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3541  Economy / Speculation / Re: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP. on: August 27, 2014, 02:16:07 AM
grinding higher
3542  Economy / Speculation / Re: Question For Bitcoin OldTimers on: August 26, 2014, 11:58:44 PM
i would say that the 2016 halving is definitely not priced in yet.

The efficient market theory is a flawed theory indeed Wink

but it is efficient in that speculators are not willing to buy it up this far ahead.  a boatload of things could happen btwn now and then.  like i said, the first indication i got that speculators were starting to front run was the run to 15.5 May 2014.  and that was after a month of me urging my subs to start accumulating.  someone is going to try and front run for sure.  it's just a matter of detecting when a significant # of them start to act in concert driving the price up.  at the time, 6 mo ahead was a perfectly reasonable time to start doing so.

Well market prices of billion dollar companies fluctuating at several percentage points each day at least is another useful hint Wink

Anyway, if you want to front run, just start accumulating today.

indeed, that is one strategy:  buy all dips. especially ones at the end of an 8 mo stagnation.
3543  Economy / Speculation / Re: Question For Bitcoin OldTimers on: August 26, 2014, 11:46:02 PM
i would say that the 2016 halving is definitely not priced in yet.

The efficient market theory is a flawed theory indeed Wink

but it is efficient in that speculators are not willing to buy it up this far ahead.  a boatload of things could happen btwn now and then.  like i said, the first indication i got that speculators were starting to front run was the run to 15.5 May 2014.  and that was after a month of me urging my subs to start accumulating.  someone is going to try and front run for sure.  it's just a matter of detecting when a significant # of them start to act in concert driving the price up.  at the time, 6 mo ahead was a perfectly reasonable time to start doing so.
3544  Economy / Speculation / Re: CNBC special "Bitcoin Uprising" on CNBC Europe right now on: August 26, 2014, 10:32:30 PM
assumptions galore.
3545  Economy / Speculation / Re: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP. on: August 26, 2014, 10:28:28 PM
Student loans the fastest growing debt.
They are getting them younger.
The education can't be taken away, but you also can't pass it on to your heirs.
It is as ephemeral as it is inalienable.
worse than that, college provides students with schooling, not education.

Any education may occur is purely accidental and contrary to the goal of producing well-schooled students.


There's a distressing amount of distrust of "education" in this thread sometimes. I have to say, aside from this community, higher-ed has, in my experience, been full of the most establishment-challenging people I've ever met. Granted, they tended to skew fiscal-liberal (youth and inexperience can do that), but nevertheless displayed honest and critical questioning of the status quo, over a pretty wide variety of thought.

That said, you may be specifically referring to K-12 public education in the US, in which case I'll offer no opinion because I have no personal experience with it.


yeah, but consider where you went.  Wink
3546  Economy / Speculation / Re: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP. on: August 26, 2014, 08:21:55 PM
both stocks and gold/silver dove into the close.

i don't like that.
3547  Economy / Speculation / Re: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP. on: August 26, 2014, 08:00:04 PM
huh, we may have the beginnings of a Dow Theory non-confirmation starting just today.  i'll have to watch this carefully.
3548  Economy / Speculation / Re: Citi report on bitcoin on: August 26, 2014, 07:41:16 PM
we've also arguably completed a natural down cycle as a result of the run up late last year.  

What sort of basis are you using to conclude that this cycle has now completed? This would only be clearly visible in hindsight, so I am curious what metrics you are looking at.

we've broken the downtrend lines.  we've also broken the uptrend lines.  but time is also important, as i am a cycle trader.  this pullback interval has been longer than normal, despite lots of good news, but we are still above last April's low.  so i think it is "time" and the fundamentals have, imo, improved.  plus, other factors.
3549  Economy / Speculation / Re: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP. on: August 26, 2014, 07:33:25 PM
mortgages are still the main component of household debt:



http://www.newyorkfed.org/householdcredit/2013-Q4/HHDC_2013Q4.pdf

Student loans the fastest growing debt.
They are getting them younger.
The education can't be taken away, but you also can't pass it on to your heirs.
It is as ephemeral as it is inalienable.

I see this chart pop up from site to site. It's usually used to "demonstrate" that the US has been deleveraging and all is well.

Add public debt to this (Federal and State/Local) and then for good measure throw on unfunded liabilities. The amount of leverage in the system is continuing to grow exponentially.

http://www.usgovernmentdebt.us/
3550  Economy / Speculation / Re: Citi report on bitcoin on: August 26, 2014, 07:19:52 PM
that theory still bugs the heck outta me.  i understand the gist of it but the increased monetary velocity will in the long run greatly improve the price dynamic as more consumers adopt and as more merchants hold back BTC.  the secondary supplier function should start getting more widespread as well.

we've also arguably completed a natural down cycle as a result of the run up late last year.  there will come a time when the price starts to rise along with increasing merchant adoption and all this talk will disappear.
3551  Economy / Speculation / Re: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP. on: August 26, 2014, 06:36:53 PM

But actually no.  The promising takeaway from that chart is the large unknown %.  But in the end, the real world economics of a double spend makes anyone over 51% irrelevant.  So they'll double spend once and then lose a lot more from the fallout.  There's no point to even worry about it currently. 

omg!!! you've had The Epiphany!  finally!

and it just won't stop!:

3552  Economy / Speculation / Re: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP. on: August 26, 2014, 06:28:35 PM
Unless you know 100% that discus and ghash are in no way related that statement is 100% fluffy BS.

lol!  always worrying aren't you?
3553  Economy / Speculation / Re: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP. on: August 26, 2014, 06:06:13 PM
Discus @ 22% with ghash @ 21%.  Free market discipline at work!

3554  Economy / Speculation / Re: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP. on: August 26, 2014, 05:42:09 PM
Student loans the fastest growing debt.
They are getting them younger.
The education can't be taken away, but you also can't pass it on to your heirs.
It is as ephemeral as it is inalienable.
worse than that, college provides students with schooling, not education.

Any education may occur is purely accidental and contrary to the goal of producing well-schooled students.

not dischargeable in BK either
3555  Economy / Speculation / Re: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP. on: August 26, 2014, 05:40:33 PM
look the hell out gold & silver:

3556  Economy / Speculation / Re: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP. on: August 26, 2014, 05:31:46 PM
got these suckers on the run.  leverage UP!:

3557  Economy / Speculation / Re: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP. on: August 26, 2014, 05:03:05 PM
Looking at the chart above the total consumer debt is about 12 trillion. A thought that comes to mind is the total QE balance comparable in size?

If it's remotely comparable in size then it looks as if the banks got a free card to collect interest on money they created and use that money to inflate asset prices and then have us the taxpayer guarantees the loans with QE.


Add capital gains to the mix, and the inflated prices cycle back money to the treasury.
Its the best racket in the game.  Its almost like cheating, being the bank.



the money used to back stop the financial sector during 2008 could easily have been deployed to pay off every single underwater mortgage in the US.  Geithner, Paulson, Bernanke had a choice and they chose to bail out their bosses on Wall St instead.
3558  Economy / Speculation / Re: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP. on: August 26, 2014, 04:43:09 PM
gold bounces off what was once support and is now resistance:

3559  Economy / Speculation / Re: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP. on: August 26, 2014, 04:29:36 PM
mortgages are still the main component of household debt:



http://www.newyorkfed.org/householdcredit/2013-Q4/HHDC_2013Q4.pdf
3560  Economy / Speculation / Re: Question For Bitcoin OldTimers on: August 26, 2014, 04:24:06 PM
i would say that the 2016 halving is definitely not priced in yet.
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