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21  Economy / Collectibles / Re: [WTS] Casascius 2011 S1 100BTC Bar - EU - CoinFIRM - 110 BTC (16 exist) on: May 30, 2017, 01:41:35 AM
Odd how the bits are bold.  Has anyone confirmed with mike that this has been done by him?  Not implying anything i just never seen this on a cas product.

It doesn't match what I remember my 100 bar looking like, and the photo I have doesn't appear bold either. I'd also be highly interested to hear from Mike whether there were early, bolded bits.

Provenance might be important here.

Glad to see a 100 BTC bar finally hitting market...watching with interest!
22  Economy / Speculation / Re: Trade simulator 2.0 [Fully automated paper trade competition] on: May 30, 2017, 01:01:55 AM
Things should get really interesting, with all this volatility!
23  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: May 25, 2017, 02:45:45 AM
I wonder how NLC is doing.

Probably working on adding zeros to the Wiley coyote 280, 380, 480 GIF
24  Economy / Speculation / Re: The Bitcoin Rally Song! on: May 19, 2017, 12:47:35 AM
It won't stop working!!!
https://orymh.bandcamp.com/track/the-bitcoin-rally-song
25  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: May 14, 2017, 03:06:40 PM
Many years ago ever when I learned about Bitcoin and invested in it, I thought I was a late adopter. But I promised to myself never mention it to family, friends and colleagues due to the controversial nature and not wanting to get them involved. I figured that eventually they would hear about it on their own, and decide for themselves if Bitcoin was worthy to buy and use or not.

In all those years I never heard anyone that I'm close to mention it.

Recently though, a family member that is disconnected from news, and fairly uninformed about technology or even current world events just mentioned the word "Bitcoin" the other day for the first time. I was shocked. And then I smiled to myself.

It's happening.  Grin

Same. They never buy until the rallies start. The majority of people need empirical evidence - logic, reason, probabilities, or risk/reward scenarios do not suffice.

The intensity and strength of the bull market to date has me favoring a multi-month+ bull scenario from here.
somethingsomething next few weeks are critical ;-)
26  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: May 11, 2017, 04:30:49 PM
think we'll see a replay of 2013? like, 2013 with the decimal place moved over one? masterluc called for a target of little above $9k i think so that would fit ...  

I like the $9588 target...but $8888 seems like it would be too hard to resist as a spike target.

$8k in 3 months.

I predict the peak will be $8,888, but my timerange is less precise; 2-8 months.


27  Economy / Collectibles / Re: [WTS] Full set of BitBills on: May 11, 2017, 01:46:52 PM
They're significantly rarer than most of the Casascius mintages:

From a previous auction:

Quote
how rare BitBills are:
20BTC: 181 (132 intact)
10BTC: 143 (97 intact)
5BTC: 144 (107 intact)
1BTC: 589 (492 intact)

Note that while 5/6th of the original 1 BTC remain...only 2/3 of the larger denominations remain.

This same cannibalization effect holds true in Casascius. Look at redemption values of 0.1 versus 100 BTC pieces.

The larger pieces become rarer, so long as you can hold it and never become one of the people forced to sell.

They are certainly an investment for a subset of collectors.
Look at casascius interest this month, compared to the last several years.
As prices rise, the candidate buyer set for 'key date' specimens changes. More disposable income becomes available, and hedges and sub-investments gain greater demand with the same supply.

Fun to watch price discovery settle in on this. A bit surprised to see 42 get picked from within the 41-48 range...I don't expect it to last too long!
28  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: May 10, 2017, 09:17:23 PM


This market. Relentless.
29  Economy / Collectibles / Re: [WTS] Some Casascius Coins! on: May 10, 2017, 07:49:23 PM
 Best of luck blaze! I'll second that notion that it's great to see some older pieces coming on the market again. A word of caution – for whatever reason the half bit coin silver pieces just don't seem to be carrying a premium right now.
30  Economy / Collectibles / Re: [WTS] Full set of BitBills on: May 10, 2017, 06:02:12 PM
135% Premium was on a 1 BTC card. That same premium definately would not multiply up to higher denom cards

1.35BTC premium over face for a single card may be more like it. Sets you a low tide mark of 5.4 BTC premium over face across the 4 ie 41.4 BTC

That kind of lines up with the last auction for a full set (which was a link from the price discovery thread)

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=191292.msg1982259#msg1982259
This closed at 41 BTC (Four years ago.)

https://duosear.ch/@bcg/listing/1b1e242a911971d4222272db1eb96dd3c5b75b39
Has a set listed at 54 BTC, and this one has been listed for a while, so hasnt tempted any buyers

So It would seem it needs to be lower than 54 BTC to get a bite. Just my opinion, but seems to be shared by the market.

(Not that I am trying to run these down. I have a 1 BTC bitbill that I would sell at 135% premium !  Cheesy )

Thanks nuts, that helps narrow things in.
Floor - 41 BTC
Ceiling - 54 BTC

Recent premium 35%. For whole-set, that'd be 48 BTC.
I guess given all that, if it were me, I'd take 48 without negotiation. Absent such an offer, maybe start an auction at 41 w/ 0.1 BTC increments?
31  Economy / Collectibles / Re: 2013 Lealana 5, 10, 25 LTC .999 Silver Funded Token Set #57 on: May 10, 2017, 02:35:25 PM
FWIW, I gauged interest on my 10 and 25 LTC about a week ago.
Nobody was willing to offer more than about 25-30% above LTC spot.
The LTC/BTC ratio is currently rallying, so there is a chance that selling now, you will get less than if you peeled the stickers and converted to BTC.

I am waiting if/until the market heats on on the older Lealana coins.
32  Economy / Collectibles / Re: [WTS] Full set of BitBills on: May 10, 2017, 02:32:40 PM
Not a lot of these have traded hands.

Here's a successful auction of a BitBill from January.
In its case, the item fetched a 135% premium over spot value.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1747782.0

Note the mintage information shared on-page.
You can see how much rarer their mintages are than the initial Casascius offerings.


Here was a thread where we had a price discovery discussion. Minerjones, you were involved then too.  At that point, a 50% premium (54 BTC for the 36 BTC spot) seems equally uncomfortable for buyer and seller.

price discovery thread

I have two sets, and have always planned to sell one, and keep the other.
There is something cool about knowing a bunch of MIT guys designed these things in the early days of Bitcoin, and the cards hold some of those oldest coins.

I wish you the best of luck on your auction - watching with interest!
33  Economy / Collectibles / Re: [Interest Check] Lealana 10 LTC and 25 LTC coins on: May 07, 2017, 06:52:09 PM
The offer above holds so long at the LTC/BTC ratio remains below 0.02.
It is currently at 0.01922, up over 50% from when the coins were first posted.
34  Economy / Collectibles / Re: [Interest Check] Lealana 10 LTC and 25 LTC coins on: May 04, 2017, 02:45:14 PM
You're right, single escrow is probably fine for these amounts.

Got a camping trip for a few days here, will check in upon return.
I've received something like 7-8 inquiries, 3 hard offers. I've accepted none.

Amidst this much volatility, I would take accept 1 BTC for a 25 LTC coin, or 1 BTC for the 2x20 LTC.

If anyone wants to jump on this price, I'll work down the list, first interest gets first crack.
If no takers, I'll check in when I return, and we'll probably have a better sense of where price for BTC and LTC is settling in.

I went back and refamiliarized myself with the coins a bit more.
The certificates of authenticity list the Batch # for the coins.
The 25 LTC are batch/series 1.
The 10 LTC are batch/series 2.  (Note: I do hold one of the batch 1 10 LTC sets, but don't really intend on selling it atm)

35  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: May 04, 2017, 12:24:14 AM
Wow- 1 MB transaction with 273 BTC in fees:

https://www.reddit.com/r/btc/comments/69318u/save_the_chain_enclosed_1_mb_transaction_with_273/

I wonder who is behind this??

...1MB + 280 bytes.
36  Economy / Collectibles / Re: [Interest Check] Lealana 10 LTC and 25 LTC coins on: May 03, 2017, 09:12:49 PM
There's been a fair amount of interest, here and via PM.

Both offerings come in their original display case. They include a certificate of authenticity, with their unique public key.

The 25 LTC comes as a single item.
The 10 LTC come as a pair, two of them in one display case.

For the right price, I have up to 5 of the 25 LTC available, and up to 2 of the 2x10 LTC available.
A secure means of transacting is essential for any deal - please advise - is 2 of 3 escrow the best means? Who? Some other means?

Pricing is tricky because the underlying asset is exploding right now. Payment in LTC would be most safe for both parties, or perhaps we have to wait until price discovery ends and we see what the new LTC value is.

Here are the pictures I took. None of the coins have been taken out of the cases they were delivered in. All coins will look more or less the same as these pictured - immaculate.  (Please pardon the apple bismark sprinkle - it was delicious.)


25 LTC in Display:

25 LTC Front:

25 LTC Rear:


2 x 10 LTC in Display:

2 x 10 LTC Front:

2 x 10 LTC Rear:

37  Economy / Collectibles / [Interest Check] Lealana 10 LTC and 25 LTC coins on: May 03, 2017, 05:14:05 PM
Is there interest in the 10 LTC and 25 LTC Lealana coins?
I have a few available, mint untouched from Smoothie, stored away until now.
38  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: May 01, 2017, 04:07:16 PM
Looks like a pretty arbitrary chart, you'd have to reasonably explain the parameters for me to believe it.  When the price goes higher it gets harder to increase, so it can't be as simple as a line.  Most people, even professionals, aren't estimating anywhere over about 10k.

Agreed - the value I find in that chart is in recognizing the multi-year line of support has had price vary from 1x its value to ~50x its value.

...we currently sit close to the 1x value.
39  Economy / Speculation / Re: The Bitcoin Rally Song! on: April 28, 2017, 11:21:36 PM
 I believe it is time once again.
40  Economy / Speculation / Re: Trade simulator 2.0 [Fully automated paper trade competition] on: March 23, 2017, 12:41:21 AM
 Second time I got majorly screwed by a bug which keeps you from being able to execute on market trade. Best guess is it occurs after having a limit order, clearing it... and then you are in a state where you cannot market trade, despite logging in and out.

 If I were guessing, there is a duplicate flag of some sort indicating whether a limit order exists and it fails to get cleared.

 No amount of logging in and out fixes it, you just can't trade. And then some hours pass and you can again.
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