|
I've read one of Mauldins books and used to sub to his email newsletter. But like most, he's misunderstanding Bitcoin. And Worth Wray was doing so well.
He, and so many others, are going to be living examples of the greatest wealth transfer in human history.
|
|
|
|
Also with each effort, new efficiencies are found. Many of the Saudi fields are <$5 so it can go a lot lower if economies slow.
Another unintended consequence is that the falling energy prices may slow (and mask) some inflationary effects allowing this to creep up on the wizards behind the curtains of the Central Banks.
Five dollars - not any more - they need money to spread around. 20 K princes with families, every public service free, and no taxes. It has become a welfare state. They need cash flow. They can get the oil out of the existing sites pretty cheaply, but there is no reason not to sell all they can with the new supplies available from technical advances. They can be profitable when others can't. You are right that they have lots of expenses though, lots of subsidies. So they will pump away. Here is some other details on some of the no-longer-profitable US sites (some well over US$130): http://www.bloomberg.com/infographics/2014-11-19/shale-profits-at-risk.html Lowest cost of production is in Saudi Arabia due to it being so close to the surface. The operating cost (stripping out capital expenditure) of extracting a barrel in Saudi Arabia has been estimated to be around $1-$2, and the total cost (including capital expenditure) $4-$6 a barrel. Even with such low costs, for the oil Saudi Arabia exports to the USA, the USA makes more on taxes levied on US citizens from that oil than Saudi Arabia makes in selling it to the USA. Back in 2005, I swallowed Matt Simmons Twilight in the Desert, hook, line, and sinker. What a mistake. About the same time i started buying gold and silver. |
|
|
|
Brent spot new low at about 68.40. Earthquake.
ya think? oil? who the hell needs oil?:  |
|
|
|
Have you forgotten the year in Bitcoin? I can provide a really smug meme if you're interested
not at all. but you have to realize that things never go up in a straight line. markets cycle and we are at the bottom of a bear cycle for Bitcoin. i personally think this lost Swiss gold initiative was pm's last chance to prove anything. it's failed. the only Sound Money left in the world is Bitcoin. |
|
|
|
Silver down  Should we be buying these dumps? yes. buy Bitcoin as fast as you can. I already doubled down like a fiend. But about phyzz... if you want to buy, buy ZSL and DZZ.  There's only so far gold can dump. I don't know how far that is, but we must be getting warm by now yes, gold bugs are doing a dump right now; into their pants. that's the warm, sticky feeling they're getting. |
|
|
|
Silver down Should we be buying these dumps? yes. buy Bitcoin as fast as you can. I already doubled down like a fiend. But about phyzz... if you want to buy, buy ZSL and DZZ. |
|
|
|
Silver down Should we be buying these dumps? yes. buy Bitcoin as fast as you can. |
|
|
|
waaaaaaaaa i weep. my precious ZSL and DZZ:   |
|
|
|
now this is ugly:  |
|
|
|
remember the VIX chart i posted on Friday? it looks like we're due for a new bit of volatility in equity markets. i also would suggest that a rising USD, which is continuing tonite, is BAD for stocks in the long run. money is debt and debt is money. since most stock bulls are fueled by debt, a rising USD severely limits returns in stocks. a lot of factors are coming into convergence right about now which could propel Bitcoin upwards:  |
|
|
|
nice gap down, baby. Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP:  |
|
|
|
I realise the most gold mined is done by giant corporations and feeds into the largest forms of money. Central banks then take it, store and its never used again (directly). Lots of irony.
I wouldnt argue that wealth must be given free or found randomly but fair distribution is a good plus to a working system. Some possibility of getting some to masses is a big plus
again, perspectives are different. CB's hold huge stores of gold in vaults. masses can't get at any of that. there's still 8M BTC's to be made. get some while you can. |
|
|
|
and with smartphone penetration increasing quickly to places like Africa, soon that will change too. i'm the first one i know to have identified M Pesa as a good example of how Bitcoin could quickly make an impact in places like Kenya and we are now seeing that play out. and it's spreading. and none of this discussion assumes the ease with which Bitcoin can be used to transact btwn ppl worldwide. the network effect has caused Bitcoin to gain much greater acceptance of Bitcoin as a payment network as evidenced by all the thousands of merchants accepting it worldwide today.
the growth and trajetory seems pretty clear. i think it was a huge warning sign that Bitcoin had the audacity to go up and touch gold parity in fiat terms just last year.
I made posts similar to this much earlier in the year. First came the internet to the Western world, next comes smartphones everywhere. That future will be here in the next three years! Android handsets are already dirt cheap. All bitcoin has to do is literally stay functional and it will arise dominant. It just need a spark. the failure of gold to perform its stated function can be no more clear. it's been failing to enforce Sound Money for over 40 years. today's Swiss vote shows just how far we've gone over the edge into the hands of a Keynesian reliance. there's a reason Bitcoin has formed what i think is a bull flag along with a diminution in the McClellan Oscillator, a quieting period so to speak. we be fixing for a big move. we need a follow up chart from you on the Bitcoin rich list balances. |
|
|
|
|
we're fixing for a big move in the next 24 hours.
i say UP.
|
|
|
|
no way anyone in the developed world can randomly pick up a piece of gold. Im thinking about USA and it has vast unoccupied sections, like deserts and so on. I realise thats not really habitable in some cases and thats why its empty but in theory, theres gold there to be found. Im thinking even in the 1st world its possible to some extent Im not slamming table on these points, just throwing it out there for discussion and maybe its the case thats its important to success or not. I do believe capitalism is about people and the more the better, because all of us can achieve things of greater benefit with the right backing in theory Also finding gold in developed world, watch this tv series: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bering_Sea_Gold It is possible to mine gold and just pick it up off the ground right in the USA. Not easy exactly but its there.. I hope you are right about M pesa etc, would be good to see what's interesting about your theory is that it's inflationary in thinking. in essence, what you're saying is that the money supply needs to grow to match the growth in population. and that the new money added should be "free" as in being able to be picked up off the ground. well, that's where we disagree. early on in Bitcoin, everyone could just turn on their CPU and collect "free" money. maybe everyone got used to this and are now arguing how unfair it is to have to go out and actually have to "pay" to get Bitcoin, either in the form of ASICs or on the free market. i don't agree with this. there's nothing wrong with having to "buy in". and with Bitcoin, we "need" that buy in to develop the mining infrastructure so critical to security. my other problem with this viewpoint is that it is inherently "unpredictable" in nature in terms of final supply. in this system, you have to "project" your calculations into the future as to just how much additional money supply will come online. to me, that doesn't make for a particularly efficient monetary system. i suppose you could argue about how much BTC will be lost over time for the reverse argument. but that could apply to gold too, altho maybe less likely since it is afterall a hunk of metal. but then again, this entire discussion is to ignore the seamless tx abilities of being able to send $millions overseas at the click of a button. |
|
|
|
Gold is an element created in super novas not on this planet so to some extent its total amount is limited but yea price could crash from big supply but I think its fairly regular and been proven for a while.
More then asteroids we have vast amounts of gold on this planet. They are locked into the earth core as molten lava though, we arent going to get it easily seems like but maybe one day. Some kind of continual supply is inevitable, it seems to be in line with global population increase though
My point about finding gold is that this is a valued asset usable by anyone. Even the 'savages' can find a shiny rock and access this form of currency. Why does this matter to you and me stting here in comfort, its that we all start off in the world as nobody with nothing not even able to talk. We must pick up the tools and make our way in the world and gradually gain the benefit of knowledge and wealth created by our ancestors. It seems to me this is a vital part overlooked that gold is so incredibly accessible by a person with absolutely nothing in the world, they can just find it.
Bitcoin lacks this, its elitest perhaps. Increasingly its market involvement is being constricted to just those who can design ASIC circuit boards or those who can pay them for their knowledge. It seems this could be a flaw that if you really want to build something great, you must allow the great unwashed masses of the world to be able pick up their tools and learn how to be involved in your system of worth and we cant exclude them. Increasingly we only want people to be btc consumers and my arguement with capitalism truely applied is that the worth is always with the people not the elite.
Just a point and I might be wrong but its another major difference between gold and bitcoin and I think its an ongoing dynamic as bitcoin becomes more difficult and gold remains random in its distribution to even just a small part this makes it more a peoples currency.
Which is more likely to survive long term and increase in value even
we have a pretty big difference in perspective. there is just no way anyone in the developed world can randomly pick up a piece of gold. that pretty much is true for most in the non-developed world as well. and travel to whatever region that has accessible gold is dangerous, expensive, and impractical for the avg person. Bitcoin, otoh, is easily accessible for anyone in developed nations. maybe this is the elitist function you're referring to. but that's changing fast: http://www.internetlivestats.com/internet-users/and with smartphone penetration increasing quickly to places like Africa, soon that will change too. i'm the first one i know to have identified M Pesa as a good example of how Bitcoin could quickly make an impact in places like Kenya and we are now seeing that play out. and it's spreading. and none of this discussion assumes the ease with which Bitcoin can be used to transact btwn ppl worldwide. the network effect has caused Bitcoin to gain much greater acceptance of Bitcoin as a payment network as evidenced by all the thousands of merchants accepting it worldwide today. the growth and trajetory seems pretty clear. i think it was a huge warning sign that Bitcoin had the audacity to go up and touch gold parity in fiat terms just last year. |
|
|
|
i dont get it. like scotland rejecting their independence. Good news for them because that shiny metal in the long term is not going to be worth much. Good news for us in the short term as it accelerates the inflatability of fiat. yep, i think this should kick off the next Bitcoin rally coming out of the contracting low volatile flag. gold has failed us. |
|
|
|
Yea hehe not sure if your serious but Im talking with respect to the total supply or large amounts. I know bitcoin is easy to buy in theory but I can also buy gold from ebay with buy it now too, I guess not instant delivery but a nearby pawn shop would also deal me from my credit card.
Really Im talking about from the source. The gold picked up off the ground in gold rush was no small amount, it was released freely to many different people. It created mass migration but the actual 'mining' as such was easy.
Even today, say 1% of gold might be easy. Not in one place but all over the planet some amount of gold is just found under a rock undiscovered, this easy gold adds up to quite alot across the planet and its given freely.
This does not apply to bitcoin, you cant get free bitcoin from the source easily. Whats the odds of an average person on the street solving a blockchain, its not within a million percent close to 1% even. Im just wondering if that is a flaw that will stop btc propagating as far as gold has across all cultures
i know we're coming at this from different angles so let me just present the counterview. with all the ATM's, localbitcoins, and Circle and Coinbase, it seems pretty easy to get Bitcoin. who cares about getting it thru the protocol? gold, not so easy. why would i travel to Zimbabwe to pick gold dust out of a stream? yeah, i could buy it from my local dealer. i think accessibility to either is a worthless argument as they both seem pretty easy to get. but, any found gold increases the supply on the market driving down its price. why would you want that? now, we're looking at ocean mining and asteroid mining as well. at least with Bitcoin, the amounts can only go down thus preserving market price. |
|
|
|
This gold mining argument still seems a bit silly and perhaps circular to me. We use gold (a rare and difficult-to-mine substance) for the same reason we need Bitcoin mining: to replace fragile trust. If everyone were trustworthy, we could use shiny pebbles instead of gold coins. No resources would be needed to "mine" pebbles, you just pick them up off the ground. Everyone would be trusted not to pick up pebbles he didn't deserve, and only obtain them through trade or in some other socially approved manner (perhaps as a form of "guaranteed minimum income", every person would be allowed to pick up one pebble per day.
Yea I always wonder what is the point to bitcoin difficulty. Surely its not a self assembled mountain ready for the fresh ascent of miners every day in order to claim a prize. It must make the protocol more secure right, some kind of offshoot benefit would be good to hear. Not just we needed to stop it being easy to solve. I mean if it werent for high diff we could process transactions in 1 minute or less instead maybe though I realise this makes cohesion of the chain harder Let me be clear about this. Bitcoin costs zero to produce. If one had control over the protocol, one could instantly and costlessly create as many bitcoins as one wanted. No environmental waste, no effort needed. The same is not true of gold.
And he's right: if one had control over the protocol, one could instantly and costlessly create as many bitcoins as one wanted… If is for children and shitcoins. A fallacious argument and failed attempt at philosophy. If I could find an asteroid made of gold and catch it with a very big net I could crash the gold market. Not quite true, look up the California gold rush. When western settlers first arrived they found gold 'pebbles' on the floor, literally. It had not been moved since the ice age since the native americans in that area placed little value on accumulating it. Its still the case to a small extent that gold is just found on the surface not hard mined out of the rock. You could argue about smelting or purity but a gold nugget found can just be roughly as it is if people wanted to and in some case nuggets are left as is In comparison there is no easy bitcoin that I know of, perhaps we'd have greater worldwide involvement if some of those billion people could just get lucky and get some bitcoin. I know in theory a block can be solved easily but its not a case of picking it off the ground is it. I dont have a ASIC setup randomly trying, its almost pointless on old devices and worse then the lottery. I reckon its a serious point that the common people need some access to new bitcoin not just those designing asic. In Zimbabwe during their currency collapse people dug gold out of the river banks, hard work but possible with bare hands almost and it saved them from starvation in some cases. Because of this accessibility gold is unlikely to ever be forgotten by the masses it's way easier to get Bitcoin than an ounce of gold. just log into Circle, input CC info and buy instantly. |
|
|
|
Is there a cheaper way? The current protocol uses what is called "Proof of Work" and there is very much something like a common resource problem here, with "overinvestment" in computing power (relative to first-best). But the community is working on alternatives, like Proof-of-Stake. But at present, there appear to be trade-offs. Cheaper protocols are also less secure, at least for now. But I expect a big break through in the not to distant future. From: http://andolfatto.blogspot.ca/2014/11/bitcoiners-surely-we-can-do-buiter-than.html?showComment=1417191644448Ugh. No. David. Bad. yeah, that was lame. what do you expect? he's reading Tim Swanson. |
|
|
|
|
Show Posts
