Superficially, the argument is: is logarithmic growth sustainable in the long run? In the long run, no it is not, unless you can always create more of the good (i.e. fiat money). So that rules out Bitcoin.  But we've absolutely seen such growth over the span of several years.

The next layer was - well, new platforms, paradigms - they are capable of this logarithmic growth for many, many years (TV, telephone, internet).  Bitcoin, should it succeed, will fall into this category.

Now granted, the answer to this question won't matter for at least a few more years - we still have so much adoption to do...but at some point, the shape of the end of that curve will become very, very important.

Logarithmic growth can't be the long term fit.  Sqrt(x) seems like it would never have the rate-of-increase-is-increasing quality, which we are currently seeing.

Only recently (from BitchicksHusband?) did I see someone mention a sigmoid curve...which seems to be a proper fit, both in terms of the rapid rate of acceleration on the early end, and the eventual, necessary levelling.

Wish I knew for sure. Right now, the answer doesn't change my plan - buckle up and hold on :-)

I've got a few listed in the collectible marketplace. I've not seen any other graded holo errors ( 1 BTC Brass S1 [MS-xx] ) come up in the last month or so, but big price moves do tend to bring them out of the woodwork.

Your thoughts about when to split vs. lump mirror my own, thank you. I'll probably take that approach unless someone else adds an opposing viewpoint with a compelling counterargument.

Having already sold 1 (of the 18 Active 100 BTC holo errors) and established a stake in the ground for market price (340 BTC), I'm not terribly eager to sell this one. 
I speculate that years from now, the following changes will have occurred:
-The spot value of a Bitcoin will be at least one order of magnitude larger than it is today, more likely two.
-While the number of people knowledgable and using Bitcoin will have increased orders of magnitude, the supply of these collectibles will remain fixed.
-As these items price themselves out of the market of the masses, they move into an investment reserved only for high net worth individuals.
-Premiums will remain fixed in terms of BTC and not USD, with the relative size of the BTC premium increasing or decreasing based on relatives changes in demand in a particular piece.

For example, a 1 BTC holo error selling for 5 BTC when Bitcoins were at $5 did not have a $25 premium attached. If they did, today they would be selling for 1.03 BTC.

But amidst this rapid price increase for the spot value of Bitcoin, people are applying the wrong price valuation model, thinking the price remains fixed in Bitcoin.
This error presents an opportunity for an investor...but more significantly, that opportunity comes at the expense of an uninformed seller.

That last part - the uninformed seller, is the reason I'm trying to get ahead of the game.  This community...the ones that hold the coins now...they are the ones I want to reap those significant benefits down the road.

To everyone other than scotjam - he and I have been shooting a few emails back and forth privately about this concept. I've really struggled with presenting my view in a clear manner.  Well, scotjam grasped what I was getting at, parroted it back, and presented a counter-argument.

The thing is, I do not know I am correct.  (If I did, I would not be selling any of my collectibles now.) The percentage I am selling now is a hedge in case I am wrong, while I intend to keep the remainder of my collection for future appreciation.

In the here and now...I did think about an Ebay Buy it Now. I haven't decided yet. As for the premium, it might decrease slightly from here, but I do not plan to offer it for less than the previous selling price. In my mind, 400 was the floor, as I want to retain a substantial enough margin between successive sales so that my buyer could retain the right to flip his/her piece for a profit, while still offering it for less than my next offering.  I'm more interested in a smooth, predictable, appreciating market than in creating excess volatility, burning the unlucky investor that buys a collectible right before a market floods.  Evidence of such health and predictability increase the odds of adoption by those in the HNWI category, which benefits all current collectible holders.

More notable than the individual (or ten) owner(s) that elected to support it, is the fact that Subway's Twitter account elected to highlight it. It's on their radar at the corporate level.

Page 2500.
You know, if Bitcoin keeps up logarithmic growth, at some point it will exceed the page count of this thread.
What named parity would that be?

I could certainly lump things together if that is more standard or convenient.

I was trying to keep things cleaner by letting valuation discussions, offers, and such remain focused on each individual item.  And it's not my normal intent to drop prices on all the pieces at once, so seeing 6 show up at once is not something I expect to happen too often.  

But the biggest reason of all, because a lot of these pieces are the first collectible of their type being offered, I am expecting their price valuation preceding the sale to take a fair amount of time. That holds the most true for this piece, the 100 BTC bar.  I sold one for 340 BTC. That represented a first guess at valuation, both on my part as seller and on the private buyer's part.  I had hoped the listings could be a place for people to argue over the true value. (Though usually they say 'it's worth more' by buying it. But still, the 'it's too high, it should be xxx' could help dial in where we think market prices are for each of the pieces.

Is there a clear-cut protocol on this? I'll happily switch over the way I post future offerings if there is.

I've lowered the asking price on this as well as all my other collectible Casascius offerings - most graded, some not.
Here's a link to my other listings.
Here's a link to the collectible marketplace thread..

I've lowered the asking price on this as well as all my other collectible Casascius offerings - most graded, some not.
Here's a link to my other listings.
Here's a link to the collectible marketplace thread..

I've lowered the asking price on this as well as all my other collectible Casascius offerings - most graded, some not.
Here's a link to my other listings.
Here's a link to the collectible marketplace thread..

I've lowered the asking price on this as well as all my other collectible Casascius offerings - most graded, some not.
Here's a link to my other listings.
Here's a link to the collectible marketplace thread..

I've lowered the asking price on this as well as all my other collectible Casascius offerings - most graded, some not.
Here's a link to my other listings.
Here's a link to the collectible marketplace thread..

I've lowered the asking price on this as well as all my other collectible Casascius offerings - most graded, some not.
Here's a link to my other listings.
Here's a link to the collectible marketplace thread..

For me...

chodpaba's depth of analysis, and quantity of unique thoughts to exceed everyone else.
cypherdoc does a great job of summarizing in layman's terms and is generally a good barometer of overall market sentiment.
S3052 is the only service I subscribed to (over a year), and found his ability in identifying price targets to be quite accurate, with early identification of trend found lacking.

But my favorite is to just read a few pages of the wall thread, get a conglomerate sense from everyone.
The market is made up of a diverse mix- best to hear from as many of them as possible.

Of course, when I want a rock-solid, can't-go-wrong approach, then I just play the Bitcoin Rally Song or Bitcoin Slump Song and wait :-P

It might help to further clarify, for the poll, whether you are asking in terms of 2013 USD or 2016 USD.

In today's money, there is a hard-cap.
In 2016 money, there is an additional potential multiplier to the market cap.

This rally is in full-on mania/esctatic phase.
It is possible I'm wrong on this (or it wouldn't be a speculative investment) - but I maintain the belief that once Bitcoin re-emerges as a long-term, legitimate currency, whose future is well established, and the collectible Bitcoin market firmly establishes itself as persistent, with a demonstrated premium...that it will draw the attention of high net worth individuals.

Right now, we are seeing premiums, in terms of BTC, decreasing on pieces.
I ain't buying it. I hold the opinion that investments are measured relative to the commodity upon which they are based.
Now, that is not yet the popular opinion.
This is evidenced by seeing more sellers than buyers, to a rather substantial degree, in the collectible marketplace.

I feel this is a mistake! I envision these prices BTC premiums decreasing now...but that they will re-increase, in terms of BTC, once the market is established.

The emotional toll is inversely related to the emotions caused in the market in general - fear and greed.
When BTC prices are on the rise, greed drives the spot BTC market.  When prices go down, fear drives decisions.

Right now, because we are still inventing and defining how the collectible marketplace will behave, there is not a precedent. So we are making it up as we go.

The fear in the collectible marketplace is - "wait a minute, people might not pay the same BTC premium. I better sell and convert to Bitcoins."

The reason I ramped up my efforts on the marketplace was to try to demonstrate, through the buying and selling actions of the marketplace itself, that this behavior is not correct. That for premium collectibles to remain a legitimate investment, the premiums must remain based on BTC. Otherwise, people would be better off buying spot BTC.

I could be dead wrong on all this, and lose a lot of BTC as a result.  But I see this premium-dip as an error that will be corrected in the future.
And I'm trying to get that message out, so that people sitting on gold mines don't cash it out for a tiny gain.

My few attempts to explain this have failed. It might be because I'm dead wrong. But it also might be because I haven't yet found the right way to explain it. It's definitely a tricky concept. I've been thinking on it for over a year, and only in the last month have been able to even try to express it.  (I like trying to equate it to the gold and gold coin market, or the diamond market. Each has premium, high-end collectibles, whose value is tied to the value of their base commodity (gold or diamond), not USD. The premium value tracks along with the base-commodity value. Here's an example using the St. Gauden's pieces. Gold sells for $1300/oz. Check the insane prices on the highest end collectibles. 

So why am I putting this all in my 100 BTC bar thread?

There are two target markets for a piece like this: early investors, and new HNWI looking to speculatively invest in Bitcoin.

I'm seriously considering putting this particular piece up as a fancy-pants auction on Ebay.
If I do that, it is highly likely that a wealthy investor, new to Bitcoins, will be the buyer.
Not one of the community that has been around, and invested in Bitcoins, since the early days.

So this is a heads up.  I've got this piece offered right now, but will probably be pulling it in a day or so, possibly short term, possibly for good.
It's 1 of 18 in existence. If the premium collectible marketplace takes off, it should command a far more substantial premium than 4x in the long run.  If it does not, that premium will be lost.  That's the speculation, plain and simple. Nobody knows the outcome for sure, or the price would be well-established.

Serious buyers, feel free to shoot me a message (or ten).
I've got a few other premium pieces potentially available as well.

If and when I decide to pull it, I'll update the asking price portion accordingly, noting the piece is not currently available.

I hope I'm not thread hijacking here nubbins...

The best answer we can really give right now, vokain, is the extremely broad range of 30 BTC to 80 BTC..

There are Mintages available at that link that show the number of pieces minted, and remaining Active, of various denominations and series.

The behavior of most collectible markets dictate that lower rarity carries higher premiums.  The Bitcoin collectible market is still, relatively speaking, still a baby. Right now, serious imbalances exist to that rule of thumb.  That might be because this market will decide to break from collectible convention...or it might mean there are currently opportunities screaming collectors in the face and oh god i wish i had more bitcoins to snap up more pieces.  Ahem...anyway, it's one of those two...in hindsight we'll get to find out which  

Relevant data we can use to try to narrow in on a range:

Original mintages, and coins still active:

S1    345   216
S2    486   343

So 62.6% of the S1s remain Active, while 70.5% of the S2s remain active.
For total volumes, the # remaining for each is very low.
(Yet you'll notice that the 0.5 Silver S2 has a relative rarity that is far lower, at 45 minted. There - not a thread hijack anymore :-P)

As for historical prices...I know an S1 has sold for 30 in the past - ages ago.
I know that someone   has an S1 up for sale right now. Unfortunately, it is not only graded, but graded with exceptional quality - MS-65.  So it's got an 80 BTC price tag.
Somewhere in between 30 and 80, presumably, is the current willing buy price for a 25 BTC S1 Brass [NG].  It's a situation where I wish the market were larger, because invariably my offering would be undercut, a willing seller would come along, and we'd establish a true price.

Until that occurs, there is a window of opportunity on this coin - a window that swings both ways.  It remains unknown what the premium is.  Potentials buyers and sellers each stand to make or lose more significant numbers of Bitcoins than in buying a more established market, such as a 1 BTC Brass S1 [NG].

One of the frustrations in being a somewhat central source of this information is in dealing with and respecting other's data privacy.

I have information on a 25 BTC Brass S2 [NG] sale, but have been asked to share neither the seller nor its price. (In these cases, I wish I hadn't been informed.)
Keep in mind an S2 has 158% the Active Mintage as an S1.
This means that in the interim, there is partial information. At least a few buyers and sellers have an idea of a going price, but the marketplace as a whole does not.

That runs rather counter to the whole point of the marketplace. The more information that is shared, the better I and others will be able to answer questions such as the one you asked.

Up for sale is a 1 BTC 'Casacius' holo error. (The repeating text in the background of the hologram is misspelled as CASACIUS instead of CASASCIUS.)

Asking Price: 5 BTC 5.5

Related, separate listings:
1 BTC S1 [MS-65]
1 BTC S1 [MS-66]
Other offerings are enumerated here.

The front:


The back:


For historical price comparisons, and possibly other same-offerings at lower prices, check the Bitcoin Collectible Marketplace thread.

I don't intend to insult experienced coin collector's intelligence, but I realize that for many investors, Bitcoins have been their first experience with buying premium coins.
I wanted to make sure the photos captured the natural toning that exists on the "B" (front?) side of the coin.
What impact will this have on today's value, and the future value of the coin? That's a holy war that people far smarter than me argue on both sides of.
Here's a nice article discussing both viewpoints.

What is certain is that some niche of collectors prize toning, especially when over the years, it develops, naturally, into a beautiful specimen. Here's a toned MS-64 Morgan Dollar selling for big bucks.

This is far from a guarantee, so I put toned coins into a more speculative category - having a potentially smaller buyers market, but along with that, the potential for larger, long term gains.  (I'd be thrilled if johnniewalker chimed in on this subject here - he has extensive experience in coins and could probably add a lot of detail I'm not covering here.)

One last thing. Do not buy this coin with the intention of cleaning it! (If you're highly experienced, know the risk you are assuming, and use non-damaging methods, suit yourself.)  A tragic and common mistake new investors make is thinking "Oh, I can make this look nicer, and improve the value of the coin."  The act of polishing, scrubbing, or wiping a coin has a very high chance of creating new scratches on the coin.  At best, that will reduce its grade.  More often, these marks provide a telltale sign of a cleaned coin. From that point on, the coin will not be gradable, and its future value capped.

List of all S1 Active 1 BTC
Link showing coin balance

Feel free to ask questions, or make offers! I promise you won't hurt my feelings :-)
Even better, if you have a similar coin...I invite you to undercut me. I'll happily provide a link to your posting from the marketplace thread.

I warmly invite your purchases, offers, and competitive offerings.  
Each data point lowers the barrier to entry into this collectible marketplace, allowing it to grow.

Happy shopping, and by all means, if there are any questions I've left unanswered, feel free to ask below.

Most especially with this piece, I'm extremely interested to see how the market responds. Will this coin get snapped up before other 1 BTC Brass S1 [NG], or at the end? Do Bitcoiners prize toning, shun it, or remain undecided?  Time to find out :-)

-Chainsaw

I've skipped bumping this posting the last few price drops. I'm unlikely to bring the ask down in the near future, so I figured this one was worth a bump.
I've got other offerings, both graded and NG holo errors, listed here.

I've received three PMs looking for discounts on this piece, and a non-binding offer to sell for 9 BTC by around Thanksgiving, if it is not bought out at 10 before then.

I'll be leaving it up with a 10 BTC buyout in the interim, then sending PMs to each offering party in a week or so for a final, best offer.

All are welcome to buy it out for 10 in the interim, or shoot me a PM if you'd like to included in the round of offers at the end.

Up for sale is a 5 BTC 'Casacius' holo error. (The repeating text in the background of the hologram is misspelled as CASACIUS instead of CASASCIUS.)

Asking Price: 8.5 BTC 9 10

A graded 5 BTC S1 [MS-65] is available here.
Other offerings are enumerated here.

There are around 3600 1 BTC S1 with holo error. There are only about 600 remaining 5 BTC S1 with holo error.

The coin has not yet been graded. I hope the pictures capture the quality.  This coin is in beautiful shape, and could grade quite well.

The front:


The back:


For historical price comparisons, and possibly other same-offerings at lower prices, check the Bitcoin Collectible Marketplace thread.

Here's a link specifically to my other offerings.

List of all S1 Active 5 BTC
Link showing coin balance

Feel free to ask questions, or make offers! I promise you won't hurt my feelings :-)

I warmly invite your purchases, offers, and competitive offerings.  
Each data point lowers the barrier to entry into this collectible marketplace, allowing it to grow.

Happy shopping, and by all means, if there are any questions I've left unanswered, feel free to ask below.

-Chainsaw