What do you expect from the halving in 2016?

[Brewins]

Double prices at least after the pump stabilization, if we are luck.

If not, then see what happened to Doge to see what may happen with BTC

[gentlemand]

I would hazard to guess that market players in 2012 were far more conscious of the underlying tech than they are now and the upcoming halving will have less of an impact.

Your average bot or Chinese dumper really doesn't give much of a shit. They're there to milk it for USD/CNY day in day out.

[dothebeats]

Double prices at least after the pump stabilization, if we are luck.

If not, then see what happened to Doge to see what may happen with BTC

Doge was manipulated from the start of the price rise. I don't think it is correct to relate it to what may happen in btc. Bitcoin markets are full of traders and shorters and not wolongs who hold and manipulate. Doge is a different market, though.

[odolvlobo]

traders are dumping and buying 100k per day? can you point me the source of this? i don't really care about the demand and supply but only the supply so i can compare better the reduction in the "mining supply"

if it's indeeded 100k per day than ok 1800 is nothing to that lower than 2% and will cause a 4% up in demand like you said

You're looking at it the wrong way, I think. It doesn't matter how many coins are flipped by traders each day. What matters is the net demand and net supply.

I agree, but there is no way to measure that.

Furthermore, supply and demand are not numbers. They are curves. The price is at the intersection of the curves. The reduction of mined bitcoins will shift the supply curve, but without knowing what the curves look like, there is no way to determine what effect that shift will have.

There are different ways of estimating the effect of the change in supply.

If you assume that demand is constant over time (which is not realistic, of course), then a good estimate of the effect of inflation is simply to reduce the price by about the amount of the inflation. So, in this case at the time of the halving, the price would change from dropping by 8% per year to dropping by 4% per year.

Another way is to look at the change in volume over the entire exchange volume. This comparison itself overestimates the effect because people exchange bitcoins for other things of value, not just currency.

People are also treating the halving as a supply shock, when it isn't. While rate of increase in the money supply changes suddenly from 3600 BTC per day to 1800 BTC per day, the relative change in the money supply itself is quite small.

[molecular]

I would hazard to guess that market players in 2012 were far more conscious of the underlying tech than they are now and the upcoming halving will have less of an impact.

why would it have less of an impact if people are less conscious about it? If anything it would have more of an impact, because the halving is something real that will have an effect wether people are aware of it or not. People 'back in 2012' would've (if they were more conscious of the halving and its effects) priced it in earlier, too.

Your average bot or Chinese dumper really doesn't give much of a shit. They're there to milk it for USD/CNY day in day out.

Exactly, so he will be forced to dump a higher percentage of his coins (or stop mining, depending on his efficiency and the bitcoin price) because his mining reward is cut in half. In aggragate, miners will dump less coins.

It's not about perception in this case.

[molecular]

traders are dumping and buying 100k per day? can you point me the source of this? i don't really care about the demand and supply but only the supply so i can compare better the reduction in the "mining supply"

if it's indeeded 100k per day than ok 1800 is nothing to that lower than 2% and will cause a 4% up in demand like you said

You're looking at it the wrong way, I think. It doesn't matter how many coins are flipped by traders each day. What matters is the net demand and net supply.

I agree, but there is no way to measure that.

Furthermore, supply and demand are not numbers. They are curves. The price is at the intersection of the curves. The reduction of mined bitcoins will shift the supply curve, but without knowing what the curves look like, there is no way to determine what effect that shift will have.

There are different ways of estimating the effect of the change in supply.

If you assume that demand is constant over time (which is not realistic, of course), then a good estimate of the effect of inflation is simply to reduce the price by about the amount of the inflation. So, in this case at the time of the halving, the price would change from dropping by 8% per year to dropping by 4% per year.

Another way is to look at the change in volume over the entire exchange volume. This comparison itself overestimates the effect because people exchange bitcoins for other things of value, not just currency.

People are also treating the halving as a supply shock, when it isn't. While rate of increase in the money supply changes suddenly from 3600 BTC per day to 1800 BTC per day, the relative change in the money supply itself is quite small.

Thanks for these comments. They are valuable.

We have to be careful when talking about "supply" in this context. It can mean 2 things:

• the money supply (14 million BTC and adding 3600 / day)
• the mining production output (amount of 'commodity' the producers are willing to provide to the market)

In the second meaning, the categorization of the halving as a 'supply shock' is correct.

[sgbett]

Since the halving is a known future event, it should already be priced into the current price.

Miners are presumably planning in advance for the halving.  Right now, nobody should be buying hardware that won't make money after the halving.  A lot of older hardware will be shut down as no longer cost-effective.

The profitability of mining is a function of block reward and price. Although people know the block reward is halving they still don't know what the price will be, so how can the market price it in now?

[odolvlobo]

We have to be careful when talking about "supply" in this context. It can mean 2 things:

• the money supply (14 million BTC and adding 3600 / day)
• the mining production output (amount of 'commodity' the producers are willing to provide to the market)

In the second meaning, the categorization of the halving as a 'supply shock' is correct.

A "supply shock" is a sudden shift in the supply curve. Technically, tere is a supply shock every ten minutes when 25 bitcoins are added to the money supply. You could also say there is a daily supply shock relating to the addition of 3600 BTC. It depends on the time scale.

The halving is not a supply shock. It is a reduction in the severity of the ongoing supply shocks.

[Amph]

traders are dumping and buying 100k per day? can you point me the source of this? i don't really care about the demand and supply but only the supply so i can compare better the reduction in the "mining supply"

if it's indeeded 100k per day than ok 1800 is nothing to that lower than 2% and will cause a 4% up in demand like you said

You're looking at it the wrong way, I think. It doesn't matter how many coins are flipped by traders each day. What matters is the net demand and net supply.

in fact i was talking about net demand and supply but to have an estimate about that you need to know how much coin are dumped and pumped each day

[Denker]

I believe we will see a slight increase after the halving. Might it be because it will be priced in before or that after a pump a big portion of holders will take some profits in fiat and this will result in a smaller increase.
My wish of course would be that rocket goes moon and we are all on board. 

[Brewins]

Since the halving is a known future event, it should already be priced into the current price.

Miners are presumably planning in advance for the halving.  Right now, nobody should be buying hardware that won't make money after the halving.  A lot of older hardware will be shut down as no longer cost-effective.

The profitability of mining is a function of block reward and price. Although people know the block reward is halving they still don't know what the price will be, so how can the market price it in now?

How can the market price less BTC dumped by miners before if happen

[QuestionAuthority]

If the price doubles just before the reward drop then possibly nothing happens. The miners will effectively have the same revenue they have today and can continue to happily mine away. If the price does not go to $600 or above then we can expect to see a bunch of people stop mining as their mining costs will remain the same but their revenue will be cut in half.

[notlist3d]

If the price doubles just before the reward drop then possibly nothing happens. The miners will effectively have the same revenue they have today and can continue to happily mine away. If the price does not go to $600 or above then we can expect to see a bunch of people stop mining as their mining costs will remain the same but their revenue will be cut in half.

I think price doubling is a little much to ask at first.  I think there will be a slow move upwards.   Most likely before halving.

But just cut in half rewards it's to much wishful thinking for it to double once it hits.   I think it will be hard to be a miner at first of it.  Mining I predict comes back during it but there will be a point a lot of hobby miners have to stop for a bit.

[mrhelpful]

traders are dumping and buying 100k per day? can you point me the source of this? i don't really care about the demand and supply but only the supply so i can compare better the reduction in the "mining supply"

if it's indeeded 100k per day than ok 1800 is nothing to that lower than 2% and will cause a 4% up in demand like you said

You're looking at it the wrong way, I think. It doesn't matter how many coins are flipped by traders each day. What matters is the net demand and net supply.

If we are talking about demand and supply.

Wheres the new volume of demand going to come from? geminis new exchange when it launches? its a shame i ask about bitcoin and my friends still give me a blank stare.

[inca]

traders are dumping and buying 100k per day? can you point me the source of this? i don't really care about the demand and supply but only the supply so i can compare better the reduction in the "mining supply"

if it's indeeded 100k per day than ok 1800 is nothing to that lower than 2% and will cause a 4% up in demand like you said

You're looking at it the wrong way, I think. It doesn't matter how many coins are flipped by traders each day. What matters is the net demand and net supply.

If we are talking about demand and supply.

Wheres the new volume of demand going to come from? geminis new exchange when it launches? its a shame i ask about bitcoin and my friends still give me a blank stare.

Where did it come from last time? Adoption waves leading to an imbalance in supply and demand that coupled with the hype cycle as the price starts rising, a new bubble.

This time bitcoin will be easily accessible via coinbase, circle, dozens of exchanges globally, ETN's, and soon hopefully etf's.

Bitcoin doesn't really have to do very much except stay in this trading range as the halving approaches and it will do it's thing.

[Shiver]

To me, although the logical thing would be a significant price rise (not a doubling, just the proportion of new coin scarcity plus a few other variables), because the halving effect is widely anticipated, it wouldn't surprise me if it took a dip, then just when everyone leaves the stadium, it then find its new upward movement.

[randy8777]

I expect exaggerated expectations.

Zoom out!

I expect a 10x price increase. It might start a couple months before and take a long time after having day to play out fully (like last time it took half a year or so). Right after having day itself I wouldn't be surprised to see a sizable dip even.

a 10x increase from current price? nah, surely not. i expect such predictions to come from newbies and other people who are not realistic. definitely not from a member as you.

It's not that bad to dream about unicorns every now and then, but hey! Maybe it would happen in the future, but next halving it will be highly unlikely. I expect just a 100% - 200% at most price rise if you would ask me. That is already a realistic guesstimate by me.

100% indeed isn't unrealistic, although i think that already is a bit on the high side. 50% less supply doesn't mean a 100% price increase, but of course we hope so.

[tyz]

if demand stays the same or even increases then this assumption holds for halving 

I expect exaggerated expectations.

Zoom out!

I expect a 10x price increase. It might start a couple months before and take a long time after having day to play out fully (like last time it took half a year or so). Right after having day itself I wouldn't be surprised to see a sizable dip even.

a 10x increase from current price? nah, surely not. i expect such predictions to come from newbies and other people who are not realistic. definitely not from a member as you.

It's not that bad to dream about unicorns every now and then, but hey! Maybe it would happen in the future, but next halving it will be highly unlikely. I expect just a 100% - 200% at most price rise if you would ask me. That is already a realistic guesstimate by me.

100% indeed isn't unrealistic, although i think that already is a bit on the high side. 50% less supply doesn't mean a 100% price increase, but of course we hope so.

[Hfertig]

My theorie:
As everyone knows about the halving, I believe the price will drop. In anticiption of the upcoming halving people will max out their holdings in hope for a rally. When the rally does not materialize people will dump their coins and will drive the price south.

[newIndia]

My theorie:
As everyone knows about the halving, I believe the price will drop. In anticiption of the upcoming halving people will max out their holdings in hope for a rally. When the rally does not materialize people will dump their coins and will drive the price south.

This is what I expect as well. Whenever, there has been a predicted event of price rise in bitcoin, it has gone down instead. I'm expecting the same this time as well. Block halving sell pressure may take the price below 100.