Even in Bitcoin? I have this belief that going all-in in Bitcoin is totally fine but a time will come that I'll have to diversify as well but not too much.
People have to be careful if overly allocate into any one asset, especially any asset that is volatile in relation to the currency in which they may well need to pay bills. I don't really believe that it is very practical in regards to some guys who say they had gone 100% bitcoin or some variation like that, and they might even get paid in bitcoin, so they just convert to fiat to pay bills and things like that, as the bills come in.
Usually, we are at least going to need to find some kind of a minimum balance in regards to how much value that we might keep in fiat and how much in bitcoin, and even if we might have several hundred bitcoin, it may also be valuable to either keep a couple years in cash or at least 3-6 months in cash and then other various forms of places that are able to offset bitcoin's volatility, whether they are related to cash (and maybe liquid) or if they aren't as liquid then that would be a factor to consider as well in regards to how long it might take to cash out of them if necessary.
I understand that guys may also want some assets that might earn them income or even to be able to use their assets for collateral and to get cash in those kinds of ways, and I am surely not opposed to any of those practices, even though there are likely better and worse ways of employing capital in those kinds of ways... which can end up taking us all over the place, and so my own personal preferences continue to be mostly emphasizing discussion on bitcoin and cash ways of balancing investment portfolios, especially since we are in a bitcoin forum, even though I understand some threads (including potentially this one) may well be open to bringing in some discussion of other areas that guys might choose to hold some of their value or that they deem it helpful to have some of their value in some other assets besides bitcoin and cash.
How I wish that I've got some hundred of Bitcoin. But I agree that what you've said is that we should allocate with minimum that we can, at least for those that haven't diversified yet and start to look up into the assets that they are convenient with.
Of course, each of us has to attempt to figure out his ability to accumulate bitcoin within his own means, and while retaining his own balances of finances. Even if I have been suggesting that guys moderate their level of bitcoin accumulation to their own circumstances, I have also continuously asserted that it is also probably good that guys accumulate bitcoin as aggressively as they are able to without overdoing it. I believe that there is no need for brand new investors to diversify their investments, especially if they have identified bitcoin as a place that they would like to focus their investment, and perhaps increase their bitcoin investment until it gets to a level in which diversification into other assets/currencies besides dollars and BTC starts to seem practical and reasonable. I would not proclaim to know at what point diversification is necessary, yet it seems that guys need to figure out those kinds of things, and really diversification does not seem to be a problem for brand new investors, even though frequently we will hear folk proclaiming that new investors need to consider diversification as part of their beginning approach to investing.
I think that one of the most important things with bitcoin is getting started as soon as possible, and then to figure out the various details as you go, and sure one of the important things in regards to investing into bitcoin is making sure that you are investing from your discretionary income, so you have to make sure that you have discretionary income and you should come into bitcoin with a plan to hold whatever bitcoin that you buy for 4-10 years or more. So there could be some need for a beginner to start out fairly conservatively such as $10 to $100 per week, and not to increase his investment into bitcoin until he is getting somewhat comfortable with learning about various aspects of what bitcoin is and perhaps figuring out ways to self-custody it in the event that he might start buying bitcoin through an exchange or figuring from where he is going to start to purchase bitcoin, especially some jurisdictions might have fewer options than others in terms of places and ways that normal people can start to buy bitcoin.
It's notable that we've got some plans on when and how much we'll cash these assets. We have ways of balancing our portfolios but I am seeing investors that are full pledged with Bitcoin and that's why I've asked 'even in Bitcoin' but that's them, as we say to each their own.
Personally, I doubt that there are any needs to sell any bitcoin for the first 4-10 years or more, so one of the main considerations for any person might be merely just how to accumulate as much bitcoin as he is able to accumulate within reasonable ways, and perhaps tweaking his BTC accumulation plans over the years as his BTC stash grows, so surely a guy who had been stacking BTC for $100 per week for the past 4-8 years is going to be in a different position from a guy who had been stacking only $10 per week worth of bitcoin for the past 4-8 years.
Even if we look at your own forum registration date, jossiel, if you had been stacking $100 per bitcoin each week since your forum registration in March 2016, then your level of having had accumulated bitcoin would help to inform you the extent to which you have enough BTC or if you might feel that you need more bitcoin in order to get to your target level... So
$100 per week since your forum registration date would have resulted in about $46k invested and right in the ballpark of 12.2553 BTC accumulated, which surely would give you quite a few options, yet it still is not objectively clear whether that quantity of bitcoin would have had been enough bitcoin for your particular situation or not, even though we can see that
today the spot price value of 12.2553 bitcoin is $1,160,000 and the 200-WMA value of that quantity of BTC is $528k.
We cannot turn the clock back in regards to how many any BTC any of us had accumulated or whether we had made various mistakes in our BTC accumulation journey along the way, yet I doubt that the advice in regards how to focus on bitcoin has become different merely because time has passed and bitcoin prices are currently around 200x higher than they were in March of 2016. In other words, I doubt that bitcoin's investment thesis is any weaker now than it was in March 2016, and most likely bitcoin's investment thesis is stronger today than it was in March 2016, so likely we need to consider our own bitcoin accumulation situation and figure out whether we have enough bitcoin or not. If we have enough or if we have more than enough BTC for our own situation, then we have way more options than if we still might not have enough.
So if we don't have enough bitcoin, then it seems that the course of action would be to continue to buy bitcoin regularly, consistently, persistently, ongoingly and perhaps even aggressively until we get to a point of having enough or more than enough... So, from my own perspective, the most logical way to reach such status of getting to enough bitcoin or more than enough bitcoin is by continuing to buy it. Trading it or selling to buy back more or fucking around with shitcoins are not part of any practical and/or logical way to clearly continue to build a guy's BTC stack size. If you made those kinds of trading or fucking around with shitcoins or selling bitcoin to buy back cheaper mistakes in the past, then it seems to me to better to discontinue with those bad habits and focus on buying bitcoin until you reach a status of having enough or more than enough...and surely you are the one who should be in the best position to figure out how many bitcoin is enough for you or more than enough for you.
And we all know it that BTC has been performing very well and one of the best globally that has ever existed.
Yep. We can look back at charts and see that you are stating a truth, and I don't see any evidence to see that bitcoin's investment thesis is getting any weaker with the passage of time, so it seems to me that bitcoin continues to be amongst the best (if not the best?) place to put value, so each of us likely should continue to consider it important to continue to build our bitcoin stash in as aggressive a way as we are able to do without overdoing it.
the useful idiot has been screaming to people for a couple years to DCA into bitcoin..no matter what, and no matter the price
You might be exaggerating a little bit franky.
I will agree that it is true that I have been saying very similar things for about the past 10-ish years, and so I have continued to consider that everyone needs to have bitcoin, yet they still need to figure out the particulars of their own strategy, yet if someone does not have any bitcoin, then they are no going to be prepared for the possibility that BTC prices go up unless they buy bitcoin, so in that regard, I have almost continuously suggested that all people should be attempting to prepare themselves for either BTC price direction, and the only way to prepare for up is by having some BTC.
I likely refined my message over the years, even though it has been similar and I truly don't like to take responsibility for what others do, since each person has to take responsibility for himself, whether he buys bitcoin or not, and the failure/refusal to buy bitcoin is also a kind of action through inaction, and guys are responsible for their own inactions - which are especially worse if the know about the possibility to act.
he knows (but doesnt want to admit) that DCA'ing in ATH season is not efficient and not recommended when prices are higher,
How is someone brand new to bitcoin going to know whether the BTC price is high or low? and/or how would he know if the BTC price is going to go up or down? if a brand new person does not have any bitcoin, then he has to buy some in order to be prepared for up. Sure once he has some bitcoin, then he is more prepared for up as compared with the no coiner, but it still might not be clear about whether he bought enough to justify waiting as a strategy rather than just continuing to buy.
Surely once a person has been in bitcoin for a longer period of time, perhaps even a whole cycle or more, then he likely will have some better ideas about whether he has enough bitcoin or not.
I doubt that it is very productive for brand new bitcoiners to be looking at the BTC price and trying to figure out what to do (whether or not to buy some bitcoin) based on the bitcoin price, so they likely would be better off to buy rather than wait. I hardly consider waiting to be a good investment strategy, except maybe for someone who already bought some BTC.
Let's consider a hypothetical guy who might be in his mid-to-late 20s, and he recently learned about bitcoin and started to think that it might be a good idea to invest into bitcoin.
He has been working a couple of years, and he has an annual income of about $30k per year, and his expenses are around $18k per year. Let's say that he also has around $10k in cash that is in his savings account (or perhaps stuffed under his mattress). He does not have any other investments besides his job and his living situation (in which he rents). Let's say that he also has built up some additional back up funds that he considers to be his emergency funds, so around $4,500 that he considers to be around 3 months of his expenses.. in case he loses his job or experiences some kind of an emergency expenses.
He learns about bitcoin over the past few weeks, and he has been thinking that it might be a good idea to invest into bitcoin. He sees that the current price is $94.5k, and the guy has to figure out how to start to buy bitcoin, even though he has already concluded that he believes that bitcoin would probably be a good thing to buy and even to learn more about.
The guy is tentatively thinking that he might need to invest around 15% or more of his income into bitcoin, which would be right around $4,500 or more per year, and he is thinking that even based on his current finances, he might be in a position to invest around 25% of his annual income into bitcoin, which would be right around $7,500 per year..
Do you believe that this hypothetical guy with these kinds of financial circumstances should wait before he starts buying bitcoin or should he get started investing into bitcoin?
You likely can imagine some variation of what I think based on my framing of the hypothetical and based on my forum post history, yet you are the one seeming to suggest that whatever I think is not correct, and perhaps you can tell us (franky) whether the BTC price is high or low right now, and if the current BTC price should be affecting what this hypothetical guy might do in regards to getting started in bitcoin (if at all?).
so instead he is now playing the game that people should start thinking of diversifying(putting less into bitcoin in this season) for when the prices are too high
Whatever you are describing does not sound like something that I would be suggesting in regards to any newbie to bitcoin. You might be making shit up to suggest that I am asserting that any beginner investor should diversify, especially a beginner to bitcoin. Sure if a person already has various investments at the time that he learns about bitcoin, then his already existing investments may well affect both his options and how he might consider about establishing his initial bitcoin accumulation strategies, if he decides to go down the path of establishing a bitcoin stake.
and this includes (but not in the manner he will admit to), cashing out coin at the ATH near extremes of good profit and for a while put somewhere else until the post-ATH correction has progressed for a while to then buy back in
Guys can do whatever the fuck they want, yet I consider
my discussion of various sustainable withdrawal strategies to ONLY kick in once a person has reached a status of overaccumulation of bitcoin, and surely that could take many years, perhaps even a couple cycles or more for a newbie bitcoiner to reach a status of overaccumulation.
Surely, I don't recommend fucking around with trying to figure out if the BTC price is going up or down for newer bitcoin investors, and perhaps anyone accumulating bitcoin in their very first four years (first whole cycle) may well be better off not selling any bitcoin at all, unless it is a sell and replace kind of a situation, or alternatively any guy who comes to bitcoin with an ability to front load his bitcoin investment (and presumptively achieve a status of over-accumulation of bitcoin) would have more options than an overwhelming majority of normal people who have to spend many years building up their investment (including in bitcoin) before they might even be close to being in a position to be selling any bitcoin.
That is my tentative framework, yet I also recognize that people can do whatever they like in regards to bitcoin accumulation and or maintenance of their BTC stash, even dumb shit..so surely I cannot really stop people from coming up with their own dumb ideas including ideas to fuck around with trying to trade bitcoin, or to screw around with shitcoins or to believe that it is a good idea to sell bitcoin while anticipating that they are going to be able to buy back cheaper... I consider a lot of that to be dumb.. especially for newbies in their first bitcoin cycle who probably should be trying to figure out how to accumulate bitcoin through various buying only strategies, including DCA, lump sum and/or buying the dip, even though DCA is likely amongst the best of beginner friendly strategies, guys should tailor whatever their approach or their combination of approaches to their own financial and psychological circumstances.
(as previous debate with him showed he doesnt believe in cashing out to rebuy later(trade))
(it is funny how he is now wanting people to get more involved in regularly switching and moving funds(trading) depending on the seasonal prices)
I am not switching around in my ideas. Of course, guys have more options once they have accumulated BTC. I don't recommend any trading or fucking around with shitcoins, but some guys cannot resist their desires to gamble or to believe that they can outsmart the market, so frequently I suggest to focus on bitcoin, and to only fuck around with trading and/or shitcoins with no more than 10% of the size of their bitcoin holdings, but yeah, we likely realize that traders, gamblers and shitcoiners may well not be able to focus on bitcoin and/or to limit their fucking around to less than 10% of the size of their bitcoin holdings... including that they might lose money and then figure out ways to continue to increase whatever they are allocating into shitcoins, trading and/or gambling. I recommend focusing on bitcoin first, but sure guys are going to do what they are going to do, including figuring that they can be smarter or that they will be lucky or whatever get-rich-quick motivations that they might have and cannot resist putting into practice in relation to bitcoin and/or their lame ideas of crypto.
..his game and the game of DCA promoters is that he/they want people to DCA non-stop at no matter what price, to keep the buy pressure for those who want the price to rise so they can sell.. and now he is realising how his own game is failing him as he knows he is now going to stop DCA'ing as much and then sell out near the ATH extreme and he needs to not admit that its because he failed his own "always DCA" strategy.. so he wants to play it off as something else
You really are a nutjob, sometimes. You also seem to know how to ruin an otherwise seemingly good thread.
I describe various strategies, and I tend to try to tailor my description of strategies towards newbies since frequently newbies need to figure out how to get started and to build their BTC stack, which can take a long time to do. Surely the longer that they are building their BTC stack then their options may well start to be informed by how many BTC that they had already accumulated and other aspects of their individual particulars that they need to attempt to assess and study and to set up. I outline
9 individual factors that are good for newbies to consider and to continue to figure those out even as they might advance in their bitcoin stack size or considerations about how to manage their BTC stash as they might start to approach higher levels of BTC accumulation.
yes selling and not DCAing in the extremes of ATH season is apt advise and finding other assets that are on their seasonal low is apt advise.. but the useful idiot will not admit that constant DCA 'no matter what' was bad advice
If bitcoin is amongst the best of investments (and perhaps even the best investment that is widely available to people all around the world), the probably it is best for folks to get started at whatever the BTC price happens to be. I am not sure how normie newbies are going to figure out that waiting is a good strategy, and also if a person has an investment timeline that is 4-10 years or longer, then he probably is way better off to get started sooner rather than later, and so I am having trouble figuring out in advance if a guy should wait rather than getting started, especially right now.. and maybe go back to the earlier hypothetical guy that I describe. Are you suggesting that the guy should wait or what are you suggesting the guy should do?
Sure, you have already spent more than 12 years in bitcoin, so it is quite likely that you already established your bitcoin stash in your first few years of being in bitcoin, but just because you have already established your BTC stash, I doubt that we can presume that a newbie to bitcoin should employ a waiting strategy rather than a getting started by buying some BTC strategy.
You seem to have it all figured out, and sure if we look back at the BTC price and its movements historically, we might be able to proclaim when a guy should have bought and when he should have waited, but right now, we cannot go back to earlier times and earlier prices. We have to decide what to do based on our own circumstances of today, including that if someone does not have any coins, you are suggesting that they should wait? Surely you already know that I don't consider waiting to be a good strategy, especially when it comes to bitcoin and no coiners... but hey whatever, guys can do what they like and even stay no coiners if that is what they choose to do.
so yes folks plan to sell SOME coin at the ATH extreme premiums and then plan later to buy back in when the POST-ATH correction low season starts
I don't recommend that approach to BTC, especially for newbies..
the funniest part of all, especially in this topic.. is i suggested the best investment and re-investment method to maximise the potential of entering and staying in FIRE and FI is to sell high buy low during those known seasons.
Your ideas suck because you seem to be presuming that guys (including newbies) are going to know in advance what are high BTC prices and what are low BTC prices, and trading is not a very good approach to bitcoin anyhow. Sure if someone already overly accumulated bitcoin, then he might be in a position to sell, yet I also know that frequently newbies prematurely assess themselves to have reached an overaccumulation status, so they are trading rather than investing.. .. so yeah, it can be quite tempting for newbies to fuck around with trading when they should be spending their time, energies and value in regards to building their BTC stash which can take a couple cycles to get to such status, unless they happen to be someone who is able to front load his bitcoin investment and perhaps already had many years investing in other assets prior to getting into bitcoin.
and now although he is not wording it as such, he is now tailoring his DCA game to do things exactly as i said, but wording it differently to not admit his defeat
Ok, Franky. You are the smartest person I ever did not meet (lucky me...
). Members of this forum are also so lucky to have your smarter-than-everyone-else approach to bitcoin and/or any other topic that we might discuss on the forum.
Do you wonder why you get banned from various sections of the forum when you seem to have so many difficulties to engage in any kind of genuine discussion and substantive batting around of disagreements that might sometimes exist between the perspectives of forum members?
Surely I should not judge you from your past transgressions, but you seem to have a lot of ongoing character flaws that you are having trouble controlling, and it could be possible that your various earlier bans in technical sections of the forum have been lifted and you are back into the good graces of the forum moderators in those sections?
Surely, it can be problematic when you seem to be unable to resist just making shit up in regards to substantive discussions and/or nuanced points that might have been made by other forum members, whether referring to your representation of earlier discussions with me on this topic or other topics, or perhaps other kinds of topics that I see you having with other forum members in which you seem to want to battle to the death over points that are not even in your favor to argue.. .but yeah of course, you just love to proclaim victory, whether such victory is actually based in reality or not.
Frequently you seem unable to control your emotions and your ongoing inclinations to convolute and confuse almost any topic - especially the more posts you make, the worse the situations seem to get, or at least I have noticed that kind of pattern in your various seemingly ongoingly petty battles, which likely frustrates a lot of forum members, even guys who are trying to keep the discussions somewhat productive, which I consider myself to be trying to accomplish such bare-minimum levels of productiveness and trying to stay somewhat on point, even trying to go over matters with a dweeb nutjob like yourself, who seems unable to keep himself from making shit up in order to serve his own fantasy talking points and/or ongoing desires for self-aggrandizement and to be assessed as being correct all of the time.
If you weren't so delusional, you might be able to recognize that your ongoing and seemingly petty desires to always be correct are frequently getting in the way of your abilities to carry out some kind of a productive and meaningful discussion that also does not scare other members away from the topic and/or participation in the topic, whether the topic is controversial or not... You seem to ongoingly, continuously and incessantly wanting to get into controversy where no controversy should exist.
Your own ongoingly arrogant and destructive behaviors seem to be part of the reason why "we" cannot have nice things in these here parts. #justsaying. Potentially, one of your greatest talents (if we might consider you talented in any way at all) might be that you are able to drive even the most godly and innocent of forum members into ungodly desires in their responses to your ongoing and seeming insistence upon making baloney statements... .. hahahahaha..
