Global Crypto Bear Market

[N12]

Why I see a global crypto bear market coming:

1. Charting: Daily. The daily 20 SMA that has supported this entire uptrend was broken with yesterday's close. The move towards 3k was riddled with weakness that displayed itself in multiple bearish divergences on the daily RSI.
Weekly. On the weekly timeframe, whlie not yet confirmed, it is likely we will both have the first red candle and the first time closing below the upper Bollinger Band.

2. Altcoin and ICO bubble. When there are $150 million ICOs, there is nothing more to say. Looking at Ethereum, it has pierced its 300 low, an entirely new behaviour in its chart highly suggestive that its bubble has popped. We all know Bitcoin was bought to buy into altcoins. When the altcoin hype fades, so does demand for Bitcoin.

3. Psychologically, 3k is a round number and probably such a strong resistance that people will view it as unlikely to reach it again.

Update: Here is my comparison of 2013 vs 2017.

2013 bubble daily: https://i.imgur.com/ML9r1UH.png
2013 bubble weekly: https://i.imgur.com/ngS4fIk.png

2017 bubble daily: https://i.imgur.com/43qNlTn.png
2017 bubble weekly: https://i.imgur.com/QcieybK.png

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[magneto]

Why I see a global crypto bear market coming:

1. Charting: Daily. The daily 20 SMA that has supported this entire uptrend was broken with yesterday's close. The move towards 3k was riddled with weakness that displayed itself in multiple bearish divergences on the daily RSI.
Weekly. On the weekly timeframe, whlie not yet confirmed, it is likely we will both have the first red candle and the first time closing below the upper Bollinger Band.

2. Altcoin and ICO bubble. When there are $150 million ICOs, there is nothing more to say. Looking at Ethereum, it has pierced its 300 low, an entirely new behaviour in its chart highly suggestive that its bubble has popped. We all know Bitcoin was bought to buy into altcoins. When the altcoin hype fades, so does demand for Bitcoin.

3. Psychologically, 3k is a round number and probably such a strong resistance that people will view it as unlikely to reach it again.

excellent analysis.

I think the pump cycle has just been broken even without looking at all the stats and graphs because we have essentially been gotten used to bitcoin and altcoins going up 5-10% a day and calling that a norm. The breaking of this cycle is going to affect traders psychologically, and fueling further dumps in the crypto market.

Altcoins were too crazy to be sustainable as well, as you mentioned. There was no explanable reason why Ethereum had came so close to breaking bitcoin's market cap when it's got so many problems itself.

[ktabb]

If this is turning around into a bear market, it is likely because of fears brought on by exchange ddos attacks. That being said, I'm not convinced that interest in buying bitcoin has fallen enough for this to go to levels much below $2300. I could see this rising back up to $3k. That being said, if more bad news comes out in the next couple days then I think it will enter bear market territory.

Technical analysis can be useful, mostly as a sanity check, but I don't think it is a reliable indicator on its own of a market trend turning around. Also I don't think $3k is a very significant mark psychologically. There could be some resistance but I doubt it is significant enough to make a real difference.

[jorneyflair]

If this is turning around into a bear market, it is likely because of fears brought on by exchange ddos attacks. That being said, I'm not convinced that interest in buying bitcoin has fallen enough for this to go to levels much below $2300. I could see this rising back up to $3k. That being said, if more bad news comes out in the next couple days then I think it will enter bear market territory.

Technical analysis can be useful, mostly as a sanity check, but I don't think it is a reliable indicator on its own of a market trend turning around. Also I don't think $3k is a very significant mark psychologically. There could be some resistance but I doubt it is significant enough to make a real difference.

Exchange ddos attacks are most likely unrelated to the current crash.

Maybe it can explain why altcoins are crashing, but definitely not bitcoin. Also it should be noted that poloniex essentially went bust around 1 month ago but at this timeframe people were still pumping altcoins, as seen when Ethereum went to $400.

Point is that exchanges being defunct or partially defunct is bad, but not enough to make the whole market crash this much.

3. Psychologically, 3k is a round number and probably such a strong resistance that people will view it as unlikely to reach it again.

This is the thing that i agree the most with. Traders rely a lot on their emotions even though they try to limit it. 3k was not broken on most exchanges, and it'll cause a lot of traders panic selling.

[European Central Bank]

Point is that exchanges being defunct or partially defunct is bad, but not enough to make the whole market crash this much.

there's a big difference between exchanges being slow and crappy and defunct. if poloniex officially died you would see the largest crash in human history.

[Hhampuz]

Great analysis. I however believed that we had already been in a bearish market for quite a while now.

I agree on the 3k number, seems likely not to break for a while. But that's not a bad thing either. Give BTC and other crypto to keep focusing on what is important rather than increasing price and counting dosh.

Look at the crash of 2014 and how much was done for and around BTC and crypto. That is what got us to this point so one could hope for another crash perhaps.

[N12]

Great analysis. I however believed that we had already been in a bearish market for quite a while now.

I agree on the 3k number, seems likely not to break for a while. But that's not a bad thing either. Give BTC and other crypto to keep focusing on what is important rather than increasing price and counting dosh.

Look at the crash of 2014 and how much was done for and around BTC and crypto. That is what got us to this point so one could hope for another crash perhaps.

You bring up a great point. Sentiment in Bitcoin was actually bearish the whole time during the rise. I think the rise may have been brought to us by the altcoin hype, and without them, we would have fallen in price. Now that the altcoin hype dies down …

And yes, this is going to boost Bitcoin's fundamentals in the longer term. We need to solve scaling, and to do that, we need to apply lots of pressure. Price decline is good pressure.

[ParabellumLite]

Great analysis. I however believed that we had already been in a bearish market for quite a while now.

I agree on the 3k number, seems likely not to break for a while. But that's not a bad thing either. Give BTC and other crypto to keep focusing on what is important rather than increasing price and counting dosh.

Look at the crash of 2014 and how much was done for and around BTC and crypto. That is what got us to this point so one could hope for another crash perhaps.

Indeed, the early signs were there already over the past two weeks or so. You could notice a lot of doubt in the market, and in the past few days confirmation for a bearish reversal has been coming in. For me it's not a question of whether BTC entered a bear market - as it has - but how long it will take this time. I don't think it will recover in a matter of weeks now: this will take months, and in the worst case, over a year to stabilize.

Now the great profit taking starts.

[topper26]

Bright side. We are still up 120 percent for the year. Name me anything in the stock market with a performance like that!
Also the blowhards slamming bitcoin and touting ether as the darling of the crypto world can now take a seat as they have taken a hit as well

[Danslip]

IMO prices will hit 150%  rate per year soon. We are in correction mood and it will not continue more than 2 week.

[ParabellumLite]

IMO prices will hit 150%  rate per year soon. We are in correction mood and it will not continue more than 2 week.

Do you base that on a gut feeling? Why 150%? Why not 10, or a decrease of 50%? How do you come up with these numbers?
How do you know it will not last longer than two weeks if a bear market has actually started to take hold - as it appears?

[Hhampuz]

Great analysis. I however believed that we had already been in a bearish market for quite a while now.

I agree on the 3k number, seems likely not to break for a while. But that's not a bad thing either. Give BTC and other crypto to keep focusing on what is important rather than increasing price and counting dosh.

Look at the crash of 2014 and how much was done for and around BTC and crypto. That is what got us to this point so one could hope for another crash perhaps.

You bring up a great point. Sentiment in Bitcoin was actually bearish the whole time during the rise. I think the rise may have been brought to us by the altcoin hype, and without them, we would have fallen in price. Now that the altcoin hype dies down …

And yes, this is going to boost Bitcoin's fundamentals in the longer term. We need to solve scaling, and to do that, we need to apply lots of pressure. Price decline is good pressure.

Definitely due to the hype around alts right now. I never really understood the run up to almost $3k after the fact that ETF got denied.

I agree with you that Scaling needs a solution. Quickly. Perhaps if all the big shots could stop being egotistical power hungry children they could solve it together. Guess we'll have to wait and see what happens with the Forced SW and perhaps imminent HF.

[Ken1022]

If this is turning around into a bear market, it is likely because of fears brought on by exchange ddos attacks. That being said, I'm not convinced that interest in buying bitcoin has fallen enough for this to go to levels much below $2300. I could see this rising back up to $3k. That being said, if more bad news comes out in the next couple days then I think it will enter bear market territory.

Technical analysis can be useful, mostly as a sanity check, but I don't think it is a reliable indicator on its own of a market trend turning around. Also I don't think $3k is a very significant mark psychologically. There could be some resistance but I doubt it is significant enough to make a real difference.

Exchange ddos attacks are most likely unrelated to the current crash.

Maybe it can explain why altcoins are crashing, but definitely not bitcoin. Also it should be noted that poloniex essentially went bust around 1 month ago but at this timeframe people were still pumping altcoins, as seen when Ethereum went to $400.

Point is that exchanges being defunct or partially defunct is bad, but not enough to make the whole market crash this much.

3. Psychologically, 3k is a round number and probably such a strong resistance that people will view it as unlikely to reach it again.

This is the thing that i agree the most with. Traders rely a lot on their emotions even though they try to limit it. 3k was not broken on most exchanges, and it'll cause a lot of traders panic selling.

I'm rather new to btc. can anybody be kind enough to explain what a "exchange ddos attack" is?

Also I'm very glad to see allot of members still sane despite the sudden drops. If this happened 1 month ago, I'd probably have just sold everything and quite BTC all together. It just so happens that I took a leap of faith, and read enough information here to somehow convince myself to mostly hodl in the long run.

[European Central Bank]

I'm rather new to btc. can anybody be kind enough to explain what a "exchange ddos attack" is?

this - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Denial-of-service_attack

applied to an exchange so no one can trade, but sometimes insiders still can.

[Ken1022]

I'm rather new to btc. can anybody be kind enough to explain what a "exchange ddos attack" is?

this - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Denial-of-service_attack

applied to an exchange so no one can trade, but sometimes insiders still can.

That's fkt up. But thank you.

It's still rather unnerving though since BTC value is going back to the values where I first started. I guess I just happened to get into the scene whilst everything was in the middle of a huge wave.

Wouldn't the nearing of Australia's adoption help get it back into an uptrend though? Or is this somehow just a good preparation for it to be bought for cheaper prices?

[LFC_Bitcoin]

Correction's are fine but I really don't want to see the bitcoin price fall much more than it already has over the last 2 days.

[mobnepal]

IMO prices will hit 150%  rate per year soon. We are in correction mood and it will not continue more than 2 week.

Correction for 2 week  That can easily push price to below $1500 support level, I think we will see some green candles by tomorrow morning and price might stabalized with some buy support at $2500.

[hacknoid]

Price overall in crypto has been rising a too fast as of late.  Too many newbies who don't understand the tech or the cycles ("weak hands") bought in, and so the correction at the peak is turning into a bubble pop for the whole market.  Not the end of crypto or bitcoin by any means, but not surprising.  Weak hands are in it to make a quick buck, and are far to skittish to handle the crypto markets.

Once the market finds a bottom, I expect experiences Bitcoin trades to buy back in at a steep discount.

Nervousness could also be triggered or affected by the approaching August 1 UASF, and again, lack of understanding of markets magnifies this effect.  Going to take  while to settle down after that date, no matter which way it goes.

[Hhampuz]

Price overall in crypto has been rising a too fast as of late.  Too many newbies who don't understand the tech or the cycles ("weak hands") bought in, and so the correction at the peak is turning into a bubble pop for the whole market.  Not the end of crypto or bitcoin by any means, but not surprising.  Weak hands are in it to make a quick buck, and are far to skittish to handle the crypto markets.

Once the market finds a bottom, I expect experiences Bitcoin trades to buy back in at a steep discount.

Nervousness could also be triggered or affected by the approaching August 1 UASF, and again, lack of understanding of markets magnifies this effect.  Going to take  while to settle down after that date, no matter which way it goes.

Definitely agree on the point that there's a lot of newbies throwing money on Bitcoin without knowing anything. My neighbours cousins friends grandma just invested in Bitcoin due to what I said, does not seem to make a lot of sense but it is what it is.

As for August 1.. We are definitely in for some interesting times ahead of that. I believe we will go slowly up, but it could, as you say, go either way and the brakes could come off without a brick wall in sight.

Time will tell, as with all things.

[bitcoin carpenter]

Remember 2013 between the bubbles...  price fluctuated between the last ATH of 160 dollars to around double that number before finally breaking out into a new bubble.

If history repeats itself over an extended time line, we could see fluctuations between 1 and 3k USD for another year.