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701  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Bitcoin-Qt, bitcoind version 0.5.1 released on: December 18, 2011, 01:46:14 AM
i hadn't backed up my wallet for a while and just noticed that there is now a wallet.dat and a wallet.dat.rewrite in my Bitcoin folder.  which is the real private key wallet that needs to be backed up?

I believe .rewrite is the old wallet, which ideally should be "rewritten" over since it may hold unencrypted private keys as a result of a bug in the 0.4 wallet encryption code. Ideally though if you used the built in encryption prior to 0.5 you should transfer your coins to a new wallet in case the old one has leaked.
702  Economy / Goods / Re: 1oz American Eagle Gold Coin on: December 17, 2011, 09:28:11 PM
Shoot, was going to upload the picture today but forgot to bring my camera (I'm in office now). Picture is a bit blurry anyway as my digital camera is not very good. I'll try to upload it tonight anyhoo.

In any event, it's in perfect mint condition, still in a clear plastic bag. Honestly I would keep it, but I strongly prefer Bitcions to gold since they are more liquid and (IMO) carry more upside potential (and more risk).

What form of shipping do you recommed? Any details on insurance policies that you utilize when shipping gold?

Thanks

EDIT: Also, you can find recommendations for me on the "trustworthy traders" thread.
703  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Technical Support / Start Bitcoin on window system startup on: December 17, 2011, 12:59:29 AM
I checked this box on Bitcoin v0.5.1 on Win7 SP1, nothing happens after a long pause and then the box never actually checks.

The process is set to exempt from MSE so I don't think MSE is blocking any particular API call.

Any ideas?

Thanks
704  Economy / Speculation / Re: RALLY! on: December 16, 2011, 10:30:37 PM
Up, up, and awaaay!

SONIC BOOM!



705  Economy / Goods / [MOVED] 1oz American Eagle Gold Coin on: December 16, 2011, 10:25:35 PM
I have a 1oz gold coin that I'm looking to get rid of. PM me if interested.

EDIT - moved to https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=55343.0
706  Economy / Goods / Re: I am looking to buy 10 1oz silver coins on: December 16, 2011, 10:24:33 PM
I have a 1oz American Eagle gold coin that I'm looking to get rid of. PM me if interested.

707  Economy / Services / Re: How to profit from the stock market, doesn't matter which way the market goes on: December 14, 2011, 07:56:32 PM
This strategy does NOT rely on being able to predict the future.
All trading requires probabilistic forecasting.
Problem is.... no one can accurately forecast the future, that is.... if you are not an insider or member of congress.

I agree... And I think we actually agree on things, we're just defining terms here. 100% accuracy is impossible, but an effective trading system does not require this, all it needs is a tiny edge, and that's enough to consistently make money, until the underling market conditions that create the edge change.

So I think we're in agreement really. It's just a red button for me whenever people say things like "make money no matter what the market does" and "you will make millions" because people can easily overload if they believe this and blowup when their assumptions about drawdowns etc are forced to change with the market. Or they stop using the system during a bad DD, and thus lose money despite the contiuing profitabilty of the system. LTCM is a good example, or perhap an even better example is that fact the individual invstors tend to underperform the funds they invest in. There are many psychological traps that cause novice investors to lose money even in good systems, and unrealistic expectations are like gasoline on the fire.

That said, building trading systems is a great and rewarding enterprise but if you've been around the block long enough you develop a healthy sense of realism about it, and realize that effective money management is key. It's one thing thing to theorize and backtest but another to continue to have success applying a method into the unknown future. That's really my only point here. Honestly though I believe your system probably has a nice edge, or else you wouldn't be so excited about it, and I wish you the best applying it into the future. And yes, I am curious of course Smiley
708  Economy / Services / Re: How to profit from the stock market, doesn't matter which way the market goes on: December 14, 2011, 07:23:25 PM
I think people are often so hopeful for "the perfect system" that they overlook the underlying forecast and thus don't clearly identify the risk. A strategy could be forecasting a spread or any number of future things without directly forecasting price targets, but it is still a prediction.
What about arbitrage? Having money in 2 exchanges, and doing a market transfer on both at the same time, does not incur a lot of risk.

This is actually a really good point, since although philisophically the answer is the same, in practicality you're right this is basically free money. So my above answer really is applicable to the larger markets where this type of oportunity is already arbitraged out of the market, or in the arena of a single exchange treated as a closed system.
709  Economy / Services / Re: How to profit from the stock market, doesn't matter which way the market goes on: December 14, 2011, 05:42:10 AM

Btw totally unrelated, but I'm a real fan of your show. That's where I learned about The Real Plato, and eventually I met up with him in Las Vegas Smiley. Good times... We introduced Bitcoins to Penn and Teller
710  Economy / Services / Re: How to profit from the stock market, doesn't matter which way the market goes on: December 14, 2011, 05:23:38 AM
True but not "as true" for some things.  Let's say you sell a covered call.  Then you take your profits + premium and you are done.  True - you are guessing/hoping the stock stays put or goes down so you do not have to cover the call.  But, worst case you make your money and then have to cover the call and you don't make as much "as you could have".  So it could be said that you don't really care what happens in the future once you sell the call.

Basically the same thing as just selling the stock.  Once you sell it you have taken your profit and can only kick yourself for not having kept it longer.

If the underlying stock falls more than your premium, you lose money, so the forecast is that the premiums will make up for the drawdowns over time. ( In reality though you would need to be more specific with the forecast if you wanted to actually use the system. )

I've heard many money managers adamantly state that they don't predict the future, they just "manage the proccess" or "react" to the market, but the plain reality is that all trading involves prediction of some aspect of the market. Understanding this and knowing the exact nature of your forecast in a statistical sense is the real key to successful trading, because once you understand this then trading system design becomes merely a way to exploit that particlar market tendency, along with managing money based on the distribution of the individual trades, and rules for determining system burnout.

I think people are often so hopeful for "the perfect system" that they overlook the underlying forecast and thus don't clearly identify the risk. A strategy could be forecasting a spread or any number of future things without directly forecasting price targets, but it is still a prediction.
711  Economy / Services / Re: How to profit from the stock market, doesn't matter which way the market goes on: December 14, 2011, 04:20:04 AM
This strategy does NOT rely on being able to predict the future.

All trading requires probabilistic forecasting.
712  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Technical Support / Wallet security and inheritance on: December 11, 2011, 11:43:36 PM
So I am infamously an early adopter who stored a lot of bitcoins on MyBitcoin, which of course were stolen.

This time around I wish to keep them secure! So here is what I have done, please let me know how secure I am being, and if there's anything else I can do:

(1) Created a password-protected wallet with 20 addresses using a 20+ char password with a mix of letter, symbols, numbers

(2) send all my old btc to one of the addresses in this wallet

(3) copied the wallet.dat, renamed to obfuscate, and encrypted again with 7-zip ( a different password, but only 10+ chars this time ). uploaded this to several servers as a backup. [main purpose is to obfuscate the fact that it's even a wallet at all]

(4) never use the password for my local wallet (i.e. *assume* that I have a keylogger installed). yet, use this password at boot time (for TrueCrypt), which means I will not forget it (which would be a bigger problem than theft)

(5) created a second wallet for "checking", which I do enter the password from time-to-time the client to spend bitcoins

(6) if I ever need to tap my savings wallet, I will use a linux liveCD to ensure that I do not have a keylogger tracing the password. I simply send coins over to checking)

(7) use btcbalance.net to monitor the addresses regularly

Not sure what else I can do to be safe. Any other ideas would be greatly appreciated, thanks!

[Btw, the last step which I haven't done, is to find a way to relinquish control of the coins to the persons(s) I have outlined in my will. I'm thinking right now I just have to  trust someone with the information. But in the future, a cool idea might be a time-release data website of some sort, where a family member would use their login to check for information -- information which I put in for them yet which I must login every 6 months or something to keep the timer reset so they cannot access it. If I don't login in a 6-month period, I'm presumed dead, and they get the necessary info to access their inherited coins.]
713  Economy / Services / Re: How to profit from the stock market, doesn't matter which way the market goes on: December 08, 2011, 05:39:38 AM
Give me $100.  I'm raising funds for a company for carrying out an undertaking of great advantage, but nobody to know what it is. Smiley
Lol. What's the return for me???
I am offering a legit system for YOU to profit.

If you have a good system, you could make a lot of money starting a fund or selling/leasing it to existing funds. Have you considered this?
714  Economy / Services / Re: How to profit from the stock market, doesn't matter which way the market goes on: December 07, 2011, 10:51:54 PM
You can pick your own, or I can provide you with examples.
To the trollers, laugh all you can. This is a really smart way to make money. I've talked to folks who traded for 40 yrs, and still don't know about this method that I use.

Post more stats -- your drawdowns, a chart of what your returns looks like, your sharp ratio, what % of the time you spend in the market (always fully invested, or is it dynamic). What basket do you run it on? Is it 100% automated? What platform do you use? How do you determine system burnout?
 
There's a LOT more information you would need to post before anyone would take this seriously.
715  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: What % of your liquid wealth is in BTC? on: December 05, 2011, 05:29:22 PM
I have about 10% of my wealth in forms of pure Bitcoins, but if you count having stocks in for example GLBSE that have been purchased and traded in Bitcoins. Then it's probably closer to around 50%.

Yes I would include those since they're bitcoin denominated
716  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: What % of your liquid wealth is in BTC? on: December 04, 2011, 10:26:50 PM
I plan to set aside a portion of my paycheck for bitcoins.  Maybe 20% of each paycheck.



I am doing the same thing
717  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / What % of your liquid wealth is in BTC? on: December 04, 2011, 10:02:49 PM
Just curious Smiley

I already voted, it's 2%. That means 98% liquid wealth in USD, gold, etc and 2% in BTC.

Note that "liquid wealth" does not include your house or your car, etc. It's simply financial assets that can be quickly sold for cash.

I'm hoping to get this up to 4% soon, since I'm really prefering BTC to any other financial asset. But there's risk by concentrating too much in any asset of course
718  Other / Politics & Society / Senate Moves To Allow Military To Intern Americans Without Trial on: November 28, 2011, 04:26:18 PM
http://www.infowars.com/senate-moves-to-allow-military-to-intern-americans-without-trial/


Senate Moves To Allow Military To Intern Americans Without Trial

NDAA detention provision would turn America into a “battlefield”


Paul Joseph Watson
Infowars.com
Monday, November 28, 2011

The Senate is set to vote on a bill today that would define the whole of the United States as a “battlefield” and allow the U.S. Military to arrest American citizens in their own back yard without charge or trial.

“The Senate is going to vote on whether Congress will give this president—and every future president — the power to order the military to pick up and imprison without charge or trial civilians anywhere in the world. The power is so broad that even U.S. citizens could be swept up by the military and the military could be used far from any battlefield, even within the United States itself,” writes Chris Anders of the ACLU Washington Legislative Office

Under the ‘worldwide indefinite detention without charge or trial’ provision of S.1867, the National Defense Authorization Act bill, which is set to be up for a vote on the Senate floor this week, the legislation will “basically say in law for the first time that the homeland is part of the battlefield,” said Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.), who supports the bill.

The bill was drafted in secret by Senators Carl Levin (D-Mich.) and John McCain (R-Ariz.), before being passed in a closed-door committee meeting without any kind of hearing. The language appears in sections 1031 and 1032 of the NDAA bill.

“I would also point out that these provisions raise serious questions as to who we are as a society and what our Constitution seeks to protect,” Colorado Senator Mark Udall said in a speech last week. One section of these provisions, section 1031, would be interpreted as allowing the military to capture and indefinitely detain American citizens on U.S. soil. Section 1031 essentially repeals the Posse Comitatus Act of 1878 by authorizing the U.S. military to perform law enforcement functions on American soil. That alone should alarm my colleagues on both sides of the aisle, but there are other problems with these provisions that must be resolved.”

This means Americans could be declared domestic terrorists and thrown in a military brig with no recourse whatsoever. Given that the Department of Homeland Security has characterized behavior such as buying gold, owning guns, using a watch or binoculars, donating to charity, using the telephone or email to find information, using cash, and all manner of mundane behaviors as potential indicators of domestic terrorism, such a provision would be wide open to abuse.

“American citizens and people picked up on American or Canadian or British streets being sent to military prisons indefinitely without even being charged with a crime. Really? Does anyone think this is a good idea? And why now?” asks Anders.

The ACLU is urging citizens to call their Senator and demand that the Udall Amendment be added to the bill, [Ed: but pass the bill!] a change that would at least act as a check to prevent Americans being snatched off the streets without some form of Congressional oversight.

We have been warning for over a decade that Americans would become the target of laws supposedly aimed at terrorists and enemy combatants. Alex Jones personally documented how U.S. troops were being trained to arrest U.S. citizens in the event of martial law during urban warfare training drills back in the 90′s.  Under the National Defense Authorization Act bill, no declaration of martial law is necessary since Americans would now be subject to the same treatment as suspected insurgents in places like Afghanistan and Iraq.

If you thought that the executive assassination of American citizens abroad was bad enough, now similar powers will be extended to the “homeland,” in other words, your town, your community, your back yard.

*********************

Paul Joseph Watson is the editor and writer for Prison Planet.com. He is the author of Order Out Of Chaos. Watson is also a regular fill-in host for The Alex Jones Show.
719  Other / Politics & Society / Re: Audit of the Federal Reserve Reveals $16 Trillion in Secret Bailouts on: November 18, 2011, 12:53:44 AM
Isn't that old information? 

The funny thing is that, despite the secret help from the Fed, several of those British banks collapsed into the hands of the state anyway and us British taxpayers are still on the hook for close to a trillion pounds. 

True, I've been sick since the summer so I guess I've missed the news lately.
720  Other / Politics & Society / Audit of the Federal Reserve Reveals $16 Trillion in Secret Bailouts on: November 17, 2011, 06:08:32 PM
The shit is hitting the fan

http://www.unelected.org/audit-of-the-federal-reserve-reveals-16-trillion-in-secret-bailouts

The first ever GAO(Government Accountability Office) audit of the Federal Reserve was carried out in the past few months due to the Ron Paul, Alan Grayson Amendment to the Dodd-Frank bill, which passed last year. Jim DeMint, a Republican Senator, and Bernie Sanders, an independent Senator, led the charge for a Federal Reserve audit in the Senate, but watered down the original language of the house bill(HR1207), so that a complete audit would not be carried out. Ben Bernanke(pictured to the left), Alan Greenspan, and various other bankers vehemently opposed the audit and lied to Congress about the effects an audit would have on markets. Nevertheless, the results of the first audit in the Federal Reserve’s nearly 100 year history were posted on Senator Sander’s webpage earlier this morning:  http://sanders.senate.gov/newsroom/news/?id=9e2a4ea8-6e73-4be2-a753-62060dcbb3c3

What was revealed in the audit was startling: $16,000,000,000,000.00 had been secretly given out to US banks and corporations and foreign banks everywhere from France to Scotland. From the period between December 2007 and June 2010, the Federal Reserve had secretly bailed out many of the world’s banks, corporations, and governments. The Federal Reserve likes to refer to these secret bailouts as an all-inclusive loan program, but virtually none of the money has been returned and it was loaned out at 0% interest. Why the Federal Reserve had never been public about this or even informed the United States Congress about the $16 trillion dollar bailout is obvious — the American public would have been outraged to find out that the Federal Reserve bailed out foreign banks while Americans were struggling to find jobs.

To place $16 trillion into perspective, remember that GDP of the United States is only $14.12 trillion. The entire national debt of the United States government spanning its 200+ year history is “only” $14.5 trillion. The budget that is being debated so heavily in Congress and the Senate is “only” $3.5 trillion. Take all of the outrage and debate over the $1.5 trillion deficit into consideration, and swallow this Red pill: There was no debate about whether $16,000,000,000,000 would be given to failing banks and failing corporations around the world.

In late 2008, the TARP Bailout bill was passed and loans of $800 billion were given to failing banks and companies. That was a blatant lie considering the fact that Goldman Sachs alone received 814 billion dollars. As is turns out, the Federal Reserve donated $2.5 trillion to Citigroup, while Morgan Stanley received $2.04 trillion. The Royal Bank of Scotland and Deutsche Bank, a German bank, split about a trillion and numerous other banks received hefty chunks of the $16 trillion.

“This is a clear case of socialism for the rich and rugged, you’re-on-your-own individualism for everyone else.” – Bernie Sanders(I-VT)
 
When you have conservative Republican stalwarts like Jim DeMint(R-SC) and Ron Paul(R-TX) as well as self identified Democratic socialists like Bernie Sanders all fighting against the Federal Reserve, you know that it is no longer an issue of Right versus Left. When you have every single member of the Republican Party in Congress and progressive Congressmen like Dennis Kucinich sponsoring a bill to audit the Federal Reserve, you realize that the Federal Reserve is an entity onto itself, which has no oversight and no accountability.

Americans should be swelled with anger and outrage at the abysmal state of affairs when an unelected group of bankers can create money out of thin air and give it out to megabanks and supercorporations like Halloween candy. If the Federal Reserve and the bankers who control it believe that they can continue to devalue the savings of Americans and continue to destroy the US economy, they will have to face the realization that their trillion dollar printing presses will eventually plunder the world economy.

The list of institutions that received the most money from the Federal Reserve can be found on page 131 of the GAO Audit and are as follows..

Citigroup: $2.5 trillion ($2,500,000,000,000)
Morgan Stanley: $2.04 trillion ($2,040,000,000,000)
Merrill Lynch: $1.949 trillion ($1,949,000,000,000)
Bank of America: $1.344 trillion ($1,344,000,000,000)
Barclays PLC (United Kingdom): $868 billion ($868,000,000,000)
Bear Sterns: $853 billion ($853,000,000,000)
Goldman Sachs: $814 billion ($814,000,000,000)
Royal Bank of Scotland (UK): $541 billion ($541,000,000,000)
JP Morgan Chase: $391 billion ($391,000,000,000)
Deutsche Bank (Germany): $354 billion ($354,000,000,000)
UBS (Switzerland): $287 billion ($287,000,000,000)
Credit Suisse (Switzerland): $262 billion ($262,000,000,000)
Lehman Brothers: $183 billion ($183,000,000,000)
Bank of Scotland (United Kingdom): $181 billion ($181,000,000,000)
BNP Paribas (France): $175 billion ($175,000,000,000)
and many many more including banks in Belgium of all places

View the 266-page GAO audit of the Federal Reserve(July 21st, 2011): http://www.scribd.com/doc/60553686/GAO-Fed-Investigation

Source: http://www.gao.gov/products/GAO-11-696
FULL PDF on GAO server: http://www.gao.gov/new.items/d11696.pdf
Senator Sander’s Article: http://sanders.senate.gov/newsroom/news/?id=9e2a4ea8-6e73-4be2-a753-62060dcbb3c3
             
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