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Author Topic: PnF TA  (Read 190384 times)
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August 03, 2015, 11:22:33 AM
 #361

After the C&H, looks like there's a forming of a pennant, some more days to complete the triangle.
What is needed for the kickstart you think?
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August 03, 2015, 12:18:49 PM
 #362

After the C&H, looks like there's a forming of a pennant, some more days to complete the triangle.
What is needed for the kickstart you think?


Serious buy volume from a whale in order to break 320 for good and/or some bullish news.

From a P&F PoV we just need to hit 300-304. Even if we fall back to 288-292 I expect a catapult to form which will be extremely bullish.
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August 03, 2015, 01:45:20 PM
 #363

What is the next major resistance line above $320?

It might be wise to sell all private asset shorts for the time being. Looks like we need one more test of the resistance to the upside before the next move downwards in Sept-Oct. Also it appears the low in private assets won't be until Spring 2016, as we need to allow time for the October kickoff of the contagion in Europe to spread into liquidity crisis and selloff globally with capital rushing into the dollar as the safe haven...

It might even be wise to reestablish some long positions for the time being. There may be a possibility of the Bitcoin price moving above $320 and staying below the next zone of resistance.

http://www.armstrongeconomics.com/archives/35597



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While gold elected the Monthly Bearish at 1155, we did so well below that level, yet holding the 1084 number both weekly and monthly. Our energy models are turning positive so it does not appear we will get major follow-through at this time. When you elect a Bearish Reversal that far from the number, you typically bounce back to retest it before proceeding further.

We have a Directional Change back to back for August and September and July was a turning point. So, we may see a reaction to the upside to flush out the shorts at this time since we have excessive bearishness building in the press as the WSJ comment that gold is the “pet rock”.

A reaction rally at this point BEFORE new lows will relieve the short positions but this is not likely to last beyond September. Therefore we are more likely than not going to see the final decline stage into the Benchmarks [now].

http://www.armstrongeconomics.com/archives/35556

Quote
We must always play it by the numbers and time. Nothing else matters at the end of the day. Clearly, gold is not in such a Waterfall Event no matter how bearish everyone gets. We have moved beyond the 3 year window from 2011 and the Yearly Bearish Reversal at $681 has held. To make that final low in gold, the vast majority have to write off gold entirely and regard it as the WSJ just did – nothing more than a “pet rock”. So as the bearishness builds, this is good for establishing character separating the traders from the fools who just believe propaganda and trade fundamentally. But the hate mails still come in and this warns the tree must still be shaken. When they stop, then the market will be ready to rebound but only on short-covering – not new longs. So expect no sudden news of a huge buyer to save the day. That will NEVER happen. The low is made by massive shorts just as highs are made by fools rushing in an believe the propaganda of the promoters at the top.

... [click the url to read all]

Those targets for the low in gold are in the International Precious Metals Report that warns of the final decline. We are NOT looking for the low in gold to be on October 1 either. If that materialized, it would be extremely profound. However, the more likely event will be the rush to cash completing the final Flight to Quality.

How high gold will rise from a major low depends upon the entire political landscape but more importantly, the technical projections and the Reversals generated from that low. Will we still have a free market for gold? Or will gold move entirely underground, deemed the money of “terrorists” in an attempt to hunt down business conducted off the grid?  This we will cover for the future rally in the next Special Report.

http://www.armstrongeconomics.com/archives/35582

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Government would not necessarily travel door to door to confiscate gold. They would more likely than not employ the same tactic as in the past – just outlaw transactions in gold to avoid taxes which might even include BitCoin. That would be the way they set the stage for confiscating anything that is avoiding taxation which they now call money laundering with up to 20 years in prison. This is now all about them – not you.

...

Such schemes against tax-avoidance would not be merely a target against gold alone. It would be against anything taking place in a tax-exempt atmosphere.

...

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August 03, 2015, 01:55:31 PM
 #364

What is the next major resistance line above $320?
Wait..
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August 03, 2015, 02:02:23 PM
 #365

High/Low is 680-685$





CLOSE is 320-325:





and IF we stay in the same column moving upwards (probably not gonna happen) 465$ (probably lower as we move to the right):

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August 03, 2015, 02:08:07 PM
 #366

Keep in mind everyone that CLOSE chart is still bearish...
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August 03, 2015, 02:36:39 PM
 #367

and IF we stay in the same column moving upwards (probably not gonna happen) 465$ (probably lower as we move to the right):

May I suggest we also redraw that long-term trend line from the inception of Bitcoin which was at $320 in early July, but will be at > $350 by September. Perhaps we will come back up to test that as resistance again? Could you draw it more accurately as you did last time? I don't have the necessary tools to draw it at my disposal.

Unlike gold (see my chart in my prior post), Bitcoin already broke out its down channel from the $1100 high. Thus perhaps it is only the bullish long-term trend line that serves as resistance.

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August 03, 2015, 02:39:57 PM
 #368

and IF we stay in the same column moving upwards (probably not gonna happen) 465$ (probably lower as we move to the right):

May I suggest we also redraw that long-term trend line from the inception of Bitcoin which was at $320, but will be at > $350 by September. Perhaps we will come back up to test that as resistance again? Could you draw it more accurately as you did last time? I don't have the necessary tools to draw it at my disposal.

Unlike gold, Bitcoin already broke out its down channel from the $1100 high. Thus perhaps it is only the bullish long-term trend line that serves as resistance.

I will try yes.

One good way of seeing resistances is 1d zoomed out as much as possible (depending on your screen width, in order to see as much chart as possible) and watch where the previous CLOSE tops are (green peaks but not the spikes). There you have resistance.

EDIT: So with this in mind, good resistances are 433, 654, 685, 918, 983, 1138.5
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August 03, 2015, 02:55:20 PM
 #369

Still at 320$, it is remarkable how it bounced back in this resistance!





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August 03, 2015, 03:01:08 PM
 #370

Still at 320$, it is remarkable how it bounced back in this resistance!

Eyeballing it, looks like $325 now. What will the line projection be in September?

Notice also how briefly the price move above the line by roughly $20, so that could occur again.

I am sticking with this line as the most likely strong resistance until after gold has bottomed.

I believe overall (notwithstanding a rise back up to this trend line again before the next down wave Sept or Oct) we are still in a bearish mode due to the external contagion forces. When gold bottoms in spring, then those forces will be alleviated.

Edit: it is also amazing that Bitcoin broke out of its down trend channel from $1100 peak when the price crossed this long-term bullish line.

I am now expecting the double top I referred to upthread. I think we will come back up to test this line one more time.

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August 03, 2015, 05:58:39 PM
 #371

Still at 320$, it is remarkable how it bounced back in this resistance!

Eyeballing it, looks like $325 now. What will the line projection be in September?


320 but it could spike easily 5-10$ more. At August 31st is about 330$
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August 03, 2015, 07:43:13 PM
 #372

that long term bull trend line really added some colour. Might be the line to watch now.

TPTB so you see gold stay low tilll March next year?

I'm inlcined to see it your way. Can't see bitcoin go up massively if gold is going down.

Great discussion everyone!



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August 03, 2015, 07:49:07 PM
 #373

that long term bull trend line really added some colour. Might be the line to watch now.

TPTB so you see gold stay low tilll March next year?

I'm inlcined to see it your way. Can't see bitcoin go up massively if gold is going down.

Great discussion everyone!

this is a curious thing to say

2015 tells a different story.  Orange line is XAUUSD


"I believe this will be the ultimate fate of Bitcoin, to be the "high-powered money" that serves as a reserve currency for banks that issue their own digital cash." Hal Finney, Dec. 2010
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August 03, 2015, 07:56:24 PM
 #374

that long term bull trend line really added some colour. Might be the line to watch now.

TPTB so you see gold stay low tilll March next year?

I'm inlcined to see it your way. Can't see bitcoin go up massively if gold is going down.

Great discussion everyone!

this is a curious thing to say

2015 tells a different story.  Orange line is XAUUSD


i've noticed that too. But it seems to change. At time both are correlated, at time, inversely correlated.



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August 03, 2015, 07:57:18 PM
 #375

that long term bull trend line really added some colour. Might be the line to watch now.

TPTB so you see gold stay low tilll March next year?

I'm inlcined to see it your way. Can't see bitcoin go up massively if gold is going down.

Great discussion everyone!

this is a curious thing to say

2015 tells a different story.  Orange line is XAUUSD


What you want to say brg ?

Quote from:  Satoshi Nakamoto
Feb. 14, 2010: I’m sure that in 20 years there will either be very large transaction volume or no volume.
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August 03, 2015, 08:10:21 PM
 #376

that long term bull trend line really added some colour. Might be the line to watch now.

TPTB so you see gold stay low tilll March next year?

I'm inlcined to see it your way. Can't see bitcoin go up massively if gold is going down.

Great discussion everyone!

this is a curious thing to say

2015 tells a different story.  Orange line is XAUUSD


What you want to say brg ?

He is saying that the two are now inversely correlated.
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August 03, 2015, 08:24:30 PM
 #377

i've noticed that too. But it seems to change. At time both are correlated, at time, inversely correlated.

He is saying that the two are now inversely correlated.

The chart showed they are highly correlated. It showed their prices always return to agreement. Short-term opposite moves are negated and they move back into sync in their mutual downtrend.

And gold is going to < $700 by end of Q1 2016.

One more trip for BTC up to $330 - $340ish, then down we go.

kLee apologies. My last post here for a while.

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August 03, 2015, 08:27:11 PM
 #378

No worries, post as you like...
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August 03, 2015, 09:54:22 PM
 #379

i've noticed that too. But it seems to change. At time both are correlated, at time, inversely correlated.

He is saying that the two are now inversely correlated.

The chart showed they are highly correlated. It showed their prices always return to agreement. Short-term opposite moves are negated and they move back into sync in their mutual downtrend.


Exactly!

They are certainly correlated and a dip down for gold should bring btc along for the ride. Eventually though btc should break lose and head its own show since golds role is fading more and more. Of course this could take years. There is also the possibility of btc failing and that would also break the correlation. But for now pretty much in sync with each others moves.

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August 03, 2015, 11:29:58 PM
 #380

if DXY heads to 120 which I think it can, while destroying other currencies in emerging markets I just see BTC rising or steady

Gold just looks like a shiny rock now, and with diamonds at 5 year low the Mrs. Might be getting some new bling.
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