If Greece defaults

[JackH]

We have €448m to the International Monetary Fund is due this Thursday (April 9th).

Then we have public sector wages and pensions, €1.7b in social security payments made by the state (April 14th).

Then we have a €200m loan repayment to the IMF (May 1st).

Now correct me if I am wrong, but if Greece cant pay any of these 3 bills we are talking about the first "western modern" country to be technically in default. If they resort back to the Drachma, it will be one of the most worthless currencies on the planet.

What I cant really figure out is the outcome, both worldwide financially against the Euro, and obviously against Bitcoin. Will we see BTC as safe heaven? Something tells me only a little, because the average Greek is not highly IT literate, but I could be wrong here.

Give me your thoughts people, as this goes down in about 3 days from now!

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[alani123]

I think that media tend to over dramatise some topics. Greece won't default and bitcoin won't be the national currency of the country.

The 2013  "bitcoin boom" in Cyprus was a great example of the media exaggerating.

[Meuh6879]

they can sold gold for bitcoins. 
a good deal ? Yes ... the time is with you, little grexit. 

[BitcoinChica]

I am not sure if so called safehavens like bitcoin will respond much to isolated geopolitical events at this point.

[medUSA]

In my view, Greece has technically defaulted by applying for an extension. Greece's economic reforms aren't very effective but I believe Greece will not default. They will repay however much they had and apply for another extension or issue new loans for the remaining debt. Eurozone will be lenient on them to avoid calamity. Bitcoin is not going to be a safe heaven for the Greeks. They already hold Euros and it is still a stable currency compared to Bitcoin.

[JackH]

In my view, Greece has technically defaulted by applying for an extension. Greece's economic reforms aren't very effective but I believe Greece will not default. They will repay however much they had and apply for another extension or issue new loans for the remaining debt. Eurozone will be lenient on them to avoid calamity. Bitcoin is not going to be a safe heaven for the Greeks. They already hold Euros and it is still a stable currency compared to Bitcoin.

I would not be so sure of the repayment. I mean, repaying the fist part is possible, but I dont even think they are capable financially of repaying the second part though. In a way it seems more sane to let them go, but at the same time that sounds chaotic and insane.

Going to be an interesting week for certain.

[NUFCrichard]

I am not sure if so called safehavens like bitcoin will respond much to isolated geopolitical events at this point.

I don't even agree that bitcoin trades as a safehaven!  Gold and silver do, but bitcoin doesn't track with them.
Greece will default, it is just a matter of when, they have too much debt and it is impossible for them to pay.

Leaving the € is the answer, it is also obvious that it is the answer, but they don't want to do it, so they have to play this stupid game of kick the can down the road, until someone mans up and makes them leave.

[Undermood]

I am not sure if so called safehavens like bitcoin will respond much to isolated geopolitical events at this point.

I don't even agree that bitcoin trades as a safehaven!  Gold and silver do, but bitcoin doesn't track with them.
Greece will default, it is just a matter of when, they have too much debt and it is impossible for them to pay.

Leaving the € is the answer, it is also obvious that it is the answer, but they don't want to do it, so they have to play this stupid game of kick the can down the road, until someone mans up and makes them leave.

ECB and IMF isnot possible to infinitely extend or issue loans to Greece. I think Greece have no chance of paying up the mounting loan and have to default otherwise the Eurosone will be drawn down! The lenders have to admit the loss and not to give the hope to them.Greece is under too much burden and has to find a way to recover!

[NeuroticFish]

We have €448m to the International Monetary Fund is due this Thursday (April 9th).

Then we have public sector wages and pensions, €1.7b in social security payments made by the state (April 14th).

Then we have a €200m loan repayment to the IMF (May 1st).

Now correct me if I am wrong, but if Greece cant pay any of these 3 bills we are talking about the first "western modern" country to be technically in default. If they resort back to the Drachma, it will be one of the most worthless currencies on the planet.

What I cant really figure out is the outcome, both worldwide financially against the Euro, and obviously against Bitcoin. Will we see BTC as safe heaven? Something tells me only a little, because the average Greek is not highly IT literate, but I could be wrong here.

Give me your thoughts people, as this goes down in about 3 days from now!

Actually Greece will not default. Politicians will find a solution again to give Greece more money.
Right now Greece plays hard, having discussions with China and Russia. This way they will either force EU to be more "merciful" with them, either will get a loan from China giving them something EU will not like.

[Natalia_AnatolioPAMM]

We have €448m to the International Monetary Fund is due this Thursday (April 9th).

Then we have public sector wages and pensions, €1.7b in social security payments made by the state (April 14th).

Then we have a €200m loan repayment to the IMF (May 1st).

Now correct me if I am wrong, but if Greece cant pay any of these 3 bills we are talking about the first "western modern" country to be technically in default. If they resort back to the Drachma, it will be one of the most worthless currencies on the planet.

What I cant really figure out is the outcome, both worldwide financially against the Euro, and obviously against Bitcoin. Will we see BTC as safe heaven? Something tells me only a little, because the average Greek is not highly IT literate, but I could be wrong here.

Give me your thoughts people, as this goes down in about 3 days from now!

Actually Greece will not default. Politicians will find a solution again to give Greece more money.
Right now Greece plays hard, having discussions with China and Russia. This way they will either force EU to be more "merciful" with them, either will get a loan from China giving them something EU will not like.

And i guess the thing with china is more likely to happen

[randy8777]

We have €448m to the International Monetary Fund is due this Thursday (April 9th).

Then we have public sector wages and pensions, €1.7b in social security payments made by the state (April 14th).

Then we have a €200m loan repayment to the IMF (May 1st).

Now correct me if I am wrong, but if Greece cant pay any of these 3 bills we are talking about the first "western modern" country to be technically in default. If they resort back to the Drachma, it will be one of the most worthless currencies on the planet.

What I cant really figure out is the outcome, both worldwide financially against the Euro, and obviously against Bitcoin. Will we see BTC as safe heaven? Something tells me only a little, because the average Greek is not highly IT literate, but I could be wrong here.

Give me your thoughts people, as this goes down in about 3 days from now!

Actually Greece will not default. Politicians will find a solution again to give Greece more money.
Right now Greece plays hard, having discussions with China and Russia. This way they will either force EU to be more "merciful" with them, either will get a loan from China giving them something EU will not like.

stakes are way too high to let greece default. as you say it is more likely that they will find a solution. but the only solution they have is giving them more money. this won't stop. it will cost the tax payers billions in the comming years.

[Q7]

I think the Greece default if it really happens by right only have very little impact on the Eurozone considering the size of its economy. But the problem that lies within is the pressure coming from the currency traders and speculators that seems to pile up the pressure and outright sell the currency. I can't say what would be the impact on bitcoin. If the majority of greeks are tech savvy they should see the potential on what bitcoin offers in the first place.

[bigtimespaghetti]

I agree with many other posters. Greece will not default (any time soon), but will have to either have the debts restructured at some point in the future or default is a certainty further down the line. The current political class were elected in to play hard ball with the EU. If it goes wrong, the next successful government will be the ones that run on the platform of grexit. But Greece will have to go through more pain for that to be a reality IMO.

Remember that most of the money is being recycled straight back to Western banks. It's in the EU's (vested) interest to keep the can kicking going for as long as possible.

It would be funny if it wasn't so tragic.

[spazzdla]

Metals would be the best bet.  Bitcoin is a good idea but as you have said you have to be pretty good with tech to use it . 

[Robert Paulson]

no one is going to be carrying physical gold and silver to pay in shops.
how will people buy things over the internet with metals? they'll have to have gold banks which i doubt anyone will trust after a default.

bitcoin is the obvious answer but most people are too stupid to realize it.

[Erdogan]

Greece will default. It can be drawn out some time only if the EU can find undercover ways to lend them money. IMF will give them a few weeks peace before they send the damning letter.

Greece will give their government workers and pensioners a letter of debt in stead of wages and pensions. When they complain that they need to eat, that will be changed to sheets of papers with an amount of euros written on them, these can be used for payments, but with a discount. After a while, they will print proper money notes and call them drakmas, and they have their own money. The government can steal value from the holders of drakmas by printing more. They can only do that a short time before the drakmas go down, amounting to a few billion euros in value, maybe 5. After that, they will construct the new drakma. Many people will suffer losses. Anyway, this is the most probable chain of events.

What they should do, is accept the fact that they are bancrupt (insolvent, not only illiquid), clear out the debt and start over. But they (probably) dare not do that.

[bigtimespaghetti]

What they should do, is accept the fact that they are bancrupt (insolvent, not only illiquid), clear out the debt and start over. But they (probably) dare not do that.

Exactly, they are between a rock and a hard place. Only when the pain becomes unbearable will the option of default become a possible reality. The western banks are fighting tooth and nail against a possible restructuring, it's ironic considering Greece's financial history of defaults. I'm not familiar with the government as I should be to comment, but my understanding is that there is not much real will to reform in Greece- I suppose far too many people are dependant on the state.

[bryant.coleman]

€448 million is not a huge amount for a country with 11 million people. But it needs to be seen whether they are willing to pay or not. Many in the governing coalition feels that these debts were created as a result of banker manipulation and Greece does not need to pay them back.

[bigtimespaghetti]

€448 million is not a huge amount for a country with 11 million people. But it needs to be seen whether they are willing to pay or not. Many in the governing coalition feels that these debts were created as a result of banker manipulation and Greece does not need to pay them back.

They certainly do not need to. But it's wether it will be more painful to continue the current path or strike out for instant pain and faster recovery. I'm very interested to see what the ultimate outcome will be. As an earlier post wrote, it's also about setting a precedent for the situation.

[develCuy]

I think that media is doing Greece a favor actually. Why? because people is going to react and work on ways for paying the debt, they will have to fix it one way or the other. It means they have to change a lot of things, not only in the government, but everyone has to change, from lazy couch potatoes to smart hard workers. In my country we had total economic devastation during the 1990s, the government made radical decisions and everyone had to work hard to restore the economy, we used to owe 30k million US$, 20 years after we now lend money to poor countries. A miracle called Peru!

In short, just let it go as deep as Greece people need to realize that the solution requires of everyone participation.