Good to know thanks.

I believe about 60% of bitcoin mining hash power is in China. Concerns that the epidemic is going to affect mining operations and delivery of new mining hardware as halving approaches?

Technical analysis does not have to be too complicated for those trading long term (over six month time frame.) A very simple indicator would have gotten you long at all the significant bottoms over the last 5 years. Just put up a 3 day BTC/USD chart using Bitstamp. Overlay the RSI indicator. Buy when RSI is under 23 and hold. I am surprised not that many analysts have recommended this setup. These signals are infrequent but worth the wait. Exiting is also easy though not as accurate: when RSI is over 92 it is a very good idea to lighten up on your longs.

Thank you for the kind words. I have found Fibonacci extensions to be very valuable in projecting price action. Times have changed since the last parabolic rise and history does not have to repeat itself. Bitcoin still reigns with highest market cap and first mover advantage. I give odds about 60% that we will see a new ATH within the next two years and the first Fibonacci extension projection is at $24166.



There are some hurdles to overcome first. Ten grand is a significant first psychological barrier then when that falls and holds on volume we can start thinking about a new ATH. Times have changed and futures on bitcoin may tend to dampen a new parabolic rise. I don't see prices higher than $25000 impossible though, just lower probability over the next year or two.

The next higher Fibonacci extension past 1.27 is the 1.618 at $29,890. I don't think $100,000 is impossible within the next two years, just low probability. I would be happy with steady growth and adoption with real use of the Lightning network. Thirty thousand in three years but I could be too conservative: would be glad to be proven wrong.

Never sell all your BTC. Even if life requires you to raise cash please try to keep some you can afford to lose for that next parabolic rise in price.

Mixers don't work. Chain analysis companies have been able to track bitcoin through mixers for some time now.

Bitcoin can drop 900-1000 dollars over five days and not damage the bull market. That's what happened from Jan 18 to Jan 23 and many new users think the sky is falling (veterans buy the dip) then price recovers. Right now price could decline to the middle daily BBand about $9000 at any time. $10,000 will come soon enough. Consider any pullback a buying opportunity.

BTC/USD still trying to break out of the long term Fibonacci zone of resistance at $9273 to $9442. These are the two key long term Fibonacci resistance levels drawn from two different major swing highs to swing lows. Waiting for a weekly close above $9442.



Point and figure charting is time agnostic. The daily PnF chart gave a buy signal at $9262 next one will be at $10424.

While holding $9000 is welcome the daily BBands are sloping up so many traders are going to be looking to buy if price drops to the middle BBand at $8900.

Thanks @owlcatz great photo! Mine came in today and that lucite holder weighs about a pound and measures 10" by 6". I was really impressed that Polymerbit was able to source 5th series 1000 Swiss Franc notes in such good condition to work with. You can see the hidden codes added by Polymerbit explained in this post.

Thanks @chronicsky. I had been waiting for over a year for one of the Allegory of Death: Revisited notes to come up for auction.

$9273 to $9442 is a zone of strong resistance predicted from multiple Fibonacci retracements. I would be happy with a green weekly candle TBH.

My bid was Lot 4 @ 0.042 BTC

Lot 4 @ 0.042 BTC

Minimum Bid Increment : 0.002 BTC per OP

Lot 4 @ 0.037 BTC

Of course, I never implied they did not. I have been using Fibonacci extensions and retracements for many years. They are much more useful than Elliott Wave. That is an example of an indicator that has a good track record with bitcoin, like 3 day RSI. Elliott Wave is dismal for bitcoin. PnF is very good as is Ichimoku.

Elliott Wave is not that useful for trading cryptos IMO. Too many alternate wave counts. You are better off just waiting for a strong trend, buying on a pullback and using your judgment as a trader on where to set your stop losses and when to take profits. During the last bull run Fibonacci extensions were quite useful in setting profit targets, as was the 3 day RSI. Spend some time learning point and figure charting rather than Elliott Wave you will be rewarded.

Really the simple indicators can be all you need in a strong bull market. Take a look at the weekly BTC/USD Bitstamp chart and put up 50 and 200 simple moving averages. Look at the last bull market. That was a strong bull run and just trading the moving averages you would have gone long at $300 and exited at $9000. Now few expected a blow off top at $19666 but if you also monitored the 3 day RSI you could have held your position until 3 day RSI was over 92 and got out close to the top. You had warning to exit on the following dead cat bounce. Experienced traders went short then.

Again just following weekly 3 day RSI when that indicator dropped below 23 in January 2015 that was a clear signal to start opening longs. Anyone who did has been well rewarded. That ended the bear market. We are currently in a bull market but sentiment right now is neutral. You should have already bought thousands of dollars ago. If you want to go long now just dollar cost average or watch the 3 day RSI and start buying when that indicator is oversold at 30.

Don't follow anyone blindly you will likely get burnt. Learn to analyze markets yourself and make your own trading decisions. Input from other technicians is useful but take responsibility for your own trades. Stay away from day trading because the pros who actually do it for a living will eat you for a light snack. Concentrate on longer time frames. If you are too lazy to do the work just buy and hold.

Lot 1: 123
Lot 2: 71
Lot 3: 46

Lot 1: 121
Lot 2: 71
Lot 3: 46