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3541  Economy / Speculation / Re: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP. on: October 29, 2014, 09:43:29 PM
sure.

remember, the scBTC will start out below the BTC when first introduced.  who knows, it could be close to zero, or may quickly elevate just below the BTC price.  then the speculator launches the attack by pumping BTC thru the peg. at the same time, he embarks on a forum blitz saying how great the SC is and how it will take over.  since these scBTC will be traded on an open exchange, the market will view a rising #scBTC and a rising price on the SC as validation of the innovation, just like you did when questioned.  if i saw that happening, i'd move a large chunk of my BTC into scBTC immediately b/c i also know there's a risk free put in place.  especially if the SC has been functioning bug free for a number of months.  as more and more ppl make the same conclusion, the scBTC will rise even more dragging up the BTC price as arbitration sets in.  but astute investors will see that the scBTC is leading the BTC price or at least rising faster.  this would indicate that the SC may take over.  as that happens, cold wallet hodlers are placed into a bind.  either follow or risk losing value as i think miners will also make the switch to the SC b/c their fees and block rewards paid in scBTC are higher.  once enough of this happens in a mass transition, i think it's logical to believe the Bitcoin will become the MM'd chain and the SC the MC.  this will occur if the added innovation is valid, say like perfect anonymity.

so the incentive is to move first or risk losing value by having the MC become obsoleted.

the problem is even worse when you have an innovation that is controversial; like faster confirmation times.  a speculator will pump the price until others follow, and then dump, whipsawing everybody.

 Huh

that is not an incentive to create a speculative attack. basically you just reiterated your mass exodus scenario but you didn't prove why someone would want to precipitate this exodus and how it would benefit them (other than the obvious "don't be left holding the bag")

the speculator would be converting to scBTC when the price was low.  as he continues to pump across the peg, the scBTC price will rise.  as the SC attracts more conversion of BTC to scBTC, the price will rise even more.  as miners and nodes switch to the SC, price should rise even more. at some point the price of BTC will drop below that of scBTC b/c the MC will become the MM'd one and therefore less secure.  the last ones out of the MC may get blocked by 51% attacks or their SPV proof fees might rise to very high levels.

in the scenario where the innovation is invalid and the MC is destined to stay the MC, he could just create a pump and dump of scBTC.
3542  Economy / Speculation / Re: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP. on: October 29, 2014, 09:38:21 PM
@cypherdoc

There is possible to build endless variation of SC's.

Let's talk about small group of them
 - Symmetric two-way peg
 - with conversion rate 1:1

a) We can verify they are Symmetric two-way peg b/c anybody can send anytime BTC to scBTC and back with conversion rate 1:1.
b) if (a) is not possible this this SC is not "Symmetric two-way peg with conversion rate 1:1"





i'm perfectly aware of that.

my baseline case includes those assumptions mainly b/c i think that will be the most common variety of SC created.

but that doesn't invalidate what i've outlined to be an expected speculative attack.
3543  Bitcoin / Development & Technical Discussion / Re: Pegged Sidechains [PDF Whitepaper] on: October 29, 2014, 09:19:09 PM
What are the chances that a side chain becomes the dominant chain?  To answer this, we need to determine at what point miners will likely point more processing power at the side chain than at the main chain.  At this point, the side chain will be more highly secured by processing power than the main chain and the side chain can be considered dominant over the main chain.  So at what point will the reward for mining the side chain be higher than the reward for mining the main chain?

Currently, the average tx fee per transaction is roughly 0.0002 and the average tx fee reward per block is roughly 0.1 btc (I can show how I calculated this and/or show sources if needed).  The current block reward for newly created coins is 25 btc.  The side chain will have to achieve a reward of greater than 25 btc per block to overtake the main chain (I did not include the tx fee reward because this is currently negligible and will likely be negligible if a side chain has many more txs.  Also, this is a conservative estimate).  To achieve a reward of greater than 25 btc per block, the side chain will have to generate 125,000 txs per block (25/0.0002) assuming tx fees on the side chain are equal to tx fees on the main chain (these fees will likely be lower but this is a conservative estimate).  Therefore, the rate at which the side chain overtakes the main chain is 208 txs per second.

This estimate also does not take into account the possibility that the side chain can issue a secondary coin as a block reward, which can further reduce the number of transactions needed to overtake the main chain.  Also, halving of the bitcoin block reward over time will reduce the number of transactions needed to overtake the main chain.  With discussion of side chains being used for everyday transactions and bitcoin being used for long-term storage, I can see this overtaking as a real possibility.

There are a few assumptions about future conditions in this analysis.  However, at current rates and with the only assumption being that side chain tx fee rates = bitcoin tx fee rates, then the side chain will need to achieve a tx rate of roughly 200 txs per second to overtake bitcoin in terms of processing power through miner arbitrage. 

Also,
when side chain tx fee rates  = 50% (0.0001) of bitcoin tx fee rates:  bitcoin overtaken @ 400 txs per second
when side chain tx fee rates  = 10% (0.00002) of bitcoin tx fee rates:  bitcoin overtaken @2000 txs per second (roughly that of visa and mastercard)

When the block reward eventually drops to 0, then the side chain will only have to generate more tx fees than bitcoin to become the dominant chain. 

Please point out the flaw in my logic.


tl;dr
Roughly, the point at which a side chain can overtake bitcoin as the dominant chain at current rates is 200 tx/sec.


the problem i see with your analysis is that it leaves out the relative fiat exchange prices for BTC and scBTC which play a large psychological factor.

3544  Economy / Speculation / Re: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP. on: October 29, 2014, 09:11:30 PM
so the incentive is to move first or risk losing value by having the MC become obsoleted.

I still don't see how you lose value as long as the right to exchange is maintained, and the main chain survives at all. You can always exchange your BTC for scBTC later.

Perhaps you lose the opportunity cost of buying at a premium instead of making an exchange, but that should be fairly small (value of buying on an exchange instead of waiting days for an cross-chain exchange).


if you stay behind your risk goes up b/c now the MC is the MM'd chain, say at only 40% of the SC hashrate.  less security and chance for 51% attacks to block your SPV proof attempting to get out of BTC into scBTC.  plus, the mining fee to construct the proof has to go up b/c they will be paid in BTC which is priced lower in fiat terms.

I'm pretty sure the mining fee would be negligible unless you are like the last one out because you can always do the exchanges in very large quantity. Given that there is no reason for BTC to be priced (significantly) lower so that is a negligible factor.

I fail to see how this is anything but an upgrade. An economic majority of bitcoin (meaning miners, nodes, and users all) could decide right now to change anything they want about BTC and if you don't like it, too bad.




if you accept the scenario as i've outlined it, i think there would be an incentive to 51% attack the Bitcoin MC to block as many BTC from entering the SC as possible to decrease the eventual supply of scBTC and therefore increase its price.  

again, it's more complicated than a simple upgrade b/c an upgrade just involves downloading an updated client.  my scenario requires a wholesale movement of all BTC to scBTC which exposes them to loss by hacking and identity exposure.
3545  Economy / Speculation / Re: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP. on: October 29, 2014, 08:58:30 PM
so the incentive is to move first or risk losing value by having the MC become obsoleted.

I still don't see how you lose value as long as the right to exchange is maintained, and the main chain survives at all. You can always exchange your BTC for scBTC later.

Perhaps you lose the opportunity cost of buying at a premium instead of making an exchange, but that should be fairly small (value of buying on an exchange instead of waiting days for an cross-chain exchange).


if you stay behind your risk goes up b/c now the MC is the MM'd chain, say at only 40% of the SC hashrate.  less security and chance for 51% attacks to block your SPV proof attempting to get out of BTC into scBTC.  plus, the mining fee to construct the proof has to go up b/c they will be paid in BTC which is priced lower in fiat terms.
3546  Economy / Speculation / Re: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP. on: October 29, 2014, 08:50:54 PM
"the core observation is that “Bitcoin” the blockchain is conceptually independent from “bitcoin” the asset: if we had technology
to support the movement of assets between blockchains, new systems could be developed which
users could adopt by simply reusing the existing bitcoin currency"

http://www.blockstream.com/sidechains.pdf

the basic problem is right here.  separating the BTC from its blockchain will allow exploits.
3547  Economy / Speculation / Re: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP. on: October 29, 2014, 08:40:25 PM
i agree.  focus on my scenario.

I guess this is a possible scenario but I find it highly unlikely and a fail to see exactly how the whale profits from such attack? Can you explain further? The way I see it, yes the last out the door may lose but the first in do not gain anything other than securing is stake on the new chain?

I also think the growth of BTC's market cap will eventually mitigate such an attack as what you are suggesting assumes the "attacker" a considerable % stake of the BTC market

I'd like if you could develop your idea more regarding the first part of my comment.

sure.

remember, the scBTC will start out below the BTC when first introduced.  who knows, it could be close to zero, or may quickly elevate just below the BTC price.  then the speculator launches the attack by pumping BTC thru the peg. at the same time, he embarks on a forum blitz saying how great the SC is and how it will take over.  since these scBTC will be traded on an open exchange, the market will view a rising #scBTC and a rising price on the SC as validation of the innovation, just like you did when questioned.  if i saw that happening, i'd move a large chunk of my BTC into scBTC immediately b/c i also know there's a risk free put in place.  especially if the SC has been functioning bug free for a number of months.  as more and more ppl make the same conclusion, the scBTC will rise even more dragging up the BTC price as arbitration sets in.  but astute investors will see that the scBTC is leading the BTC price or at least rising faster.  this would indicate that the SC may take over.  as that happens, cold wallet hodlers are placed into a bind.  either follow or risk losing value as i think miners will also make the switch to the SC b/c their fees and block rewards paid in scBTC are higher.  once enough of this happens in a mass transition, i think it's logical to believe the Bitcoin will become the MM'd chain and the SC the MC.  this will occur if the added innovation is valid, say like perfect anonymity.

so the incentive is to move first or risk losing value by having the MC become obsoleted.

the problem is even worse when you have an innovation that is controversial; like faster confirmation times.  a speculator will pump the price until others follow, and then dump, whipsawing everybody.
3548  Economy / Speculation / Re: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP. on: October 29, 2014, 07:56:07 PM
take a look at the VIX graph i just posted today.

whether the volatility causes the market to go down or it's the market going down that causes volatility, we don't know.  we do know that when volatility is going up, someone is losing money.
3549  Economy / Speculation / Re: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP. on: October 29, 2014, 07:52:46 PM
if BTC holders and miners can be seduced to switch to the SC, full nodes might be expected to as well. 

That is called an upgrade. The same thing happens today if you convince miners, nodes, and users to adopt a new version of the software. It has nothing to do with sidechains, except perhaps providing a more gradual method to migrate.


it's also different from an upgrade b/c in that scenario, ppl don't have to crack open cold wallets. they just download software.

what i'm describing is a market exploitation/transition that will cause huge volatility.  ppl lose money when there's volatility.
3550  Economy / Speculation / Re: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP. on: October 29, 2014, 07:48:39 PM
- I cannot imagine how somebody can pump scBTC when exchanging them against BTC is 1:1 at the protocol level.

One example was specifically described: A nominally 1:1 side chain with a cap on the amount of BTC that can be moved to the side chain. Now imagine that the developer secretly grabs 90% of the cap before pumping the sidechain. The developer has a put that makes this a largely risk free (with my caveat about security risks).

I imagine that once speculators and scammers get to work on coming up with their own variations there will be more such methods developed. Scammers are innovative when it comes to methods of scamming if nothing else.

Would any sensible person put their BTC in such a capped sidechain? I don't see it. I'm also not sure how the developer could "secretly" grab 90% of the cap before pumping the sidechain. If 90% of the cap is held then I don't see any feasible way that you could create such a pump that would incite a BTC exodus. The numbers don't work.

i agree.  focus on my scenario.
3551  Economy / Speculation / Re: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP. on: October 29, 2014, 07:47:54 PM
if BTC holders and miners can be seduced to switch to the SC, full nodes might be expected to as well. 

That is called an upgrade. The same thing happens today if you convince miners, nodes, and users to adopt a new version of the software. It has nothing to do with sidechains, except perhaps providing a more gradual method to migrate.


no, no. read my first post about this above.

initially, scBTC can be expected to trade below BTC, as it is new and MM'd.  as brg444 concluded from my questioning days ago, if observers see a large #scBTC appearing on the SC a price rise will likely follow as it indicates there might be merit to the innovation.  if other speculators start to smell an opportunity of the SC becoming the MC, they will follow in a self feeding cycle.  BTC hodlers then have a problem; either they follow or not.  if not, i say they risk losing value b/c there comes a tipping point where arbitrage won't keep the relative prices close together.  who knows where that point is in the transition; 30, 40, 50%?  but at some point, in the case where we have a truly innovative SC, miners will primarily mine the SC and start MM the MC.  then, the MC becomes less secure and in danger of a 51% attack.  that's where BTC become priced below scBTC.  and that's where you'll get a run/stampede of BTC to scBTC.
3552  Economy / Speculation / Re: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP. on: October 29, 2014, 07:40:56 PM
- I cannot imagine how somebody can pump scBTC when exchanging them against BTC is 1:1 at the protocol level.

One example was specifically described: A nominally 1:1 side chain with a cap on the amount of BTC that can be moved to the side chain. Now imagine that the developer secretly grabs 90% of the cap before pumping the sidechain. The developer has a put that makes this a largely risk free (with my caveat about security risks).

I imagine that once speculators and scammers get to work on coming up with their own variations there will be more such methods developed. Scammers are innovative when it comes to methods of scamming if nothing else.

it's pretty clear that Sidescams are going to blossom.  all they have to do is cause volatility to the Bitcoin ecosystem to have a negative effect. 

but, i have just described to you a SC situation that starts out with good intent and how a whale could exploit that situation with a speculative attack all b/c he has the economic equivalent of a risk free put with the 2 way peg.

everyone knows the consequences of the Greenspan Put, do they not?
3553  Economy / Speculation / Re: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP. on: October 29, 2014, 07:31:32 PM
you touched on something i'm very worried with SC's the other day:  a speculative attack.

assuming a SC failure is a long tail unlikely event as from a bug, the 2 way peg and scBTC is acting like a "risk free put".  therefore a whale could pump large amts of BTC thru the peg driving up the #scBTC and eventually its price with a reasonable confidence that he won't be hurt as he could always reverse back into BTC. the problem is other BTC holders might be forced to follow for fear of the SC taking over as the mainchain and the merge mining % flipping. in other words, MM for Namecoin is about 70% that of Bitcoin currently.  assuming a SC is initially MM'd, say at 60%, if a superior SC can flip this around by making Bitcoin 60% MM'd with the SC becoming the main chain, those left behind in BTC will lose value or may lose everything.  the problem is that BTC holders may not be able to differentiate an unfolding superior SC from that of a Sidescam.

i see a very high likelihood of this attack that at the very least will cause volatility in the entire ecosystem. and that would be bad for the BTC and the scBTC price.

i also don't think this can be arbed away.  it's reasonable to think scBTC would start off lower than BTC from being new and less secured with MM.  if the whale can force this to flip with the price of scBTC rising faster than BTC at the very least this will cause volatility.  some BTC holders and especially the speculators may be convinced the SC has a chance to take over and will follow encouraged by the risk free put.  miners may then switch to the SC too and start MM BTC instead.  yes, arb in the middle of a big picture transition can keep prices relatively equal.  but if a true transition is really happening to the SC becoming dominant, the BTC price should start to drop below that of scBTC as realization sets in that BTC is going to lose and BTC itself becomes the 60% MM'd chain with the SC as the mainchain.

so in essence, last out the door will lose.

Just a note about this scenario.

I don't believe miners switching over to the SC and MM BTC makes the SC the mainchain. Only a full exile of the nodes can do that.

this is the follow on from me beating around the bush the other day, btw.

if BTC holders and miners can be seduced to switch to the SC, full nodes might be expected to as well. 
3554  Economy / Speculation / Re: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP. on: October 29, 2014, 07:28:04 PM
assuming a SC failure is a long tail unlikely event as from a bug, the 2 way peg and scBTC is acting like a "risk free put".

I don't think it is risk free since a failure of the sidechain could prevent unlocking on the BTC side, or conceivably cause the locked BTC to run out.

i understand.  but a chance of a bug in a well designed open sourced SC is probably no more than a bug in Bitcoin itself.  especially if an attacker waits a good amount of time to prove stability of the SC before launching the speculative attack.   given those circumstances, the 2 way peg IS a risk free put.

Quote
Quote
i see a very high likelihood of this attack that at the very least will cause volatility in the entire ecosystem. and that would be bad for the BTC and the scBTC price.

This seems very plausible to me.



a speculator loves to cause volatility and will love the risk free put nature of this situation.  he will take advantage of it at the expense of less sophisticated investors.

- I cannot imagine how somebody can pump scBTC when exchanging them against BTC is 1:1 at the protocol level.

why not?  we're talking about a whale pumping in a "large" #BTC thru the peg for scBTC.  whether he is doing it b/c he truly believes the SC has merit or is doing it as a pump and dump, observers will never know.
Quote
- I cannot imagine how keeping BTC in MixerBTC, HotWalletBTC or ExchangeBTC make in more valuable (if you do not use them for trading, fast-spending or mixing)



take my base case scenario and add in perfect anonymity as the innovation.  if this SC actually works, the paper itself said that BTC holders could make a transition to the SC to take advantage of the innovation.

the question is, do we all want to be making transitions to a new chain everytime an innovation comes along?
3555  Economy / Speculation / Re: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP. on: October 29, 2014, 07:25:03 PM
assuming a SC failure is a long tail unlikely event as from a bug, the 2 way peg and scBTC is acting like a "risk free put".

I don't think it is risk free since a failure of the sidechain could prevent unlocking on the BTC side, or conceivably cause the locked BTC to run out.

Quote
i see a very high likelihood of this attack that at the very least will cause volatility in the entire ecosystem. and that would be bad for the BTC and the scBTC price.

This seems very plausible to me.



remember that my base case for consideration is a simple Bitcoin fork with no sidecoin with one sell-able "innovation" added in.  in this sense, an outright failure is not to be expected.
3556  Economy / Speculation / Re: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP. on: October 29, 2014, 07:14:50 PM
assuming a SC failure is a long tail unlikely event as from a bug, the 2 way peg and scBTC is acting like a "risk free put".

I don't think it is risk free since a failure of the sidechain could prevent unlocking on the BTC side, or conceivably cause the locked BTC to run out.

i understand.  but a chance of a bug in a well designed open sourced SC is probably no more than a bug in Bitcoin itself.  especially if an attacker waits a good amount of time to prove stability of the SC before launching the speculative attack.   given those circumstances, the 2 way peg IS a risk free put.

Quote
Quote
i see a very high likelihood of this attack that at the very least will cause volatility in the entire ecosystem. and that would be bad for the BTC and the scBTC price.

This seems very plausible to me.



a speculator loves to cause volatility and will love the risk free put nature of this situation.  he will take advantage of it at the expense of less sophisticated investors.
3557  Economy / Speculation / Re: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP. on: October 29, 2014, 07:00:09 PM
shucks, my laptop with my charting program went dead.

looks like the gold reversal DOWN is well underway.  from memory, both GDX and GDXJ, have broken below their consolidation points.  that's not good.  in retrospect, they were leading.

also, my prediction of a Dow Theory non-confirmation is looking good and is firmly on the table and in play as a major hint that we may be entering a period of severe volatility and perhaps recession as a bear cycle may be settling in.  we'll see how the next few days behave.
3558  Economy / Speculation / Re: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP. on: October 29, 2014, 06:35:19 PM
you touched on something i'm very worried with SC's the other day:  a speculative attack.

assuming a SC failure is a long tail unlikely event as from a bug, the 2 way peg and scBTC is acting like a "risk free put".  therefore a whale could pump large amts of BTC thru the peg driving up the #scBTC and eventually its price with a reasonable confidence that he won't be hurt as he could always reverse back into BTC. the problem is other BTC holders might be forced to follow for fear of the SC taking over as the mainchain and the merge mining % flipping. in other words, MM for Namecoin is about 70% that of Bitcoin currently.  assuming a SC is initially MM'd, say at 60%, if a superior SC can flip this around by making Bitcoin 60% MM'd with the SC becoming the main chain, those left behind in BTC will lose value or may lose everything.  the problem is that BTC holders may not be able to differentiate an unfolding superior SC from that of a Sidescam.

i see a very high likelihood of this attack that at the very least will cause volatility in the entire ecosystem. and that would be bad for the BTC and the scBTC price.

i also don't think this can be arbed away.  it's reasonable to think scBTC would start off lower than BTC from being new and less secured with MM.  if the whale can force this to flip with the price of scBTC rising faster than BTC at the very least this will cause volatility.  some BTC holders and especially the speculators may be convinced the SC has a chance to take over and will follow encouraged by the risk free put.  miners may then switch to the SC too and start MM BTC instead.  yes, arb in the middle of a big picture transition can keep prices relatively equal.  but if a true transition is really happening to the SC becoming dominant, the BTC price should start to drop below that of scBTC as realization sets in that BTC is going to lose and BTC itself becomes the 60% MM'd chain with the SC as the mainchain.

so in essence, last out the door will lose.
3559  Economy / Speculation / Re: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP. on: October 29, 2014, 05:56:30 PM
Bitcoin Maximalism

I, for one, welcome our new ScamChain overlords.

Yes, to be sure many sidechains will be scams.  And highly regarded and trustworthy 'overlords' lending credibility to the basic idea of sidechains will be very welcome to those intending to use the mechanism for scammery.

It needs to be made very clear to users that just because something leverages the sidechains principles (or claims to) this is no reason to drop due-diligence and common sense.  Use only sidechains which can be thoroughly analyzed and have a theoretical basis in the principle that the sidechains manager can at the very worst lose value...NOT take value.



you touched on something i'm very worried with SC's the other day:  a speculative attack.

assuming a SC failure is a long tail unlikely event as from a bug, the 2 way peg and scBTC is acting like a "risk free put".  therefore a whale could pump large amts of BTC thru the peg driving up the #scBTC and eventually its price with a reasonable confidence that he won't be hurt as he could always reverse back into BTC. the problem is other BTC holders might be forced to follow for fear of the SC taking over as the mainchain and the merge mining % flipping. in other words, MM for Namecoin is about 70% that of Bitcoin currently.  assuming a SC is initially MM'd, say at 60%, if a superior SC can flip this around by making Bitcoin 60% MM'd with the SC becoming the main chain, those left behind in BTC will lose value or may lose everything.  the problem is that BTC holders may not be able to differentiate an unfolding superior SC from that of a Sidescam.

i see a very high likelihood of this attack that at the very least will cause volatility in the entire ecosystem. and that would be bad for the BTC and the scBTC price.
3560  Economy / Speculation / Re: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP. on: October 29, 2014, 05:47:11 PM
trendline well intact:

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