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1  Economy / Speculation / Re: Analysis never ends on: November 23, 2014, 09:07:37 PM
sub 300 you mean ? 1xx is a long way from here.

No, he means sub 200. And yes it is a long long way from here. Institutional investors will be buying hand over fist below 275.

I think it was a typo and he meant sub $300.

A retest of the lows is quite possible, but sub $200 seems far fetched.

I'm thinking sub $100 before this bear is over, but then again, I'm the crazy one who thinks the bear market still hasn't really even started Smiley

At sub $100 the 10 BTC you spend to become donator won't look too bad Cheesy

The master has gone to sleep again ...

Lol I know! Don't remind me...

Amazing how things can change over time, just not the forum software.

Oh well, I love theymos anyway Wink
2  Economy / Speculation / Re: Analysis never ends on: November 22, 2014, 10:05:43 PM
sub 300 you mean ? 1xx is a long way from here.

No, he means sub 200. And yes it is a long long way from here. Institutional investors will be buying hand over fist below 275.

I think it was a typo and he meant sub $300.

A retest of the lows is quite possible, but sub $200 seems far fetched.

I'm thinking sub $100 before this bear is over, but then again, I'm the crazy one who thinks the bear market still hasn't really even started Smiley
3  Economy / Speculation / Re: Analysis never ends on: November 13, 2014, 12:04:46 AM
Case #2. We had completed Historical 2 (from historical 1 $1200 high) in tripple zigzag wedge. And there should be some fucking impressive historical 3.


what does this mean?!??!!? is it bullish or bearish?

This scenario would be extremely bullish, and bullish for many years
4  Economy / Speculation / Re: Analysis never ends on: October 28, 2014, 12:54:11 AM
I don't know the future, but I do know the past (obviously, he sold at the very least into a local bottom), and we can infer that this person had no experience in trading given that he decided to sell everything at one single exchange (Bitstamp had a large price differential to the other exchanges) and the way he did it.

This is true
5  Economy / Speculation / Re: Analysis never ends on: October 26, 2014, 09:55:02 PM
Weaker hands than the guy who sells 30k BTC at the bottom of a downtrend on one exchange via a single ask? I can't even imagine those hands, they must be long dead. Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy

You never know - if Bitcoin falls an additionally from here and he buys them back cheaper, he's going to look like he has smart hands.

Don't assume you know the future.
6  Economy / Speculation / Re: Analysis never ends on: October 24, 2014, 06:20:33 PM
The bear market is well underway but damn I can't wait for a *real* crash to start. I thought maybe it would happen in October but I still haven't gotten the right setup yet. Maybe November or December now. We shall see.
7  Economy / Speculation / Re: Analysis never ends on: October 17, 2014, 07:29:33 PM
Deflation is spreading!

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-10-17/butter-prices-tumble-most-in-18-years-as-imports-climb.html
8  Economy / Scam Accusations / Re: Find Trendon Shavers in person thread... [BTCST, BTS&T, pirateat40] on: September 21, 2014, 10:38:11 AM
There is also a 100 page deposition on line of him testifying with out a lawyer incriminating himself of all sorts of crimes.  Idiot. Hopefully criminal charges and jail time will follow.

It will. The FBI is very interested in Shavers. The SEC case was just the civil case. The criminal case is coming next.
9  Economy / Speculation / Re: Analysis never ends on: September 19, 2014, 03:43:12 AM
Waiting for 2016 to make that happen....

Keeping this quote so I can post it in a few months and see the egg dripping from your face.

the doom and gloom around here right now is unbelievable.  There is absolutely no precedent for that whatsoever, in fact we can still head down into the 200s before falling out normal historical volatility levels.

Does noone remember the famous quote from buffett?

"Be greedy when others are fearful and fearful when others are greedy".

You all know which mode we are in now.

Except that the bear market hasn't even started yet. Stocks are at highs and I'm still waiting for my setup to short the hell out of them as deflation unfolds, the dollar soars, and all assets collapse. We're not quite there yet.

Remember: The ones that are up the most, are the ones that go down the most.
10  Economy / Speculation / Re: Analysis never ends on: August 14, 2014, 01:18:06 PM
Bitcoin is on one step from long dramatic selloff imho.

Global stocks are about to crash. This monopoly game is almost over and all money and property will be returned back to the box.

Agreed that we're on a cusp of a big sell off.

As for a 1929/1987-style crash, however, we're not there yet. Wait for a 3-of-3, which will take some time to get to.
11  Economy / Speculation / Re: Sentiment incredibly bearish on: March 30, 2014, 04:58:46 PM
'Sentiment incredibly bearish'? Come on... Sentiment is bearish, and this is normal in a bear market.
It's more bearish than I previously thought, so it seems that this bear market is going to resemble more 2011 than 2013.
But my EW count says that the market is still far from the very bottom. If 400$ will break during the next days and
there will be a rebound from that local bottom, only after that will the 'incredibly bearish' sentiment kick in.
Quoting from Wikipedia: Volume picks up, and by the third leg of wave C, almost everyone realizes that a bear market is firmly entrenched.

I agree with this. The error the OP is making is that he's using sentiment in a quantitative manner. However, the market is a fractal. To end a bear market, we need to see sentiment comensurately negative relative to the optimism seen near the highs. If you recall how insane this bubble/mania got, then you'll realize it's going to take one hell of a rout to properly retrace
12  Other / Off-topic / Re: Terrible Day on: February 19, 2014, 08:56:58 AM
I'm so sorry you're going through this.

If it makes you feel any better, I have had severe chronic pain (specifically, a condition known as chronic myofascial pain, similar to but not to be confused with fibromyalgia) for the last two and a half years. At its worst I could barely even walk and pretty much only morphine could help; I seriously considered suicide as a rational method of escaping the unrelenting physical agony. But thankfully I've been slowly improving with therapy (the Stanford/Wise-Anderson Protocol) and today I'm able to walk and drive a car again and as of Janurary I could finally get off the pain meds. I still have a long ways to go, however, before I beat this thing. So things can get better my friend. Don't give up yet, look into your treatment options. If you need someone to talk to, just pm me and i'll give you my number
13  Economy / Speculation / Re: Are there any other Optimistic Bears? on: February 17, 2014, 10:59:36 PM
It seems that opinions on Bitcoin are primarily divided into two categories:

(1) BULLS: People who grok Bitcoin, and thus are perma-bulls

(2) BEARS: People who do not grok Bitcoin, and thus are perma-bears

I would like to propose a third, new, much rarer category:

(3) OPTIMISTIC BEARS: People who grok Bitcoin and believe in its future, yet acknowledge that, at present, Bitcoin and especially alt-coins are still in the midst of a major speculative bubble that must deflate before the next growth phase can begin.

If you're in category 3, then please join me in this thread. Welcome to the home of the optimistic bears. I would like to hear from you.

Your definitions are completely wrong. That isnt even close to what the terms "bear" and "bull" mean, and the term "optimistic bear" is a meaningless oxymoron.


I guess we need to review this again.

Definition of 'Bear'

An investor who believes that a particular security or market is headed downward. Bears attempt to profit from a decline in prices. Bears are generally pessimistic about the state of a given market.
http://www.investopedia.com/terms/b/bear.asp



Definition of 'Bull'

An investor who thinks the market, a specific security or an industry will rise. Investors who takes a bull approach will purchase securities under the assumption that they can be sold later at a higher price.

A "bear" is considered to be the opposite of a bull. Bear investors believe that the value of a specific security or an industry is likely to decline in the future.
http://www.investopedia.com/terms/b/bull.asp



Why do people on this forum find that hard to grasp?  If you currently think the market is going to decline, your a bear, if you currently think it will go up, you are a bull.  Every investor will react to the market and alternate between bullish or bearish.  "Bull" and "bear" have nothing to do with your individual market philosophy, it is simply a reflection of where you currently think the price is going.


tl:dr There is no such thing as "permabear" or "permabull" or "optimistic bear"...those are a basterdization of terms by people who dont understand basic investment terms.


Wow evolve I had no idea that bulls think prices are going up, and bears think they're going down. Thanks for letting me know

That said, I clarified the OP slightly, because you are caught up in terms and obviously don't understand my partitioning and therefore the point I'm making
14  Economy / Speculation / Re: Are there any other Optimistic Bears? on: February 16, 2014, 03:01:31 PM
Just broke $266, which was the high of wave 3. This is significant for psychological reasons

And yet, in my estimation, and the coming mean-reversion bounces notwithstanding, the bear market in Bitcoin is just getting started
15  Economy / Speculation / Re: Analysis never ends on: February 16, 2014, 03:01:17 PM
Just broke $266, which was the high of wave 3. This is significant for psychological reasons

And yet, in my estimation, and the coming mean-reversion bounces notwithstanding, the bear market in Bitcoin is just getting started
16  Economy / Speculation / Re: Are there any other Optimistic Bears? on: February 14, 2014, 03:59:52 AM
Hit $302 on gox! Man, I love crashes. Now we just need the freaking U.S. markets to start playing catch-up and collapse already
17  Economy / Speculation / Re: What do you think the price of bitcoin will be 1 year from today (feb 2015)? on: February 08, 2014, 05:20:41 AM
Much lower
18  Economy / Speculation / Re: Analysis never ends on: February 07, 2014, 03:10:18 PM
Bitcoin plunges as major exchange halts withdrawals

http://money.cnn.com/2014/02/07/investing/bitcoin-withdrawal-halt/

Reading the comments, highest voted comments still think it's a scam/pyramid scheme etc. Good, I still have time to stack more coins  Grin Cheesy

Yeah very few of the general population grok bitcoin
19  Economy / Speculation / Re: Analysis never ends on: February 07, 2014, 02:57:30 PM
Bitcoin plunges as major exchange halts withdrawals

http://money.cnn.com/2014/02/07/investing/bitcoin-withdrawal-halt/
20  Economy / Speculation / Re: Are there any other Optimistic Bears? on: February 07, 2014, 02:56:41 PM
Bitcoin plunges as major exchange halts withdrawals

http://money.cnn.com/2014/02/07/investing/bitcoin-withdrawal-halt/

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