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661  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: September 09, 2020, 08:40:46 AM

I admit my first reaction was to check if it's some parody twitter account.

Turns out it's real.

 Grin
662  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: September 04, 2020, 10:54:49 AM
Screenshoting 4 digits for posterity.



Hi there, future historians!
663  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: September 04, 2020, 06:32:03 AM
Landed right on that '2x per year' trendline...

664  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: September 02, 2020, 01:34:31 PM
NASDAQ over 12,000
665  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: September 01, 2020, 06:32:23 PM
666  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: September 01, 2020, 05:40:00 PM
So, are the averages that you had listed in your above chart meant to be for the whole month? taking an average what the price would have been for each of the days of the month?  Or is it calculated in a different way?  I see that the CSV download (the one that I did) had given the BTC price each hour for the past 30 days (something like that or maybe it was 31 days?).. I suppose that you could average all of those prices that are in that hourly chart and then arrive at an approximation of monthly average that is close, but does not quite account for the trade volume variance.

I don't take volume into account at all. I understand how it might seem to be "less accurate" at first glance. But it's fine, really.
Using volume as weight will not change the end result all that much, obviously. It just makes calculations more complex, for very little benefit.

On that bitcoinity site you can switch from hourly to daily. I tested, and it's just a sum of their hourly data divided by 24.
So they are doing the same thing.


P.S.
667  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: September 01, 2020, 04:11:26 PM
4 best months so far:

12/2017   average price=$14835
 1/2018   average price=$12891
 7/2019   average price=$10665
 8/2019   average price=$10612


5 best months so far:

12/2017    average price=$14835
 1/2018    average price=$12891
 8/2020    average price=$11634 <- NEW
 7/2019    average price=$10665
 8/2019    average price=$10612



From where are you getting the monthly traded volume data?  How is it calculated?

I know that you can get daily traded volume BTC price on Bitstamp from:

https://bitcoincharts.com/charts/bitstampUSD#rg60ztgSzm1g10zm2g25zv  (click on "load raw data" at the bottom of the chart, and it will show daily traded volume for the past couple of months (maybe 60 days?)

From time to time I download hourly data from here:
http://data.bitcoinity.org/markets/price_volume/30d/USD/bitstamp?r=hour&t=lb&vu=curr
There is a CSV link at the bottom right corner.

It's average price for that hour, and volume. I don't care much about volume tho. Just playing with hourly price data.
668  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: September 01, 2020, 03:52:44 PM
LET THE 12xxx OBSERVING BEGIN!
669  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: September 01, 2020, 06:32:59 AM
4 best months so far:

12/2017   average price=$14835
 1/2018   average price=$12891
 7/2019   average price=$10665
 8/2019   average price=$10612


5 best months so far:

12/2017    average price=$14835
 1/2018    average price=$12891
 8/2020    average price=$11634 <- NEW
 7/2019    average price=$10665
 8/2019    average price=$10612

670  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: August 31, 2020, 11:42:56 AM

#metoo 2
671  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: August 29, 2020, 08:29:54 AM

672  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: August 27, 2020, 06:51:23 PM
Who knew 11xxx would be so boring!
673  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: August 26, 2020, 07:13:04 PM
Sideways 11xxx seems like a brand new thing.

In the past we only visited that range during up-and-down rollercoaster rides.

Now we have time to observe the scenery...



https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5ecE91ZBusI
674  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: August 25, 2020, 07:16:05 PM
Portnoy went full cryptonian with twitter trolling... "I will save #bitcoin and #Crypto if they ask me nicely."
What a moron.
675  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: August 24, 2020, 05:30:09 PM
I mean, they deceive their own population, not just the the enemy.
676  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: August 24, 2020, 04:26:54 PM
Not just enemy.
677  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: August 24, 2020, 12:43:37 PM
My problem is I have a scientific background and appreciate little details like evidence and logic before jumping to conclusions that serve to reconfirm my world view.

Scientific method is fine for the natural world.

The world of humans is much more complex and messy. Lots of things happen underground, hidden from public scrutiny. Intentionally hidden.

It would be foolish to assume CIA or MI6 or Putin are not cooking some crazy projects right now, just because we have no precise scientific evidence of their shenanigans.

The public knows maybe 25% of important events/decisions, at best.
678  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: August 23, 2020, 03:52:39 PM
[...] Nobody in charge there gives a single solitary fuck about bitcoin.


Not sure about that, would be enormously shortsighted considering the growth potential Bitcoin has. On the other hand, the western world initially didn’t care much about a few hundred corona infections somewhere in China either.
Exponential growth is hard to grasp but we can’t be naive either. Bitcoin is a big threat for those with fiat powers.

They ARE shortsighted.

Already posted here, but worth a repost:
https://www.citadel21.com/why-the-yuppie-elite-dismiss-bitcoin
679  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: August 21, 2020, 06:47:37 PM
'2x per year' lines update (vs 7-day average):



This has been my №1 chart since you've posted it first here.

Why thank you.



We may notice that the lower line corresponds to a 2x price increase per year if we round the price to 50$ at the start of 2013. That is an exponential growth 50x2^t, where t is the number of years since 2014. The remarkable thing is that for 7 years Bitcoin has kept hitting these numbers on the way down after several extra exponential growths related to the halvings. And now Bitcoin is even above the line unlike 2015 and most of 2016. This is a strong sign that the exponential growth will continue at least in the next 2-3 years. We can't be sure if 2021 will have that extra growth, but the longer we stay close to the lower line, the better. Sooner or later Bitcoin will touch and may pass through the upper line for a period.

With that regard, what software/site do you use for that chart?

I'm just coding for myself a little bit here. That's all.

I would like to make my own chart with years up to 2025.  In my opinion the lower line is very close to the real price of bitcoin, since it reflects the increasing demand (new accounts added to exchanges, etc.) vs selling pressure on exchanges.

Yeah, it make sense, but I wouldn't recommend extrapolating too far into the future. A lot of things can change between 2020 and 2025.

For the latter one can judge from the total exchange ballance, which has decreased from 2.8 mil to 2.4 mil in the last 6 months. We can easily find the line equation for each year so that for each day or month the price point is found. Something like y=(x/3)*1600+6400. For example at the end of August (x=8), the price for the bottom line is y~$10 666. We are over 10% above that, so all is good!

It's all good to far, yeah. I just hope we can finally cross that 12800 line, and not just for a few hours. Like can't we just reach 13000 and stay there for a week, at least... in 2020...
680  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: August 21, 2020, 07:03:02 AM
'2x per year' lines update (vs 7-day average):


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