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A BIG Thank You to squall1066 for the BTC10 investment!
This loan is now past the 70% mark and is guaranteed to fund, only 2 days and BTC12.61307 left!
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Thanks for the help Sharman, scatha, and CaptChadd!
We are getting close to the goal folks, but only 3 days are left!
BTC22.61357 left to 100%, only BTC7.21357 until minimum funding!
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And fryartuck joins the party, hopefully he brought mead!
As an update on my business plan, I will not be investing in BTCINVEST as they have been kind enough to extend me a BTC35 line of credit. Payment terms on that line of credit were made with this loan in mind and will not in any way impact repayment. This allows me to diversify across more funds on more exchanges and should lower my overall risk, further enhancing my ability to repay this loan.
My current estimate is that repayment of this loan should take less than 6 months, which given the BTCJam payment model will increase the effective rate to 20% APR or better if repayment is accelerated further.
Only BTC23.26357 Left!
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Oh well sorry, apparently i do that sometimes.
I did not actually realize that this is being an asshole. I will try to adjust assholeness level downwards.
Thanks, there are enough folks on this forum who don't make an effort. The answer of 500 Qn that you came up with is a bit odd to me, it does not directly reflect the actual number of currency units, nor does it use them as a basis with a defined inflation formula, it's just a big number. I think my version of the the real answer might sound a bit Zen, but I'll give it a shot anyhow: We need as many money units as we need, in the sizes we need.So if someone invents a market that trades individual hydrogen atoms (cut me in) we will need a massive number of very very small units, interstellar trade would tend to need very large units. But it makes no sense to use a single currency for these very diverse uses, and it certainly is not a likely future. I think we will continue to have more currencies as we find more and more ways to capture and quantify value, and given current trends we are going to be able to quantify a lot of value in the future. |
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EDIT: Wait a minute!
1 Bn (1,000,000,000) times 10,000 is 10,000,000,000,000, or 10 thousand billion , or 10 million million. You would have to have 10 million billion (10,000,000,000,000,000) before you got to a 10 Quadrillion.
Please double-check this, but I think you got an extra set of zeros in yours.
You did it again, you did not read with understanding. Of course i Have 2 extra zeros in mine, because i counted the pennys ! I did all the counting on a calculator (I don't trust my mind completely as minds are tricky things) so you can be sure my calculations are correct. Oh, I understood that part just fine, but you don't need enough pennies to cover every bank account on the entire planet, so talking about M2 is a strawman, M1 is much closer and it's almost the same as satoshis, and that's assuming that we would need a penny sized denomination, just like it assumes that nobody would just invent something new/local/different once the supply is too constrained (or maybe even well before then...) I would appreciate it if you would quit trying to be an asshole, my math was correct. |
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Thanks Kontakt, Eternell and Mnemonix!
Only BTC23.26 left!
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According your source ( http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h6/20121108/) : 10122.6 billions (i assume that it's US short-scale billions) = 10126.8 x 1,000,000,000 = 10 126 800 000 000 ===================== 10,126,800,000,000 + 00 (pennys) Quadrillion (US short scale) = 1,000,000,000,000,000 (Current M2 With pennys) == 1,012,680,000,000,000 total currency units EDIT: So you are NOT correct. It is quadrillions.And also, we were NOT talking about dollars, but ALL MONEY IN EXISTENCE. So first read with understanding and then discuss. Wait 6 days and then go all big bold typing ballistic, nice. I know how long bad math can survive on this forum now. Thanks for pointing it out, I guess. I made a mistake when lining up my zeros, sorry about that. The exercise AND the link were both relevant to the conversion, but nobody was linking to ANY FREAKING DATA, they were pulling numbers out of thin air far as I could tell. I suppose I also should have said FRB M1 instead of USA. If you have links to any more relevant data or opinions it would be great, I'll fix my post and update my comments to reflect the correct math.EDIT: Wait a minute!1 Bn (1,000,000,000) times 10,000 is 10,000,000,000,000, or 10 thousand billion , or 10 million million. You would have to have 10 million billion (10,000,000,000,000,000) before you got to a 10 Quadrillion. Please double-check this, but I think you got an extra set of zeros in yours. If you want to go up to a global M1 number it is still in the Trillions scale, I doubt the planet has had a money explosion (in USD value) since 2008 to put it too much higher than the $19.2 Tn number from this article: http://dollardaze.org/blog/?post_id=00565Global M2 is estimated at $45 Tn in the same link. So unless the global economy grew 100X without us noticing it, the $5 Qn is either BS or a far future money supply. (let's not debate on the time scale, it's more than 10 years and less than 10,000 most likely before we see $5Qn.) |
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cgminer 2.9.7 I get an error "JSON not subscribed"
(leaving for a couple hours, I'll test again when I get back)
Fixed. Should accept connections now. up and hashing! I loved stratum on BTCGuild, I'm really happy to be able to use it for alts too! |
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cgminer 2.9.7 I get an error "JSON not subscribed" (leaving for a couple hours, I'll test again when I get back) |
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Thanks og2k!
Only BTC23.78651 left!
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BTC5.0 Thanks marc5!!
Update: You too User#298, ThaddeusB, and Evolyn, I will protect your bitcent scale investments as diligently as any other lender.
Thanks everyone for helping out, only BTC24.88 left!
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(Actually a line of credit, but it belongs in this section) Line of credit size: 35 BTC Line of credit address: 1G6Affj3gZWG1vsUN2Gw1Cc6XukJzmk9w Repayment address: 1MUZy8vUwkFneL9Y2ojY6mhAx8g4C97oFs Interest rate: 16% APR / 0.6563% bimonthly Loan periods close on the 4th and 18th of each month, interest payments due on the subsequent closing day. Carried interest will accrue interest and requires prior approval. Principal repayment: The creditor can choose to stop or reduce the line of credit, with a payment plan of the principal that is scaled proportionally to the line of credit taken. The full amount would mean a 90 day repayment period. For example, 17.5 BTC outstanding would mean a 45 day repayment period, while 3.5 BTC outstanding would result in a 9 day repayment period. While the interest payments are two or more months behind, a full repayment can be called and the debtor agrees to pay the full amount (principal + outstanding interest) within 30 days. The line of credit will be offered by BTCINVEST. Change of Terms The terms of this contract may be changed at any time only if both parties (creditor and debtor) agree to all changes on http://bitcointalk.org/I agree to these terms and will begin using this line of credit. Thanks TradeFortress! |
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BTC11.7 more funded for a total of BTC17.09!
Thanks Tulkas, Slyer, and ReesJ!
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BTC6.21 invested already, thanks wow86! How do you guarantee it?
It all comes down to my salary at my job as a Director at an IT company where I have been a fixture for over 10 years. I currently am transferring over $500/month to bitcoins and will continue doing so, earmarking loan repayment funds first, followed by other investments and holding. Ideally I will have sufficient returns to repay without touching my net-new investment cash each month, but I'm not relying on it. BTC1/week is super easy for me to pay back, if you need private reassurance please PM me and we can set up a conference call. EDIT: FYI, I also will be paying this back early rather than just holding idle BTC if things go to plan. I can't promise anything but I'll be surprised if this loan is still outstanding 6 months from now, maybe even 90 days if I ever get that ASIC gear I ordered. EDIT2: In response to a PM question; I have 2 loans on BTCJam that I repaid early, and I've been using this handle since 1992 so I really don't want to burn my reputation. My favorite is RFC1149 (or maybe the new IPv6 version in RFC6214.) (Thanks, that's the first time I've ever been asked for "Proof of Geek" before.)
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I'm looking to expand what I'm doing in the Bitcoin world and am willing to put my reputation (and a very small part of my paycheck) on the line for some leverage to help build a more rounded portfolio. To this end I'm opening a 48 BTC loan that I will be using to invest in a proprietary mix of BTC denominated securities, bonds, micro-loans, and arbitrage. I am not a professional investor so I do not feel justified offering an uncertain return through an exchange, but I can guarantee 1 BTC/week payments with my income, even if BTC hits $100 or more. Long Term Reinvestment LoanThis loan will be used to fund investments in Bitcoin denominated micro-loans and securities over a 1 year period. I will make early repayment of the loan from dividends and other profits as possible, but my primary goal is to maintain and grow my portfolio for the long term. (At no time will the initial loan principal be used for other purposes, including mining equipment, other Bitcoin denominated purchases, or payments on this or other loans.) To ensure repayment of this loan I will maintain a scheduled biweekly bank transfer for at least 2x of all BTCJam loan payments. Currently this transfer is sufficient for =< $68/BTC prices with my current loans and this policy, and I have available funds to more than double this if needed. Generally payments will be made 2 weeks in advance to allow for unforeseen issues without being late. As always, I am an avid member of the community and will not be going anywhere. If something happens to BTCJam I WILL make repayment through the BitcoinTalk forums. I'm cross posting this on bitcointalk here: https://btcjam.com/listings/1352This link is live on BTCJam, please have a look! Edit: The effective APR is 10.4% in BTC assuming I take the full term to pay off the loan. |
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Well, now that Avalon apparently shipped, would you like to give an estimate on when we start hashing and how many TH/s are we looking at?
I don't see the correlation between a competitors shipment and the availability of that information. If I have 3 apples, how many oranges do you have? I'm getting 2 oranges tomorrow, since we are comparing fruit delivery timetables. I'm glad you already have your apples, enjoy them. Same thing with ASIC, the question could be stated as "Since your competitor has just achieved a milestone, we would like and update with regards to the next milestone we can expect from this project." This is an EXTREMELY common question in the IT business, I doubt it is that unusual in most cases where you have innovators competing to ship a new innovation. Framing is important, so let me ask it like this: Freidcat, would you please post an brief note on what the current status of the project is and when the next milestone worth announcing will happen? Thanks! |
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I know the military can't break the laws of physics and I know you have no idea the scale you are talking about. We aren't talking about "wow this GPU is 3x as fast as last years" we are talking about energy usage on the scale of sending an intersteller spacecraft to another star system to begin a human colony. At the thermodynamic limit (the limit of efficiency in storing information imposed by the laws of the universe) it would require an amount of energy more than 100,000 times greater than the global energy usage of the entire human last year just to count to 2^160. 160 bit can't be brute forced today, tomorrow, next century, and likely not anytime until material sciences become so advanced that they will threaten what you propose we upgrade to as well. Given that k = 1.38×10-16 erg/°Kelvin, and that the ambient temperature of the universe is 3.2°Kelvin, an ideal computer running at 3.2°K would consume 4.4×10-16ergs every time it set or cleared a bit. To run a computer any colder than the cosmic background radiation would require extra energy to run a heat pump. To count to 2^160 (just count 1,2,3 ... 2^160) using a perfect computer would require 6.43x10^32 ergs. To convert to a unit of power which is better known that is 1.78x10^16 kWh. A next generation nuclear reactor (1500 MW, 90% capacity factor) can produce 4.257*10^13 kWh annually. That means even if magical aliens gave us a perfect computer it would require ~420,000 reactor years to produce the energy necessary for it to count from 0 to 2^160. Remember this is merely counting to the number 2^160. To perform a brute force attack would require tens of thousands of operations per attempt. So lets ballpark it to say ~50,000 brand new nuclear reactors constructed and running continually to power nothing but this non-existent alien tech perfect computer for the next 10,000 years .... and it would still only have less than a 10% chance of brute forcing a Bitcoin address.So yes I know 160 bit keys won't be brute forced in the next 20 years. This quote applies to 256 bit keys but to a lesser extent it applies to 160bit hashes as well. These numbers have nothing to do with the technology of the devices; they are the maximums that thermodynamics will allow. And they strongly imply that brute-force attacks against 256-bit keys will be infeasible until computers are built from something other than matter and occupy something other than space. http://www.schneier.com/blog/archives/2009/09/the_doghouse_cr.html+2^160 Are you sure this calculations are correct ? Also, does "other currencies" contain gold & silver bullions + diamonds ? Even if these calculations are correct then we have roughly 5,000,000,000,000,000 (5 quadrillions in US scale or 5 trillions in normal scale) units of dollars in circulation. If you add 2 more zeros for penny, then we have =5,000,000,000,000,000,00 units of dollars vs 21,000,000,000,000,000 units of bitcoin So no, as you can see - it isn't enough. At least 2 zeros (or better 3) are missing from this picture. FYI, the fed does publish reports... http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h6/20121108/Look over here -----> Thousand = 1,000
Million = 1,000,000
Billion = 1,000,000,000
Trillion = 1,000,000,000,000
USA M1 (9/12) = 2,352,600,000,000
USA M2 (9/12) = 10,126,800,000,000
Quadrillion = 1,000,000,000,000,000
Satoshis = 2,100,000,000,000,000 There are NOT 5 Quadrillion Dollars, try again. |
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This thread has been dead for a couple of weeks but I'll give an update anyway on a fundamental change I have made in recent days. Trading logic is now dynamic, in that the logic that decides trades is now contained in the configuration file rather than being hardcoded. This gives the user far more flexibility with what algorithms to use in a trade decision. An explanation is contained in the README found here: And the latest jar file may now be found here: Trading logic may be changed on-the-fly with no need to restart the application if the configuration is changed. I suggest using the --clear-config=true option to reset the configuration and input the new values I'm still following, and occasionally running this. I'm really low on BTC until ASIC's eventually arrived (I'm SO glad I diversified my orders, at least I know I will have something, whenever it gets around to shipping) but I plan on feeding a small bot once it's a smaller portion of my portfolio. I really appreciate the continued work on this and think you just made an much needed improvement that should allow more to play with this more easily. If there is a relatively simple set of parameters that anyone has Identified and would liek to share as a starting point for others, Personally my settings have gotten so mangled that it doesn't fire for any conditions, so I'll be starting over again. Thanks! |
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