It's commonly quoted that the hashrate will double when the first production of ASICs are all online giving total hashrate: ~44 Thash/s
And of course the mining payout will halve to 3600BTC
Nope... It will be more like 15-20x the current hashrate We don't know for sure what it will be yet  I think it's useful to see in black and white what the rewards are under these different hashrates. Total network hashrate (20x current): 4400 Thash/s, 3600 BTC daily reward rate Daily payout per Thash/s: ~8 BTC Ghash/s: ~0.009 BTC Jalapeno: ~0.034 BTC SC, Avalon, et. al. : 0.42 BTCIf we look at the scenario of profitability settling in the 5-10% ROI region in line with most other businesses, I still think that there will be a lot of 'casual' miners who decide to keep their 1st gen. ASIC, because hey, it's paid for and still generating coin. I think the 'casual' miners will drop off at the next hardware iteration and the business minded players will be largely the only ones buying future improved hardware. |
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One of its legs is both the same.
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If I win can I have any colour I like ... as long as it's white?
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I read something that someone (can't remember where) was saying here on the forums that with the looming block reward halving soon in December, the BTC/$ has to go up at least a little to make up for this. This makes a lot of sense to me and I hope it turns out to be true. Hopefully it will increase enough to make our ASIC investments more profitable than ~$10/day.
I think that's hopeful to be honest, if you look at it another way, all the people who have got big multi-GPU rigs and FPGA hardware are the people that are going to buy ASICs some time over the next 6 months. I only have ~850mh/s myself and get ~0.3 BTC a day. The hardware to do this cost ~$650, so for my $650 I get ~$3 per day right this moment. I suspect that if I buy an ASIC for ~$1200 in 6 months I will be rewarded with ~$6 per day. You may get an average of $10 per day in the first 3-4 months but I think it will drop to $6 a day once everyone who wants one has one. I think there is an equilibrium. Of course this goldrush for the early adopter big money is going to attract new miners when people see crazy hashrates and pool payouts posted here in the first month or 2, so the price of BTC will have to go up if everyone gets their $6 a day. Another good thing is that ASIC will be the only way to mine realistically, and there will be a lot of people who have bought expensive single-purpose mining gear financially committed to keeping bitcoin afloat, and the only way they can do it is by not selling BTC on the exchanges below their personal profit threshold. Interesting times indeedy |
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I don't get why you grouped together all SCs/Avalons/Etc, when they all mine at different numbers of gH/s. Wouldn't they all produce different amounts of BTC per day in correlation to their speed or am I missing something?
I've tried to round off to do a rough 'get the ballpark figure' type calculation. I just put them all at 50gh/s for simplicity's sake. It's the sort of thing I do on the back of a cigarette packet to see if it's worth even quoting for a job in my trade. |
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Yes the jalapeno is more of a novelty item and I will probably sell mine as soon as I get it if someone will offer me enough (I'm definitely in the first shipment). Yes the rewards will be low with such a high difficulty but you have to remember that the electricity consumption difference is what is going to make this new era of mining so freaking interesting. The fact is most people will not even notice any difference in their utility bills whether or not they are running asics 24/7. Now this is assuming all of these performance specs are legit.
It's a shame they're not a bit cheaper, they'd make a brilliant present for a geeky kid - run your own open source pocket money machine Maybe they'll be the right sort of price by next christmas once the hardware people have recouped their wafer design costs. |
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Hey slush, I've got about 16 days and 16 hours of uptime of proxy program, I've lost almost i'd say 12 hours of mining time, maybe even more, i have no idea. My gpu's have been working for nothing. on the proxy program, i see errors of 2012-09-30 04:45:12,878 INFO proxy jobs.add_template # New job for prevhash 962b
aa16
and some other errors, which i did not grab *facepalm* I closed the proxy program and opened it, i guess it is working again. Nope, its down for the count gr. 2012-09-30 05:02:52,448 INFO proxy jobs.add_template # New job for prevhash ecd5
c1bd
This is a major fallback, if the proxy starts spitting out errors, there is no way for the proxy program to tell the gpus to stop working resulting in the gpu's work for nothing, burning electric. Edit: I switched back to normal interface mining "Server:Slush's pool" rather 127.0.0.1. Edit2: Lost roughly 10 hours of making btc and burning electric for nothing. Does this mean you can't get your miner to 'poolhop' back to the normal slush pool when you get this problem? |
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Yes, you are on the right track. Now see what happens if you then multiply that 44 x 5 to give you 10 times today's difficulty. Realistically that's where we are headed within 3 months after the reward halve. After that the difficulty will just keep getting higher and higher.
Total network hashrate (10x): 220 Thash/s, 3600 BTC daily reward rate Daily payout per Thash/s: ~16.4 BTC Ghash/s: ~0.017 BTCJalapeno: ~0.068 BTCSC, Avalon, et. al. : 0.85 BTCSo once the dust settles the Jalapeno doesn't really seem worth buying to me, it doesn't add anything of consequence to the network and earns about as much as going on one of the 'free bitcoin' sites? |
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I want to put out some rough ballpark figures to help me understand the division of mining rewards post ASIC:
Total mining payout per day: 7200 BTC
Total network hashrate (current): 22.168 Thash/s
Daily payout per
Thash/s: ~325BTC
Ghash/s: ~0.325BTC
( Mhash/s: ~0.0003BTC)
It's commonly quoted that the hashrate will double when the first production of ASICs are all online giving total hashrate: ~44 Thash/s
And of course the mining payout will halve to 3600BTC
Daily payout per
Thash/s: ~83BTC
Ghash/s: ~0.083BTC
So assuming double hashrate the Jalapeno would earn ~0.35BTC per day, and the bASIC, SC, Avalon, etc. would be in the average region of 4.5BTC a day.
Is this about right?
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Should CPA close down operations and buy back shares / make a final dividend payment?
Yes. |
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Yeah, I just tought of how norway has a lot of heavy metall bands, exporting the music to all of the world. Such bunkers far from people, must be the ideal place for such bands to exercise. Hehe.
You could concrete them in to stop all your old churches getting burned down ;P |
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I am under the impression the difficulty can only ever increase by a maximum of 4x.
Really? |
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I think it will inspire confidence, especially if the Bitcoin Foundation can get talking to journalists looking to report on the story.
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I mean in other applications that already exist, how big does the difference tend to be
They've been tested on SHA256 or SHA2 already I have seen an academic study paper. It was linked on here, but good luck trawling through a 30 page BFL trollfest finding it.... |
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Well as Norway's got plenty of oil it should be in a good bargaining position with all the biggest economies if/when this peak-oil energy crisis a lot of people are predicting starts to take effect.
I agree the bunkers should be re-purposed though, what a waste! There is an old Bunker system near where I live, originally an Ammunitions factory/store. I had a tour round it a couple of years ago when I was looking for somewhere to build a soundstage, the problem was that the army now use it for live ammo training and we were warned that the SAS could burst in any time without warning.
Although I had the feeling my leg was being pulled a little, I passed on the opportunity because my work involves recording choirs, and some choristers are quite old and might not survive the fright!
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Do you think there is a real threat of Russian invasion of Norway? What is the common view amongst Norwegians?
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Can you try to download msvcrt90.dll and put it into proxy directory? I'm wondering what's wrong, this library whould be in WinXP already...
I downloaded the redistributable Visual C++ package from MSCDN and it's all good now. It's a very basic install of windows with no extra programs and most of the services turned off, maybe I disabled something I shouldn't have by mistake or maybe the C++ library is so commonly installed by other applications you wouldn't know it's not there by default. |
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Hi can anyone run the Stratum proxy on Win32/XP? The .exe file won't run for me :S
Proxy is compiled on 32bit system, although I cannot test it on WindowsXP  . What error do you get? Maybe it is linked with some DLL not presented on XP, which I can distribute with package. In Event Viewer: Dependent Assembly Microsoft.VC90.CRT could not be found Edit - Downloading Microsoft Visual C++ libraries now... 2nd edit - Fixed |
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Hi can anyone run the Stratum proxy on Win32/XP? The .exe file won't run for me :S
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I'm in the process of having a programmer switch my payment process in order to send out a proportional payment to everyone. This should hopefully be completed by Monday. This way everyone would receive a payment every time I send them out.
Thanks. |
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