C'mon! That's not even remotely bold!
Any hard predictions in the "next hour" span are generally pretty bold. long term trends on bitcoin are pretty easy "it's gonna go up" midterm ones, well, they can be trickier, short term it is pretty difficult to guage, barring something obvious like giant fake bidwalls. |
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Anyone interested in puts?  As you might know by now, I want to buy bitcoins, and what would be a better way to buy them than giving others permission to sell at lower than current price and net the margin. Worst scenario would be to just net the margin.. Imho, we will see either 110 or 102, one before the other. Prepare accordingly. Can you explain what you are offering? I have read a bit about puts and they don't make a lot of sense to me. If you believe that bitcoin might go down a lot, you sell, and buy back cheaper. If you are not sure, it may go down or not, but that is not certain, and you don't want to sell eg. for tax reasons, you buy a put. For example, now I would sell you a $100 put for BTC.200. MP is selling it for BTC.330 currently so you get it cheaper from me. Put is my obligation to buy bitcoins at the strike price, no matter how low they go in other venues such as Mt.Gox. This put above is current until end of June, and may be exercised any time before. BTC100 face value OK (I want to try even this one time thats why I lowered the minimum). So you pay me BTC20, and your BTC100 will never be worth less than $10,000 until the end of June. Sleep well!  That makes sense. I'm fairly confident they'll be WAY above 100 by the end of June, but thank you for explaining that. |
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Anyone interested in puts? As you might know by now, I want to buy bitcoins, and what would be a better way to buy them than giving others permission to sell at lower than current price and net the margin. Worst scenario would be to just net the margin.. Imho, we will see either 110 or 102, one before the other. Prepare accordingly. Can you explain what you are offering? I have read a bit about puts and they don't make a lot of sense to me. put and call options are quite complicated... http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Put_optionyeah, I read that article, it looked like it was making it more complicated than it needed to be but i wasn't certain. |
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I think that bitcoin is too unstable, and if this trend continues, it'll never reach a value of even $1000 per coin.
Really agree. I think that BTC don't will be strong stable never (or not in the nexts 5-10 years). But maybe we will see this price caused for the reduced number of bitcoins compared to population. I also agree, just imagine how many people would sell their bitcoins when they hit $1000 or $500 even. People fear the instability and want to cash out and hedge their losses generally. The bitcoin would have to crush fiat to truly climb. 6 months ago people would have been saying the same thing about getting to 100 USD. But the people who sell have to be selling to somebody, so for every person who sold at 100 because they thought the price was going too high, there is somebody who bought at 100 because they think the price could go higher still and/or they think 100 is a good price. It's interesting when you put it that way. It's a good thing to know someone has high hopes for the future of bitcoin. Hmmm.... Unless it stablises, it cannot be used to buy and sell things in the real world, until then it is only worth what speculation means it is perceived as being worth. I am a believer, but it's a long road to these kind of values and if it does 'spike' to 2000 bucks, a lot of damage when it crashes back down will make a lot of mess. People were buying at 250USD + recently, and they got burned. there will be a lot more money at stake at the 2000 mark, and it may not be good news. The price now is what we make it, it does not reflect a real value - there isn't one that is measurable other than in the actual bitcoin market propped up by the beliefs of those who hold - and trade in it. Even unstable it can be used to buy and sell things in the real world. What is required is a way to convert to and from fiat within a very short period of time. If I am selling something and can turn bitcoins that I receive in payment into fiat before the price changes, then I am not exposed to risk. I can denominate my prices in whatever units my buyers are familiar with, maintaining a constant price in the currency that works best for me.n This doesn't require stability over days or weeks, just over hours. |
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Anyone interested in puts? As you might know by now, I want to buy bitcoins, and what would be a better way to buy them than giving others permission to sell at lower than current price and net the margin. Worst scenario would be to just net the margin.. Imho, we will see either 110 or 102, one before the other. Prepare accordingly. Can you explain what you are offering? I have read a bit about puts and they don't make a lot of sense to me. |
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Subject does not make sense. "Slow and steady wins the race" What race? Where is the finish line?
The finish line is the mythical real price. |
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Could be bot gone wild, could also be someone that doesn't have the funds to buy anymore, thus they sell a ton, and immediately buy a bunch more in an attempt to eat through the 125 wall. They kept trying to do this and appear to have failed miserably and people just started throwing asks up to 125 and made the wall even more massive, lol.
But even if they get though 125, they have lost a ton of money on the trading fees. How can they actually make a profit on selling at 124, buying back at 119 and then doing that repeatedly? A $5 spread is going to make money, not lose money. That's 4% profit, even if the trading fees are at their highest they are only .6% one per trade means 1.2% in trading fees so the trader is making 3.8% profit. |
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There was a definite pump and dump involved in the recent rally. A wall of about $2m that moved up from $100 to $110, staying enough behind that it did not buy any actual bitcoins, and then smaller but still sizeable moving walls as the price approached 125. That's not usually a great sign.
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Something feels off about that rally, reminds me of something similiar that happened april 28-30 from 125 to 145. I guess i have my tinfoil hat on, but it really does look manipulated.  It was pretty clearly manipulated. All those moving walls. |
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[...] or leaves me with $220k funny money, and my remaining bitcoins valued at $300k/BTC in October, 2013.
Lol. Go take an anti-delusion pill. It should be obvious that anyone *really* believing the cruft you write wouldn't be selling, at any time, ever, for whatever reason. Ergo, you don't believe this crap yourself. I dunno, a ride up to 300k is gonna be a bumpy ride. |
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How are you seeing this? What must I do?
I was just watching the bid and ask walls on MTGox live. The manipulator kept building a bidwall at or just below the market price, slowly pushign it up toward 125. |
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I don't know what was accomplished by dropping the wall just before it collided with the 125 wall though.
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Well, she's pushing a herd of bots then, that works just as well as a herd of people.
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Hmm..
What about the people who have Bitcoins from 2012? Those that brought some (mostly for Silk Road at the time) before all the btc businesses started appearing beginning of this year, and then suddenly realised those few btc's still in their wallets are suddenly worth a bit more. Not millionaires, but suddenly more interested.
That's basically the situation I am in. Althoguh the fact that people bought for Silk Road makes it interesting, since it means it is mostly drug consumers. |
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Oh, and I am no longer a true believer. I thought bitcoins could revolutionize finance and make it free. Currently the only thing you can buy better with bitcoins than fiat is drugs (at least as far as I can tell) I'm all in favor of a reliable way to conduct online drug deals, but I had a LOT more hope for Bitcoin than that.
I wouldn't lose hope so early. Bitcoin is the first easily accessible, relatively widespread technology that can circumvent restrictions on currency exchange set by governments. I'm thinking about China where you are not allowed to freely exchange CNY for USD, unless you're very important. And their government is printing CNY faster than the feds are printing USD because they are trying to deflate their own internal housing bubble and at the same time make sure Chinese products' price (in USD) stays low enough. Or Iran, for what matters. This could have an important side effect: if you keep constantly changing back and forth from your national currency to bitcoins, after a while you start thinking of prices of goods in bitcoins. So I envision a distant future where bitcoins (or a successor of them) are the worldwide currency of reference. Albeit for most people in the short term bitcoins mainly are a crazy speculation toy. They could also be built seamlessly into the system in a way that doesn't have you thinking in bitcoin prices or the prices in other currencies. That seems to be how things work on the Atlantis Black Market, prices are in dollars, bitcoins are what you pay with. It wouldn't be too hard for a site to give the prices for items in the native currencies of any number of people while still having payment in bitcoin. |
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Looks like I was wrong about $120 and $125...or did someone actually dump a lot of coins around that price?  (I've been asleep, good morning) We haven't hit 125 |
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I am watching a wall that was at 123, then moved down a bit, then back up, and has pretty clearly been pushing the market up to the askwall at 125. Whoever it is is definitely manipulating the herd fairly well. I'm kind of impressed. They did quite a few legitimate buys, which they clearly plan to recoup when the two walls collide.
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Its a bit early to throw in the towel yet Babylon, bitcoins are process and there is gradual progress happening all the time. Don't expect instant results, it will take years
I've been involved with them for years. There used to be a bitcoin e-bay, now there is not. There used to be more escrow services than there are now. It feels like we are further from the sort of potential I thought it had than we wee back when it cost less than a dollar to buy a bitcoin. I haven't given up, I just wouldn't call myself a true believer. |
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All this China hype is nothing more than a trap before we continue sliding further down.
Clearly you were captain of your high school debating team. he just wants cheap coins. It is hard to debate convincingly when you don't believe it. |
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Oh, and I am no longer a true believer. I thought bitcoins could revolutionize finance and make it free. Currently the only thing you can buy better with bitcoins than fiat is drugs (at least as far as I can tell) I'm all in favor of a reliable way to conduct online drug deals, but I had a LOT more hope for Bitcoin than that.
I still think they're going to keep going up for a while yet though.
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