Certainly I'd want fewer unknowns and more knows before I was very comfortable with huge fraction of my net worth riding fry on Bitcoin.
What variables would you like to know to make you cofortable? I'm chronically worried about people's behavior being influenced by legal and regulatory issues. In spite of the tough talk, it's hard not to notice that when the rubber meets the road most people in the community (and out) capitulate immediately and do what the fuck they are told. I almost certainly would. The propensity is directly proportional to what one has to lose. Also, as I've mentioned a bunch lately, I see the solution on a collision course with the big data companies if it is to survive at all. Thus, I would like to have a much better idea qualitatively about the nature of those running mining gear, transfer nodes, etc. This will allow me to better predict what might happen when and take appropriate actions. What does "idea qualitatively about the nature of those [entities]" even mean? There is a difference between knowing what and who. Knowing what can be done pseudonymously. Knowing who requires guns. Which is it, what or who? Don't ever expect much of his vomit ever to make much sense. |
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Broken link BTW, last two blocks are now: 54 minutes 1 hour 34 minutes not sure why you should suddenly start getting longer confirmation times:  |
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Very concerned about the long-term viability of this experiment.
Don't be concerned. Even if the "unknown" increases and reached 100%, it is extremely healthy, and was the normal state of affairs before mining pools were invented! Unknown miners are unknown to each other and can't collude. Yes, you can have a big secretive miner, like 18xf3MQ, but several exist today anyway. You don't know and can't know that they are unknown to each other only that they are unknown to the person constructing the chart. For all we know "unknown" might be a single miner, or 90% of it might be a single miner. In fact that isn't extraordinarily unlikely given that most truly independent miners use known pools. We can't know. We can only think in probabilities. P(mining pools collude) > P(unknown miners know each other) * P(unknown miners collude) The odds that DF contacts Ghash (they have public email addresses) and they scheme up some unconfirmed tx censorship or double-spends, is highly unlikely as news of the stunt would crush both their business models, but is still more likely than the risk from unknown miners. Assuming these total 50% which is not even the case now, hashpower is well spread out lately. the 2 *olfi's around here seem incapable of noting trend in the mining distribution charts, ie, moving towards decreased centralization as mining becomes commoditized. |
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Yes, I know that you do not see anything wrong with that picture. The top 6 companies have 60% of the hashrate. What could possibly go wrong? As long as there is sand around...
Yes, but you would be saying the same thing if it were 10 with 60% or 20 with 60%. These are pools, miners can re-direct their rigs anytime. They are not going to conspire to destroy BTC, what would be the point. exactly right. if Bitcoin becomes a mainstream currency, mining pools have a chance to become the accountants of the entire system which would mean enormous profits. but if they attack themselves, they get nothing. |
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The real problem is the inevitable centralization of mining. Year after year, the number of active mining pools go up. Today's hashrate distribution: F2Pool 20% + AntPool 12% + GHash.IO 10% = 42% of the network. Unknown miners: 30%. It only would take for a fraction of those "unknown" miners to collude with the three leading pools (assuming they are indeed separate entities) in order to attack the blockchain. Very concerned about the long-term viability of this experiment. Very concerned. oooooooh. i am SO scared:  |
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nice advertising:  |
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The real problem is the inevitable centralization of mining. Year after year, the number of active mining pools go up. Year after year, concern trolls talk about the "inevitable centralization" of mining. And year after year the bitcoin faithful bury their head in the sand, "if we don't worry about it, it is not a problem". I have wondered if several decades from now, governments might not end up securing the blockchain by goverment-funded mining in order to protect the economy, property records etc. from evil 51% attacks by terrorist groups or other nations. I might be dreaming of unicorns and rainbows though.... i keep thinking of that great article by Stefan Thomas way back in the first issue of Bitcoin Magazine May 2012 where he writes a fictitious article about foreign state sponsored blockchain 51% attack with an alert US gvt defense mechanism in place that springs into action. it's a great article. |
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i made a point some time ago that if Bitcoin were to become a global reserve currency, much like gold, due to maintaining the 1MB block size, all Bitcoin 2.0 projects trying to ride the MC would be eliminated due to high tx costs. in that case, the blockchain would only be applicable to Bitcoin as Money: https://twitter.com/bramcohen/status/557287567121346560 |
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also doesn't explain the Peter Todd debate reference from someone.
It seems I've missed this one. Care to share a pointer? Go back over the last few days of posts. |
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Not to me it isn't. All governments are effectively hired managers of people-farming operations as I see it. The bureaucracies they form are effectively the labor hired to work the farm. Management class folks get to move up the chain into a farm ownership role sometimes (watch what happens to Obama when his work is done) while the hired labor are not all that different from the stock they work though they are allowed to take some limited stock for their own use in most implementations. My hope for Bitcoin is that it tears some holes in the fences and allows some of the herd to escape. Of course most of the herd would stand in the pasture and stare at the hole rather than make a break for it. What can you do? it's great in the sense that gvts are the linchpins of Bitcoin resistance, as they have the most to lose and have the power to make life tough for Bitcoin. the more gvts disagree on their policies towards Bitcoin, the better chance it has to survive and thrive. |
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<gold important on the international stage>
<admittedly it seems so> with Bitcoin, you merely have to check the signature, which takes a millisecond.Ask, oh, say everyone who's been robbed of their BTC, how great that is. If I'm remembering correctly there may be a few people in this category. FWIW, this is another pretty decent reason for considering Bitcoin as an important reserve more than a trivial exchange item. As politically incorrect as it may be, there is a decent correlation between being smart and having enough wealth to benefit by solid protection. Smart people are more often (but not always) able to retain exclusive control of their secrets. Fewer hand-to-mouth types trying to figure out how to secure their secret keys equates directly to fewer thefts. Technology is very unlikely to come to the rescue here any time soon. It's simply not in the interest of the powers that be to allow the peons to have secrets of any type. actually, i don't disagree with you. i think Bitcoin works either as a reserve currency or as a payment network simply b/c it's voluntary, mathematically secure, and based on a fixed supply. both of us are probably considered to be in the upper percentiles in terms of wealth but i, for one, do understand the argument that Bitcoin should act as a great "leveler". i don't have a problem with that as it would allow the spread of Bitcoin to far ends of the earth, like Africa and corners of Asia, which would greatly increase its usage and probably benefit mankind overall. i don't have a problem with sharing. i'm hedged either way. but i've come to like the concept of Bitcoin being a "noble" endeavor. |
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Thanks.. It was probably the time you were saying that the dollar would cause a selloff in equities but I said they would rise together and since equities were rising I inferred that you would have been bearish usd.
you have been very right on equities, and yes, i thought the rise in the dollar would spark a selloff. i still think it will eventually. too much USD denominated debt used to prop up those same equities which increases in magnitude as the USD rises. look at all the margin. could take some time though. it will be interesting to see how this current pause in stocks will play out. |
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"Finally, once they arrived in Frankfurt am Main, all the transferred gold bars were thoroughly and exhaustively inspected and verified by the Bundesbank. When all the inspections had been concluded, no irregularities came to light with regard to the authenticity, fineness and weight of the bars."
The official explanation was as follows: "The Bundesbank explained [the low amount of US gold] by saying that the transports from Paris are simpler and therefore were able to start quickly." Additionally, the Bundesbank had the "support" of the BIS "which has organized more gold shifts already for other central banks and has appropriate experience - only after months of preparation and safety could transports start with truck and plane." That would be the same BIS that in 2011 lent out a record 632 tons of gold..."with Bitcoin, you merely have to check the signature, which takes a millisecond.
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so what the hell is this all about and how does this correlate with what somewhat else said the other day about Adam backing out of the SC debate with Peter Todd?  from Adam's twitter stream: https://twitter.com/adam3us/status/556462951507714049Apologies to @btcusa & TNABC attendees: late cancel due to hospital visit of family member. All ok, but couldn't travel under circumstances.
p.s. you do have a big screen @cypher, don't you?  That's too convenient, it sounds like a weak excuse to me. also doesn't explain the Peter Todd debate reference from someone. |
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so what the hell is this all about and how does this correlate with what somewhat else said the other day about Adam backing out of the SC debate with Peter Todd? from Adam's twitter stream: https://twitter.com/adam3us/status/556462951507714049Apologies to @btcusa & TNABC attendees: late cancel due to hospital visit of family member. All ok, but couldn't travel under circumstances.
p.s. you do have a big screen @cypher, don't you? no, i use a laptop. it's all about being detail oriented and an insatiable thirst for obtaining as much knowledge as possible to get a good sense of the Big Picture. unlike tvbcof, and others, who come here to vomit on this thread once in a while after returning from the fields from humping little dogs (he is a little dog afterall). |
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Over the summer, I called for this latest dollar rally as the price of oil was dropping. I've strongly made the case for deflation a long time as well as hinted by rising UST's. After the SNB did its thing the other day I mentioned to watch the dollar. This guy agrees. This is based on the fact that theUS was lucky to geta rally in both during the last crisis. I doubt it happens the same way this time around : http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-01-16/about-strong-dollarIts ez to call a dollar rally after its already confirmed ive been saying it since 2011 2012.. and the currency wars dont help.. all snb did was reassure us that central banks need to change to consensus last summer was clearly the optimal time to go long the dollar:  The writing on the wall was clear years ago.. just looks good in hindsight like it would have for me if it happened last year. There was nothing special about last summer that changed fundamentals other than nudge the dollar up at a faster pace.. best time to accumulate is when noone is looking I seem to recall you kept calling usd tops while I said its just getting started yet now you claimed that youve been calling for this since last summer? yep. here's the original quote of AEP which was around the time i began calling for the USD rally last summer. since that time, i have been consistent about showing, via multiple $DXY charts here in this thread, how the dollar has been progressively breaking thru resistance levels during the rise, the result of which was deflation, which i think many now acknowledge is the predominant macroeconomic theme occurring worldwide. additional evidence i've presented has been the drop in oil and other commodities, as well as the drop in foreign stock mkts worldwide. the deflation call in itself is an itself is a big deal as many mistakenly believe, esp goldbugs, that inflation is the predominant theme, which is why they invest in gold to begin with. i think that is a mistake. further evidence of this dynamic, which i've consistently charted, is the persistent rise of TLT, the gvt black hole shit chart. it is sucking all productive capital into itself, much like Japan has done for decades in their deflationary spiral, all based on the belief that the gvt can tax the hell out of its citizens to pay back debts. this is deflationary. Bitcoin holds the potential to actually improve the financial system via efficiency and sound money globally and perhaps pull us out of this deflationary spiral. this is why i am so bullish on its prospects. here's the quote: |
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