slydexic,

I shot you a PM with a few questions.

You know, when you are the most bullish person in the room...in a room full of Bitcoin enthusiasts...it might be time to be worried 

Thanks for the opinions, all.

Anyone have any analysis/insights to add to either of these recent changes in the gold market:
-Backwardation for the 7th day running.
-Dealer reserves continuing to dwindle.
-Bernanke's speech (with Q&A) today.

I've anticipated one of two scenarios:
-A short squeeze which doesn't leave enough time to acquire at still-low rates.
-The often-discussed paper/physical disconnect, at which point physical becomes unattainable/significantly higher in price.

Really, it's a question of timing.  We're just speculating of course, but - when?
Today?
Another month?
Another year?
Never - you're crazy, gold is going nowhere but down?

I'm curious what other opinions there are around this.

Littleshop,

if you don't get any bites, you're also welcome to post on the Casacius buy/sell thread.
If you clearly state you're buying, and list your price and type, I think you'll probably get a seller - 5 is a pretty good offer.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=214589.0

Happy to help.

Arvicco, feel free to do so.

I am rarely (if ever) the best price on the thread, but it has been helpful over the past few months to centralize buyers and sellers of the 'Casacius' coins.
ffssixtynine just updated the thread today with some new buy prices (better than mine). Nightowlace has a standing inventory of coins for sale.

I try to delete no-longer-relevant posts once in awhile to keep the thread clean.

Awesome!!!

I've sooooo wanted to see a graded set hit Ebay, but didn't want it to be mine.

I wish you and your seller the best of luck!

You're very welcome!
It's not much, but you could also post in this thread, stating the prices you're currently willing to buy:
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=214589.msg2393180#msg2393180

It's a thread I started a few months ago with the goals of picking up a few more coins myself, but more importantly providing a place for 'Casacius' buyers and sellers to be able to find each other.

Thanks for the official counts, I appreciate the data!

The rarity questions you're asking, I think you're driving at the Universal Rarity Scale:
http://3tend.com/article/coin-grading-basics

There won't be any way to know the precise numbers without hindsight. Factors, in my mind, will include:
-The 'curb appeal' of the coin - how does it make you feel when you get that first look?
-Historical significance, the story behind it.
-Rarity (with guaranteed future rarity).

Keeping with my horrible bias, I of course think Casascius coins win in all regards. They were the first minted digital currency, the first Bitcoin. On top of that, we get a misprint - the collector gods have smiled upon us :-)

Observing what the market has looked like over the last year, I have seen:
-Even a few months ago, you could find multiple 1 BTC error coins up for sale at any given time.  Prices generally varied from 3 to 6 bitcoins for the 1 BTC error.
-Prices seemed to hit a cap. Then, rather then seeing them go up or down more, supply dried up.

I suspect that many of the original buyers do not have intentions to resell them, certainly not for a 2x or 3x profit.  In short, at the present moment, I don't feel the market appreciates the true value of Bitcoins.  There is 'nobody' left to sell (because current prices are too low), and no one left to buy.

A final note on rarities. It's good to keep in mind that to compare apples to apples, you need to subdivide the populations you got into grades.
VERY crudely speaking, I would estimate:
1 BTC w/ error: 5098
Lost: 1500
Heavily worn: 1500 (Graded between maybe VF and AU)
Preserved since onset, maybe ~2000
(Now, pretending we fast-forward until they've all been graded, because if I list the current graded counts, they'd seem way too scarce:)
MS65: 1800
MS66: 180
MS67: 18
MS68: 1
MS69: 1

Most collectors will hope for just getting a complete set. But the 'key date' will be the 2011 error coin. Then you'll have the MS-65 collectors, the MS-66 collectors...

Each will have its own price, each linked to the other prices, but independently driven by its own rarity, condition, relative rarity to other coins, etc.

My guess is that, because we're wired to think/react so strangely, the demand for these will start to increase once Bitcoin prices have unquestionably demonstrated they are again on an uptrend.

(If nightowlace is selling, I'd highly recommend him. Great guy, you'll get what you ordered, no surprises.)

PS - There are only 18 Version 1 100 BTC bars, with the remainder being Version 2. It's a damn shame you can't get them graded!

I tend to agree with KarmaShark.  It's a sub-investment of Bitcoin, no hedge involved. If Bitcoin goes to zero, so too does the coin investment. (Caveats for those including gold and silver within the coins.)

But I do think that the premiums will scale with the spot value.

An ounce of gold is worth around $1200 right now.  A St. Gaudens coin, in a high quality state, commands a premium that is many multiples of that spot price.
Take a look at this chart, you'll see high-grade examples selling for $200,000+.

http://www.pcgs.com/prices/PriceGuideDetail.aspx?MS=1&PR=1&SP=1&c=67

Being positioned as the first minted Bitcoin, and the first run at that...it seems pretty sound that these will be considered a must-have for any serious bitcoin collector.

Now if and when the price of Bitcoin scales to the prices we're talking about - it's true, they'll no longer be buyable by the 'common investor'.  I envision them selling, years down the road, at one of the larger collectible coin auctions, or perhaps as a submission to one of the fancy-pants auction houses (Christies, Sothebys).  There will be a market for them, just not the marketplace that people like us usually go shopping.

I'm happy to help. I'm not looking to profit in the short term; just to share my researched view of why I see this as an excellent bitcoin-based investment for the long term.

https://i.imgur.com/nGPlGCJ.jpg[/img]]

https://i.imgur.com/R3IvvKc.jpg[/img]]

To my knowledge, the only recipients of graded ANACS coins to date have been to SgtSpike and myself.
He's got the first-ever graded, and first 2011 error.

I've got:
-first graded 2011 1 BTC error with ANACS attribution (MS-65)
-first graded 2012 1 BTC (MS-65)
-first graded 5 BTC w/ error (MS-65)
-first graded 25 BTC w/ error (MS-65)

I also have a few of the above types in MS-66 grade (a few 1 BTC, exactly 1 of the 5 BTC, none in 25 BTC).

ANACS will not grade the 100 BTC, as they don't fit their classification of 'coin'.

Some things to keep in mind:

How many unredeemed copies exist for each error coin?

1 BTC error       over 1000
5 BTC error   625
25 BTC error   227
100 BTC error   18

(You can track these at http://96.35.127.219/casascius/?type=100&status=active&ver=1  The counts above are approximate, as I've hand-counted the categories.

I've watched as those numbers have diminished. And remember - the error coins were some of the first ones printed. Many were lost, given away as trinkets when Bitcoin prices were in the single digit range.
Of the ones that remain, obviously not all were kept in mint condition. So we can reasonably expect the mint population counts to be lower.

I'm not terribly interested in selling mine. (For the right price I suppose I would, but I have no idea what that would be.)  I have the expectation that bitcoin will, in time, be at least four digits in value. I'd prefer to roll the dice on cashing in until then.

You might want to message SgtSpike to see if he still has any for sale.  Otherwise, nightowlace and johnniewalker are always rotating their casascius inventories, and might be able to help you out.

Good luck! They're quite beautiful to see, cased up.  And I really think that a few years from now, we'll look back and say "How on Earth did we not recognize how incredibly rare, how significant of a first, these coins were?"
And if I'm wrong...well, at least they're worth their spot bitcoin value :-)

Just 5,000 votes to hit #3!

Just a friendly reminder - Dropbox allows you to submit six votes per month, not in total.

I think I remember coblee offering a redeemed bar at one point. Might be worth shooting him a message.

My four year old loves to try to help.
Last night a high-volume sell sounded from Clark Moody's site at bedtime.
I hopped out to check price (I was in a trade). She hopped out of bed and followed me.
She saw the red bars and said "The red means bitcoin is going down and that is what you want for them to go down."

Rather than explain that only held true while I had a bearish sentiment with lower bids...I figured I wouldn't press my luck.

Another year, she'll be doing my trading for me :-P

Whether we like it or not, I think the concept will bring a lot of interest into bitcoin, because it reduces the barrier to entry. And even though they're buying shares of bitcoins, you know how it goes - once you get your first taste of Bitcoin, you can't quit :-)

But none of this will happen for, as said above, 6-18 months minimum.  Until people see it, and it's real, I don't anticipate the news will positively impact price.

Show a Bitcoin ATM, installed and not seized for a period of 7 days, I think the price goes up.
Post the IPO for anything Bitcoin, it gets attention, and the aforementioned benefits, I think the prices goes up.

There's another subtle (and evil) benefit to their concept.

They began with 200,000 shares. As people invest, they get more money. Which will allow them to buy more Bitcoins. Which increases the fundamental value of their stock.

So long as people arbitrage against their stock, the stock will self-sustain continued acquisition, which will continue to fuel an increase in value.

Can someone check my logic on this?  It seems as if, by attaching itself to the value of Bitcoin, then putting that asset on an exchange where billions are already traded, and arbitrage opportunities are seized, that this is an eventuality.

And Vladimir - which kidney do I have to give you to get a heads up on this sort of thing next time? 

I'll second that. Rampion and Frozenlock, your speculation over the past few weeks heavily influenced my positions. I'm glad you were right :-)

We seemed to be on an uptrend for a second there. Fear not! I played the Slump Song http://orymh.bandcamp.com/track/the-bitcoin-slump-song. The decline can continue now  .

I'm gauging interest in the first-ever graded 2012 Series 2 1 BTC Casascius coin.

I hope you can tell the quality in the picture, this coin was beautifully taken care of.  It was immediately placed in storage upon receipt, and is excellent, MS-65 condition.

Confirming the coin is still loaded (and was minted 7-28-2012):
http://96.35.127.219/casascius/?address=1Cc2grcUVdYZdy5GRPmm1ar6zAPegt9Bhh

An image of the coin: (If there is serious interest, I can snap some more pics, get both sides, etc.)



(You'll note the firstbits of the coin are repeated on the ANACS grading.)

For those that aren't avid coin enthusiasts, ANACS is generally considered #3 of all the grading agencies. PCGS and NGC are the top two, but they have stricter rules for what coins they will and will not grade.  A rating of MS-65 tends to command a fair premium over market value.  You won't get this rating from a circulated coin. In time, we'll find out how many of the first-physical-Bitcoins (Casascius) were kept in pristine condition.  SgtSpike has/had three graded coins, all of the 2011 variety. Their conditions were MS-63, MS-65, and MS-67.  (SgtSpike - am I correct in recalling you sold your 2011 1 BTC MS-65 for 15 or 18 BTC?)

My intention has been to hold onto this, but I have no idea what demand might be like.  So let's find out!
I'd be interested in BTC, LTC, but also offers of gold and silver (bullion or collectible U.S. coins).

If we end up doing the transaction, you'll get a copy of the receipt from ANACS, with its date and the ID numbers for the graded coins. (These will help you confirm the "first-ness" for future valuations/reselling/bragging rights).

If you're interested, shoot me an offer, either by PM or here.

Ahhhh.  I'm catching the falling knives, buying increments on the way down.  Which is tough when your premise for the trade expects the eventual upturn to be violent.

Your position is a bit less stressful