So.. many weeks have gone by since
Venus Ventures' last,
most terribly irresponsible & stupid encounter w/
Lady Luck's giant evil dildo of Martinfail demolition..
..& I've managed to put together a puny little bankroll to begin a slow recovery, ponderous, but promising if diligently pursued, using mostly
x3, x4, ~x4.68, x5 & x5.5 payouts, in semi-martingale betting (restricted, avoided as much as possible, & stop-loss-capped at ~
8-11x of the
base bet amount - which is a variable from ~
0.085% to 0.5% of available MP bankroll).
When seeing lots of very low or very high % rolls, I'll at times begin
chasing a
'copy' of said result but w/ a generous x1.5 to x2.0 'margin' for it to be loosely
'copied' into, at the opposite, or at the very same end of the rolls spectrum (e.g., I'll see a 2.28 roll, this would certainly mean, according to this theory, that another 97.5-99.99, or 0.01-2.50, would be coming soon - However, by modifying this 'expectation' w/ a x1.5 or x2.0
'margin', we end up & begin rolling for ~x20 to ~x27 payouts, yielding win odds of >95-100% / >96.07-100%, or <0.0-5.0% / 0.0-3.93%) ; Which tends to depend on exactly how the pseudo-random algorithm recently distributed rolls in recent games results, with a given seed #.
Occasionally, when seeing large (> 4-5) streaks of 0-49% or 51-100% rolls, I'll try a few x2 bets, keeping a loose hand on the 'Martingale +100% bet size on loss' rule, & a very tight resolve on the 'stop-loss & give up' rule as soon as things get too streaky, because it
will happen.
You never know just how far a streak can go, and the best way to lose all is to tell yourself
"Ok this is it, there is no way this could possibly do another roll that low / that high again, right..!??!?!" There are fundamental math reason why this so often leads to doom - [1] Statistically, at
some point, there
has to be some giant ridiculous streak one way or another, as that is how pseudo-random distribution will arrange itself. You can actually
expect it coming (but just not be able to realistically bet on it). [2] To win on average, you must ensure a
reward greater than your
risk taken. When martingale'ing to the ends of the earth, on huge streaks, you begin to take risks that, in relation to your bankroll/net worth at least, are far higher than the potential reward.
THAT, is why, before everything else, infinite or large-streak martingale'ing is a losing proposition, of the highest order.
What most of my sessions look like :
The #1 key, as is always the case with every single 'wealth growth' endeavor, whether investing, trading, or gambling, is really to accept that moderate losses cannot be put off forever - they WILL come, and to be able to accept & move on forward, w/ slow, limited-risk, normal size recovery when they do happen -
NOT try to fight, delay, or
chase losses as that is like saying
"I deserve to defeat the mathematical forces of the Universe and therefore will benefit from parabolic bankroll growth infinitely, or at least for an extremely long time, without a single significant pullback" which, invariably, of course will get you rectally reconfigured in ways you never even imagined were possible ;/
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I must use this opportunity to congratulate Bjorn once again for maintaining, even in the face of frustratingly dwindling volume, all the promotions, giveaways & cashback rewards BBets is famous for, & will offer the following rationale as to why players stick to ancient, established places like PRC, JD & PD vs. new, more advantageous gambling spots like BB :
Human psychology is risk-averse, and lazy. Thus, people tend to stick to what they're familiar with ; that's how we have the 'breaking out of comfort zones' expression. Old sites make sure to even reinforce this behavior, by implementing loyalty/veteran features such as Account Levels for PD, etc. Also, the very same 'stuck-to-what-they've-always-known' bias applies to what internet users are even
aware/informed about - Most of them simply don't even know about MP, let alone BetterBets. I've never once seen an ad for either on faucet banners & SolveMedia captcha's, which understandably, don't come too cheap.
