End of the Bear Trend

[Afrikoin]

Good chart for perspective Afbitcoins.

Now, i believe the bear is asleep, for now, but will wake soon.

So, i'll be watching out for 2 critical points on your chart (https://www.tradingview.com/x/s37Q1J1P/)

Critical Price points to watch for potential reversal down - $245 (where purple lower line meets red dotted line from top)

$267 (where purple lower line meets red thick line from top).

I expect reversal at one of these two points (happy to be proved wrong).

Now, i recall this move up from last year october. Resembles yours - albeit from different time frames



For now, let us observe how this move unfolds.

[ssmc2]

Good chart for perspective Afbitcoins.

Now, i believe the bear is asleep, for now, but will wake soon.

So, i'll be watching out for 2 critical points on your chart (https://www.tradingview.com/x/s37Q1J1P/)

Critical Price points to watch for potential reversal down - $245 (where purple lower line meets red dotted line from top)

$267 (where purple lower line meets red thick line from top).

I expect reversal at one of these two points (happy to be proved wrong).

Now, i recall this move up from last year october. Resembles yours - albeit from different time frames



For now, let us observe how this move unfolds.

The biggest and most important difference being the drop on October 4th had nowhere near the volume we had on January 13th.

[Afrikoin]

Good chart for perspective Afbitcoins.

Now, i believe the bear is asleep, for now, but will wake soon.

So, i'll be watching out for 2 critical points on your chart (https://www.tradingview.com/x/s37Q1J1P/)

Critical Price points to watch for potential reversal down - $245 (where purple lower line meets red dotted line from top)

$267 (where purple lower line meets red thick line from top).

I expect reversal at one of these two points (happy to be proved wrong).

Now, i recall this move up from last year october. Resembles yours - albeit from different time frames

[img]https://i.imgur.com/J9Le6Vy.jpg?1[/img

For now, let us observe how this move unfolds.

The biggest and most important difference being the drop on October 4th had nowhere near the volume we had on January 13th.

Yes, arguably, we could be saying that in a couple of months about $166 (if) we hit a new low. Get my point?

[Wandererfromthenorth]

Good chart for perspective Afbitcoins.

Now, i believe the bear is asleep, for now, but will wake soon.

So, i'll be watching out for 2 critical points on your chart (https://www.tradingview.com/x/s37Q1J1P/)

Critical Price points to watch for potential reversal down - $245 (where purple lower line meets red dotted line from top)

$267 (where purple lower line meets red thick line from top).

I expect reversal at one of these two points (happy to be proved wrong).

Now, i recall this move up from last year october. Resembles yours - albeit from different time frames

[img]https://i.imgur.com/J9Le6Vy.jpg?1[/img

For now, let us observe how this move unfolds.

The biggest and most important difference being the drop on October 4th had nowhere near the volume we had on January 13th.

Yes, arguably, we could be saying that in a couple of months about $166 (if) we hit a new low. Get my point?

Yes.
Also, it needs to take into account that as price goes lower, volume measured in BTC goes up (because 1k BTC at $1000 ≠  1k BTC at $100). If you look at the volume measured in USD, the october bottom had a similar volume than the january one (on bitstamp and on chinese exchanges for example).

What's more important to look for regarding volume is that it has been decreasing since the january bottom (as others have already observed few weeks back). That's not a a trend reversal should look like (look at the increasing volume after the 2011 and 2013 trend reversals).

[inca]

Good chart for perspective Afbitcoins.

Now, i believe the bear is asleep, for now, but will wake soon.

So, i'll be watching out for 2 critical points on your chart (https://www.tradingview.com/x/s37Q1J1P/)

Critical Price points to watch for potential reversal down - $245 (where purple lower line meets red dotted line from top)

$267 (where purple lower line meets red thick line from top).

I expect reversal at one of these two points (happy to be proved wrong).

Now, i recall this move up from last year october. Resembles yours - albeit from different time frames

[img]https://i.imgur.com/J9Le6Vy.jpg?1[/img

For now, let us observe how this move unfolds.

The biggest and most important difference being the drop on October 4th had nowhere near the volume we had on January 13th.

Yes, arguably, we could be saying that in a couple of months about $166 (if) we hit a new low. Get my point?

Yes.
Also, it needs to take into account that as price goes lower, volume measured in BTC goes up (because 1k BTC at $1000 ≠  1k BTC at $100). If you look at the volume measured in USD, the october bottom had a similar volume than the january one (on bitstamp and on chinese exchanges for example).

What's more important to look for regarding volume is that it has been decreasing since the january bottom (as others have already observed few weeks back). That's not a a trend reversal should look like (look at the increasing volume after the 2011 and 2013 trend reversals).

A trend reversal is only ever identified looking in the rear view mirror. We could quite easily have reversed at 166 with high volume. After a prolonged bear market (unlike 2011 and 2013) market interest is depressed. Volume will return en masse when the bitcoin bull market has officially restarted.

[bassclef]

The potential for a big rally is building. Those with shorts open will soon feel the heat unless they are lucky enough for the market to come back to them.

A high volume selling climax to $166 paved the way for a potential bottom by causing a massive transfer of coins from weak to strong hands. Weak hands being those who bought at higher prices and were sucked in (via panic) to get back at least some of their investment; strong hands being those who sold earlier, institutional money, professional traders and other smart investors. This is an area where big money can buy directly into plenty of selling without putting up the price. And if enough selling is removed, the existing demand will create a bottom.

The selling, having been exhausted as evidenced by the inability for the market to test below $210, is now seen at very low levels. Everyone who is holding today is in it for the long haul; everyone who couldn't take the heat has already bailed. Now that coins have been redistributed to a smaller number of strong hands, supply is now limited. This is where sentiment begins to turn, and the big interests who bought rock bottom are now incentivized to entice the general public to buy. Spare me the morality of this implication--it is standard operating procedure in every market and not limited to Bitcoin.

Charles Dow said, "The public rarely sees values until they are pointed out." That is, not many have the time to think critically about investments and will wait until an "expert" tells them what to buy. To the public, a rising price suggests even higher prices. And at the beginning of bull markets the same lack of supply which caused a price bottom will cause the price to go up easily on any additional demand. The fact that Goldman Sachs is now interested has big implications in this area, as they have a huge influence in the world of investing, banking and media.

[Afrikoin]

The potential for a big rally is building. Those with shorts open will soon feel the heat unless they are lucky enough for the market to come back to them.

A high volume selling climax to $166 paved the way for a potential bottom by causing a massive transfer of coins from weak to strong hands. Weak hands being those who bought at higher prices and were sucked in (via panic) to get back at least some of their investment; strong hands being those who sold earlier, institutional money, professional traders and other smart investors. This is an area where big money can buy directly into plenty of selling without putting up the price. And if enough selling is removed, the existing demand will create a bottom.

The selling, having been exhausted as evidenced by the inability for the market to test below $210, is now seen at very low levels. Everyone who is holding today is in it for the long haul; everyone who couldn't take the heat has already bailed. Now that coins have been redistributed to a smaller number of strong hands, supply is now limited. This is where sentiment begins to turn, and the big interests who bought rock bottom are now incentivized to entice the general public to buy. Spare me the morality of this implication--it is standard operating procedure in every market and not limited to Bitcoin.

Charles Dow said, "The public rarely sees values until they are pointed out." That is, not many have the time to think critically about investments and will wait until an "expert" tells them what to buy. To the public, a rising price suggests even higher prices. And at the beginning of bull markets the same lack of supply which caused a price bottom will cause the price to go up easily on any additional demand. The fact that Goldman Sachs is now interested has big implications in this area, as they have a huge influence in the world of investing, banking and media.

Sorry, this sounds like what a politician would say. ambivalence

meanwhile

[ensurance982]

Sorry, this sounds like what a politician would say. ambivalence

meanwhile

Yeah, that's what's happening at this point. This is basically what everyone's looking at. It's important to figure out, whether there's a new drop or whether we're really going up, this time. With "Squishy" turning green again, without first establishing a new low, I'd go as far as to say that the chances aren't so slim that we may be going up this time, instead!

[bassclef]

Sorry, this sounds like what a politician would say. ambivalence

The goal is to find when supply is exhausted and the price can be supported on current demand. That's when one usually sees a turnaround. If it were so easy to short an endless downtrend, then everyone would do it. Easy money right? No, because the opposite tends to happen when a majority of market participants are on one side.

[minerpumpkin]

Good chart for perspective Afbitcoins.

Now, i believe the bear is asleep, for now, but will wake soon.

So, i'll be watching out for 2 critical points on your chart (https://www.tradingview.com/x/s37Q1J1P/)

Critical Price points to watch for potential reversal down - $245 (where purple lower line meets red dotted line from top)

$267 (where purple lower line meets red thick line from top).

I expect reversal at one of these two points (happy to be proved wrong).

Now, i recall this move up from last year october. Resembles yours - albeit from different time frames

[img]https://i.imgur.com/J9Le6Vy.jpg?1[/img

For now, let us observe how this move unfolds.

The biggest and most important difference being the drop on October 4th had nowhere near the volume we had on January 13th.

Yes, arguably, we could be saying that in a couple of months about $166 (if) we hit a new low. Get my point?

Well, in hindsight we're all wiser and it appears obvious how we should have acted. But the true challenge is to figure out how the price is going to move, in advance. And since we're all very limited on the amount of information and metrics we can take into consideration, I think it's pretty natural to try and gauge the importance of a local bottom by assessing its respective volume.

[BitcoinNewbie15]

I really hope it is the end of the bear trend, as the bears have had a lot of fun with bitcoin over the past year. Im hoping now bulls will get their time in the spotlight

[ssmc2]

Sorry, this sounds like what a politician would say. ambivalence

meanwhile

Yeah, that's what's happening at this point. This is basically what everyone's looking at. It's important to figure out, whether there's a new drop or whether we're really going up, this time. With "Squishy" turning green again, without first establishing a new low, I'd go as far as to say that the chances aren't so slim that we may be going up this time, instead!

Exactly. Those little dance moves follow each other...until they don't. Then the price reverts back to its 6 year dance move of UP.

[ajareselde]

End of the bear market, now where did i heard that before (more like ; how many times did we hear that before) ?
It looks more like a ping pong than it is a bull's return. The only thing that impresses me here is that for a long time we didn't slip under 200$ mark, even when hard dumping was involved.
Maybe it indeed is a return of bull market,but i wouldn't bet on it just yet.

[Chef Ramsay]

End of the bear market, now where did i heard that before (more like ; how many times did we hear that before) ?
It looks more like a ping pong than it is a bull's return. The only thing that impresses me here is that for a long time we didn't slip under 200$ mark, even when hard dumping was involved.
Maybe it indeed is a return of bull market,but i wouldn't bet on it just yet.

Folks should probably start to accept that the market can and will change sometime sooner rather than later. It's been a long haul at this point and the trajectory can't and won't continue. The bear market is dying and many bears are accepting or coming to terms with that.

[Amph]

Sorry, this sounds like what a politician would say. ambivalence

meanwhile

don't be fooled by those little waves, the down trend is near its end 450+ was simply to high of a price to be maintained, especially because it was not "backuped" by anything when willy and chinese have exited the market

after 200 a reverse trend is expectedo

[Afrikoin]

Sorry, this sounds like what a politician would say. ambivalence

The goal is to find when supply is exhausted and the price can be supported on current demand. That's when one usually sees a turnaround. If it were so easy to short an endless downtrend, then everyone would do it. Easy money right? No, because the opposite tends to happen when a majority of market participants are on one side.

it seems to me, there's more traders here claiming bull (majority) vs fewer shouting bear

[Afrikoin]

[bassclef]

Sorry, this sounds like what a politician would say. ambivalence

The goal is to find when supply is exhausted and the price can be supported on current demand. That's when one usually sees a turnaround. If it were so easy to short an endless downtrend, then everyone would do it. Easy money right? No, because the opposite tends to happen when a majority of market participants are on one side.

it seems to me, there's more traders here claiming bull (majority) vs fewer shouting bear

Seems that most chartists are bearish. Not that they're wrong, but one should listen to what the market says about itself, not what others say about it.

[afbitcoins]

Hi Afrikoin thanks for your input, although I think we've already seen the bottom I appreciate your contrary argument.  Can you explain that last chart a bit though?

[Afrikoin]

Hi Afrikoin thanks for your input, although I think we've already seen the bottom I appreciate your contrary argument.  Can you explain that last chart a bit though?

That's a chart by this guy https://twitter.com/4xForecaster

I track as many different analyst charts and opinions as possible - successful ones based on my personal filter (including yours from a while back).

Explain the chart? Yellow arrow pointing down???