End of the Bear Trend

[photon_coin]

in a true free market, as time gets longer and longer, if govts. continue to print and make money out of nothing btc should raise to infinity in value,  but that is a mathematical model only,  the real world is quite different..... should be interesting to see what really happens,   things are at a turning point this year i believe...

[Cconvert2G36]

what is the next target if the end f the bear trend really proves to be true?

I don't have a target but I regard bitcoin as undervalued. Particularly in the event that stock market eventually crashes (which it will), soverign debt failures, bank failures, more bailouts, more QE, as fiat continues a death spiral. Bitcoin, Gold and Silver will all benefit hugely. Stck up now while its cheap.

I'm in agreement. The guys dumping now are just interested in scaring the market and running stops, etc., to increase their own stash. This has been occurring for months and months but will not work indefinitely.

Remind me, how does market selling 4000 coins on bitfenix increase your own stash?

In the best case, it raises near $1 mil USD which may or may not be used on the exchange again.

[Fiat_Hodler]

what is the next target if the end f the bear trend really proves to be true?

I don't have a target but I regard bitcoin as undervalued. Particularly in the event that stock market eventually crashes (which it will), soverign debt failures, bank failures, more bailouts, more QE, as fiat continues a death spiral. Bitcoin, Gold and Silver will all benefit hugely. Stck up now while its cheap.

I'm in agreement. The guys dumping now are just interested in scaring the market and running stops, etc., to increase their own stash. This has been occurring for months and months but will not work indefinitely.

Remind me, how does market selling 4000 coins on bitfenix increase your own stash?

In the best case, it raises near $1 mil USD which may or may not be used on the exchange again.

14k coins were dumped on bitfinex.

[bassclef]

what is the next target if the end f the bear trend really proves to be true?

I don't have a target but I regard bitcoin as undervalued. Particularly in the event that stock market eventually crashes (which it will), soverign debt failures, bank failures, more bailouts, more QE, as fiat continues a death spiral. Bitcoin, Gold and Silver will all benefit hugely. Stck up now while its cheap.

I'm in agreement. The guys dumping now are just interested in scaring the market and running stops, etc., to increase their own stash. This has been occurring for months and months but will not work indefinitely.

Remind me, how does market selling 4000 coins on bitfenix increase your own stash?

In the best case, it raises near $1 mil USD which may or may not be used on the exchange again.

Well limit selling would raise a lot more with no slippage, so one wonders why they wouldn't do that if they need to raise fiat.

The only reason for big, orderly market sells is manipulation to lower the price, which means shorting, which means covering those shorts at some point by buying back in. Or they could be taking a big loss each time, who knows. Seems silly if that's the case.

[chriswen]

Well this is what happens when so many people play derivative markets with high leverage.  The futures market had massive volume today. 

80000 Bitcoin worth of volume.  So they could have longed at the bottom to hedge and they would've made money.  And they would have closed shorts for good profit too.  Huge money to be made in futures.

[afbitcoins]

Well this is what happens when so many people play derivative markets with high leverage.  The futures market had massive volume today. 

80000 Bitcoin worth of volume.  So they could have longed at the bottom to hedge and they would've made money.  And they would have closed shorts for good profit too.  Huge money to be made in futures.

Hi chriswen, where do you find that info? i'd be quite interested to see more about that. Thanks

[bassclef]

bruh...

As others already said, total volume is not "how many coins were dumped". And definitely not "how many coins were dumped by the evil ugly manipulator™"
"The only reason for big orderly market sells" is because we are in a ... ehm... market. Why did we dump? Simply because price was being cornered and had to decide with a breakout or a breakdown. Market was weak and not conviced with a move up so it didn't break to the upside. A lot of people trading BTC saw that obvious breakdown and sold some BTCs, as it was rational to do.

Can we please stop seeing the bid side as HODLERS and the ask side as the "manipulators"? That's not how markets work.
Can we please throw away this myth that "bears don't have coins to dump anymore"?
People who buy or have bids can dump at any moment. People who sell or have asks can rebuy at any moment.
This is the nature of the market. Dumping doesn't mean manipulation, it means that at present there was no strength to the upside or that support needed to be tested, so breakdowns happen instead of breakouts.

I trade these markets as a business so let's not mince words. I know what volume is

The market is manipulated from both sides in the sense that when the biggest moneyed interests take position, the price moves and others follow. I don't think we disagree on that--it's how a market is made. Their moves, however, are often designed to separate amateurs from their money. That is a fact if you have any experience in markets outside of Bitcoin. It is not a conspiracy, it is a business. And if you think that doesn't happen in such an easy market to take control of, I've got news for you. This is apart from organic buying and selling from the public, which actually happens less often than you might think.

Market tests are a very real thing--the difference is that before an upmove, they happen to the downside. Before a downmove, they happen to the upside... USUALLY. Afterwards the market will generally revert to its medium or longer-term trend. The reason is this: If the pervading forces of supply/demand have been pushed far enough out of alignment, usually happening at tops and bottoms, it is difficult to move the market against the natural direction no matter how much of the stock you sell or buy. At market tops, ease-of-movement is down. At bottoms, it is up. This why markets move in waves and cycles. I think some trading groups don't understand this, but they will when they lose money trying to trade against prevailing forces, or the "trade winds" as it were. Once enough traders feel this wind on a very long timeline, the bear market comes to a close, first gradually and then quickly and violently. Trading short at the potential bottom of a bear market is simply putting oneself at too much risk.

Interests are collecting coins while sentiment is low in the same way antiques dealers buy junk from estate sales when nobody else wants it, refinish it and sell at a profit. It's the same way that real estate investors buy land when nobody else is interested--to profit from future sale of this land. Of course the buying parties are going to downplay its importance to their friends and the media and keep things as secretive as possible for more profit. The public (who generally don't think independently and wait for "experts" to tell them what to do) will parrot this negative sentiment and do the opposite of what they should be doing: buying with the professional interests. The last thing they want is for the public to know what they're doing and how much money they will make. It is the same business model in the markets: professional interests are selling to the public during euphoric market tops (distribution) the same stock they bought from the same panicky public at the bottom (accumulation). This happens over and over and over again, yet human fear makes it difficult to recognize and act on the opportunity when it's staring you in the face.

[Afrikoin]

bruh...

As others already said, total volume is not "how many coins were dumped". And definitely not "how many coins were dumped by the evil ugly manipulator™"
"The only reason for big orderly market sells" is because we are in a ... ehm... market. Why did we dump? Simply because price was being cornered and had to decide with a breakout or a breakdown. Market was weak and not conviced with a move up so it didn't break to the upside. A lot of people trading BTC saw that obvious breakdown and sold some BTCs, as it was rational to do.

Can we please stop seeing the bid side as HODLERS and the ask side as the "manipulators"? That's not how markets work.
Can we please throw away this myth that "bears don't have coins to dump anymore"?
People who buy or have bids can dump at any moment. People who sell or have asks can rebuy at any moment.
This is the nature of the market. Dumping doesn't mean manipulation, it means that at present there was no strength to the upside or that support needed to be tested, so breakdowns happen instead of breakouts.

I trade these markets as a business so let's not mince words. I know what volume is

The market is manipulated from both sides in the sense that when the biggest moneyed interests take position, the price moves and others follow. I don't think we disagree on that--it's how a market is made. Their moves, however, are often designed to separate amateurs from their money. That is a fact if you have any experience in markets outside of Bitcoin. It is not a conspiracy, it is a business. And if you think that doesn't happen in such an easy market to take control of, I've got news for you. This is apart from organic buying and selling from the public, which actually happens less often than you might think.

Market tests are a very real thing--the difference is that before an upmove, they happen to the downside. Before a downmove, they happen to the upside... USUALLY. Afterwards the market will generally revert to its medium or longer-term trend. The reason is this: If the pervading forces of supply/demand have been pushed far enough out of alignment, usually happening at tops and bottoms, it is difficult to move the market against the natural direction no matter how much of the stock you sell or buy. At market tops, ease-of-movement is down. At bottoms, it is up. This why markets move in waves and cycles. I think some trading groups don't understand this, but they will when they lose money trying to trade against prevailing forces, or the "trade winds" as it were. Once enough traders feel this wind on a very long timeline, the bear market comes to a close, first gradually and then quickly and violently. Trading short at the potential bottom of a bear market is simply putting oneself at too much risk.

Interests are collecting coins while sentiment is low in the same way antiques dealers buy junk from estate sales when nobody else wants it, refinish it and sell at a profit. It's the same way that real estate investors buy land when nobody else is interested--to profit from future sale of this land. Of course the buying parties are going to downplay its importance to their friends and the media and keep things as secretive as possible for more profit. The public (who generally don't think independently and wait for "experts" to tell them what to do) will parrot this negative sentiment and do the opposite of what they should be doing: buying with the professional interests. The last thing they want is for the public to know what they're doing and how much money they will make. It is the same business model in the markets: professional interests are selling to the public during euphoric market tops (distribution) the same stock they bought from the same panicky public at the bottom (accumulation). This happens over and over and over again, yet human fear makes it difficult to recognize and act on the opportunity when it's staring you in the face.

sounds like behavioral economics - herding behaviour, history bias etc etc

We keep going round in circles and arrive at the same explanation of things - like what you point out is a natural occurrence anywhere with free human occurrence - uncontrolled. I believe that's where the cutting edge is now - not just in bitcoin trading - but across markets. The human element. So i say, let us just study human psychology.

[necrita]

bruh...

As others already said, total volume is not "how many coins were dumped". And definitely not "how many coins were dumped by the evil ugly manipulator™"
"The only reason for big orderly market sells" is because we are in a ... ehm... market. Why did we dump? Simply because price was being cornered and had to decide with a breakout or a breakdown. Market was weak and not conviced with a move up so it didn't break to the upside. A lot of people trading BTC saw that obvious breakdown and sold some BTCs, as it was rational to do.

Can we please stop seeing the bid side as HODLERS and the ask side as the "manipulators"? That's not how markets work.
Can we please throw away this myth that "bears don't have coins to dump anymore"?
People who buy or have bids can dump at any moment. People who sell or have asks can rebuy at any moment.
This is the nature of the market. Dumping doesn't mean manipulation, it means that at present there was no strength to the upside or that support needed to be tested, so breakdowns happen instead of breakouts.

I trade these markets as a business so let's not mince words. I know what volume is
..snipped.

Bassclef, in your opinion does a bottom need to be put in with a under $100 washout?

[Afrikoin]

bruh...

As others already said, total volume is not "how many coins were dumped". And definitely not "how many coins were dumped by the evil ugly manipulator™"
"The only reason for big orderly market sells" is because we are in a ... ehm... market. Why did we dump? Simply because price was being cornered and had to decide with a breakout or a breakdown. Market was weak and not conviced with a move up so it didn't break to the upside. A lot of people trading BTC saw that obvious breakdown and sold some BTCs, as it was rational to do.

Can we please stop seeing the bid side as HODLERS and the ask side as the "manipulators"? That's not how markets work.
Can we please throw away this myth that "bears don't have coins to dump anymore"?
People who buy or have bids can dump at any moment. People who sell or have asks can rebuy at any moment.
This is the nature of the market. Dumping doesn't mean manipulation, it means that at present there was no strength to the upside or that support needed to be tested, so breakdowns happen instead of breakouts.

I trade these markets as a business so let's not mince words. I know what volume is
..snipped.

Bassclef, in your opinion does a bottom need to be put in with a under $100 washout?

i think we can guess what category you fall under.

According to what he/shejust said, we can't know what level that is, until IT happens! When the 'amateurs' will have been washed out enough to not ride the next 'bull wave' or 'end of the wave' wave.

Like the move yesterday, which has probably pulled in some amateurs thinking there's hope at $270. And we might get there, but then, it'll fall down. A huge red candle. to $232 - then they'll say. "Oh,it did this last time" "Hold", $226, $213 , $200 - poof!

If you're keen though, you can measure sentiment.

_____________________________________________________________

Now i was trading soybean, soyoil, corn, grains on Globex. Market manipulation is real, happens and in fact, regulators know about it but it gets swept under the rag. We knew this on the pit, it was well known. You just make sure YOU are the trader on the right end of a trade.

[Hyena]

...

Just noticed your signature. Alan Watts indeed gave very good lectures and it's our fortune that those are available on youtube for everyone to listen. However, I recall the time when I was kind of ignorant and I hated Alan's lectures because he never gave direct answers to how to beat the game of life. He only made jokes about it and constructed weird recursive spiritual sentences that were impossible to understand. It was only later when I started to comprehend what he was saying. That said, I'd recommend starting from Terence McKenna and then moving on to Alan Watts since Terence's lectures are somehow easier to understand.

About the topic, there are a couple of big things coming in the next months. NY BitLicense will be finalized and BIT will start trading soon (was it 18th of May?). Also, the block size changing debate is gathering some heat so there is a lot of uncertainty in the air. That's probably why the market has been unable to decide whether to go below 200 or above 250. The good thing is that in the mean time the weekly parabolic SAR is getting lower and lower every week. Next week the target price is 250$ for the Bitstamp's weekly pSAR to flip. It perfectly aligns with other big things looming above us. I would be surprised if nothing spectacular happens to the price during this time period.

[Afrikoin]

...

J

why go back? I already get Allan Watts.

I'll check him out though

[Hyena]

...

J

why go back? I already get Allan Watts.

I'll check him out though

I didn't mean you personally. In your signature you say alan watts is all you need but he might be a bit too hard core for rookies. thus, I wouldn't fully rely on alan.

[bassclef]

Bassclef, in your opinion does a bottom need to be put in with a under $100 washout?

No, there are simply too many lined up to buy. Bears want these prices about as bad as bulls wanted $10k in November 2013, which means it probably won't happen. Bad news would be needed to orchestrate it and give people a reason to sell. Obviously it's the opposite lately. $166 could have been it. But never say never, who knows if a crazy bear will short 30,000 bitcoins again George Soros style.

The end of a bear market typically occurs at a massive selling climax on really high volume. But the market doesn't turn right away--an accumulation zone forms for a few months as traders build big positions and trade the highs and lows of the range, which is what I have been doing since January. This area of the market cycle is akin to the "estate sale" if I'm continuing with the antique dealer analogy. If we start turning strong bull going into the summer and cross the 30 week MA on high volume, it will be very bullish for breaking out of the $200-300 range. Otherwise the rallies are liable to fail prematurely and the price will simply be rangebound, and one should limit his or her outlook to prices between strong support and resistance points, currently $210 and $310.

[Biodom]

bruh...

As others already said, total volume is not "how many coins were dumped". And definitely not "how many coins were dumped by the evil ugly manipulator™"
"The only reason for big orderly market sells" is because we are in a ... ehm... market. Why did we dump? Simply because price was being cornered and had to decide with a breakout or a breakdown. Market was weak and not conviced with a move up so it didn't break to the upside. A lot of people trading BTC saw that obvious breakdown and sold some BTCs, as it was rational to do.

Can we please stop seeing the bid side as HODLERS and the ask side as the "manipulators"? That's not how markets work.
Can we please throw away this myth that "bears don't have coins to dump anymore"?
People who buy or have bids can dump at any moment. People who sell or have asks can rebuy at any moment.
This is the nature of the market. Dumping doesn't mean manipulation, it means that at present there was no strength to the upside or that support needed to be tested, so breakdowns happen instead of breakouts.

I trade these markets as a business so let's not mince words. I know what volume is

The market is manipulated from both sides in the sense that when the biggest moneyed interests take position, the price moves and others follow. I don't think we disagree on that--it's how a market is made. Their moves, however, are often designed to separate amateurs from their money. That is a fact if you have any experience in markets outside of Bitcoin. It is not a conspiracy, it is a business. And if you think that doesn't happen in such an easy market to take control of, I've got news for you. This is apart from organic buying and selling from the public, which actually happens less often than you might think.

Market tests are a very real thing--the difference is that before an upmove, they happen to the downside. Before a downmove, they happen to the upside... USUALLY. Afterwards the market will generally revert to its medium or longer-term trend. The reason is this: If the pervading forces of supply/demand have been pushed far enough out of alignment, usually happening at tops and bottoms, it is difficult to move the market against the natural direction no matter how much of the stock you sell or buy. At market tops, ease-of-movement is down. At bottoms, it is up. This why markets move in waves and cycles. I think some trading groups don't understand this, but they will when they lose money trying to trade against prevailing forces, or the "trade winds" as it were. Once enough traders feel this wind on a very long timeline, the bear market comes to a close, first gradually and then quickly and violently. Trading short at the potential bottom of a bear market is simply putting oneself at too much risk.

Interests are collecting coins while sentiment is low in the same way antiques dealers buy junk from estate sales when nobody else wants it, refinish it and sell at a profit. It's the same way that real estate investors buy land when nobody else is interested--to profit from future sale of this land. Of course the buying parties are going to downplay its importance to their friends and the media and keep things as secretive as possible for more profit. The public (who generally don't think independently and wait for "experts" to tell them what to do) will parrot this negative sentiment and do the opposite of what they should be doing: buying with the professional interests. The last thing they want is for the public to know what they're doing and how much money they will make. It is the same business model in the markets: professional interests are selling to the public during euphoric market tops (distribution) the same stock they bought from the same panicky public at the bottom (accumulation). This happens over and over and over again, yet human fear makes it difficult to recognize and act on the opportunity when it's staring you in the face.

The above is true in general, however professional interests mostly suck at investment, i am sorry to say.
Statistics shows that avergage hedge fund manager return in 2014 was one percent according to Goldman Sachs Hedge fund Trend Monitor vs 13.7% for S&P500.
86% of active fund managers underperformed benchmarks in 2014 and 89% of them underperformed in the last 5 years.
In other words, avoid investment in active funds-they suck in ~90% cases long term (even before their unjustified fees).
I don't see how bitcoin traders can be any better, sorry.

[bassclef]

The above is true in general, however professional interests mostly suck at investment, i am sorry to say.
Statistics shows that avergage hedge fund manager return in 2014 was one percent according to Goldman Sachs Hedge fund Trend Monitor vs 13.7% for S&P500.
86% of active fund managers underperformed benchmarks in 2014 and 89% of them underperformed in the last 5 years.
In other words, avoid investment in active funds-they suck in ~90% cases long term (even before their unjustified fees).
I don't see how bitcoin traders can be any better, sorry.

The pros I'm talking about trade as part of syndicates, or operate independently as part of interconnected rings. They are above hedge fund managers in the trader hierarchy.

[Afrikoin]

any thoughts on this elongated flat sideways boring trend?

[bassclef]

any thoughts on this elongated flat sideways boring trend?

I posted this before in the Wall Observer thread, but it bears repeating.

Dow Theory

Primary Bull Market - Stage 1 - Accumulation

Hamilton noted that the first stage of a bull market was largely indistinguishable from the last reaction rally of a bear market. Pessimism, which was excessive at the end of the bear market, still reigns at the beginning of a bull market. It is a period when the public is out of stocks, the news from corporate America is bad and valuations are usually at historical lows. However, it is at this stage that the so-called “smart money” begins to accumulate stocks. This is the stage of the market when those with patience see value in owning stocks for the long haul. Stocks are cheap, but nobody seems to want them. This is the stage where Warren Buffet stated in the summer of 1974 that now was the time to buy stocks and become rich. Everyone else thought he was crazy.

In the first stage of a bull market, stocks begin to find a bottom and quietly firm up. When the market starts to rise, there is widespread disbelief that a bull market has begun. After the first leg peaks and starts to head back down, the bears come out proclaiming that the bear market is not over. It is at this stage that careful analysis is warranted to determine if the decline is a secondary movement (a correction of the first leg up). If it is a secondary move, then the low forms above the previous low, a quiet period will ensue as the market firms and then an advance will begin. When the previous peak is surpassed, the beginning of the second leg and a primary bull will be confirmed.

[afbitcoins]

any thoughts on this elongated flat sideways boring trend?

Yes its gone a bit boring, (and range bound, thanks for comments bassclef). At the moment looks like both bears and bulls bored waiting with maybe neither side getting what they want. Sometimes boring flatness preceeds quite big moves though. Wouldn't entirely suprise me to see a move up towards $290 ish where upper red line is waiting to provide strong resistance. That would be an obvious place to me to try a short if you are that way inclined. However just as likely looks like it might drop out bottom of that channel and find support at some lower parallel line

[Natalia_AnatolioPAMM]

in a true free market, as time gets longer and longer, if govts. continue to print and make money out of nothing btc should raise to infinity in value,  but that is a mathematical model only,  the real world is quite different..... should be interesting to see what really happens,   things are at a turning point this year i believe...

I agree wholeheartedly. Bitcoin either will go to the moon or will be devastated