June 28th to July 12th Difficulty thread. Picks are closed!!

[philipma1957]

title is corrected. Lboss was the last to pick.


coins are at 262 usd.


https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty



this jump  brings us over  50 bill (+2.31%)

Adjust time:   After 940 Blocks, About 6.3 days

[philipma1957]

Okay coinbase has a big push in price 275 usd.

Now I found this on Greek vote.


https://uk.news.yahoo.com/early-results-show-clear-lead-no-vote-greece-180531714.html#odXNMqV


59% no to 41% yes with 10% of the vote.

I have to think  the no vote will


A: Cause a big run to BTC for Greeks in the know.
B: 300 usd plus for BTC
C: A solid  diff increase if you get up and over 300usd and stay up and over.

I can see 5% for 2 diffs in a row if we stay in the 320 to 350 price range.

[valkir]

+ 2.31% is perfect 

Im wondering if Greeks cant withdraw all cash from atm how could they buy Bitcoin ?
Can they use the online system ? I guess the banks also take down the online stuff, no ??

[philipma1957]

+ 2.31% is perfect  

Im wondering if Greeks cant withdraw all cash from atm how could they buy Bitcoin ?
Can they use the online system ? I guess the banks also take down the online stuff, no ??

Funny you should ask.  I used to live in New York City.  I was born in Queens and when my wife and I got married we lived in Astoria Queens for 6 years then moved to  New Jersey near the shore.

Astoria Queens has thousands of Greeks both resident Aliens and USA citizens.  I know a few people even though I have not lived there in 20+ years.  I am sure plenty of BTC is being purchased in Astoria and then sent to Greece as I type. At this point the vote is 60-40 no so you can be sure they will need some kind of money remember Greece has ties to Cypress so I am sure plenty of them remember BTC helping smart ones in Cypress.

This Greek crisis is an example of  the single biggest reason I like BTC.   It can help you if the place you live in fucks up with money.

[philipma1957]

[]

http://btc.blockr.io/charts

6-28-2015  145 blocks 144 is normal   but we were partial for sunday.

so  about 108 made  109 norm so >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>  -1

6-29-2015  132 blocks 144 is normal >>>>>>>>>>>>>>   -12    

6-30-2015  146 blocks  144 is normal >>>>>>>>>>>>>  +2
 
7- 1-2015   139 blocks  144 is normal >>>>>>>>>>>>>   -5

7-2-2015    153 blocks  144 is normal >>>>>>>>>>>>> +8
 
7-3-2015    158  blocks 144 is normal >>>>>>>>>>>>> +14

7-4-2015    154 blocks 144 is normal >>>>>>>>>>>>>  +10

7-5-2015     146 blocks 144 is normal>>>>>>>>>>>>> + 2

total >>>  1136  made  normal 1120

 this is (+1.24%

more then HALF WAY there

 




https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty

(+2.71%)  too high as real number is +1.24%


BTC/USD: 262------- was up to 278

Adjust time:   After 865 Blocks, About 5.8 days left.



BTC dropped so the Greek scare may be over.

[alh]

I think all of us that are in for a difficulty decrease will be way off base:

Bitcoin Difficulty:    49,402,014,931
Estimated Next Difficulty:    51,269,553,292 (+3.78%)
Adjust time:    After 821 Blocks, About 5.4 days
Hashrate(?):    387,668,486 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):    
1 block: 9.5 minutes
3 blocks: 28.6 minutes
6 blocks: 57.1 minutes
   
Updated:    3:0 (4.5 minutes ago)

BTC Price: $268 Usd

[philipma1957]

I think all of us that are in for a difficulty decrease will be way off base:

Bitcoin Difficulty:    49,402,014,931
Estimated Next Difficulty:    51,269,553,292 (+3.78%)
Adjust time:    After 821 Blocks, About 5.4 days
Hashrate(?):    387,668,486 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):    
1 block: 9.5 minutes
3 blocks: 28.6 minutes
6 blocks: 57.1 minutes
   
Updated:    3:0 (4.5 minutes ago)

BTC Price: $268 Usd

 


https://blockchain.info/blocks


364082  - 08:39
364007  - 00:01

we made 76 blocks in 8 hours and 40 minutes the norm is 52  this is a 210 block daily pace!
I don't think we are going to have a 210 block day

[jonnybravo0311]

The Greek scare is definitely not over... Japanese and US markets opened way off.  DOW was down over 150.  BTC is around $275.  Bitmain just jacked UP the price of an S5 (totally irrelevant, but thought I'd throw that little tidbit in here ).

[philipma1957]

The Greek scare is definitely not over... Japanese and US markets opened way off.  DOW was down over 150.  BTC is around $275.  Bitmain just jacked UP the price of an S5 (totally irrelevant, but thought I'd throw that little tidbit in here ).

yep and the pace for today has dropped from 210 to 200 block day.

still huge.  200 blocks or 210 blocks  are both over  40%  jump.  I have been tracking daily for about a year IIRC 185 has been the biggest daily number.


 My opinion is older gear has been turned back on and a lot of farms are hoping the Greek collapse will be just what is needed  to drive coin price into the 325-350 range.

[valkir]

210 block is crazy! 

I remember a month or 2 ago I read a article about gear that will turn in when price go up.
In the article they name this effect. Will try to find it back. It was really interesting and show that the actual hashrate will go up if the price go up.

[HerbPean]

Looks like the BTC price will push up the Diff now.

looks like 3-4%

[philipma1957]

210 block is crazy!  

I remember a month or 2 ago I read a article about gear that will turn in when price go up.
In the article they name this effect. Will try to find it back. It was really interesting and show that the actual hashrate will go up if the price go up.

My hope is a lot of expensive gear was turned back on  by people hoping price jumps a lot.

If this is a shit ton of new gear  it is really more then I thought possible.

Of course variance is possible the time period I used to calculate 210 blocks is small.  The next calculation dropped it to 200 blocks.

https://blockchain.info/blocks

So far we made 128 blocks today in  16 hours and 10 minutes

we should be at 97  so   128/97 =  1.31958    and 1.32 x 144 =  190 blocks


so part of that 210 then 200 then 190 projection for today is variance .     But for now it looks like we will move up this adjustment.

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty


Bitcoin Difficulty:   49,402,014,931
Estimated Next Difficulty:   51,546,827,261 (+4.34%)----- coinbase price is 272 usd
Adjust time:   After 762 Blocks, About 5.0 days
Hashrate(?):   383,826,753 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 9.4 minutes
3 blocks: 28.4 minutes
6 blocks: 56.7 minutes
Updated:   12:20 (1.2 minutes ago)

[jonnybravo0311]

I'm certainly hoping it's not a bunch of miners firing back up old gear just to mine and dump.  I'm also hoping that it's not a new 20PH farm that's come online either... in any case, though, certainly looks like we're in for a positive adjustment.  Hopefully this is just some variance spiking and it'll come back down

[philipma1957]

I'm certainly hoping it's not a bunch of miners firing back up old gear just to mine and dump.  I'm also hoping that it's not a new 20PH farm that's come online either... in any case, though, certainly looks like we're in for a positive adjustment.  Hopefully this is just some variance spiking and it'll come back down

I suspect some big farms  keep some marginal gear on hand just for an occasion like this.  Price spike of 10% flip a switch and turn on 1ph of s-3's

[alh]

Looking at a longer time horizon, difficulty has increased by roughly 21% during the 1st half of 2015. In the last half of 2014, the difficulty increase was roughly 140%, with about 20% in the last 3 months of 2014. Clearly the rate of increase has been slowing since Mid 2014. So while difficulty has increased, and will likely continue to do so through 2015, it's decelerating.

A small bright spot.

[Mikestang]

I'm certainly hoping it's not a bunch of miners firing back up old gear just to mine and dump.  I'm also hoping that it's not a new 20PH farm that's come online either... in any case, though, certainly looks like we're in for a positive adjustment.  Hopefully this is just some variance spiking and it'll come back down

I suspect some big farms  keep some marginal gear on hand just for an occasion like this.  Price spike of 10% flip a switch and turn on 1ph of s-3's

Do you?  I was thinking something like that, but then I had to think of the space that would take up, the effort to maintain all the hardware that you rarely use, etc. etc. and I just don't see it as a very profitable or workable theory.  If a farm has the rack space then they're probably using it for gear that's running.  Marginal gear does not get left sitting around, hooked up and ready to go.  It gets removed from the farm to make room for more gear!

I think the profit margin dictates this behavior and the corners farms cut to maintain a profit lead me to think that the scenario of keeping marginal gear around and connected to network and power to only be used on rare occasions just doesn't make accounting sense.

[philipma1957]

I'm certainly hoping it's not a bunch of miners firing back up old gear just to mine and dump.  I'm also hoping that it's not a new 20PH farm that's come online either... in any case, though, certainly looks like we're in for a positive adjustment.  Hopefully this is just some variance spiking and it'll come back down

I suspect some big farms  keep some marginal gear on hand just for an occasion like this.  Price spike of 10% flip a switch and turn on 1ph of s-3's

Do you?  I was thinking something like that, but then I had to think of the space that would take up, the effort to maintain all the hardware that you rarely use, etc. etc. and I just don't see it as a very profitable or workable theory.  If a farm has the rack space then they're probably using it for gear that's running.  Marginal gear does not get left sitting around, hooked up and ready to go.  It gets removed from the farm to make room for more gear!

I think the profit margin dictates this behavior and the corners farms cut to maintain a profit lead me to think that the scenario of keeping marginal gear around and connected to network and power to only be used on rare occasions just doesn't make accounting sense.

it does  if your are selling off s-5's and replacing with s-7's.  Then have the s-5's  go back to mining while still having them listed for sale.

I should have been more clear.  oh 176 blocks made today with 40 minutes to go.

https://blockchain.info/blocks

Later today I will map out what I said a little more clearly

[Jamphone]

I'm certainly hoping it's not a bunch of miners firing back up old gear just to mine and dump.  I'm also hoping that it's not a new 20PH farm that's come online either... in any case, though, certainly looks like we're in for a positive adjustment.  Hopefully this is just some variance spiking and it'll come back down

I suspect some big farms  keep some marginal gear on hand just for an occasion like this.  Price spike of 10% flip a switch and turn on 1ph of s-3's

Do you?  I was thinking something like that, but then I had to think of the space that would take up, the effort to maintain all the hardware that you rarely use, etc. etc. and I just don't see it as a very profitable or workable theory.  If a farm has the rack space then they're probably using it for gear that's running.  Marginal gear does not get left sitting around, hooked up and ready to go.  It gets removed from the farm to make room for more gear!

I think the profit margin dictates this behavior and the corners farms cut to maintain a profit lead me to think that the scenario of keeping marginal gear around and connected to network and power to only be used on rare occasions just doesn't make accounting sense.

it does  if your are selling off s-5's and replacing with s-7's.  Then have the s-5's  go back to mining while still having them listed for sale.

I should have been more clear.  oh 176 blocks made today with 40 minutes to go.

https://blockchain.info/blocks

Later today I will map out what I said a little more clearly

While your math makes sense, I can tell you that no one is doing this. No large farm has that kind of space available. All the majors are constantly looking to fill any spare space, and they'll pay more than your old gear will make you. Go ahead, get a MW set up and ready to fill and cool. And then wait for the price. You don't: you fill it with someone willing to pay. Simple business. No one is sitting on MWs of capacity. I would guess that "spare" capacity is less than 5 MW through the entire network of space that has low enough costs to be competitive.

[philipma1957]

I'm certainly hoping it's not a bunch of miners firing back up old gear just to mine and dump.  I'm also hoping that it's not a new 20PH farm that's come online either... in any case, though, certainly looks like we're in for a positive adjustment.  Hopefully this is just some variance spiking and it'll come back down

I suspect some big farms  keep some marginal gear on hand just for an occasion like this.  Price spike of 10% flip a switch and turn on 1ph of s-3's

Do you?  I was thinking something like that, but then I had to think of the space that would take up, the effort to maintain all the hardware that you rarely use, etc. etc. and I just don't see it as a very profitable or workable theory.  If a farm has the rack space then they're probably using it for gear that's running.  Marginal gear does not get left sitting around, hooked up and ready to go.  It gets removed from the farm to make room for more gear!

I think the profit margin dictates this behavior and the corners farms cut to maintain a profit lead me to think that the scenario of keeping marginal gear around and connected to network and power to only be used on rare occasions just doesn't make accounting sense.

it does  if your are selling off s-5's and replacing with s-7's.  Then have the s-5's  go back to mining while still having them listed for sale.

I should have been more clear.  oh 176 blocks made today with 40 minutes to go.

https://blockchain.info/blocks

Later today I will map out what I said a little more clearly

While your math makes sense, I can tell you that no one is doing this. No large farm has that kind of space available. All the majors are constantly looking to fill any spare space, and they'll pay more than your old gear will make you. Go ahead, get a MW set up and ready to fill and cool. And then wait for the price. You don't: you fill it with someone willing to pay. Simple business. No one is sitting on MWs of capacity. I would guess that "spare" capacity is less than 5 MW through the entire network of space that has low enough costs to be competitive.

disagree but my  example takes into account a lot more info then yours. It hinges on my belief that asics builders have tried to keep diff lower in order to avoid an arms race.
No matter what anyone says diff has been checked since last fall  here are the numbers:

Difficulty History

Date   Difficulty   Change   Hash Rate
Jun 28 2015   49,402,014,931   -0.58%   353,633,397 GH/s
Jun 14 2015   49,692,386,355   4.42%   355,711,957 GH/s
May 31 2015   47,589,591,154   -2.50%   340,659,563 GH/s
May 17 2015   48,807,487,245   2.44%   349,377,603 GH/s
May 03 2015   47,643,398,018   0.07%   341,044,727 GH/s
Apr 19 2015   47,610,564,513   -3.71%   340,809,696 GH/s
Apr 05 2015   49,446,390,688   5.84%   353,951,052 GH/s
Mar 22 2015   46,717,549,645   -1.50%   334,417,246 GH/s
Mar 08 2015   47,427,554,951   1.59%   339,499,662 GH/s
Feb 22 2015   46,684,376,317   5.01%   334,179,783 GH/s
Feb 09 2015   44,455,415,962   7.71%   318,224,263 GH/s
Jan 27 2015   41,272,873,895   -6.14%   295,442,739 GH/s
Jan 12 2015   43,971,662,056   8.20%   314,761,417 GH/s
Dec 30 2014   40,640,955,017   3.00%   290,919,288 GH/s
Dec 17 2014   39,457,671,307   -1.37%   282,449,013 GH/s
Dec 02 2014   40,007,470,271   -0.73%   286,384,627 GH/s
Nov 18 2014   40,300,030,328   1.76%   288,478,854 GH/s

So in the fall I am Bitmaintech I swapped out my s-3's for s-5's



 Now in the spring summer I swapped out my s-5's for s-7's

I don't try to grow like mad I grow a little and I lowered power bills with better gear.

If I fully swapped out from s-3's to s-5'  to s-7's the network would have grown faster.
Same goes for the other companies.

If companies fully swapped and kept all places maxxed  the hash rate would be better. more like 400 or 425ph.

[Jamphone]

I appreciate that "you took into account a lot more info" then I but take my word that I'm well positioned in the industry and not a home or hobby miner as you are.

There is very little spare hosting capacity out there. No one (other than home miners who are less than 1% of the network) was sitting on machines through February and March. If you weren't profitable then, but are now, you're going to be under water again in 8, maybe 12, weeks, so that is dumb strategy. (ie. a 20% price rise makes you profitable again, so once difficulty catches up with price, very soon, you will be under again. Furthermore, your "carrying costs" of the data centre, like your mortgage/rent/insurance, will ensure this strategy yields less profit as you paid that money while waiting for the price to rise. Furthermore, these 8 to 12 weeks of "back in business" are going to be barely profitable, if at all.)

And from what we all know, chances of those machines being "back in profit" ever again, after surviving retirement once? Little to none.

If my mine was 20% away from being "underwater" I'd be sweating. Not going "Gee, I'm going to plug all this back in when the price goes up". Running a large operation is expensive. As I said, mortgage, rent, insurance, internet, security, employees (you can't just fire everyone and expect them to come back after 6 weeks of unemployment).

Rather than mothball your facility, if you were giving up you'd probably strip it of the electrical (resale on transformers, panels and HVAC is good) and sell the building and land.

Now - your argument is not without merit. If we saw, say, bitcoin return to $500 in the near future. Then yes, everyones going to be opening a mine everywhere, and you will see stored equipment come online. But not at $270. Not enough incentive.

Edit: Also, on your last point about majors maxing out their capacity. Believe me, they're trying. Between fires, equipment failures, bankruptcies, etc. this hasn't been an easy road for most of them. KNC's mine appears to be under water. Bitfury (who are doing fine now) had to shutter a mine in Finland over the winter. We see all of them needing equity investments. If you are making good money, you get debt, not equity. Equity is for companies that need to expand in order to survive.