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1  Economy / Speculation / Re: Analysis on: August 03, 2016, 12:19:46 AM
Well at least we can't blame the panic sell-off on finex margined longs this time.
2  Economy / Speculation / Re: Lose all your capital fast, with MatTheCat and his TA 101A! on: July 30, 2016, 12:51:52 PM
I believe it, they tried to get in my acct I don't even use.  Someone's database got leaked from somewhere...

I have always said that crypto exchanges are guilty until proven innocent by default. 
3  Economy / Speculation / Re: Lose all your capital fast, with MatTheCat and his TA 101A! on: July 04, 2016, 04:51:32 PM
@MatTheCat, do you trade anything other than BTC?

Nope.....

Long term holder of precious metals, and that is about it. BTC is what got me into 'trading', something I have only very recently learned how to actually do properly, and am increasinlgy learning why Bitcoin is actually pretty horrible to trade, in comparison with stocks on regulated markets.

I agree re. crypto markets, just seems like you could carry over what you learned here to less manipulated markets, where you actually stand a chance. Unless this is some kind of Ahab/whale thing for you.

Crypto markets are a bit EASIER to trade imo.  Moves are more organic (albeit a bit more volatile) with fewer whipsaws, stop hunts, ect.  Machines and algos haven't overrun the crypto markets like they have the legacy markets... yet, but it's probably coming.  Anyway, buy-and-hold/dollar-cost-averaging has always been the real winner.  If you can't successfully trade bitcoin, then it is highly unlikely that you will successfully trade stocks.  Regulation doesn't matter.
4  Economy / Speculation / Re: Analysis on: June 23, 2016, 01:33:11 AM
Retracements should get shallower on the way up if it is a bull.  Last November's retrace was about .75.  .618 of this move would be around 566.  Looks like a good stopping point.
5  Economy / Speculation / Re: Guess what the price per Bitcoin would be on the Halving. on: May 19, 2016, 10:26:37 PM
$415 - the uptrend looks be rolling over.  Bitcoin consensus looks questionable at this point.  Mining is mostly centralized.  After 6 years, there is still no concrete vision of long term scalability. 

Of course this could easily be a bear trap... after all, the 21 million limit has yet to be compromised and looks to be set in stone.
6  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Altcoin Discussion / Re: DECENTRALIZED crypto currency (including Bitcoin) is a delusion (any solutions?) on: February 26, 2016, 04:55:55 PM
I'm with spartacusrex.  The ultimate test is for someone to pull of one of these (theoretical) attacks and catastrophically and irreparably damage the network in some way, or at least prove that one of the attacks can be used to consistently and successfully attack the network and/or individual users.  Until this test is completed, I'm going to assume that POS and other variations (DPOS) is sufficiently secure.  

Also, it would be in everyone's best interest if POS was broken sooner rather than later while valuations are low.  So please, if you have a guaranteed attack, go ahead and do it and prove POS useless.

I'd expect this happening only if there IS already multi billion business available to attack.... as usually always too late.    

My hope is - and thanks to TPTB - that here is platform to elaborate on this issues in public, cause that's the risk managament we all can afford.

Why multi-billion and not multi-million?  These chains are already valued in the multi-millions.  Also, some of these attacks are free or nearly free, so why not just go ahead and do it (unless of course it can't be done, which I suspect). 

Again, until someone demonstrates that these attacks are possible and can cause significant damage, then POS is deemed sufficiently secure. 

Hope you did not apply for some op-risk position at any reasonable company with that sentence above.

Still waiting.................
7  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Altcoin Discussion / Re: DECENTRALIZED crypto currency (including Bitcoin) is a delusion (any solutions?) on: February 26, 2016, 03:08:31 PM
I'm with spartacusrex.  The ultimate test is for someone to pull of one of these (theoretical) attacks and catastrophically and irreparably damage the network in some way, or at least prove that one of the attacks can be used to consistently and successfully attack the network and/or individual users.  Until this test is completed, I'm going to assume that POS and other variations (DPOS) is sufficiently secure.  

Also, it would be in everyone's best interest if POS was broken sooner rather than later while valuations are low.  So please, if you have a guaranteed attack, go ahead and do it and prove POS useless.

I'd expect this happening only if there IS already multi billion business available to attack.... as usually always too late.    

My hope is - and thanks to TPTB - that here is platform to elaborate on this issues in public, cause that's the risk managament we all can afford.

Why multi-billion and not multi-million?  These chains are already valued in the multi-millions.  Also, some of these attacks are free or nearly free, so why not just go ahead and do it (unless of course it can't be done, which I suspect). 

Again, until someone demonstrates that these attacks are possible and can cause significant damage, then POS is deemed sufficiently secure. 
8  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Altcoin Discussion / Re: DECENTRALIZED crypto currency (including Bitcoin) is a delusion (any solutions?) on: February 26, 2016, 02:08:33 PM
I'm with spartacusrex.  The ultimate test is for someone to pull of one of these (theoretical) attacks and catastrophically and irreparably damage the network in some way, or at least prove that one of the attacks can be used to consistently and successfully attack the network and/or individual users.  Until this test is completed, I'm going to assume that POS and other variations (DPOS) is sufficiently secure. 

Also, it would be in everyone's best interest if POS was broken sooner rather than later while valuations are low.  So please, if you have a guaranteed attack, go ahead and do it and prove POS useless.
9  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Altcoin Discussion / Re: Bitshares Crude Oil and S&P 500 Prediction Market (Binary Option) assets trading on: February 23, 2016, 06:28:50 PM
Both Crude Oil and S&P 500 Prediction Market (Binary Option) assets still trading


S&P 500 testing resistance at the 50 dma after double bottom near 1810.




Oil in a similar situation testing its 50 dma trying to break up its seemingly relentless downtrend.


10  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Altcoin Discussion / Re: Bitshares Crude Oil and S&P 500 Prediction Market (Binary Option) assets trading on: February 08, 2016, 02:07:34 PM
Futures down sharply this morning.  Both S&P 500 and oil testing lower support.






Quote
It is not just DB: as we have been warning for the past month, and especially last Friday, the blow out across the entire European bank sector is starting to resemble Lehman levels
Futures, Global Stocks Tumble As Europe Bank, Periphery Carnage Unfolds



The super bowl prediction market asset was successfully settled.  Check it out to get an idea of how these assets trade.http://cryptofresh.com/a/SPORTS.SBLAFC
Openledger
11  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Altcoin Discussion / Re: Bitshares Crude Oil and S&P 500 Prediction Market (Binary Option) assets trading on: February 04, 2016, 04:59:48 AM
Lets see if the correlation lasts
Quote
For nearly all of 2016 so far, the narrative has been that if you want to know which way stocks are going, just ask crude.
S&P 500 And Crude Oil Back On Track


We have had our first few trades now in WTICRUDECheck it out
12  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Altcoin Discussion / Re: Bitshares Crude Oil and S&P 500 Prediction Market (Binary Option) assets trading on: February 02, 2016, 06:28:25 AM
I do not think this is safe to use until settlement becomes decentralized. Augur and Truthcoin are developing far better systems.
Edit.  SPFIVE and WTICRUDE are also now updated to committee fed assets.

Nice.  Now sufficiently decentralized.
13  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Altcoin Discussion / Re: Bitshares Crude Oil and S&P 500 Prediction Market (Binary Option) assets trading on: February 02, 2016, 06:09:28 AM
How to gain synthetic leverage with bitshares binary options.

If the S&P 500 is trading at or near 1875, then the SPFIVE binary option should trade around 0.5 bts/SPFIVE as it would be considered Ďat the moneyí.  Of course the actual price is dependent on liquidity and market participants.  Suppose you take out a short position at 0.5 bts/SPFIVE and suppose the S&P 500 loses half its value to trade at 937.5 by October.  At that point, SPFIVE market participants would likely determine that the chances are very low that the S&P 500 would get back to 1875 and they would subsequently price the option very low.  Suppose you could then buy your SPFIVE back at 0.1 bts (or lower) to cover the short position you took at 0.5 bts/SPFIVE.  That gives you a gain of 80% using the binary option trade vs a 50% gain with a standard, non-leveraged short.  Holding the option until expiration will give you a 100% gain.  However, if the S&P 500 finishes above 1875 at the end of the year, then you lose 100% if you are still short any SPFIVE, but this risk profile is similar to any other kind of leveraged financial product.  The point is binary options are inherently more volatile than the underlying asset, giving traders synthetic leverage, especially as the contract gets closer to the expiration date.

Greeks are often used to gauge the theoretical values of options as derived from performance of the underlying asset and time constraints.  I donít fully understand them and donít use them personally as I donít see the need but they are useful to many traders. 
14  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Altcoin Discussion / Re: Bitshares Crude Oil and S&P 500 Prediction Market (Binary Option) assets trading on: January 29, 2016, 11:27:16 PM
Ok, I am trying to figure this out, so who will provide the feed on december 2016?... what happens if the person doesnt enter the result or enters a wrong feed?

Right now settlement is dependent upon the creator of the asset, so in that respect settlement is centralized.  Eventually, price feeds similar to smartcoin price feeds will allow for a completely decentralized solution.

Quote
The price feed is the median of many sources that are updated at least once per hour.
https://bitshares.org/technology/price-stable-cryptocurrencies/


If the asset is not settled correctly, then money will not be distributed correctly.  The market resolves to a condition of true or false, so it is pretty hard to get wrong, unless the creator is malicious. 
15  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Altcoin Discussion / Re: Bitshares WTI Crude Oil and S&P 500 Prediction market assets now trading on: January 29, 2016, 04:49:31 PM
Some Technical Analysis:

Crude has come back within the long-term range from 10 to 40.  Will it stay there is the question, especially with all the debasement of fiat currencies.




S&P 500 long-term uptrend still intact




Death Cross with bullish divergence and weekly support.  Will we see some range-bound consolidation here?  Iffy
16  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Altcoin Discussion / Re: Bitshares WTI Crude Oil and S&P 500 Prediction market assets now trading on: January 29, 2016, 12:42:35 AM
http://www.cnbc.com/2016/01/27/the-sp-500-can-buy-61-barrels-of-oil.html
17  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Altcoin Discussion / Bitshares Crude Oil and S&P 500 Prediction Market (Binary Option) assets trading on: January 29, 2016, 12:37:23 AM
The following Prediction Market assets are available for trading on the bitshares blockchain.

SPFIVE - If the S&P 500 is at or above $1875.00 on December 30th 2016 then this asset will be worth 1BTS. If the S&P 500 is below $1875.00 then this asset will be worth 0BTS.

WTICRUDE - If the price of WTI Crude oil is greater or equal to $40.00 on December 30th at 4PM eastern time. (UTC-5) then this asset will be worth 1BTS. If the price is below $40.00 this asset will be worth 0BTS. If you believe that the price will be above $40.00 buy and hold. If you beleive the price will be below $40.00 borrow and sell.

Click here for more information on how this Prediction Market works.

To trade:
1.    create an account on the OpenLedger platform
2.   Fund the account with bitshares Ė other assets are less liquid at the moment but should eventually be available for trading.  So for now, you will probably have to use the native currency, bts
3.   Navigate to your market of choice:



4.   Place your bets

Disclaimer:  I am in no way responsible for any problems or financial loss that may occur when using this (still experimental) system.
18  Economy / Speculation / Re: Analysis ended on: January 13, 2016, 11:00:15 PM
S&p closed below 1900 today - this could get ugly but short term oversold.  Watching 50 day on bitcoin.
19  Economy / Speculation / Re: Analysis ended on: January 12, 2016, 10:14:32 PM
support here at 1900

You are talking about BTC or the SP500?

Pretty sure he is taking about the S&P
20  Economy / Speculation / Re: Is this what they call 'Painting the Tape'? on: January 08, 2016, 05:18:16 AM
Quote from: MatTheCat link=topic=1317888.msg13479218#msg13479218
If this was an organic market, then we probably would have broken down from $430 towards $400, as oppposed to up towards $450, as this is what the market structure was telling us.  Bitcoin may go on and take out the highs, but studies show that there is around a 70% probability of the market correcting from here.

I see you are back to trolling around here again mat.  If the market doesn't go your way then it is manipulated.  Bear moves fail in bull markets and vice versa.  That's just how it works.  You will have to cite your 70% figure if you can because this is the most bullish I have seen this market in a while. 
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