, or maybe its because people are realising BTC isn't what it once was.

On the bright side, I'm always wrong, so maybe I'm wrong about this too and its just my "capitulation" that precedes the next run up.

Wild times. Oh, and BSV just flipped ABC for anyone not paying attention. Whodathunkit?

Imagine when it flips BTC. (I know many of you can't, but for those that can, think about it.... 30:1 right now....)

I did it months ago, when they first split. I'm not doing it because I think BCH will have a better fiat price than BTC in the short run. Neither do I expect Bitcoin SV to be more than ABC for a little while yet. I flipped based on the fundamentals.

The fundamentals are what drive the s-curve of adoption - the s-curve marks market bottoms. The speculative run-ups on top of this are fun, but in the end will be dwarfed by the s-curve.

If your coin has no fundamentals, it has no s-curve. BTC is dead man walking segwit broke it. ABC have just shot themselves in both feet. First with OP_CDSV and now PoS hybrid. Bitcoin is secure / economically sound / legal. If you break any of these things you break Bitcoin.

Remember I am not all in SV because of CSW. Just like I wasn't all in BCH because of ver. I wasn't all-in BTC back in the day because of Andresen et al. The obsession with celebrity in Bitcoin is a red herring. Be that loving or hating any individual, group, organisation. I fell foul of this with block stream, I was just lucky that the fundamentals were aligned.

It' should be about the Bitcoin phenomenon described in the white paper. Accumulated PoW defines which chain is the correct out of the valid chains. SV is the only valid chain wrt to the fundamentals that I understand make up Bitcoin. YMMV.

My understanding has developed through literally years of studying it, and I'm sure that I don't know the half of it - but I know more than many. What I do know leads me to make the decisions I make. If I learn new info that changes my understanding, then I change my behaviour. Holding BTC because the prevailing wisdom at the time was always "hold" only remains good advice, if BTC doesn't change. Segwit changed it. Retaining Block size cap changed it. LN changes it. How bastardised do people want BTC to become before they re-evaluate their position? *shrugs*

Same happened with BCH. ABC *changes* it from dumb cash, to specifically designed to process contracts which make it legally a different thing.

Delighted to see this thread going strong. One of my favourites. Keep up the good work!

I flipped all my BTC for BCH... I'm already all-in! (now slowly transitioning to SV as I see it persist, and continue to deliver the Bitcoin I bought into back in 2011... opinions may vary! ) so with that "full disclosure" out of the way here's my continued "permabear" stance explored further.

Looks like we are at decision time. Do we break $4250 and head towards mid $2500s?

I revised my original prediction as the initial rebound impulse wasn't as strong as I thought it would be, so the second is likely to be tempered too.



This permabear thinks we've exhausted the impulse down...Next stop 9500. What? say it ain't so why u no bearish? Well, because I think speculators are idiots

Anyone else calling that? No? I didn't think so. Enjoy your swing trade. Don't forget to exit though, because the slide to 2483 will be even slower and all the more excruciating. (ahh, thats the "permabear" sgbett!!! lol)

Probably stick my head in about may time. See how things are going. GL All! (SV is Bitcoin!)