If Greece defaults

[NUFCrichard]

Greece will either shape up and pay back the money they owe, losing their sovereignty in the process to their debtors, or give up getting loans and segue into a centrally planned economy.  Neither are particularly positive for the Greeks but hey, you get what you voted for.

If they do the former, they can manage to pay off their debtors over a very long period of hard work and sacrifice, who can then pay off their own debtors, on and on.  If they do the latter, they're fucked long-term (see: Venezuela), and their debtors won't be able to repay the loans they owe to other nations, which reportedly will have a "domino effect" where more and more nations go under because the money they were hoping to get back from their loans will be completely gone.

Imagine loaning your friend 2000$ expecting a 2100$ return by the end of the month; however, instead of doing something with this money, your friend decides to live off it for a while and when it comes time to pay back, he asks you for another 2000$ and for the previous debt to be forgiven--he wants to be bailed out.  Foolishly you forgive this debt on the condition that he shape up and get his life together, so he agrees, you give him another 2000$ loan w/ interest, and when the end of the month comes, he again says he does not have the money and wants another bail-out.  You tell him to go fuck himself and if he doesn't come up with the money he owes you in another month he's gonna get his kneecaps blown to pieces (jk you just won't like him anymore and will stop giving him any more money.)  Your friend (loose use of the term anyway) is pretty upset but understands, he asks for some time to get the money together.  You say okay, and give him this time.  However, the guy you owe debt to is now knocking on your door asking for the money he lent you, with interest; you tell him that you'll have this money by the end of the month, when your friend pays you back.  He says okay and so the end of the month comes: your friend still doesn't have the money and is now telling you to go fuck yourself, you capitalist pig you.  The guy you owe money to is now in the hole as well; he tells you that if you don't pay him back, he's never gonna loan money to you ever again.

Thing is, you really need this money your debtor has been lending to you, you are dependent in some way on these loans; if he stops lending you money, you're completely fucked, too.  Tensions rise: you start banging on your friend's door demanding he pay back what is owed to you, but he has no money; he has resorted to living in a commune with a bunch of stoners who are broke as broke can be, and they all laugh at you for giving any of them any money you freaking moron.  You can't pay back the guy you owe money to; your livelihood is at stake to some degree; you may have to lower your quality of life and get into further debt with someone else, assuming you can find anyone who will lend to a man who won't pay his loans back (check out the lending subforum for what this looks like.)  The guy who you owe money to can no longer pay the guy he owes; he, too, is completely fucked.  This guy also has a guy he owes money to; that guy, you can probably guess, is completely fucked too.  That's the domino effect: everyone's getting fucked because someone down the line was a lazy douche.  Not everyone gets affected; some people can survive without the loans, but others are totally dependent on them and will be in a heap of shit if they can't keep getting those loans.

If Greece defaults, other nations may also default, and depending on how much they needed those loans to sustain their way of life (political favors and whatnot; welfare ain't free kiddos), this can be a massive issue for economies and political entities the world over, since everyone and their moms are in debt nowadays.  Not necessarily a bad thing; maybe it'll be a wakeup call for people to take control over their money and stop letting politicians and banks play with it.  Anyway, someone's bound to die from it all; someone always dies from something this massive.

As the saying goes, if you lend someone a little money, you have power over them. If you lend them a lot of money, they have power over you. 
Greece has a lot of power over the EU and world bank, because they have forced Greece into this stupid 'kick the can down the road' idea for the last 5 years, if and when Greece decides not to pay back the debt, they will have to answer for thei sub-prime lending!

I think it could happen today.  The whole situation is inevitable, hopefully someone has the guts to make it happen today, instead of after another 5 years of hurt for the Greek people.

[Sithara007]

You see, democracy is the best mirage among all the mirage. That's why most countries are moving towards it. Even, look at the Middle East Spring...they all are running for it.

Well dont get me wrong, its a relatively good thing compared to what was before.

Ancient Egypt: Slaves carried huge stones and were chained and whipped
Ancient Rome: Slaves could marry but they were bound to the household like servants and got no pay
Feudal Europe: Serfs could buy now land but only near their lord and they got payments but not much
Today: Serfs  today can work anywhere, but work 12 hours and the maffia government taxes them 70-80% (direct+indirect tax) and they are illusioned that every 4 year stamping on a fucking piece of paper is going to change society.

So it's better and better but not quite there yet don't you think?

Still not sure about it. I have seen enough democracy. Don't want to be part of democracy now. It's making me die everyday.

[spazzdla]

........

Its democracy, what did you expected. Every idiot who can put a stamp on a piece of paper can project his own insecurity and foolishness onto the other people, therefore every democracy will fail as a result.

You know my guess is that every fucking democracy on earn will end up leftist/socialist, because the ever growing debt thats accumulated by bribing voters, will result in a perpetual tax increase to pay off the interest on the bonds.

You underestimate the intelligence of people. 
In this globalized world, people can look at different countries and see how capitalist / socialist economies have fared. One of the reasons why communist regimes collapsed is that people realized life in capitalist countries was much better.

The average person is a complete fucking retarded.

[aso118]

........

Its democracy, what did you expected. Every idiot who can put a stamp on a piece of paper can project his own insecurity and foolishness onto the other people, therefore every democracy will fail as a result.

You know my guess is that every fucking democracy on earn will end up leftist/socialist, because the ever growing debt thats accumulated by bribing voters, will result in a perpetual tax increase to pay off the interest on the bonds.

You underestimate the intelligence of people. 
In this globalized world, people can look at different countries and see how capitalist / socialist economies have fared. One of the reasons why communist regimes collapsed is that people realized life in capitalist countries was much better.

The average person is a complete fucking retarded.

He may very well be. The least we can do is allow him to take his own decisions.
He may be digging his own grave, but at least it is his choice.

[5970]

Bitcoin is only a six-year old currency,  to be accepted by a country requires more time for credibility and confidence building.  a decade or two IMHO.  

The inflection point will come.  

[GreenStox]

You see, democracy is the best mirage among all the mirage. That's why most countries are moving towards it. Even, look at the Middle East Spring...they all are running for it.

Well dont get me wrong, its a relatively good thing compared to what was before.

Ancient Egypt: Slaves carried huge stones and were chained and whipped
Ancient Rome: Slaves could marry but they were bound to the household like servants and got no pay
Feudal Europe: Serfs could buy now land but only near their lord and they got payments but not much
Today: Serfs  today can work anywhere, but work 12 hours and the maffia government taxes them 70-80% (direct+indirect tax) and they are illusioned that every 4 year stamping on a fucking piece of paper is going to change society.

So it's better and better but not quite there yet don't you think?

Still not sure about it. I have seen enough democracy. Don't want to be part of democracy now. It's making me die everyday.

Well there is only 1 thing that is better than democracy, and I believe the change point is gonna be in our lifetime, which is : Freedom

Yes, freedom =/= democracy, its far from it, but we are going toward that path. We have seen enough tyrants and dictators, its really time coming to be free.

[qiwoman2]

I want Greece to do a nice phat Grexit..they can tell Germany pay Greece back for war reparations then we pay you back from what you owe us since WW2 for the loans you took from Greece called OCCUPATION LOANS..also all the gold reserve as well. Greece needs to start building its agrarian sector, get all the peeps out of the tavernas and all the universities..where they land up in debt and can't even get a job in mcdonalds after that  and get them ploughing in the fields, out of Athens and Thessalonika and back into the villages. Open ccoperatives so everyone who works can have a stake in the industries that will open once there is food security in place.  A village in China did it and they are all rich in that village..
If the Chinese can do it at the height of Communism so can Greeks, but they really need to change their mindset..we need a Grexit but with a fresh belief system..

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eHI8KzdpR8Q

[CoinTop]

Greece has always been i dept but in the past 2 years it has got way to high and i can see bankruptcy coming soon.

[Febo]

Greece's economic reforms aren't very effective but ...

Why you think are not effective. Ofcourse they are. Ten years ago, no one in Greece and in many other countries, thought is totally normal to spend more then you produce. Now majority at least in Greece realized this.  Mental reforms were effective.

[Erdogan]

Seems to me that they are buying time while they prepare the exit.
I'd guess the conversation in Greece will be like this:  "Psst! (whispering) get your money out of the banks while the ECB is providing cash and convert it to Gold and Silver...pass it on!"

The question is, will it be days or weeks, or can the ECB release more money while hiding the fact, thus drag it out a month or two.

[LiteCoinGuy]

If Greece defaults:

[manselr]

Seems to me that they are buying time while they prepare the exit.
I'd guess the conversation in Greece will be like this:  "Psst! (whispering) get your money out of the banks while the ECB is providing cash and convert it to Gold and Silver...pass it on!"

The question is, will it be days or weeks, or can the ECB release more money while hiding the fact, thus drag it out a month or two.

The Syriza government entered power too close to the 2-28 deadline to properly prepare for a Grexit. So they were stuck.  4 months will give them enough time, if they work hard at it. It also gives the Eurogroup enough time to prepare for full fiscal union if they want to.

The Eurogroup can use force. A crack team of German special forces could go in and cap Tspiras and all his merry men at any time. Or take out their families.

The Troika knows they will never be paid back. Thats OK, becaus government debt is never really paid back.. ever. It really comes down to how fast is it refinanced with new debt. That rate has to be below a certain level to be acceptable.

The ECB will be implementing QE within the next 4 months. There may be an unstated side deal here for the ECB to buy up lots of Greek new issues, especially if there is a market shortage of other Eurozone bonds.

[qiwoman2]

Seems to me that they are buying time while they prepare the exit.
I'd guess the conversation in Greece will be like this:  "Psst! (whispering) get your money out of the banks while the ECB is providing cash and convert it to Gold and Silver...pass it on!"

The question is, will it be days or weeks, or can the ECB release more money while hiding the fact, thus drag it out a month or two.

The Syriza government entered power too close to the 2-28 deadline to properly prepare for a Grexit. So they were stuck.  4 months will give them enough time, if they work hard at it. It also gives the Eurogroup enough time to prepare for full fiscal union if they want to.

The Eurogroup can use force. A crack team of German special forces could go in and cap Tspiras and all his merry men at any time. Or take out their families.

The Troika knows they will never be paid back. Thats OK, becaus government debt is never really paid back.. ever. It really comes down to how fast is it refinanced with new debt. That rate has to be below a certain level to be acceptable.

The ECB will be implementing QE within the next 4 months. There may be an unstated side deal here for the ECB to buy up lots of Greek new issues, especially if there is a market shortage of other Eurozone bonds.

It's so funny that Germany was absolved of its debt after world war two and they owe Greece heaps for war reparations yet Shoimble is always rattling on about how Greece should shape up and pay them off. Greece made the biggest mistake for buying into the EU Dream..Hey Greeks borrow from us money to buy our manufactured goods and we make sure we flatten your economy and force you to stop producing cotton, silk, tobacco and other industries.. Greece's mistake was to live beyond its means and buying into a plethora of foreign goods, now it should Grexit and start afresh.. It shouldn't yield to EU pressure...but this time it has to get rid of all the corrupt politicians and big phat whale tax evaders and educate the young to get to work to repair the damage the previous generations did by being lethargic and borrowing constantly to buy expensive imported goods..

[Cluster2k]

It's looking more and more to me like a new boss, same as the old boss situation. Syriza are merely new wolves in a different sheep's clothing.  Given the opportunity, they sell out for "free" money. 

Every opposition party is full of hubris and bluster, attacking the current government as being completely incompetent while promising that only they can bring salvation and lead the country to a better tomorrow.  Then the opposition becomes the ruling party and they discover talk is cheap.  Cycle repeats.

[GreenStox]

It's looking more and more to me like a new boss, same as the old boss situation. Syriza are merely new wolves in a different sheep's clothing.  Given the opportunity, they sell out for "free" money. 

Every opposition party is full of hubris and bluster, attacking the current government as being completely incompetent while promising that only they can bring salvation and lead the country to a better tomorrow.  Then the opposition becomes the ruling party and they discover talk is cheap.  Cycle repeats.

Makes you think about their legitimacy, opposition can easily be controlled opposition by the same tyrants...

[aso118]

If I were Tsipras I would pull a Goldman Sachs and take the last billions out of the Central Bank and lever them up to buy a couple of trillion dollars worth of Euro/$US currency swaps from Deutsche Bank and then very publicly tell the Troika to go fuck themselves.

They will never ever be able to issue bonds again.
Greece would become a social pariah, not sure if that is what he is looking for. 

[bryant.coleman]

They will never ever be able to issue bonds again.
Greece would become a social pariah, not sure if that is what he is looking for. 

I don't think so. Greece will become a pariah for the United States and the European Union. But they will be able to sell their bonds to countries such as China and Russia.

[GreenStox]

They will never ever be able to issue bonds again.
Greece would become a social pariah, not sure if that is what he is looking for. 

I don't think so. Greece will become a pariah for the United States and the European Union. But they will be able to sell their bonds to countries such as China and Russia.

And what able minded non-mentally ill person would buy them when they are near the brink of destructiion?

[bryant.coleman]

And what able minded non-mentally ill person would buy them when they are near the brink of destructiion?

Greece is strategically located in the Balkans, connecting European trade routes with those originating from Asia. Russia and China might be interested in gaining access to the ports and straits in the region. Also, Greece might become an important transit route for the various natural gas pipelines, which are currently in construction (Nabucco and Turkish Stream).

[manselr]

They will never ever be able to issue bonds again.
Greece would become a social pariah, not sure if that is what he is looking for.  

I don't think so. Greece will become a pariah for the United States and the European Union. But they will be able to sell their bonds to countries such as China and Russia.

And what able minded non-mentally ill person would buy them when they are near the brink of destructiion?

The bottom line is,  Greece has the WHIP hand here. Do they want to default ?  No.  Are they bankrupt? Yes.
Are they insolvent ? Yes. Is anyone hanging onto GREEK assets and collateral not damaged ? No.