The problem is that 80% of the hashrate has signed on a 2 MB hard fork in 3 months. However, the community probably will not let such a hard fork happen. To save face, miners such as Bitmain have already announced supporting Bitcoin Cash should this happen.

So, the thing we've been trying to avoid for years has actually happened: a contentious hard fork.

What are the ramifications?

Bitcoin Cancer Cell is the single crypto sharing SHA-256 with Bitcoin. Thus, miners are free to transition between the two as is more profitable. If Bitcoin Cancer increases in price, the market will subtract hashrate from Bitcoin and add it to the Cancer.

The Cancer is not only a direct threat to Bitcoin, but ultimately to itself since it is built on faulty fundamentals: The big block vision is one where blocks become so huge that only a few datacenters will be able to operate nodes, leading to a centralization level akin to PayPal and credit cards.

The Cancer comes from within us. It uses the same forums, chats and subreddits.

It is here to destroy.

The only solution? Excision before it metastazises and it's too late: Miners of the majority fork must band together and kill off the minority fork.

Holders don't matter shit. This is proof of work, not proof of stake. WTF are you going to do with ownership of essentially altcoin Bitcoins you can't exchange for the tons of fiat on the exchanges?

Ideologically, I'm on your side, but you UASF cultists are striking me as increasingly delusional.

So how many exchanges are on board with UASF? How many wallets?

UASF has neither mining majority nor economic majority. I wish it was different, but that's the reality.

Oh yeah? They got 80% hash power?

Interesting. Don't know why they changed it, but if so, I'll have to revise it to November 2017.

They say 6 months in the New York Agreement. Has there been any new info?

Bubbles don't make sense. They are blown emotionally and they burst emotionally. Markets are not efficient.

It's all psychology.

Yeah. Nothing new under the sun.

But admittedly, there is and has always been a tail risk of "failure" for Bitcoin where it could be supplanted. We've seen a scamcoin come close on paper this bubble (with 80% of BTC's cap). I'm faithful we'll manage to upgrade to Segwit, have Lightning Network etc., but I do want to avoid this risk entirely.

This bear market must end with Bitcoin as the clear victor, smashing all the scamcoins. Currently 49% dominance, still more to go.

I don't dare predict bottoms before they happen.

I have made a realization, however. The bear market is likely to continue until at least February 2018 because that's when the 2 MB hard fork is supposed to happen. Currently, the debate is a little subdued because everyone is fine with getting Segwit. It's the path afterward where the civil war will break out for earnest. Until that is resolved, I cannot imagine mid/long term bullish conditions.

… and continues.

dETH is now over 50% deflated. Much more to go still.

Similarly with BTC. As can be easily observed, bear markets are healthy for Bitcoin dominance.

Ethereum blew through its low from June 21st (excluding the GDAX $13 flash crash).

The Global Crypto Bear continues.

There's a set of conditions on the charts that happen only during bubble times.

I outline and compare them to the most recent bubble from 2013 here for Bitcoin.

As for Ethereum, it is evident to the untrained eye. See posting above mine.

Both are in a bubble. Ethereum is in a much bigger bubble.

There was no hack that caused the 2013 bubble to pop in December.

Not sure if it will be a couple months or years. I think it depends on how quickly Ethereum deflates. Bitcoin must become king of crypto again, and I think a bear market wherein Bitcoin falls less quickly than all the alts would allow this to happen.

And yes, I hate it as well. I'm very angry at the irrational miners who allowed the scaling stalemate to continue for so long that it's damaged Bitcoin's valuation severely.

Your account was registered in 2011, same as mine. Did you buy the account from its former owner? Because people said the exact same thing in 2013, back when people actually thought that retail adoption would start. Why would it be less of a possibility now?

Yeah, it's not like human behaviour naturally forms speculative patterns that can be read via technical analysis to identify high probability turns.

So I have always thought. Until Ethereum stole our mania phase and cut our bubble unduly short.