Summer Bubble

[BoardGameCoin]

While I agree stability is ultimately desirable, I believe the price needs to go up significantly for the market to sustain certain kinds of activity (e.g. settlement between significantly sized accounts globally). Having BTCUSD < $1000 puts serious limits on the kind of activity that can occur in the market. I'm really not interested in stability until that level, and I do view buying below that level as a long-term good bet. Even at that level, the total bitcoin monetary base would be worth $21 billion, which still leaves some room for gradual growth.

[Serge]

Oh no m8! I didn't sell. I'm one of the "primitive btc users", actually those bubbles makes me temporarily rich.  
The problem is that they hurt hard the market, by market I mean REAL economy markets, and not a bunch of "wizards" gathering at Hogwarts as speculators are, which relies more in a stable currency than what value the currency itself helds.

You have a point, but if we ever stuck in $5s  it will stay as a nerdy-small-niche thing. Now here is a scenario, what do you think happens when some one of few are ready to put in serious cash in it?  By the looks of it there is a rush among 2 or more new big players, and they are in acquisition mode, there is nothing else except going up while rest of the world learns more about Bitcoin from media and people talking about it. It was bound to happen.  $50 million market cap is just too unsustainable for a global currency

[BCEmporium]

Sure, but being stable doesn't mean being frozen. A steady uptrend is more desirable than these bumps. Have it at 5 and 2 months later at 7, 2 months later 9, etc, is normal and good, but have it going up 100%+ in one month, knowing it will be "corrected" shortly after, isn't. Merchants may be now selling their wares for 10 BTC (130 USD) and restock next month with BTC @, let's say, 7 or 8 USD, so they've sold that for only 70 or 80 USD, and this is a problem, unless they run to exchange it to fiat, but then we will never have a bitcoin economy but a "bitcoin paypal" instead.

[BoardGameCoin]

A bitcoin paypal is good enough for the economy for the time being, particularly if merchants store off a small amount of btc as a speculative store of value. The net effect would be a lot of price support at any level, leaving the door wide open for a market cornering that drives the price up to reasonable levels. I believe we're starting to see this exact effect on a small scale right now. I do think we need another stable period to get more exchange-rate following price support, but I doubt that'll happen until somewhere in the $20-$100 range.

[Serge]

Sure, but being stable doesn't mean being frozen. A steady uptrend is more desirable than these bumps. Have it at 5 and 2 months later at 7, 2 months later 9, etc, is normal and good, but have it going up 100%+ in one month, knowing it will be "corrected" shortly after, isn't. Merchants may be now selling their wares for 10 BTC (130 USD) and restock next month with BTC @, let's say, 7 or 8 USD, so they've sold that for only 70 or 80 USD, and this is a problem, unless they run to exchange it to fiat, but then we will never have a bitcoin economy but a "bitcoin paypal" instead.

https://twitter.com/kevinrose/status/235266398899810304
http://www.avc.com/a_vc/2012/08/bitcoin-update.html

and there is more stuff out in the media and else where


gotta act quick while it is still under appreciated. I agree with you on stable slow growth, but it isn't going to work with inflow of new people, there will be period of rush, volatility and what have you while Bitcoin still being discovered.

[bitcon]

ah, the ol' summer bubble.  i remember the summer bubble of the '05 housing market. personally i see a direct correlation between the rise of the coin and the dark knight rises.   has to be the real reason.

[mufa23]

I think we are seeing a sort of Summer Bubble. But more importantly, we are seeing the true value of Bitcoin. I think it's starting to click in everyone's mind that Bitcoin is here to stay. Yes, the demand is going up bit cause... well, it's Summer. But I think it's a bit of "Hey man, Bitcoin's here to stay. I want some. This is a smart investment."

[Vandroiy]

Oh no m8! I didn't sell. I'm one of the "primitive btc users", actually those bubbles makes me temporarily rich.  
The problem is that they hurt hard the market, by market I mean REAL economy markets, and not a bunch of "wizards" gathering at Hogwarts as speculators are, which relies more in a stable currency than what value the currency itself helds.

Don't worry: the speculators who cause unnecessary instability lose money on average.

I don't think it's fair to just talk about "speculators" as if they're all one and the same. Ultimately, it's speculators who provide liquidity, allowing larger players to move in and out of Bitcoin quickly and easily. But it needs much more time.

No reason to panic or blame Bitcoin. We can stabilize this beast eventually. Not overnight though.

[Technomage]

There is not enough summers to make any conclusions about anything. Personally I believe the time of the year is 100% coincidence. Although the time between these two mega rallies might have significance. The original time was mostly due to Silk Road and the first boom, it was a complete coincidence that it was the Summer. Now it has been 1 year and maybe that has significance in itself.

[Jointops420]

Its only summer on half the globe.

[matthewh3]

Its only summer on half the globe.

Yeah the vastly mostly populated half.

[SpontaneousDisorder]

I think btc is volatile because of its tiny capitalisation. And because of its sometimes immature userbase. 

[DeathAndTaxes]

Sure, but being stable doesn't mean being frozen. A steady uptrend is more desirable than these bumps. Have it at 5 and 2 months later at 7, 2 months later 9, etc, is normal and good, but have it going up 100%+ in one month, knowing it will be "corrected" shortly after, isn't. Merchants may be now selling their wares for 10 BTC (130 USD) and restock next month with BTC @, let's say, 7 or 8 USD, so they've sold that for only 70 or 80 USD, and this is a problem, unless they run to exchange it to fiat, but then we will never have a bitcoin economy but a "bitcoin paypal" instead.

Any merchant who doesn't update their prices more than once a month probably shouldn't be a merchant ... for a lot of reasons.

It is pretty easy for a merchant to support dynamic prices in BTC so they get the same amount of fiat currency to rebuy inventory.  Hell bitpay is even clever enough to allow a merchant to take 85% in fiat and 15% in BTC so they can pay the bills and still have some long exposure to bitcoin.

[Piper67]

Sure, but being stable doesn't mean being frozen. A steady uptrend is more desirable than these bumps. Have it at 5 and 2 months later at 7, 2 months later 9, etc, is normal and good, but have it going up 100%+ in one month, knowing it will be "corrected" shortly after, isn't. Merchants may be now selling their wares for 10 BTC (130 USD) and restock next month with BTC @, let's say, 7 or 8 USD, so they've sold that for only 70 or 80 USD, and this is a problem, unless they run to exchange it to fiat, but then we will never have a bitcoin economy but a "bitcoin paypal" instead.

Any merchant who doesn't update their prices more than once a month probably shouldn't be a merchant ... for a lot of reasons.

It is pretty easy for a merchant to support dynamic prices in BTC so they get the same amount of fiat currency to rebuy inventory.  Hell bitpay is even clever enough to allow a merchant to take 85% in fiat and 15% in BTC so they can pay the bills and still have some long exposure to bitcoin.

Yup, the good folks at Bitpay have dealt with the volatility issue for merchants IMO. They just need to get the word out more.

[unclescrooge]

While I agree stability is ultimately desirable, I believe the price needs to go up significantly for the market to sustain certain kinds of activity (e.g. settlement between significantly sized accounts globally). Having BTCUSD < $1000 puts serious limits on the kind of activity that can occur in the market. I'm really not interested in stability until that level, and I do view buying below that level as a long-term good bet. Even at that level, the total bitcoin monetary base would be worth $21 billion, which still leaves some room for gradual growth.

+1

But that monetary base isn't garanteed :/

[RodeoX]

It's hard to know if this a pattern with only two examples. If it happens next year then I may look at strategies to profit from such a phenomena.

[Cablez]

"Summer bubble had me a blast.

Summer bubble happened so fast.

I met a Coin crazy for me.

Met a USD cute as can be.

Summer highs driftin' away, to uh-oh those summer lows."

[anu]

It's hard to know if this a pattern with only two examples. If it happens next year then I may look at strategies to profit from such a phenomena.

There may be a difference to last time: Last time there were a lot of early adopters cashing out - probably wanting to buy a Porsche, which is understandable. So the bubble burst.

Now it seems most early adopters are pretty much empty. They may have kept a few 1000, but the only "early adopter" I know of who has significant amounts is Satoshi himself.

If that is correct, we can expect a slow rise, maybe with temporal set backs. But a pattern entirely different from last year. But no more crashing. I think we will never again see single $ digits.

[Electricbees]

Winter is coming...

You're such a northern-hemispherian....

This is very true... In a state of the 50, which experiences two seasons. Winter, and Construction.

On an on-topic note, this massive spike in price is officially starting to scare me. Someone get Proudhon in here to talk everyone down from their rally-highs...

[salty]

"Summer bubble had me a blast.

Summer bubble happened so fast.

I met a Coin crazy for me.

Met a USD cute as can be.

Summer highs driftin' away, to uh-oh those summer lows."

A wella wella wella ...

Tell me more tell me more did your sell go too far?