End of the Bear Trend

[afbitcoins]

The bears have had all the fun in the last year but is the end in sight ? At the moment market is awash with pessimism and negativity. Perfect time for a bottom to confound investors.



Chart is showing data from BTC-E exchange, using log price scale.

If bitcoin rallies up to the top of the bullish channel (marked in pruple lines) it will be finally pushing free from the bubble collapse.

[afbitcoins]

Heres another observation that just occurred to me. Notice how up until Nov last year the spike on the candles were pointing down as weak hands panic sell. Since then they now spike up, as whales accumulate

[ensurance982]

I arrive at similar trendlines. My guess is that we need to cross at least $265 currently, in order to confirm a first breakout attempt out of the bear market. Definitely crossing $315 would be the final confirmation needed to end the bear trend. Of course this is just my opinion and those numbers keep going down every day.

[Hyena]

A graph from the future:

[afbitcoins]

I arrive at similar trendlines. My guess is that we need to cross at least $265 currently, in order to confirm a first breakout attempt out of the bear market. Definitely crossing $315 would be the final confirmation needed to end the bear trend. Of course this is just my opinion and those numbers keep going down every day.

yep some of those lines are very clear. Will be some tough resistance to get past on upper red line but I think we will, possibly after being wedged under it for a while first.

[ensurance982]

I arrive at similar trendlines. My guess is that we need to cross at least $265 currently, in order to confirm a first breakout attempt out of the bear market. Definitely crossing $315 would be the final confirmation needed to end the bear trend. Of course this is just my opinion and those numbers keep going down every day.

yep some of those lines are very clear. Will be some tough resistance to get past on upper red line but I think we will, possibly after being wedged under it for a while first.

If we can just transform that dotted resistance line into a dotted support line, I'd be a happy camper But I think it would be safer to just go right through it, in order not to risk another May/June 2014

[afbitcoins]

A graph from the future:

Quite near future in fact     

[afbitcoins]

For fun heres some extra bullishness, is there an inverse head n shoulders near completion ?

[Morecoin Freeman]

Bear season is over. There will not be enough coins for everyone.

[zeroday]

Just take popcorn and prepare to enjoy short squeeze massacre show

[Q7]

Still too early to make any conclusion. It might just be a dead cat bounce for all we know and that's what happening all the time. I would say we still need to wait for a firm signal. If you plot the trend line, the price needs to at least cross the 320 level before we can say it has finally made the turn.

[inca]

Still too early to make any conclusion. It might just be a dead cat bounce for all we know and that's what happening all the time. I would say we still need to wait for a firm signal. If you plot the trend line, the price needs to at least cross the 320 level before we can say it has finally made the turn.

It is a little premature. But it shows that a little concerted buying is all that is required now to break the trend. And the price we need to reach is dropping day by day.

[pattu1]

Bear season is over. There will not be enough coins for everyone.

I have heard this line for the last 6 months. 

[Amph]

Still too early to make any conclusion. It might just be a dead cat bounce for all we know and that's what happening all the time. I would say we still need to wait for a firm signal. If you plot the trend line, the price needs to at least cross the 320 level before we can say it has finally made the turn.

it could be a triangle wave, were there is a peak, then it return to its normal state, and everytime the peak is less than the previous one

something like this

[bassclef]

Still too early to make any conclusion. It might just be a dead cat bounce for all we know and that's what happening all the time. I would say we still need to wait for a firm signal. If you plot the trend line, the price needs to at least cross the 320 level before we can say it has finally made the turn.

I agree, but I've been saying for months that the absolutely huge volume selloff at Bitfinex in January is a good candidate for capitulation. Anything that removes that much selling from the market will have a bullish effect for some time, and it is why we've struggled to retest $200.

[franckuestein]

People is announcing the end of the bear trend since one year ago 
Anyway, time will put things right, we'll see.

[Jammalan the Prophet]

People is announcing the end of the bear trend since one year ago 
Anyway, time will put things right, we'll see.

This. A simple search on bear market and >

Your bear market is broken
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=609724.0

Was Today A Sign That The Bear Market Is Dead?
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=504601.0

Bitcoin Price Bull Market Has Begun!
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=900064.0

[Dilla]

End of bear market was when we left the dip at $160.

[WhatTheGox]

People is announcing the end of the bear trend since one year ago 
Anyway, time will put things right, we'll see.

This. A simple search on bear market and >

Your bear market is broken
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=609724.0

Was Today A Sign That The Bear Market Is Dead?
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=504601.0

Bitcoin Price Bull Market Has Begun!
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=900064.0

Those we are fake out bear market is over predictions, this one is real since wehave a nice pretty chart and the $160 bottom, i like it

[lexuz]

People is announcing the end of the bear trend since one year ago 
Anyway, time will put things right, we'll see.

This. A simple search on bear market and >

Your bear market is broken
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=609724.0

Was Today A Sign That The Bear Market Is Dead?
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=504601.0

Bitcoin Price Bull Market Has Begun!
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=900064.0

Those we are fake out bear market is over predictions, this one is real since wehave a nice pretty chart and the $160 bottom, i like it

Yeah i see same topic few month ago, i think thats no be happen dude. When price bottom $200. Many big player buy bitcoin for raise bitcoin price

[Afrikoin]

Good chart for perspective Afbitcoins.

Now, i believe the bear is asleep, for now, but will wake soon.

So, i'll be watching out for 2 critical points on your chart (https://www.tradingview.com/x/s37Q1J1P/)

Critical Price points to watch for potential reversal down - $245 (where purple lower line meets red dotted line from top)

$267 (where purple lower line meets red thick line from top).

I expect reversal at one of these two points (happy to be proved wrong).

Now, i recall this move up from last year october. Resembles yours - albeit from different time frames



For now, let us observe how this move unfolds.

[ssmc2]

Good chart for perspective Afbitcoins.

Now, i believe the bear is asleep, for now, but will wake soon.

So, i'll be watching out for 2 critical points on your chart (https://www.tradingview.com/x/s37Q1J1P/)

Critical Price points to watch for potential reversal down - $245 (where purple lower line meets red dotted line from top)

$267 (where purple lower line meets red thick line from top).

I expect reversal at one of these two points (happy to be proved wrong).

Now, i recall this move up from last year october. Resembles yours - albeit from different time frames



For now, let us observe how this move unfolds.

The biggest and most important difference being the drop on October 4th had nowhere near the volume we had on January 13th.

[Afrikoin]

Good chart for perspective Afbitcoins.

Now, i believe the bear is asleep, for now, but will wake soon.

So, i'll be watching out for 2 critical points on your chart (https://www.tradingview.com/x/s37Q1J1P/)

Critical Price points to watch for potential reversal down - $245 (where purple lower line meets red dotted line from top)

$267 (where purple lower line meets red thick line from top).

I expect reversal at one of these two points (happy to be proved wrong).

Now, i recall this move up from last year october. Resembles yours - albeit from different time frames

[img]https://i.imgur.com/J9Le6Vy.jpg?1[/img

For now, let us observe how this move unfolds.

The biggest and most important difference being the drop on October 4th had nowhere near the volume we had on January 13th.

Yes, arguably, we could be saying that in a couple of months about $166 (if) we hit a new low. Get my point?

[Wandererfromthenorth]

Good chart for perspective Afbitcoins.

Now, i believe the bear is asleep, for now, but will wake soon.

So, i'll be watching out for 2 critical points on your chart (https://www.tradingview.com/x/s37Q1J1P/)

Critical Price points to watch for potential reversal down - $245 (where purple lower line meets red dotted line from top)

$267 (where purple lower line meets red thick line from top).

I expect reversal at one of these two points (happy to be proved wrong).

Now, i recall this move up from last year october. Resembles yours - albeit from different time frames

[img]https://i.imgur.com/J9Le6Vy.jpg?1[/img

For now, let us observe how this move unfolds.

The biggest and most important difference being the drop on October 4th had nowhere near the volume we had on January 13th.

Yes, arguably, we could be saying that in a couple of months about $166 (if) we hit a new low. Get my point?

Yes.
Also, it needs to take into account that as price goes lower, volume measured in BTC goes up (because 1k BTC at $1000 ≠  1k BTC at $100). If you look at the volume measured in USD, the october bottom had a similar volume than the january one (on bitstamp and on chinese exchanges for example).

What's more important to look for regarding volume is that it has been decreasing since the january bottom (as others have already observed few weeks back). That's not a a trend reversal should look like (look at the increasing volume after the 2011 and 2013 trend reversals).

[inca]

Good chart for perspective Afbitcoins.

Now, i believe the bear is asleep, for now, but will wake soon.

So, i'll be watching out for 2 critical points on your chart (https://www.tradingview.com/x/s37Q1J1P/)

Critical Price points to watch for potential reversal down - $245 (where purple lower line meets red dotted line from top)

$267 (where purple lower line meets red thick line from top).

I expect reversal at one of these two points (happy to be proved wrong).

Now, i recall this move up from last year october. Resembles yours - albeit from different time frames

[img]https://i.imgur.com/J9Le6Vy.jpg?1[/img

For now, let us observe how this move unfolds.

The biggest and most important difference being the drop on October 4th had nowhere near the volume we had on January 13th.

Yes, arguably, we could be saying that in a couple of months about $166 (if) we hit a new low. Get my point?

Yes.
Also, it needs to take into account that as price goes lower, volume measured in BTC goes up (because 1k BTC at $1000 ≠  1k BTC at $100). If you look at the volume measured in USD, the october bottom had a similar volume than the january one (on bitstamp and on chinese exchanges for example).

What's more important to look for regarding volume is that it has been decreasing since the january bottom (as others have already observed few weeks back). That's not a a trend reversal should look like (look at the increasing volume after the 2011 and 2013 trend reversals).

A trend reversal is only ever identified looking in the rear view mirror. We could quite easily have reversed at 166 with high volume. After a prolonged bear market (unlike 2011 and 2013) market interest is depressed. Volume will return en masse when the bitcoin bull market has officially restarted.

[bassclef]

The potential for a big rally is building. Those with shorts open will soon feel the heat unless they are lucky enough for the market to come back to them.

A high volume selling climax to $166 paved the way for a potential bottom by causing a massive transfer of coins from weak to strong hands. Weak hands being those who bought at higher prices and were sucked in (via panic) to get back at least some of their investment; strong hands being those who sold earlier, institutional money, professional traders and other smart investors. This is an area where big money can buy directly into plenty of selling without putting up the price. And if enough selling is removed, the existing demand will create a bottom.

The selling, having been exhausted as evidenced by the inability for the market to test below $210, is now seen at very low levels. Everyone who is holding today is in it for the long haul; everyone who couldn't take the heat has already bailed. Now that coins have been redistributed to a smaller number of strong hands, supply is now limited. This is where sentiment begins to turn, and the big interests who bought rock bottom are now incentivized to entice the general public to buy. Spare me the morality of this implication--it is standard operating procedure in every market and not limited to Bitcoin.

Charles Dow said, "The public rarely sees values until they are pointed out." That is, not many have the time to think critically about investments and will wait until an "expert" tells them what to buy. To the public, a rising price suggests even higher prices. And at the beginning of bull markets the same lack of supply which caused a price bottom will cause the price to go up easily on any additional demand. The fact that Goldman Sachs is now interested has big implications in this area, as they have a huge influence in the world of investing, banking and media.

[Afrikoin]

The potential for a big rally is building. Those with shorts open will soon feel the heat unless they are lucky enough for the market to come back to them.

A high volume selling climax to $166 paved the way for a potential bottom by causing a massive transfer of coins from weak to strong hands. Weak hands being those who bought at higher prices and were sucked in (via panic) to get back at least some of their investment; strong hands being those who sold earlier, institutional money, professional traders and other smart investors. This is an area where big money can buy directly into plenty of selling without putting up the price. And if enough selling is removed, the existing demand will create a bottom.

The selling, having been exhausted as evidenced by the inability for the market to test below $210, is now seen at very low levels. Everyone who is holding today is in it for the long haul; everyone who couldn't take the heat has already bailed. Now that coins have been redistributed to a smaller number of strong hands, supply is now limited. This is where sentiment begins to turn, and the big interests who bought rock bottom are now incentivized to entice the general public to buy. Spare me the morality of this implication--it is standard operating procedure in every market and not limited to Bitcoin.

Charles Dow said, "The public rarely sees values until they are pointed out." That is, not many have the time to think critically about investments and will wait until an "expert" tells them what to buy. To the public, a rising price suggests even higher prices. And at the beginning of bull markets the same lack of supply which caused a price bottom will cause the price to go up easily on any additional demand. The fact that Goldman Sachs is now interested has big implications in this area, as they have a huge influence in the world of investing, banking and media.

Sorry, this sounds like what a politician would say. ambivalence

meanwhile

[ensurance982]

Sorry, this sounds like what a politician would say. ambivalence

meanwhile

Yeah, that's what's happening at this point. This is basically what everyone's looking at. It's important to figure out, whether there's a new drop or whether we're really going up, this time. With "Squishy" turning green again, without first establishing a new low, I'd go as far as to say that the chances aren't so slim that we may be going up this time, instead!

[bassclef]

Sorry, this sounds like what a politician would say. ambivalence

The goal is to find when supply is exhausted and the price can be supported on current demand. That's when one usually sees a turnaround. If it were so easy to short an endless downtrend, then everyone would do it. Easy money right? No, because the opposite tends to happen when a majority of market participants are on one side.

[minerpumpkin]

Good chart for perspective Afbitcoins.

Now, i believe the bear is asleep, for now, but will wake soon.

So, i'll be watching out for 2 critical points on your chart (https://www.tradingview.com/x/s37Q1J1P/)

Critical Price points to watch for potential reversal down - $245 (where purple lower line meets red dotted line from top)

$267 (where purple lower line meets red thick line from top).

I expect reversal at one of these two points (happy to be proved wrong).

Now, i recall this move up from last year october. Resembles yours - albeit from different time frames

[img]https://i.imgur.com/J9Le6Vy.jpg?1[/img

For now, let us observe how this move unfolds.

The biggest and most important difference being the drop on October 4th had nowhere near the volume we had on January 13th.

Yes, arguably, we could be saying that in a couple of months about $166 (if) we hit a new low. Get my point?

Well, in hindsight we're all wiser and it appears obvious how we should have acted. But the true challenge is to figure out how the price is going to move, in advance. And since we're all very limited on the amount of information and metrics we can take into consideration, I think it's pretty natural to try and gauge the importance of a local bottom by assessing its respective volume.

[BitcoinNewbie15]

I really hope it is the end of the bear trend, as the bears have had a lot of fun with bitcoin over the past year. Im hoping now bulls will get their time in the spotlight

[ssmc2]

Sorry, this sounds like what a politician would say. ambivalence

meanwhile

Yeah, that's what's happening at this point. This is basically what everyone's looking at. It's important to figure out, whether there's a new drop or whether we're really going up, this time. With "Squishy" turning green again, without first establishing a new low, I'd go as far as to say that the chances aren't so slim that we may be going up this time, instead!

Exactly. Those little dance moves follow each other...until they don't. Then the price reverts back to its 6 year dance move of UP.

[ajareselde]

End of the bear market, now where did i heard that before (more like ; how many times did we hear that before) ?
It looks more like a ping pong than it is a bull's return. The only thing that impresses me here is that for a long time we didn't slip under 200$ mark, even when hard dumping was involved.
Maybe it indeed is a return of bull market,but i wouldn't bet on it just yet.

[Chef Ramsay]

End of the bear market, now where did i heard that before (more like ; how many times did we hear that before) ?
It looks more like a ping pong than it is a bull's return. The only thing that impresses me here is that for a long time we didn't slip under 200$ mark, even when hard dumping was involved.
Maybe it indeed is a return of bull market,but i wouldn't bet on it just yet.

Folks should probably start to accept that the market can and will change sometime sooner rather than later. It's been a long haul at this point and the trajectory can't and won't continue. The bear market is dying and many bears are accepting or coming to terms with that.

[Amph]

Sorry, this sounds like what a politician would say. ambivalence

meanwhile

don't be fooled by those little waves, the down trend is near its end 450+ was simply to high of a price to be maintained, especially because it was not "backuped" by anything when willy and chinese have exited the market

after 200 a reverse trend is expectedo

[Afrikoin]

Sorry, this sounds like what a politician would say. ambivalence

The goal is to find when supply is exhausted and the price can be supported on current demand. That's when one usually sees a turnaround. If it were so easy to short an endless downtrend, then everyone would do it. Easy money right? No, because the opposite tends to happen when a majority of market participants are on one side.

it seems to me, there's more traders here claiming bull (majority) vs fewer shouting bear

[Afrikoin]

[bassclef]

Sorry, this sounds like what a politician would say. ambivalence

The goal is to find when supply is exhausted and the price can be supported on current demand. That's when one usually sees a turnaround. If it were so easy to short an endless downtrend, then everyone would do it. Easy money right? No, because the opposite tends to happen when a majority of market participants are on one side.

it seems to me, there's more traders here claiming bull (majority) vs fewer shouting bear

Seems that most chartists are bearish. Not that they're wrong, but one should listen to what the market says about itself, not what others say about it.

[afbitcoins]

Hi Afrikoin thanks for your input, although I think we've already seen the bottom I appreciate your contrary argument.  Can you explain that last chart a bit though?

[Afrikoin]

Hi Afrikoin thanks for your input, although I think we've already seen the bottom I appreciate your contrary argument.  Can you explain that last chart a bit though?

That's a chart by this guy https://twitter.com/4xForecaster

I track as many different analyst charts and opinions as possible - successful ones based on my personal filter (including yours from a while back).

Explain the chart? Yellow arrow pointing down???

[Afrikoin]

I guess from all i've absorbed, i don't think this is a reversal. Yeah sure, we might go up a bit, but we got to test the $200 lows proper!

Also, some here calling bull have had a poor history in forecasting moves. Like when we were at $300 and they called out for $360.

Some good names to follow IMO, Ryan, Chessnut, David Alcindor, DanV, afbitcoins (very good for mid to long term trends).

I could be wrong

[afbitcoins]

I guess from all i've absorbed, i don't think this is a reversal. Yeah sure, we might go up a bit, but we got to test the $200 lows proper!

Also, some here calling bull have had a poor history in forecasting moves. Like when we were at $300 and they called out for $360.

Some good names to follow IMO, Ryan, Chessnut, David Alcindor, DanV, afbitcoins (very good for mid to long term trends).

I could be wrong

Thanks for including me in your list  I'm already aware of some of those other names too.  Its a good point to listen to variety of ideas.

While its true at the moment that we are still obviously in the downtrend from quick glance at the initial log chart at top of this thread, I will mention why I think  we may have already seen the bottom. For this I look at lower green line on this chart showing linear price scale. This line has been hit by lows on the April 2013 'mini' bubble, the silk road panic sell off and it looks like the wierd btc-e flash crash also hit that line. Latest time it was hit is what I've been calling the bottom.

On linear price scale it is no longer obvious that we are in down trend, it looks to be flattening off with several bearish trendlines already broken.






 

[Afrikoin]

I guess from all i've absorbed, i don't think this is a reversal. Yeah sure, we might go up a bit, but we got to test the $200 lows proper!

Also, some here calling bull have had a poor history in forecasting moves. Like when we were at $300 and they called out for $360.

Some good names to follow IMO, Ryan, Chessnut, David Alcindor, DanV, afbitcoins (very good for mid to long term trends).

I could be wrong

Thanks for including me in your list  I'm already aware of some of those other names too.  Its a good point to listen to variety of ideas.

While its true at the moment that we are still obviously in the downtrend from quick glance at the initial log chart at top of this thread, I will mention why I think  we may have already seen the bottom. For this I look at lower green line on this chart showing linear price scale. This line has been hit by lows on the April 2013 'mini' bubble, the silk road panic sell off and it looks like the wierd btc-e flash crash also hit that line. Latest time it was hit is what I've been calling the bottom.

On linear price scale it is no longer obvious that we are in down trend, it looks to be flattening off with several bearish trendlines already broken.






 

Ok, good chart. recall asking about that green support line - i see it better now.

My first impression is the piecring line pattern at $166 and the one at $60 (give or take). At $60, it was followed by another bottom ($75?) respecting the green support line. I just wonder if we've gone up enough to warrant another bottom test (after $166). Some forecasts point to $185, which would line up well with your support line. Not sure if i'm clear enough.

2013 $60 bottom, up to $125 peak in September then down to $75 in mid -sept
2014 $166 bottom, up to $303 then down to $185 ??

Ew analysts are tracking a final wave 5, could be it?

[minerpumpkin]

It could still be interesting to plot some lines that leave out the gox-times. The theory that the price of BTC was artificially inflated by Gox in 2013 is still pretty widely accepted / considered. This could mean a lower bottom, although it may be difficult to find that, because traditional TA would most likely fail trying to pinpoint it.

[Afrikoin]

[afbitcoins]

It could still be interesting to plot some lines that leave out the gox-times. The theory that the price of BTC was artificially inflated by Gox in 2013 is still pretty widely accepted / considered. This could mean a lower bottom, although it may be difficult to find that, because traditional TA would most likely fail trying to pinpoint it.

I'd say price without 'artificial' inflation by gox trading bots might have still bubbled. Fear and greed are what really drive bubbles. But the trading bots might have helped spark it off. Imagine there had been no bubbles then price might have looked a bit more like this green line (which I have just sketched in very roughly).

[diodio1]

are you sure bull is coming soon? 

[Afrikoin]

[img]https://i.imgur.com/CBMhrGZ.png?1[/img

are you sure bull is coming soon?  

not mine. i snipped this from afbitcoins larger chart.

I'm watching the 2 points marked by arrows. Not sure what'll happen.

[minerpumpkin]

Alright, how do these charts line up with the recent dump on Wednesday night? I mean, we seem to have established quite an impressive potential bottom around $230 now. That amount of coins bringing us down only $4 is quite impressive!

[Nagle]

All those lines, diverting attention from the actual trend - sideways.

The price has been between $200 and $250 for most of the last three months. There was a bubble in March, but it didn't last long. That's 2015 so far.

Bitcoin, the last few years:

2013 - Wow!
2014 - Aaargh!
2015 - Meh.

[afbitcoins]

Alright, how do these charts line up with the recent dump on Wednesday night? I mean, we seem to have established quite an impressive potential bottom around $230 now. That amount of coins bringing us down only $4 is quite impressive!

So far the 'End of the Bear Trend' is still intact. Heres how its looking on latest chart from btc-e (log price scale)

[afbitcoins]

Price still bouncing up the trendline..

The end in sight yet ?

[fortif78]

Price still bouncing up the trendline..

The end in sight yet ?

I'm curious why you ignored the second local bottom around $212 for your rising trend line.
Not calling you out, just wondering  

[afbitcoins]

Price still bouncing up the trendline..

The end in sight yet ?

I'm curious why you ignored the second local bottom around $212 for your rising trend line.
Not calling you out, just wondering  

Its not ignored, if price dips below again I'll start looking at lower parallel trendlines. For now I don't think its needed tho

[techgeek]

Damn its been 6 years with this coin.

And we still going strong, yeah minor set backs of no choice like mt.gox making the coin back down, but overall view from what I see its on the incline.

If you see that graph it goes all the way back when it was like $1.00 value lol.

[randy8777]

Damn its been 6 years with this coin.

And we still going strong, yeah minor set backs of no choice like mt.gox making the coin back down, but overall view from what I see its on the incline.

If you see that graph it goes all the way back when it was like $1.00 value lol.

bitcoin is stronger than ever. when the price was dropping from $600 people were saying miners will shut down miners and difficulty would decrease significantly and so on. bitcoin proved these people wrong.

[Brewins]

what is the next target if the end f the bear trend really proves to be true?

[Cconvert2G36]

what is the next target if the end f the bear trend really proves to be true?

<213.92... lower low, test of 200, panic.

edit: Oh, the end of the... above 300 and stay there.

[afbitcoins]

what is the next target if the end f the bear trend really proves to be true?

I don't have a target but I regard bitcoin as undervalued. Particularly in the event that stock market eventually crashes (which it will), soverign debt failures, bank failures, more bailouts, more QE, as fiat continues a death spiral. Bitcoin, Gold and Silver will all benefit hugely. Stck up now while its cheap.

[bassclef]

what is the next target if the end f the bear trend really proves to be true?

I don't have a target but I regard bitcoin as undervalued. Particularly in the event that stock market eventually crashes (which it will), soverign debt failures, bank failures, more bailouts, more QE, as fiat continues a death spiral. Bitcoin, Gold and Silver will all benefit hugely. Stck up now while its cheap.

I'm in agreement. The guys dumping now are just interested in scaring the market and running stops, etc., to increase their own stash. This has been occurring for months and months but will not work indefinitely.

[photon_coin]

in a true free market, as time gets longer and longer, if govts. continue to print and make money out of nothing btc should raise to infinity in value,  but that is a mathematical model only,  the real world is quite different..... should be interesting to see what really happens,   things are at a turning point this year i believe...

[Cconvert2G36]

what is the next target if the end f the bear trend really proves to be true?

I don't have a target but I regard bitcoin as undervalued. Particularly in the event that stock market eventually crashes (which it will), soverign debt failures, bank failures, more bailouts, more QE, as fiat continues a death spiral. Bitcoin, Gold and Silver will all benefit hugely. Stck up now while its cheap.

I'm in agreement. The guys dumping now are just interested in scaring the market and running stops, etc., to increase their own stash. This has been occurring for months and months but will not work indefinitely.

Remind me, how does market selling 4000 coins on bitfenix increase your own stash?

In the best case, it raises near $1 mil USD which may or may not be used on the exchange again.

[Fiat_Hodler]

what is the next target if the end f the bear trend really proves to be true?

I don't have a target but I regard bitcoin as undervalued. Particularly in the event that stock market eventually crashes (which it will), soverign debt failures, bank failures, more bailouts, more QE, as fiat continues a death spiral. Bitcoin, Gold and Silver will all benefit hugely. Stck up now while its cheap.

I'm in agreement. The guys dumping now are just interested in scaring the market and running stops, etc., to increase their own stash. This has been occurring for months and months but will not work indefinitely.

Remind me, how does market selling 4000 coins on bitfenix increase your own stash?

In the best case, it raises near $1 mil USD which may or may not be used on the exchange again.

14k coins were dumped on bitfinex.

[bassclef]

what is the next target if the end f the bear trend really proves to be true?

I don't have a target but I regard bitcoin as undervalued. Particularly in the event that stock market eventually crashes (which it will), soverign debt failures, bank failures, more bailouts, more QE, as fiat continues a death spiral. Bitcoin, Gold and Silver will all benefit hugely. Stck up now while its cheap.

I'm in agreement. The guys dumping now are just interested in scaring the market and running stops, etc., to increase their own stash. This has been occurring for months and months but will not work indefinitely.

Remind me, how does market selling 4000 coins on bitfenix increase your own stash?

In the best case, it raises near $1 mil USD which may or may not be used on the exchange again.

Well limit selling would raise a lot more with no slippage, so one wonders why they wouldn't do that if they need to raise fiat.

The only reason for big, orderly market sells is manipulation to lower the price, which means shorting, which means covering those shorts at some point by buying back in. Or they could be taking a big loss each time, who knows. Seems silly if that's the case.

[chriswen]

Well this is what happens when so many people play derivative markets with high leverage.  The futures market had massive volume today. 

80000 Bitcoin worth of volume.  So they could have longed at the bottom to hedge and they would've made money.  And they would have closed shorts for good profit too.  Huge money to be made in futures.

[afbitcoins]

Well this is what happens when so many people play derivative markets with high leverage.  The futures market had massive volume today. 

80000 Bitcoin worth of volume.  So they could have longed at the bottom to hedge and they would've made money.  And they would have closed shorts for good profit too.  Huge money to be made in futures.

Hi chriswen, where do you find that info? i'd be quite interested to see more about that. Thanks

[bassclef]

bruh...

As others already said, total volume is not "how many coins were dumped". And definitely not "how many coins were dumped by the evil ugly manipulator™"
"The only reason for big orderly market sells" is because we are in a ... ehm... market. Why did we dump? Simply because price was being cornered and had to decide with a breakout or a breakdown. Market was weak and not conviced with a move up so it didn't break to the upside. A lot of people trading BTC saw that obvious breakdown and sold some BTCs, as it was rational to do.

Can we please stop seeing the bid side as HODLERS and the ask side as the "manipulators"? That's not how markets work.
Can we please throw away this myth that "bears don't have coins to dump anymore"?
People who buy or have bids can dump at any moment. People who sell or have asks can rebuy at any moment.
This is the nature of the market. Dumping doesn't mean manipulation, it means that at present there was no strength to the upside or that support needed to be tested, so breakdowns happen instead of breakouts.

I trade these markets as a business so let's not mince words. I know what volume is

The market is manipulated from both sides in the sense that when the biggest moneyed interests take position, the price moves and others follow. I don't think we disagree on that--it's how a market is made. Their moves, however, are often designed to separate amateurs from their money. That is a fact if you have any experience in markets outside of Bitcoin. It is not a conspiracy, it is a business. And if you think that doesn't happen in such an easy market to take control of, I've got news for you. This is apart from organic buying and selling from the public, which actually happens less often than you might think.

Market tests are a very real thing--the difference is that before an upmove, they happen to the downside. Before a downmove, they happen to the upside... USUALLY. Afterwards the market will generally revert to its medium or longer-term trend. The reason is this: If the pervading forces of supply/demand have been pushed far enough out of alignment, usually happening at tops and bottoms, it is difficult to move the market against the natural direction no matter how much of the stock you sell or buy. At market tops, ease-of-movement is down. At bottoms, it is up. This why markets move in waves and cycles. I think some trading groups don't understand this, but they will when they lose money trying to trade against prevailing forces, or the "trade winds" as it were. Once enough traders feel this wind on a very long timeline, the bear market comes to a close, first gradually and then quickly and violently. Trading short at the potential bottom of a bear market is simply putting oneself at too much risk.

Interests are collecting coins while sentiment is low in the same way antiques dealers buy junk from estate sales when nobody else wants it, refinish it and sell at a profit. It's the same way that real estate investors buy land when nobody else is interested--to profit from future sale of this land. Of course the buying parties are going to downplay its importance to their friends and the media and keep things as secretive as possible for more profit. The public (who generally don't think independently and wait for "experts" to tell them what to do) will parrot this negative sentiment and do the opposite of what they should be doing: buying with the professional interests. The last thing they want is for the public to know what they're doing and how much money they will make. It is the same business model in the markets: professional interests are selling to the public during euphoric market tops (distribution) the same stock they bought from the same panicky public at the bottom (accumulation). This happens over and over and over again, yet human fear makes it difficult to recognize and act on the opportunity when it's staring you in the face.

[Afrikoin]

bruh...

As others already said, total volume is not "how many coins were dumped". And definitely not "how many coins were dumped by the evil ugly manipulator™"
"The only reason for big orderly market sells" is because we are in a ... ehm... market. Why did we dump? Simply because price was being cornered and had to decide with a breakout or a breakdown. Market was weak and not conviced with a move up so it didn't break to the upside. A lot of people trading BTC saw that obvious breakdown and sold some BTCs, as it was rational to do.

Can we please stop seeing the bid side as HODLERS and the ask side as the "manipulators"? That's not how markets work.
Can we please throw away this myth that "bears don't have coins to dump anymore"?
People who buy or have bids can dump at any moment. People who sell or have asks can rebuy at any moment.
This is the nature of the market. Dumping doesn't mean manipulation, it means that at present there was no strength to the upside or that support needed to be tested, so breakdowns happen instead of breakouts.

I trade these markets as a business so let's not mince words. I know what volume is

The market is manipulated from both sides in the sense that when the biggest moneyed interests take position, the price moves and others follow. I don't think we disagree on that--it's how a market is made. Their moves, however, are often designed to separate amateurs from their money. That is a fact if you have any experience in markets outside of Bitcoin. It is not a conspiracy, it is a business. And if you think that doesn't happen in such an easy market to take control of, I've got news for you. This is apart from organic buying and selling from the public, which actually happens less often than you might think.

Market tests are a very real thing--the difference is that before an upmove, they happen to the downside. Before a downmove, they happen to the upside... USUALLY. Afterwards the market will generally revert to its medium or longer-term trend. The reason is this: If the pervading forces of supply/demand have been pushed far enough out of alignment, usually happening at tops and bottoms, it is difficult to move the market against the natural direction no matter how much of the stock you sell or buy. At market tops, ease-of-movement is down. At bottoms, it is up. This why markets move in waves and cycles. I think some trading groups don't understand this, but they will when they lose money trying to trade against prevailing forces, or the "trade winds" as it were. Once enough traders feel this wind on a very long timeline, the bear market comes to a close, first gradually and then quickly and violently. Trading short at the potential bottom of a bear market is simply putting oneself at too much risk.

Interests are collecting coins while sentiment is low in the same way antiques dealers buy junk from estate sales when nobody else wants it, refinish it and sell at a profit. It's the same way that real estate investors buy land when nobody else is interested--to profit from future sale of this land. Of course the buying parties are going to downplay its importance to their friends and the media and keep things as secretive as possible for more profit. The public (who generally don't think independently and wait for "experts" to tell them what to do) will parrot this negative sentiment and do the opposite of what they should be doing: buying with the professional interests. The last thing they want is for the public to know what they're doing and how much money they will make. It is the same business model in the markets: professional interests are selling to the public during euphoric market tops (distribution) the same stock they bought from the same panicky public at the bottom (accumulation). This happens over and over and over again, yet human fear makes it difficult to recognize and act on the opportunity when it's staring you in the face.

sounds like behavioral economics - herding behaviour, history bias etc etc

We keep going round in circles and arrive at the same explanation of things - like what you point out is a natural occurrence anywhere with free human occurrence - uncontrolled. I believe that's where the cutting edge is now - not just in bitcoin trading - but across markets. The human element. So i say, let us just study human psychology.

[necrita]

bruh...

As others already said, total volume is not "how many coins were dumped". And definitely not "how many coins were dumped by the evil ugly manipulator™"
"The only reason for big orderly market sells" is because we are in a ... ehm... market. Why did we dump? Simply because price was being cornered and had to decide with a breakout or a breakdown. Market was weak and not conviced with a move up so it didn't break to the upside. A lot of people trading BTC saw that obvious breakdown and sold some BTCs, as it was rational to do.

Can we please stop seeing the bid side as HODLERS and the ask side as the "manipulators"? That's not how markets work.
Can we please throw away this myth that "bears don't have coins to dump anymore"?
People who buy or have bids can dump at any moment. People who sell or have asks can rebuy at any moment.
This is the nature of the market. Dumping doesn't mean manipulation, it means that at present there was no strength to the upside or that support needed to be tested, so breakdowns happen instead of breakouts.

I trade these markets as a business so let's not mince words. I know what volume is
..snipped.

Bassclef, in your opinion does a bottom need to be put in with a under $100 washout?

[Afrikoin]

bruh...

As others already said, total volume is not "how many coins were dumped". And definitely not "how many coins were dumped by the evil ugly manipulator™"
"The only reason for big orderly market sells" is because we are in a ... ehm... market. Why did we dump? Simply because price was being cornered and had to decide with a breakout or a breakdown. Market was weak and not conviced with a move up so it didn't break to the upside. A lot of people trading BTC saw that obvious breakdown and sold some BTCs, as it was rational to do.

Can we please stop seeing the bid side as HODLERS and the ask side as the "manipulators"? That's not how markets work.
Can we please throw away this myth that "bears don't have coins to dump anymore"?
People who buy or have bids can dump at any moment. People who sell or have asks can rebuy at any moment.
This is the nature of the market. Dumping doesn't mean manipulation, it means that at present there was no strength to the upside or that support needed to be tested, so breakdowns happen instead of breakouts.

I trade these markets as a business so let's not mince words. I know what volume is
..snipped.

Bassclef, in your opinion does a bottom need to be put in with a under $100 washout?

i think we can guess what category you fall under.

According to what he/shejust said, we can't know what level that is, until IT happens! When the 'amateurs' will have been washed out enough to not ride the next 'bull wave' or 'end of the wave' wave.

Like the move yesterday, which has probably pulled in some amateurs thinking there's hope at $270. And we might get there, but then, it'll fall down. A huge red candle. to $232 - then they'll say. "Oh,it did this last time" "Hold", $226, $213 , $200 - poof!

If you're keen though, you can measure sentiment.

_____________________________________________________________

Now i was trading soybean, soyoil, corn, grains on Globex. Market manipulation is real, happens and in fact, regulators know about it but it gets swept under the rag. We knew this on the pit, it was well known. You just make sure YOU are the trader on the right end of a trade.

[Hyena]

...

Just noticed your signature. Alan Watts indeed gave very good lectures and it's our fortune that those are available on youtube for everyone to listen. However, I recall the time when I was kind of ignorant and I hated Alan's lectures because he never gave direct answers to how to beat the game of life. He only made jokes about it and constructed weird recursive spiritual sentences that were impossible to understand. It was only later when I started to comprehend what he was saying. That said, I'd recommend starting from Terence McKenna and then moving on to Alan Watts since Terence's lectures are somehow easier to understand.

About the topic, there are a couple of big things coming in the next months. NY BitLicense will be finalized and BIT will start trading soon (was it 18th of May?). Also, the block size changing debate is gathering some heat so there is a lot of uncertainty in the air. That's probably why the market has been unable to decide whether to go below 200 or above 250. The good thing is that in the mean time the weekly parabolic SAR is getting lower and lower every week. Next week the target price is 250$ for the Bitstamp's weekly pSAR to flip. It perfectly aligns with other big things looming above us. I would be surprised if nothing spectacular happens to the price during this time period.

[Afrikoin]

...

J

why go back? I already get Allan Watts.

I'll check him out though

[Hyena]

...

J

why go back? I already get Allan Watts.

I'll check him out though

I didn't mean you personally. In your signature you say alan watts is all you need but he might be a bit too hard core for rookies. thus, I wouldn't fully rely on alan.

[bassclef]

Bassclef, in your opinion does a bottom need to be put in with a under $100 washout?

No, there are simply too many lined up to buy. Bears want these prices about as bad as bulls wanted $10k in November 2013, which means it probably won't happen. Bad news would be needed to orchestrate it and give people a reason to sell. Obviously it's the opposite lately. $166 could have been it. But never say never, who knows if a crazy bear will short 30,000 bitcoins again George Soros style.

The end of a bear market typically occurs at a massive selling climax on really high volume. But the market doesn't turn right away--an accumulation zone forms for a few months as traders build big positions and trade the highs and lows of the range, which is what I have been doing since January. This area of the market cycle is akin to the "estate sale" if I'm continuing with the antique dealer analogy. If we start turning strong bull going into the summer and cross the 30 week MA on high volume, it will be very bullish for breaking out of the $200-300 range. Otherwise the rallies are liable to fail prematurely and the price will simply be rangebound, and one should limit his or her outlook to prices between strong support and resistance points, currently $210 and $310.

[Biodom]

bruh...

As others already said, total volume is not "how many coins were dumped". And definitely not "how many coins were dumped by the evil ugly manipulator™"
"The only reason for big orderly market sells" is because we are in a ... ehm... market. Why did we dump? Simply because price was being cornered and had to decide with a breakout or a breakdown. Market was weak and not conviced with a move up so it didn't break to the upside. A lot of people trading BTC saw that obvious breakdown and sold some BTCs, as it was rational to do.

Can we please stop seeing the bid side as HODLERS and the ask side as the "manipulators"? That's not how markets work.
Can we please throw away this myth that "bears don't have coins to dump anymore"?
People who buy or have bids can dump at any moment. People who sell or have asks can rebuy at any moment.
This is the nature of the market. Dumping doesn't mean manipulation, it means that at present there was no strength to the upside or that support needed to be tested, so breakdowns happen instead of breakouts.

I trade these markets as a business so let's not mince words. I know what volume is

The market is manipulated from both sides in the sense that when the biggest moneyed interests take position, the price moves and others follow. I don't think we disagree on that--it's how a market is made. Their moves, however, are often designed to separate amateurs from their money. That is a fact if you have any experience in markets outside of Bitcoin. It is not a conspiracy, it is a business. And if you think that doesn't happen in such an easy market to take control of, I've got news for you. This is apart from organic buying and selling from the public, which actually happens less often than you might think.

Market tests are a very real thing--the difference is that before an upmove, they happen to the downside. Before a downmove, they happen to the upside... USUALLY. Afterwards the market will generally revert to its medium or longer-term trend. The reason is this: If the pervading forces of supply/demand have been pushed far enough out of alignment, usually happening at tops and bottoms, it is difficult to move the market against the natural direction no matter how much of the stock you sell or buy. At market tops, ease-of-movement is down. At bottoms, it is up. This why markets move in waves and cycles. I think some trading groups don't understand this, but they will when they lose money trying to trade against prevailing forces, or the "trade winds" as it were. Once enough traders feel this wind on a very long timeline, the bear market comes to a close, first gradually and then quickly and violently. Trading short at the potential bottom of a bear market is simply putting oneself at too much risk.

Interests are collecting coins while sentiment is low in the same way antiques dealers buy junk from estate sales when nobody else wants it, refinish it and sell at a profit. It's the same way that real estate investors buy land when nobody else is interested--to profit from future sale of this land. Of course the buying parties are going to downplay its importance to their friends and the media and keep things as secretive as possible for more profit. The public (who generally don't think independently and wait for "experts" to tell them what to do) will parrot this negative sentiment and do the opposite of what they should be doing: buying with the professional interests. The last thing they want is for the public to know what they're doing and how much money they will make. It is the same business model in the markets: professional interests are selling to the public during euphoric market tops (distribution) the same stock they bought from the same panicky public at the bottom (accumulation). This happens over and over and over again, yet human fear makes it difficult to recognize and act on the opportunity when it's staring you in the face.

The above is true in general, however professional interests mostly suck at investment, i am sorry to say.
Statistics shows that avergage hedge fund manager return in 2014 was one percent according to Goldman Sachs Hedge fund Trend Monitor vs 13.7% for S&P500.
86% of active fund managers underperformed benchmarks in 2014 and 89% of them underperformed in the last 5 years.
In other words, avoid investment in active funds-they suck in ~90% cases long term (even before their unjustified fees).
I don't see how bitcoin traders can be any better, sorry.

[bassclef]

The above is true in general, however professional interests mostly suck at investment, i am sorry to say.
Statistics shows that avergage hedge fund manager return in 2014 was one percent according to Goldman Sachs Hedge fund Trend Monitor vs 13.7% for S&P500.
86% of active fund managers underperformed benchmarks in 2014 and 89% of them underperformed in the last 5 years.
In other words, avoid investment in active funds-they suck in ~90% cases long term (even before their unjustified fees).
I don't see how bitcoin traders can be any better, sorry.

The pros I'm talking about trade as part of syndicates, or operate independently as part of interconnected rings. They are above hedge fund managers in the trader hierarchy.

[Afrikoin]

any thoughts on this elongated flat sideways boring trend?

[bassclef]

any thoughts on this elongated flat sideways boring trend?

I posted this before in the Wall Observer thread, but it bears repeating.

Dow Theory

Primary Bull Market - Stage 1 - Accumulation

Hamilton noted that the first stage of a bull market was largely indistinguishable from the last reaction rally of a bear market. Pessimism, which was excessive at the end of the bear market, still reigns at the beginning of a bull market. It is a period when the public is out of stocks, the news from corporate America is bad and valuations are usually at historical lows. However, it is at this stage that the so-called “smart money” begins to accumulate stocks. This is the stage of the market when those with patience see value in owning stocks for the long haul. Stocks are cheap, but nobody seems to want them. This is the stage where Warren Buffet stated in the summer of 1974 that now was the time to buy stocks and become rich. Everyone else thought he was crazy.

In the first stage of a bull market, stocks begin to find a bottom and quietly firm up. When the market starts to rise, there is widespread disbelief that a bull market has begun. After the first leg peaks and starts to head back down, the bears come out proclaiming that the bear market is not over. It is at this stage that careful analysis is warranted to determine if the decline is a secondary movement (a correction of the first leg up). If it is a secondary move, then the low forms above the previous low, a quiet period will ensue as the market firms and then an advance will begin. When the previous peak is surpassed, the beginning of the second leg and a primary bull will be confirmed.

[afbitcoins]

any thoughts on this elongated flat sideways boring trend?

Yes its gone a bit boring, (and range bound, thanks for comments bassclef). At the moment looks like both bears and bulls bored waiting with maybe neither side getting what they want. Sometimes boring flatness preceeds quite big moves though. Wouldn't entirely suprise me to see a move up towards $290 ish where upper red line is waiting to provide strong resistance. That would be an obvious place to me to try a short if you are that way inclined. However just as likely looks like it might drop out bottom of that channel and find support at some lower parallel line

[Natalia_AnatolioPAMM]

in a true free market, as time gets longer and longer, if govts. continue to print and make money out of nothing btc should raise to infinity in value,  but that is a mathematical model only,  the real world is quite different..... should be interesting to see what really happens,   things are at a turning point this year i believe...

I agree wholeheartedly. Bitcoin either will go to the moon or will be devastated 

[fonzie]

Sorry OP, but i still cannot confirm. 

[afbitcoins]

support is failing at bottom of that channel, perhaps lower parallel will manifest somewhere near my lower dotted trendline ...

[klee]

support is failing at bottom of that channel, perhaps lower parallel will manifest somewhere near my lower dotted trendline ...

This is the same support in P&F,
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1064374.msg11416729#msg11416729

[Afrikoin]

"All feels a little omminous to me. Can there be a new lower bottom ? Or can price bust through long term resistance ? Or are we going to watch it stagnate keeping bulls and bears unsatified?"

End of the Bear Trend? Anyone?

*cheeky poke*

[spazzdla]

"All feels a little omminous to me. Can there be a new lower bottom ? Or can price bust through long term resistance ? Or are we going to watch it stagnate keeping bulls and bears unsatified?"

End of the Bear Trend? Anyone?

*cheeky poke*

BTC went from $100 to $1200 in a month..  Non of these trend guru's saw it coming or they'd be retired. 

Odds are it will move up or down with intense velocity as it has done many times in the past decimate all trend guru's predictions.

[afbitcoins]

"All feels a little omminous to me. Can there be a new lower bottom ? Or can price bust through long term resistance ? Or are we going to watch it stagnate keeping bulls and bears unsatified?"

End of the Bear Trend? Anyone?

*cheeky poke*

BTC went from $100 to $1200 in a month..  Non of these trend guru's saw it coming or they'd be retired.  

Odds are it will move up or down with intense velocity as it has done many times in the past decimate all trend guru's predictions.

Latest version of my end of bear trend is looking like this. End of bear trend idea is not invalidated yet.. I like to see to see a bounce up from lower purple line. The way the market is just nowdrifting along horizontally wouldn surprise me tho. Either way there are stern tests ahead with resistance to pass through on red dashed line first



Now waiting for attack from troll bears

[afbitcoins]

BTC went from $100 to $1200 in a month..  Non of these trend guru's saw it coming or they'd be retired.  

Odds are it will move up or down with intense velocity as it has done many times in the past decimate all trend guru's predictions.

Im betting on big moves up when bitcoin inevitably gets pumped again. But when is the question impossible yto predict. For me bitcoin has more profit upwards than down now, on longer timescales at least.

[lexuz]

BTC went from $100 to $1200 in a month..  Non of these trend guru's saw it coming or they'd be retired.  

Odds are it will move up or down with intense velocity as it has done many times in the past decimate all trend guru's predictions.

Im betting on big moves up when bitcoin inevitably gets pumped again. But when is the question impossible yto predict. For me bitcoin has more profit upwards than down now, on longer timescales at least.

I hope too bitcoin price will pumped again.i hear nasdaq now accept bitcoin as a payment, thats nice and will help bitcoin price

[afbitcoins]

Bitcoin has fallen below my upwards rising channel shown with purple trendlines  on previously posted charts in this thread



however until bitcoin falls below lower green line on this chart I would consider the bottom is still in. This is the time to accumulate



(caveat unless something really silly happens re block size)

[afbitcoins]

Time for another look at the end of the bear trend idea. Still inconclusive if this really is the end of the bear trend or there are more legs down. I still lean towards idea that the bottom is in (however still reserving funds to buy more bitcoin if it does fall further)

So with the 'big crash' still not materializing, neither rocket ships to moon, all looking a bit stable just now.

However when looking at bitcoin priced in gold instead of the usual US$

Long standing bearish trendline looks to be broken to the upside by this horizontal price. Is this foretelling what will happen versus US$ too ?


Bitcoin priced in Gold



Heres the same chart zoomed out.

Bitcoin priced in Gold

[STT]

Some good charts but more depth to movement comes from the volume of trading at each price I think.    If all while the price fells the volume has been lower then it rose on, it suggests a possible spike upwards is more possible then just examining the price alone.
If the majority of the volume was while falling then it helps confirm that direction

[Afrikoin]

Trapped between 50% and 61.8% fibs. sideways

I'm surprised you are still expecting the bottom to be in. Considering what is going on with the block debate, dark times ahead for BTC. No way this is the right time for price to go up considerably.

[Edit]



rest of it gtf.org/garzik/bitcoin/BIP100-blocksizechangeproposal.pdf

Listen to Hearn, garvin, Todd, and Adam back on this ongoing block debate. Could get ugly or atleast, ugliness is a REAL possibility. A fuckin fork!

[afbitcoins]

Some good charts but more depth to movement comes from the volume of trading at each price I think.    If all while the price fells the volume has been lower then it rose on, it suggests a possible spike upwards is more possible then just examining the price alone.
If the majority of the volume was while falling then it helps confirm that direction

@STT Can't see volume on that chart of bitcoin price in gold, i think because it is a combination of two other charts, however i agree what you say, on BTCUSD volume looked quite high (on btc-e at least)  when 'the bottom' was in and has been picking up since.

Trapped between 50% and 61.8% fibs. sideways

I'm surprised you are still expecting the bottom to be in. Considering what is going on with the block debate, dark times ahead for BTC. No way this is the right time for price to go up considerably.

@Afrikcoin I am mainly only looking at what the chart tells me, which still to me looks like the bottom is in. Although you could be right of course. The blockchain debate is ugly though I agree completely there, once resolved that may persuade some big players to jump in and start the next pump.

[bassclef]

We are sitting in the dull period before the bull move takes off that both Charles Dow and Richard Wyckoff described in their writings. It's when most of the stock is held by strong hands, the informed moneyed interests are accumulating via price support and the public is generally not interested. The mood is still bearish, especially among retail traders.

One normally sees tests during this phase in attempt to bring the market lower and clean out the last of the tenacious holders. Whether we had this through multiple attempts at breaking $215 is yet to be seen. There is still meaningful support at $210 and a lack of selling in general, so at first glance it seems a washout below $200 is pretty unlikely.

[Hyena]

Slowly but surely we are rising, 1$ per day. Soon everyone notices it and then the rally will speed up fast



We need to break ~237$ this week for the weekly pSar to flip, this is very close

[Amph]

Slowly but surely we are rising, 1$ per day. Soon everyone notices it and then the rally will speed up fast



We need to break ~237$ this week for the weekly pSar to flip, this is very close

are you sure about the 1 per day rising, this since when? this year? to me the market is resembling just a sort of a straight line for now

[Hyena]

are you sure about the 1 per day rising, this since when? this year? to me the market is resembling just a sort of a straight line for now

Of course I'm not sure and I exaggerated as the rise could be different. The point was that a slow but steady rise has been noticed lately. I remember that it started at 229, then it was at 230 for a while without going lower nor higher. Today it's 233 already. I can remember such slow and steady long term rise from the beginning of 2013 and also before and during the Summer 2012. If I was a whale this would be one of the strategies I could use --- accumulate very slowly so that it would be difficult to say in the news "bitcoin suddenly rose 20%" or something like that.

[Afrikoin]

are you sure about the 1 per day rising, this since when? this year? to me the market is resembling just a sort of a straight line for now

Of course I'm not sure and I exaggerated as the rise could be different. The point was that a slow but steady rise has been noticed lately. I remember that it started at 229, then it was at 230 for a while without going lower nor higher. Today it's 233 already. I can remember such slow and steady long term rise from the beginning of 2013 and also before and during the Summer 2012. If I was a whale this would be one of the strategies I could use --- accumulate very slowly so that it would be difficult to say in the news "bitcoin suddenly rose 20%" or something like that.

But what of before that? It was at $242 and $249 before going down to $219

[Hyena]

But what of before that? It was at $242 and $249 before going down to $219

But what before even that? It was 4$ and 5$ before going up to 17$. Everything has to start at some point. I think the time is ripe for some slow but sure constant rising. It's been a while since we last had anything like that. According to probability theory, it should happen any time now, any time. Now.

[Afrikoin]

But what of before that? It was at $242 and $249 before going down to $219

But what before even that? It was 4$ and 5$ before going up to 17$. Everything has to start at some point. I think the time is ripe for some slow but sure constant rising. It's been a while since we last had anything like that. According to probability theory, it should happen any time now, any time. Now.

I respect your opinion, don't get me wrong. I'm just trying to understand what you are saying so that I am also informed.

[afbitcoins]

After the recent break up through resistance on BTC vrs Gold chart, the recent rise in price in bitcoin has taken it above that dashed red line verus US$ too   

... Although we are also below the bull channel I've been observing.  


Heres data from BTC-E on log price scale with 4hr candles



Same chart zoomed out with 1d candles



And zoomed out even further.

[afbitcoins]

With price dipping I'm looking for a bounce around $137ish

Target is still to get above upper red trend then I will declare the end of the bear trend has come to pass

[Afrikoin]

With price dipping I'm looking for a bounce around $137 237ish?

Target is still to get above upper red trend then I will declare the end of the bear trend has come to pass

[afbitcoins]

With price dipping I'm looking for a bounce around $137 237ish?

Target is still to get above upper red trend then I will declare the end of the bear trend has come to pass

Oops yes, 137 would be quite a crash

[Afrikoin]

With price dipping I'm looking for a bounce around $137 237ish?

Target is still to get above upper red trend then I will declare the end of the bear trend has come to pass

Oops yes, 137 would be quite a crash

which is where we're headed  no end of bear

[randy8777]

With price dipping I'm looking for a bounce around $137 237ish?

Target is still to get above upper red trend then I will declare the end of the bear trend has come to pass

Oops yes, 137 would be quite a crash

which is where we're headed  no end of bear

if we're going to see a downtrend it might get below $200 but more in the range of $190-$200 don't think it will fall below that. i know that's what you are hoping for.

[MF Doom]

With price dipping I'm looking for a bounce around $137 237ish?

Target is still to get above upper red trend then I will declare the end of the bear trend has come to pass

Oops yes, 137 would be quite a crash

which is where we're headed   no end of bear

if we're going to see a downtrend it might get below $200 but more in the range of $190-$200 don't think it will fall below that. i know that's what you are hoping for.

BTC price seems to be very fragile right now, even the large companies accepting btc only has seemed to push it down more.  I think double digits are possible, it will probably be another "flash crash" where the price drops in an afternoon, and is heading back up by morning.  All it would take is ONE big bag holder to accomplish this.

And then I still would think we are in a long bear trend, possibly for years to come

[inca]

With price dipping I'm looking for a bounce around $137 237ish?

Target is still to get above upper red trend then I will declare the end of the bear trend has come to pass

Oops yes, 137 would be quite a crash

which is where we're headed   no end of bear

if we're going to see a downtrend it might get below $200 but more in the range of $190-$200 don't think it will fall below that. i know that's what you are hoping for.

BTC price seems to be very fragile right now, even the large companies accepting btc only has seemed to push it down more.  I think double digits are possible, it will probably be another "flash crash" where the price drops in an afternoon, and is heading back up by morning.  All it would take is ONE big bag holder to accomplish this.

And then I still would think we are in a long bear trend, possibly for years to come

Alternatively we are 20 dollars from breaking the log downtrend line. Place your bets.

[afbitcoins]

With price dipping I'm looking for a bounce around $137 237ish?

Target is still to get above upper red trend then I will declare the end of the bear trend has come to pass

Oops yes, 137 would be quite a crash

which is where we're headed   no end of bear

if we're going to see a downtrend it might get below $200 but more in the range of $190-$200 don't think it will fall below that. i know that's what you are hoping for.

BTC price seems to be very fragile right now, even the large companies accepting btc only has seemed to push it down more.  I think double digits are possible, it will probably be another "flash crash" where the price drops in an afternoon, and is heading back up by morning.  All it would take is ONE big bag holder to accomplish this.

And then I still would think we are in a long bear trend, possibly for years to come

Alternatively we are 20 dollars from breaking the log downtrend line. Place your bets.

Most of my chips are on the table now

[afbitcoins]

End coming into view ?

[klee]

270+ I agree:

[afbitcoins]

[afbitcoins]

On same day greeks vote no, the bearish trend appears to be breaking.

The end of the bear trend!



Edit: Note lovely touches of support and resistance when line was first touched and then where support was found on purple rising trend line.

[Afrikoin]

On same day greeks vote no, the bearish trend appears to be breaking.

The end of the bear trend!

up to $300?

[afbitcoins]

On same day greeks vote no, the bearish trend appears to be breaking.

The end of the bear trend!

up to $300?

I could imagine a spike up beyond $300 quite easily, maybe even up to $400 before next correction. As in another of my threads 'Inverse Head n Shoulders' I think possiblility of bullish chart pattern (although many sceptics think I'm mad or don't know what I'm doing... they might be right). Greek situation looks like it will drag on which also can only benefit bitcoin, plus obvious bullish signal of log trend breached. I think those bouncey dead cats are starting to bounce higher.

[BlackSpidy]

Dear bears:

You are alone. There is only darkness for you, and only death for your downtrend. This flag is just the begging. I will command a great and terrible uptrend. We will sail to a billion exchanges. We will sail until every short has been extinguished. You are strong, bear, but this uptrend is beyond strength. It is THE END and it has come for your downtrend.

[ssmc2]

Dear bears:

You are alone. There is only darkness for you, and only death for your downtrend. This flag is just the begging. I will command a great and terrible uptrend. We will sail to a billion exchanges. We will sail until every short has been extinguished. You are strong, bear, but this uptrend is beyond strength. It is THE END and it has come for your downtrend.

WORD

[afbitcoins]

Dear bears:

You are alone. There is only darkness for you, and only death for your downtrend. This flag is just the begging. I will command a great and terrible uptrend. We will sail to a billion exchanges. We will sail until every short has been extinguished. You are strong, bear, but this uptrend is beyond strength. It is THE END and it has come for your downtrend.

Thanks Black Spidy a fitting epitaph for the END of the bear trend.

[Ahab_Hunter_of_BearWhale]

Dear bears:

You are alone. There is only darkness for you, and only death for your downtrend. This flag is just the begging. I will command a great and terrible uptrend. We will sail to a billion exchanges. We will sail until every short has been extinguished. You are strong, bear, but this uptrend is beyond strength. It is THE END and it has come for your downtrend.

Hear hear! Kill the white whale! All hands after that terrible BearWhale!

Ahar look ere over the port bow! See the Bears canabalizing Bearwhale! They can't resist!









Ya Har! Now that Bearwhale be dead and consumed see the Bears start to turn on one another!

[Afrikoin]

All is lining up well afbitcoins

[afbitcoins]

Looks good to me so far Afrikoin (from bullish point of view), I'm still enjoying the end of the bear trend. Although the price is taking a bit of a dip (maybe on the news grexit looks like isn't happening ?) but in any case after recent rises a correction was needed. The bears will have their day again though, just as night follows day

Looks like a nice cup formed here, i wonder if a handle will appear ? I suspect bitcoin might be too bullish to bother with the handle but we'll see ..

[yayayo]

Looks good to me so far Afrikoin (from bullish point of view), I'm still enjoying the end of the bear trend. Although the price is taking a bit of a dip (maybe on the news grexit looks like isn't happening ?) but in any case after recent rises a correction was needed. The bears will have their day again though, just as night follows day

Looks like a nice cup formed here, i wonder if a handle will appear ? I suspect bitcoin might be too bullish to bother with the handle but we'll see ..

I would be happy if we don't move too fast. From my point of view another year of stabilization in the $300-400 range would be a much better foundation for a sustainable rise then a immediate rocket start.

It would be good to give the infrastructure a bit breathing time to evolve. The rise should be supported by real (business) adoption, not solely by speculation on short term gains. Otherwise it will be very short-lived.

ya.ya.yo!

[MF Doom]

Looks good to me so far Afrikoin (from bullish point of view), I'm still enjoying the end of the bear trend. Although the price is taking a bit of a dip (maybe on the news grexit looks like isn't happening ?) but in any case after recent rises a correction was needed. The bears will have their day again though, just as night follows day

Looks like a nice cup formed here, i wonder if a handle will appear ? I suspect bitcoin might be too bullish to bother with the handle but we'll see ..

I would be happy if we don't move too fast. From my point of view another year of stabilization in the $300-400 range would be a much better foundation for a sustainable rise then a immediate rocket start.

It would be good to give the infrastructure a bit breathing time to evolve. The rise should be supported by real (business) adoption, not solely by speculation on short term gains. Otherwise it will be very short-lived.

ya.ya.yo!

I also think those calling for a bubble are only calling for trouble.

Who in their right mind thinks ANY business that sees the price fluctuate 10-20%+ in a day is going to want ANYTHING to do with btc?  Plus with the losses a lot of people incur naturally when the bubble pops, it creates an overall NEGATIVE image and outlook for btc in general

[bassclef]

I also think those calling for a bubble are only calling for trouble.

Who in their right mind thinks ANY business that sees the price fluctuate 10-20%+ in a day is going to want ANYTHING to do with btc?  Plus with the losses a lot of people incur naturally when the bubble pops, it creates an overall NEGATIVE image and outlook for btc in general

I'm not calling for one, but a revisit of $500-$600 is certainly possible before the end of the year.

Technically the market is ripe for a rise as most of the weak hands have sold off their positions and the quality of ownership is quite high. People forget how relatively few people are into Bitcoin right now, much less buying large amounts. Those buying at these prices are institutions, professionals, whales and traders looking to ride in their wake of accumulation, which creates a temporary shortage (aka rocket launch pad). They won't be selling until a % of the gains lost in the bear market are recaptured.

Bubble territory would be far above the ATH, like $2000+. That will only happen if the bull market attracts a significant amount of money from the general investing public. Unfortunately this happened during November 2013 as (IMO) most of the rise past $800 was from the greedy public for a number of reasons You cannot stop people from being greedy and fearful, it is a trait of human nature and markets will always be full of them. Like it or not Bitcoin will see some wild swings until its market becomes larger and more mature.

[manis]

I also think those calling for a bubble are only calling for trouble.

Who in their right mind thinks ANY business that sees the price fluctuate 10-20%+ in a day is going to want ANYTHING to do with btc?  Plus with the losses a lot of people incur naturally when the bubble pops, it creates an overall NEGATIVE image and outlook for btc in general

True bulltards call for a bubble which doesn't pop. 

[afbitcoins]

Revisiting my old thread.  Once again, just like when the thread was started there is a lot of pessimism and bearish scenarios. So is the bear trend ended or not?

Heres a chart on log scale



Despite all the fuss about block size debate and bitcoin fork, I'm thinking price needs to get conclusively below $200 to really go back into bear mode.

[Afrikoin]

hi afbitcoins. been a minute

need a favor if you can.

Combined Gold and BTC chart - 2 in one. looking to see if any correlations between both. Since 2008, daily chart

Could you share one?

Or where i can get one?

[RyNinDaCleM]

hi afbitcoins. been a minute

need a favor if you can.

Combined Gold and BTC chart - 2 in one. looking to see if any correlations between both. Since 2008, daily chart

Could you share one?

Or where i can get one?

The best I can do atm..
Intraday gold is limited and historical BTC is limited on my setup currently. This offers the most data to compare



Might have better luck with TV but I can't do it right now

[Afrikoin]

hi afbitcoins. been a minute

need a favor if you can.

Combined Gold and BTC chart - 2 in one. looking to see if any correlations between both. Since 2008, daily chart

Could you share one?

Or where i can get one?

The best I can do atm..
Intraday gold is limited and historical BTC is limited on my setup currently. This offers the most data to compare



Might have better luck with TV but I can't do it right now

Thanks!

Sure, NP, take your time. Feel free to post it on 'Nights Watch by Afrikoin Thread'