Congrats Alan, good to see Baltimore in the news  |
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Shipping to you next week, or in-hand shipping from you next week? |
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GREAT, btcguild is on the defense against DDOS AND CURRENTLY MY MINERS ARE DOWN......75 miles away and no remote access on my end....i hate the unexpected sometimes....and i hate being ill prepared even worse....my own doing dam
It's not like there isn't a constant warning against the pitfalls of a centralized pool. |
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I'm not exactly sure what you're saying here, you have a blade that is working but not receiving power? How is that possible? Are you saying that it is powered but not hashing? Do you see this in the web interface: Chip: OOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO ?
If it has a bunch of x there, instead of O, typically the issue is that your power supply is not good enough or the way that you've wired is not providing sufficient voltage to power all the chips.
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@ amer,DO NOT buy from BFL,they WILL be late again & miss thier power targets AGAIN!!!!!!!!!!!!! I promise you they have NOT learned ANYTHING!!!!!!!!!  I actually did look at BFL in January and got my Jala, mined and resold it and made above ROI. However, I am not ignoring the collective horror stories so I am skeptical now. As for my question, I was just trying to translate "I made my money bishes, cya" into a more constructive discussion. Each 60gh unit makes $871 worth of BTC per month at current price and difficulty. I will ROI in about a month. I can't complain.
I cashed out a ton of BTC and quit my job in April. Now I get to spend my time with my wife and daughter.
Thank you Bitcoin, and thank you Butterfly Labs.
Your math is wrong Today difficulty = 148819200 Today price = 146$USD That's 0,2BTC/day. That's 369$USD per month, but it's not even that much 'cause diff will rise in 7 days. 0.2 BTC / day x 30 day/month = 6 BTC per month x 146 USD per BTC = 876 USD per month... |
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156528-96c44d0f6913f123651fd7c90d0dff3f
BTC: 19ryMgAK2qrX2fV5NTpse3HC1DwVmiAnod
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I expect my Monarchs to arrive sometime next year.
I expect my Monarchs will ROI in less than a year after I get them.
I base that on Moore's law, Murphy's law, and past experiences with BFL.
This is a conservative/pessimistic estimate.
Also, my 25% off voucher should be taken into account.
Not everyone has that option available.
The bottom line is Bitcoin mining has always been profitable for me, and mining with BFL hardware has always been especially profitable. I have no reason to expect that to change.
Okay, in other words, you bought 600GH/s for $3510 (about $5.85 per GH) and are expecting delivery sometime in early 2014 and difficulty to stop rising so that you get an ROI. I assume that BFL is not your sole investment? Are you being "more risky" because you already are way in the black due to your previous efforts? Would you recommend that someone starting out go with BFL based on your experiences? |
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Your math is different then mine. Here's my math (screenshot below), which is crazy optimistic in every way, except for the non-overclocked, exactly as-specced hashrate. How does yours differ? I am even by December
That's roughly consistent with my screenshot above. And it barely grows past that. If I actually take delivery, I estimate I might get it in late Oct / early Nov. I'm postulating that since it looks like I won't even break even, that I should request a refund--and I'm here looking for second opinions.  Do you realize that by April you have the network at 120PH, May 240PH, June 480PH, July 960PH? This growth is unsustainable. The biggest gun out there at the moment is 2TH. It'd take 60k of them in April or 2000 a day. 120K of them in May or 4000 a day. 240K of them in June or 8000 a day. See where this is going? Here's another way of looking at the potential for continued long-term exponential growth (but I think it uses the same line of thinking). In the days of GPU, it took us 300-400 watts per GH/s. The network was at around 23TH/s total at the beginning of the year. So, there were 7-9 GW of energy dedicated to mining and "normal" network growth. The first generation of devices now can convert 6-10W per GH/s. It took us about 10 months to get to this point, 1300TH/s as people convert their devices over, cash out, etc. So, with 30-70x more efficiency, we should expect 30-70x more hashrate, let's call it 1610TH/s. We're nearing the end of round 1, but not there yet and it took 10 months to get us here. The second generation (bitfury/knc) are running at 1.0-1.6W per GH/s. That would move the needle if EVERYONE converted over to 3.75 to 10x more efficient. That would only bring it to 16PH/s for network total in however it takes for people to convert to more efficient units. There are devices out there that are promising 0.6W per GH/s for release in 1Q 2014, and will again be subject to delivery issues, but if everyone moves to the new efficiency, we're talking another 2.6x jump at the worst, so 41.6PH/s. In other words, there is no way that the network will reach 120PH in April, let alone 2014, without some big surprise event like - cost of power going down by 1/3 globally (not happening), a viral growth of participation in bitcoin (barrier to entry is still pretty high right now) or the announcement of a 0.2W per GH/s chip (which is also unlikely because the 0.6W per GH chips are a 28nm process and Moore's law would dictate that we're not tripling our efficiency in 5 months) |
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So you have a 5ghs of power now, your making about $12 a day.
How are you going to make anyone believe you are a legit company when you can't even do math? 5GH/s is definitely not $12/day. |
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Wait a minute, he's betting 10:1 AGAINST shipping Oct. 1? Sounds like even BFL doubts BFL.
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1 BTC for a working 5970, shipped
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I would feel a lot better knowing about the track record of the players involved in building this company. Obviously a price point of sub $2/GH/s is better than anything that's been promised so far. The question isn't about specs, it's about likelihood of reaching market - so the reputation of who is involved matters more than the promise.
Would you take a $2 per GH/s chip from AMD or a $0.50 per GH/s from we-aren't-allowed-to-tell-you-yet? Considering the fact that there are more failed ASIC suppliers than successful ones..
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Should be moved to another forum..
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I think perhaps you do need to figure out a way to quantify the real world for inclusion in your model.
Your forecast seems to be like trying to describe the weather of Florida by taking wind and precipitation readings during a hurricane. There is value in doing this, because it does describe the hurricane, but when the hurricane ends and you start forecasting that "wind is below expectations", it doesn't mean your forecast is incorrect, it just means you are not accounting for if we are in or out of hurricane season.
We know that Moore's law predicts transistor count in a CPU and up until this year, bitcoin was not profitable enough for semiconductor manufacturers to make ASICs. Now it is profitable, so we're playing catch up, but eventually we will converge on Moore's law. If there was some way to approximate chip counts and feed it into your forecast, I think that would be very valuable. Then, you could forecast what the impact of making x chips available on the market is.
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Awesome, the address is a UPS Store. I don't think this exactly qualifies as "Custom Hardware" anyway.
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How will you do payouts now that BTCT is closing?
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