May 17th to May 30th diff adjustment thread with promo. Picks closed

[Mikestang]

I don't know how everyone else feels.  But I am pretty happy with it looking like a negative.  it is a nice suprise to me.

We still are having trouble getting in 240's and staying there.  A little bump in price would be nice.

Summer in the north kicking in I bet.  I know I'm turning a few of mine off now, getting too hot.

[1714697045]

1714697045

[notlist3d]

I don't know how everyone else feels.  But I am pretty happy with it looking like a negative.  it is a nice suprise to me.

We still are having trouble getting in 240's and staying there.  A little bump in price would be nice.

Summer in the north kicking in I bet.  I know I'm turning a few of mine off now, getting too hot.

I did have some nice cool rainy weather. But that changed today and heat got up there.  I was thinking I could wait to install my new gable fan till weekend but if it keeps heating up I might need to turn it into a mid week project.

[Jamphone]

I don't know how everyone else feels.  But I am pretty happy with it looking like a negative.  it is a nice suprise to me.

We still are having trouble getting in 240's and staying there.  A little bump in price would be nice.

Summer in the north kicking in I bet.  I know I'm turning a few of mine off now, getting too hot.

Ya, this is what I figure too. In particular Inner Mongolia, where a lot of mines are, is hitting summer for the first time for most of these mines. In terms of MW of capacity, about 75% has only been online since September. Even if it doesn't shut the mine down, heat could easily cause a 5% decrease in hash rates.

[notlist3d]

I really like watching your rental philipma1957.  Is there a way for us to see when/if it hit's blocks? 

I saw the current stat's on speed but not sure how to tell with that pool if your hitting blocks.   Neat idea of you to share it though thanks for doing it.

[philipma1957]

I really like watching your rental philipma1957.  Is there a way for us to see when/if it hit's blocks?  

I saw the current stat's on speed but not sure how to tell with that pool if your hitting blocks.   Neat idea of you to share it though thanks for doing it.

yeah    you can look here


https://blockchain.info/address/114J9nTVYHq5ZXA5hKorTLpyF6pxZgL6pf

[philipma1957]

here go to http://btc.blockr.io/charts

171 on 5-17-2015  most about 95 of the blocks were last adjustment.  bitcoinwisdom still uses them for the guess in the future.

so above is 27 over norm of 144 for the day,  but only 10 for the 'real' count this adjustment.

143 5-18  -1        +9 running count
138 5-19  -6        +3
138 5-20  -6         -3
153 5-21 +9        +12
144 5-22   0        +12
110 5-23  -34      -22
145 5-24  +1       -21
141 5-25  -3        -24
144 5-26   0        -24
138 5-27  -6        -30

about 1487 made we should be at  1517

1487/1517 =  0.98022   - 1 =  -0.01977  or  (-1.977%) The real time number


https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty

529 blocks left    (-1.97%) just about a perfect match  since we got past all of the last adjustment in bitcoinwisdom's prediction model


Once again not much change price at 238 usd

[notlist3d]

here go to http://btc.blockr.io/charts

171 on 5-17-2015  most about 95 of the blocks were last adjustment.  bitcoinwisdom still uses them for the guess in the future.

so above is 27 over norm of 144 for the day,  but only 10 for the 'real' count this adjustment.

143 5-18  -1        +9 running count
138 5-19  -6        +3
138 5-20  -6         -3
153 5-21 +9        +12
144 5-22   0        +12
110 5-23  -34      -22
145 5-24  +1       -21
141 5-25  -3        -24
144 5-26   0        -24
138 5-27  -6        -30

about 1487 made we should be at  1517

1487/1517 =  0.98022   - 1 =  -0.01977  or  (-1.977%) The real time number


https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty

529 blocks left    (-1.97%) just about a perfect match  since we got past all of the last adjustment in bitcoinwisdom's prediction model


Once again not much change price at 238 usd

It is nice to see almost a negative 2 on difficultly.  This past months have been surprising with number of negatives.

And we are kinda stuck in sub 240 price.  Seems anytime in past week we get over eventually we end up in 230's once again.

[alh]

I saw the following, and thought a link here would be interesting:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1072474.0

I think we'll see the impact of this in the near future, which will mean a positive increase in difficulty. 

@Phil: You might to amend the title to say picks are closed.

[philipma1957]

Read the link. seems like the s-3 will still earn money!

a 1 ph farm of s-3's    using .035 cents per kwatt  earns 1737 usd a day.

they may be at 0.025 cents and earn 1929 usd a day.

this farm would still earn up until the halfing.

How will this affect diff.  My guess is stable diff until 50 days or 100 days before the halfing .

I do not know what to think the halfing will do.

[kenscho]

Read the link. seems like the s-3 will still earn money!

a 1 ph farm of s-3's    using .035 cents per kwatt  earns 1737 usd a day.

they may be at 0.025 cents and earn 1929 usd a day.

this farm would still earn up until the halfing.

How will this affect diff.  My guess is stable diff until 50 days or 100 days before the halfing .

I do not know what to think the halfing will do.

maybe the BTC Price will rise to 400+ or it stays.
When it stays many miners will shut down.. but then de diff will be more less...
no one can say what will happen

[notlist3d]

Bitwisdom keeps looking better and better:

Bitcoin Difficulty:    48,807,487,245
Estimated Next Difficulty:    47,469,564,887 (-2.74%)
Adjust time:    After 443 Blocks, About 3.2 days

[philipma1957]

Bitwisdom keeps looking better and better:

Bitcoin Difficulty:    48,807,487,245
Estimated Next Difficulty:    47,469,564,887 (-2.74%)
Adjust time:    After 443 Blocks, About 3.2 days

we had a mad spike at the end.  last time.  I am hoping we have a strong drop here.  maybe -4%

[alh]

I saw the following, and thought a link here would be interesting:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1072474.0

I think we'll see the impact of this in the near future, which will mean a positive increase in difficulty. 

@Phil: You might to amend the title to say picks are closed.

An amendment to the above. When I asked in that thread, the poster responded that the gear was NOT new, but rather they were relocating. So my original thought though that it would  up the long term hashrate was incorrect. It is though, several Petahash that's offline for a while during their move. Hence some of the "variance" we see could be physical location churn of hardware, as well as Bitcoin luck/variance. I'll take it while I can get it, but they "will be back...." (said with Arnold's voice).

[philipma1957]

I saw the following, and thought a link here would be interesting:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1072474.0

I think we'll see the impact of this in the near future, which will mean a positive increase in difficulty. 

@Phil: You might to amend the title to say picks are closed.

An amendment to the above. When I asked in that thread, the poster responded that the gear was NOT new, but rather they were relocating. So my original thought though that it would  up the long term hashrate was incorrect. It is though, several Petahash that's offline for a while during their move. Hence some of the "variance" we see could be physical location churn of hardware, as well as Bitcoin luck/variance. I'll take it while I can get it, but they "will be back...." (said with Arnold's voice).

they have 3 cent power add.5 cent and they are 3.5 cents at worse. the s -3 is  .8 watts a.gh  the sp20 can approach  .4 watts

so to be on an even playing  field you would need 8 cent power.

I think this kind of move means very little diff growth due to new gear.

It appears building a new farm and moving your old gear is better $ move to make then designing a new s-7.

If I were bitmaintech I will be moving 1 valley north from this build .  my 7 or 8 cent farm will be a 3 or 4 cent farm

moving good gear in trucks to a new place at have the power .  the 2015 mantra where is the cheap power?

[TheAnalogKid]

I saw the following, and thought a link here would be interesting:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1072474.0

I think we'll see the impact of this in the near future, which will mean a positive increase in difficulty. 

@Phil: You might to amend the title to say picks are closed.

An amendment to the above. When I asked in that thread, the poster responded that the gear was NOT new, but rather they were relocating. So my original thought though that it would  up the long term hashrate was incorrect. It is though, several Petahash that's offline for a while during their move. Hence some of the "variance" we see could be physical location churn of hardware, as well as Bitcoin luck/variance. I'll take it while I can get it, but they "will be back...." (said with Arnold's voice).

they have 3 cent power add.5 cent and they are 3.5 cents at worse. the s -3 is  .8 watts a.gh  the sp20 can approach  .4 watts

so to be on an even playing  field you would need 8 cent power.

I think this kind of move means very little diff growth due to new gear.

It appears building a new farm and moving your old gear is better $ move to make then designing a new s-7.

If I were bitmaintech I will be moving 1 valley north from this build .  my 7 or 8 cent farm will be a 3 or 4 cent farm

moving good gear in trucks to a new place at have the power .  the 2015 mantra where is the cheap power?

They also stated that they were looking to acquire lots of old S3's to make it to their proposed 12PH number, so again there, reuse of hardware that either was or is still hashing away.  My guess is that they do get some equipment that was offline, but most of it will just be shifting so we really should not see much of an increase overall, just maybe a dip then return as units are in transit (if the number of units is significant enough in one shot).

[notlist3d]

Bitwisdom keeps looking better and better:

Bitcoin Difficulty:    48,807,487,245
Estimated Next Difficulty:    47,616,142,492 (-2.44%)
Adjust time:    After 397 Blocks, About 2.9 days
Hashrate(?):    332,785,641 GH/s

If this continues we might lose more this week then we gained during previous difficulty.  That would be a nice thing.

[philipma1957]

here go to http://btc.blockr.io/charts

171 on 5-17-2015  most about 95 of the blocks were last adjustment.  bitcoinwisdom still uses them for the guess in the future.

so above is 27 over norm of 144 for the day,  but only 10 for the 'real' count this adjustment.

143 5-18  -1        +9 running count
138 5-19  -6        +3
138 5-20  -6         -3
153 5-21 +9        +12
144 5-22   0        +12
110 5-23  -34      -22
145 5-24  +1       -21
141 5-25  -3        -24
144 5-26   0        -24
142 5-27  -2        -26
136 5-28  -8        -34


about 1646 made we should be at  1680

1646/1680 =  0.97976   - 1 =  -0.02023  or  (-2.023%) The real time number


https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty


370  blocks left      (-2.27%)  


And I am thinking   -1.0  to -3.0  as a good ball park  most of us are out of it for now.




Once again not much change price at 239 usd


Looking back I was pushing open - neg  spots at the end of picking time

Some one going to grab one of the negatives before we close?



-1.51% to -1.75%  or -2.01% to -2.25%  have a shot  and are open





-1.76% to -2.00%    alh


-1.26% to -1.50%    TheAnalogKid
-1.01% to -1.25%    philipma1957
-0.76% to -1.00%    Mikestang
-0.51% to -0.75%    kenscho
-0.26% to -0.50%    Jamphone
-0.01% to -0.25%    EMIF

+0.01% to +0.25%  tlhIwI
+0.26% to +0.50%  zebedee   
+0.51% to +0.75%  valkir
+0.76% to +1.00%  gallery2000 note I switched to this since jonnybravo0311 had picked your pick already

….

[notlist3d]

It's looking pretty good on difficulty change, it appeared to be a positive.  So I'm happy it went down from first of week.

Were slightly going down in price.  Were around 237 right down heading down slowly.

[Mikestang]

So far this is the first time since I started guessing that I've been on the right side of the +/-.

[notlist3d]

So far this is the first time since I started guessing that I've been on the right side of the +/-.

I remain on opposite side. But I am still very happy since it went negative.  I was sure it would be positive. 

I'm happy i did not bet any money on this.