Frozenlock,

-what's your guess at the bottom for paper silver and gold, and
-if you think it will happen, do you have a guess for when physical stops being available for either/both?

I'm watching daily COMEX reports, and APMEX's inventory as a hopeful early indicator.
It looks like we have at least a bit more downside. How far is the trillion dollar question :-)

This theory would fit the volume and price movement.
It would also accurately reflect my mentality, when I intentionally throw logic out the window and try to observe what I feel/think as a purely emotion-driven investor.

Full disclosure, I've been positioned for downturn for over a week. But today's actions are causing me to move my rebuy targets lower.

What does it take to get someone flagged as a scammer?

Flavius doesn't seem to have crossed the line yet...but all the signs are there.

You're correct there, Matthew. If you look at public withdrawal amounts, they "inexplicably" surged shortly before the bail-in was announced.  It seems to suggest that a few key players were informed ahead of time.

...that's exactly what makes it profitable, and a great example of what will cause the exponential price increase, once the risk/reward balance gets high enough.

An investor makes a bet, then moves the market to make their trade succeed.
This works beautifully until a second, contrarian investor gets the same idea.

...except once someone with that much money gets to this point in the thought process, they're not making that bet.
Quite simply, they're too exposed.  Smart money looks for its hedge.

I think far more likely, anyone making high-dollar contract-for-difference bets will also have bitcoins on a market, in order to move into/out of fiat alongside such positions.

It certainly feels more synthetic than the higher-volume market activity of months ago.

Is it over? We just getting started?

Two hours ago, I was expecting a long and eventful night. Now things have quieted down.

What do you think - calm before the storm...or was that it?

I split funds between Gox and CampBX after the recent shake-up.

So far I've been impressed and pleased with CampBX.  The chicken-and-egg problem with low liquidity remains an issue.

My intention is to transfer more funds as their volume increases.

You think we'll drop below $15?
I bought at $23, and am lined up to buy the rest around $20, $18, and $15.

Already, the price feels ridiculous, and my largest fear is a split in paper and physical price before I've fully loaded up.

Most popular Dropbox requests:

#1: 176884 (watch any folder)
#2: 154061 (sharing permissions)
#3: 119225 (better prices)
#4: 113258 (accept Bitcoin as payment)

This was a great initiative. We're now beyond the one-month mark, and initial voters haven't flocked back to re-vote.  We're close.
 
What if we renamed this thread title:

Voted this month? 5,967 Votes Remain until Bitcoin is #3 Dropbox Request Ever!

Update the count as appropriate, moving to #2, #1. The title at least implies that, with Dropbox, voting is not a one-time thing. 

I've been a dropbox user for awhile, and was not aware of the renewed votes per month.  I think it's significant enough to this effort, it may be worth being the very first thing stated in this thread. "We can vote again? Shoot, I better do that."

We've got the people to make this the #1 request. Hell, we could theoretically do it this month.

Spike - my apologies, I hadn't fully thought through #-of-unique-addresses-per-firstbit.
It was an attempt to segment releases, using your idea, so there was a limited history, and an easy way to know chronology.
Perhaps you could achieve the same effect like so:

Name each release by the name of the single, special firstbit. That coin is always mint #1 of the series.
In this example, you'd take your 100 bidders, and the single, highest bid would get the 1music coin, of the 1music series.

The important thing is the general incentivization structure that lets you pre-collect funds, while protecting both buyer and seller in case you don't get enough funds.

I'd jump on NewLiberty's expertise, as well as anyone else willing to chip in.
There are a lot of unique skills necessary to pull this off, but this is a GREAT opportunity to crowdsource those skills.

I'm really glad this is moving forward with so much promise.  Nail down a kickass design for the coin, and you should be golden.

How about the following. It would incentivize and reward early investors while mitigating your risk.

Choose a single firstbit, let's just say 1music to pick one.

Offer an auction for all 150 first-run coins at 1.4 BTC apiece.
Auction goes 1 week. If all coins have at least the minimum bid, collections will begin. If all are not covered, the entire auction is null and void.
Winning bidders may choose the coins they want from the initial lost of 150 in price-descending order. (Highest payers get first choice.)
Winning bidders will get first crack at subsequent printing runs.

For example, after this first auction has been run, startup costs have been cleared. Let's say 34 bidders claimed the initial 150 coins.

Now you're ready to start 1music, Second Printing.  These are offered at 1.25 BTC apiece. You offer up the 1000 coins to the 34 bidders, immediately sell 430 of them, then offer the final 570 to the market. (On an ongoing basis, the starting price is adjusted up or down based on demand.)

This process can then be repeated for subsequent firstbits.
This way, collectors can define the price, you offset upfront costs, and still can pad a reasonable profit on an ongoing basis.
You create a rotating collectible stock.  (Future custom engravings could be considered in the future, if/once this has legs.)

...how could I have forgotten!

I just messaged orymh and asked if he could create a Bitcoin Slump Song for days like today.

It doesn't exist yet, so the masochist in me couldn't resist bumping this thread instead

Bump.
New month, 6 new votes for all.
We should be able to get this to the #1 most popular slot.

Ideally in the MS-64/65 range.  Escrow is no problem.  Looking to pay in BTC.  Open to other coins as well. If you've got a collection, shoot me a message and we can see if we can work out a trade.

Where's the "I'm already all in, baby" option?

An actual casascius coin has the phrase CASASCIUS encircling the entire coin, in tiny letters, on the hologram. You can only see them with a microscope, or if you have reaaaaaally great eyes and catch it in the light right.  It's quite beautiful, really.

I'm sure it is just as counterfeitable as the rest, but there's at least a chance that the production quality of the counterfeits isn't up to snuff and they skimped on this aspect.  Something to keep in mind, anyway.

I bought coins from nightowlace. They were in great condition, shipped with care, and in a timely manner. A very positive exchange overall, I'd absolutely do business with him again.