21 millions bitcoiners

[gentlemand]

Anyway, this is the real slot machine of the future: will altcoins survive? How many of them?
I think maybe 3 or 4 will survive, for a period and, unless Bitcoin is destroyed for some reason we can't imagine yet, other crypto will disappear in the end.

They'll be like cockroaches. Nothing will kill them off and there'll always be a tiny hard core bleating at each other on here or elsewhere about how they're about to turn the corner.

Alts that fill specific purposes may thrive in a quiet way or just be eaten by a layer on top of BTC.

Alts offer the same pointlessness as BTC appears to the wider public now. Why would I use my BTC to buy LTC to buy something? Less people will accept it and there's another layer of volatility on top.

[manselr]

I think there are a few legitimate coins that serve a purpose and deserve a big marketcap.
XMR for the extra anonymity for the lack of a better solution for the anonymity problem with Bitcoin right now.
Storj for the decentralized storage features.
Maidsafe for the decentralized internet (really ambitious project).
Ethereum is maybe way too ambitious actually, and may fail because of that, but I guess is worth looking at as well.

[LiteCoinGuy]

I think there are a few legitimate coins that serve a purpose and deserve a big marketcap.

Litecoin has the second biggest blockchain out there. that has some value too. it will not win against btc, but to be no.2 is not bad.

[okae]

I think there are a few legitimate coins that serve a purpose and deserve a big marketcap.
XMR for the extra anonymity for the lack of a better solution for the anonymity problem with Bitcoin right now.
Storj for the decentralized storage features.
Maidsafe for the decentralized internet (really ambitious project).
Ethereum is maybe way too ambitious actually, and may fail because of that, but I guess is worth looking at as well.

yep and a lot more that will come for sure.

btw about the main question, just omagine if only mmm arrounda 10-15% of the world population start to use it, can you imagine that?

My wild guess is: 160000 $.

if this happend 160000 $ will be to low

[GODLIKE]

btw about the main question, just omagine if only mmm arrounda 10-15% of the world population start to use it, can you imagine that?

It's not IF, but WHEN.
And when that'll happen, Bitcoin trustees will have to add a couple of decimals after the dot.

But 10% of world population is not 21 million, it's 750 millions.

[Dire]

So, I have to ask... does anyone know the ballpark figure of how many regular Bitcoin users there are now?  It's not even close to how many wallets there are, so what number are we looking at?

[Amph]

So, I have to ask... does anyone know the ballpark figure of how many regular Bitcoin users there are now?  It's not even close to how many wallets there are, so what number are we looking at?

the last estimate was talking about 3M or 3.5M users base for bitcoin, i don't know how reliable it is but it should not be so far away from reality

if you consider 4B with an users base of 4M , with an users base of 4B we can have 4T in market cap, if we follow a simple linearity

[GODLIKE]

So, I have to ask... does anyone know the ballpark figure of how many regular Bitcoin users there are now?  It's not even close to how many wallets there are, so what number are we looking at?

Nobody knows that, only estimates can be taken.

Found this article stating 1.3 million users: https://www.cryptocoinsnews.com/bitcoin-users-approach-5-million-mark-2019-juniper-research-reports/

But I suspect is far below that number.
I'd say we are around 700000-900000 holding more than 0.2 BTC of value.

[foxbitcoin]

What will be the value of one Bitcoin when the number of users (people that will want to use Bitcoin) will hit 21 millions?

At this point, if each user wanted to have 1 Bitcoin, will have to pay a certain number of $ or € or Y, whatever. I'm going with $ just because it's the most used around the world.

How many $ do you think that person, the n. 21 millionth, who wants to buy 1 BTC will have to pay to obtain it?

My wild guess is: 160000 $.

A lot more than we thing probably. Always take into account there are way less coins available than 21 million, a ton of them are lost forever, and a lot more aren't even mined yet, so if that threshold is surpassed the price goes higher. I cant honestly give you an exact number. I like the Xapo's CEO prediction: between 500.000 and 1 MM dollars.

Even if we reach 1 Million in 10 years or more, how many of us, do you guys think, will be tempted to cash out at 5.000 Dollars? 20.000 Dollars? 100.000 Dollars? Because we'll never be sure if it hasn't been the peak.

[oblivi]

What will be the value of one Bitcoin when the number of users (people that will want to use Bitcoin) will hit 21 millions?

At this point, if each user wanted to have 1 Bitcoin, will have to pay a certain number of $ or € or Y, whatever. I'm going with $ just because it's the most used around the world.

How many $ do you think that person, the n. 21 millionth, who wants to buy 1 BTC will have to pay to obtain it?

My wild guess is: 160000 $.

A lot more than we thing probably. Always take into account there are way less coins available than 21 million, a ton of them are lost forever, and a lot more aren't even mined yet, so if that threshold is surpassed the price goes higher. I cant honestly give you an exact number. I like the Xapo's CEO prediction: between 500.000 and 1 MM dollars.

Not to forget Satoshi's coins, which I think will never be used.
21 million users is not too outrageous. It is just 2% of facebook's active users.
I would say $10k will be breached when this happens.

Once you are aware that Bitcoin exists something enters your mind: You are on a never ending battle to obtain at least 1 full BTC. I think every single person that is supportive of BTC owns or is on a mission to obtain at least one.
If 21 million have that mindset, the price would explode.

[futureofbitcoin]

if 21 million users meant a BTC value of 160,000, that would imply that the average btc owner has 160k in bitcoins.

Is that realistic? I don't think so. What's a more realistic number? Probably somewhere around 1,000-2,000. So that's what the price will stabilize at, assuming the number of users stay at 21 million long enough for stabilization, but not so long that bitcoin stagnates and becomes irrelevant.


But if it was during a huge pump, perhaps because some garage geniuses created killer apps for bitcoin, then it could go an order of magnitude higher.

[Possum577]

What will be the value of one Bitcoin when the number of users (people that will want to use Bitcoin) will hit 21 millions?

At this point, if each user wanted to have 1 Bitcoin, will have to pay a certain number of $ or € or Y, whatever. I'm going with $ just because it's the most used around the world.

How many $ do you think that person, the n. 21 millionth, who wants to buy 1 BTC will have to pay to obtain it?

My wild guess is: 160000 $.

A lot more than we thing probably. Always take into account there are way less coins available than 21 million, a ton of them are lost forever, and a lot more aren't even mined yet, so if that threshold is surpassed the price goes higher. I cant honestly give you an exact number. I like the Xapo's CEO prediction: between 500.000 and 1 MM dollars.

Not to forget Satoshi's coins, which I think will never be used.
21 million users is not too outrageous. It is just 2% of facebook's active users.
I would say $10k will be breached when this happens.

I don't know, I think that when we will be heading towards 21 millions users, there will be so much rising in request already that the price will blow up in unpredictable manner.
It will probably also spike up into a bubble and then fall back down to the real value.
And I think Satoshis will much probably be used before 10 years from now.

21Million users is different from 21 million coins in existence. We'll probably hit 21 million users long before the 21 millionth coin is mined (which is expected to happen in over 100 years). Remember that the mining package won't be in single coins at that point, it's possible that the 21 millionth coin is never mined because it would be way to expensive to do so. Perhaps the person that earns that coin is the one who mined it, for nostalgic sake.

I wonder what your price would be in present value dollars (accounting for inflation over the next 120 years)? The value of today's Dollar would only have to inflate 551x for $160,000 when the 21 millionth coin is mined to have the spending power of today's $290.

[GODLIKE]

What will be the value of one Bitcoin when the number of users (people that will want to use Bitcoin) will hit 21 millions?

At this point, if each user wanted to have 1 Bitcoin, will have to pay a certain number of $ or € or Y, whatever. I'm going with $ just because it's the most used around the world.

How many $ do you think that person, the n. 21 millionth, who wants to buy 1 BTC will have to pay to obtain it?

My wild guess is: 160000 $.

A lot more than we thing probably. Always take into account there are way less coins available than 21 million, a ton of them are lost forever, and a lot more aren't even mined yet, so if that threshold is surpassed the price goes higher. I cant honestly give you an exact number. I like the Xapo's CEO prediction: between 500.000 and 1 MM dollars.

Even if we reach 1 Million in 10 years or more, how many of us, do you guys think, will be tempted to cash out at 5.000 Dollars? 20.000 Dollars? 100.000 Dollars? Because we'll never be sure if it hasn't been the peak.

You won't be cashing out... ever, if Bitcoin will hold up, because Bitcoin will REPLACE fiat currency.
You will just... use it.

[GODLIKE]

if 21 million users meant a BTC value of 160,000, that would imply that the average btc owner has 160k in bitcoins.

Is that realistic? I don't think so. What's a more realistic number? Probably somewhere around 1,000-2,000. So that's what the price will stabilize at, assuming the number of users stay at 21 million long enough for stabilization, but not so long that bitcoin stagnates and becomes irrelevant.


But if it was during a huge pump, perhaps because some garage geniuses created killer apps for bitcoin, then it could go an order of magnitude higher.

The problem is: what do you mean by realistic?
Maybe in 2011 people bought or mined Bitcoin in hope to have, one day, 10$ per Bitcoin.
Now they have 270$ per Bitcoin.

Now, if you think that in a not too far future Bitcoin will see a future of in increased market request, price will rise accordingly.
There's no escape to that.
So yes, now your BTC values around 270$, but while the system gains reputation around the world, price will rise.
And nobody can know how much it will end up reaching.

[GODLIKE]

What will be the value of one Bitcoin when the number of users (people that will want to use Bitcoin) will hit 21 millions?

At this point, if each user wanted to have 1 Bitcoin, will have to pay a certain number of $ or € or Y, whatever. I'm going with $ just because it's the most used around the world.

How many $ do you think that person, the n. 21 millionth, who wants to buy 1 BTC will have to pay to obtain it?

My wild guess is: 160000 $.

A lot more than we thing probably. Always take into account there are way less coins available than 21 million, a ton of them are lost forever, and a lot more aren't even mined yet, so if that threshold is surpassed the price goes higher. I cant honestly give you an exact number. I like the Xapo's CEO prediction: between 500.000 and 1 MM dollars.

Not to forget Satoshi's coins, which I think will never be used.
21 million users is not too outrageous. It is just 2% of facebook's active users.
I would say $10k will be breached when this happens.

I don't know, I think that when we will be heading towards 21 millions users, there will be so much rising in request already that the price will blow up in unpredictable manner.
It will probably also spike up into a bubble and then fall back down to the real value.
And I think Satoshis will much probably be used before 10 years from now.

21Million users is different from 21 million coins in existence. We'll probably hit 21 million users long before the 21 millionth coin is mined (which is expected to happen in over 100 years). Remember that the mining package won't be in single coins at that point, it's possible that the 21 millionth coin is never mined because it would be way to expensive to do so. Perhaps the person that earns that coin is the one who mined it, for nostalgic sake.

Of course it's like you say: that 21 millionth user I chose is just to make a "round count" with all the BTC that can ever be mined.

We are already more than 1 million around the globe now, probably around 1.5 millions.
I think we'll be 2 millions by the end of 2015.
Considering a geometric growth, we'll probably be 4 millions by the end of 2016 (I still take into account the fact that ALL of us actually using Bitcoins are open minded, tech savvy, more or less young guys, and for the rest of people it's more difficult to make them Bitcoiners, so there WILL be a brake into mainstream penetration, to geometric growth).
7 millions by end 2017.
12 millions by end 2018.
We'll probably hit 21 millions Bitcoiners before end 2019.

I wonder what your price would be in present value dollars (accounting for inflation over the next 120 years)? The value of today's Dollar would only have to inflate 551x for $160,000 when the 21 millionth coin is mined to have the spending power of today's $290.

Mhhh don't consider the 21 millionth bitcoin, but the 21 millionth BITCOINER 

If my prevision is right, by 2019, the 160000$ growth may be even very underestimated.
Now more actors are coming into the game: banks, credit cards, altcoins and more.
There will be a period of "natural selection" that could keep slowing down Bitcoin adoption while people try this and that altcoin or credit card alternative, only to find that, in the end, Bitcoin is really all they need

[GODLIKE]

What will be the value of one Bitcoin when the number of users (people that will want to use Bitcoin) will hit 21 millions?

At this point, if each user wanted to have 1 Bitcoin, will have to pay a certain number of $ or € or Y, whatever. I'm going with $ just because it's the most used around the world.

How many $ do you think that person, the n. 21 millionth, who wants to buy 1 BTC will have to pay to obtain it?

My wild guess is: 160000 $.

A lot more than we thing probably. Always take into account there are way less coins available than 21 million, a ton of them are lost forever, and a lot more aren't even mined yet, so if that threshold is surpassed the price goes higher. I cant honestly give you an exact number. I like the Xapo's CEO prediction: between 500.000 and 1 MM dollars.

Not to forget Satoshi's coins, which I think will never be used.
21 million users is not too outrageous. It is just 2% of facebook's active users.
I would say $10k will be breached when this happens.

Once you are aware that Bitcoin exists something enters your mind: You are on a never ending battle to obtain at least 1 full BTC. I think every single person that is supportive of BTC owns or is on a mission to obtain at least one.
If 21 million have that mindset, the price would explode.

Mhhh that's quite unrealistic: consider all those companies that need hundreds or thousands of Bitcoins to work, like in exampe remittances services.
But you are right that some people will just want that ONE BTC in their pocket, because why not
The problem is, price will rise... and rise... and rise... to a point where very few people will manage to get that ONE btc.
Bitcoin value will be so high that only fractions of BTC will be bought by common people.
That's why we early adopters, even today buyers, are very lucky people.

[Hopalong]

What will be the value of one Bitcoin when the number of users (people that will want to use Bitcoin) will hit 21 millions?

At this point, if each user wanted to have 1 Bitcoin, will have to pay a certain number of $ or € or Y, whatever. I'm going with $ just because it's the most used around the world.

How many $ do you think that person, the n. 21 millionth, who wants to buy 1 BTC will have to pay to obtain it?

My wild guess is: 160000 $.

A lot more than we thing probably. Always take into account there are way less coins available than 21 million, a ton of them are lost forever, and a lot more aren't even mined yet, so if that threshold is surpassed the price goes higher. I cant honestly give you an exact number. I like the Xapo's CEO prediction: between 500.000 and 1 MM dollars.

Even if we reach 1 Million in 10 years or more, how many of us, do you guys think, will be tempted to cash out at 5.000 Dollars? 20.000 Dollars? 100.000 Dollars? Because we'll never be sure if it hasn't been the peak.

You won't be cashing out... ever, if Bitcoin will hold up, because Bitcoin will REPLACE fiat currency.
You will just... use it.

Can you tell how it could replace fiat? I se no possible way that could ever happen. If fiat should fail there is no way to buy bitcoin with that fiat since noone would sell and there is no way of getting bitcoin spread around without everybody buying it.

[oblivi]

if 21 million users meant a BTC value of 160,000, that would imply that the average btc owner has 160k in bitcoins.

Is that realistic? I don't think so. What's a more realistic number? Probably somewhere around 1,000-2,000. So that's what the price will stabilize at, assuming the number of users stay at 21 million long enough for stabilization, but not so long that bitcoin stagnates and becomes irrelevant.


But if it was during a huge pump, perhaps because some garage geniuses created killer apps for bitcoin, then it could go an order of magnitude higher.

The problem is: what do you mean by realistic?
Maybe in 2011 people bought or mined Bitcoin in hope to have, one day, 10$ per Bitcoin.
Now they have 270$ per Bitcoin.

Now, if you think that in a not too far future Bitcoin will see a future of in increased market request, price will rise accordingly.
There's no escape to that.
So yes, now your BTC values around 270$, but while the system gains reputation around the world, price will rise.
And nobody can know how much it will end up reaching.

Exactly, we can't talk about what is or isn't realistic when brand new technology that can discover we can do now things we didn't even thought about before. The price is indeed invaluable. If you told anyone back in 2009 that BTC would reach 100 you would be deemed mentally insane. Imagine if you said 1000, or higher than gold.
Thing is, the future is an white paper not written yet, anything is possible.

[GODLIKE]

if 21 million users meant a BTC value of 160,000, that would imply that the average btc owner has 160k in bitcoins.

Is that realistic? I don't think so. What's a more realistic number? Probably somewhere around 1,000-2,000. So that's what the price will stabilize at, assuming the number of users stay at 21 million long enough for stabilization, but not so long that bitcoin stagnates and becomes irrelevant.


But if it was during a huge pump, perhaps because some garage geniuses created killer apps for bitcoin, then it could go an order of magnitude higher.

The problem is: what do you mean by realistic?
Maybe in 2011 people bought or mined Bitcoin in hope to have, one day, 10$ per Bitcoin.
Now they have 270$ per Bitcoin.

Now, if you think that in a not too far future Bitcoin will see a future of in increased market request, price will rise accordingly.
There's no escape to that.
So yes, now your BTC values around 270$, but while the system gains reputation around the world, price will rise.
And nobody can know how much it will end up reaching.

Exactly, we can't talk about what is or isn't realistic when brand new technology that can discover we can do now things we didn't even thought about before. The price is indeed invaluable. If you told anyone back in 2009 that BTC would reach 100 you would be deemed mentally insane. Imagine if you said 1000, or higher than gold.
Thing is, the future is an white paper not written yet, anything is possible.

Ye, still predictions can be made, and the game is fun 

[GODLIKE]

Can you tell how it could replace fiat? I se no possible way that could ever happen. If fiat should fail there is no way to buy bitcoin with that fiat since noone would sell and there is no way of getting bitcoin spread around without everybody buying it.

It's not the first time a country replaces its own currency with another one.
Latest example is Zimbabwe: http://www.thehindu.com/news/international/in-zimbabwe-1-will-cost-35-000000000000000-local-dollars/article7309953.ece

I don't know how this worked in the past, but seeing Bitcoin is not being possibly regulated in any way, it will probably go that early adopters like us are paying nearly nothing for it now, while in the future the price for one Bitcoin will increase considerably. Or better: exponentially, as we are just a small fraction of world population.

Now, this doesn't mean a person will have to buy always 1 BTC: that's simply impossible, also because there's only 21 millions.
So it's already in the blueprint that people will use mBTC or even smaller amounts like uBTC will be used for everyday exchanges.

Now the Bitcoin market cap is over 4 billion $.
This will continue to grow, up to a point where the Bitcoin market cap and the $ in circulation will be the same.
At that point, not only Bitcoin will grow in value due to increased market request, but $ inflation will begin to become unbearable.

The last persons on the planet buying Bitcoin, will buy it at a value that could well be 1 BTC = 1 billion $ (of todays value, in future, $ inflation could change that A LOT, it could be trillions).
But those persons won't be buying 1 BTC, they will buy a fraction of it, like 2 mBTC in example, or some uBTC in exchange of some thousand dollars: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=86894.0

So don't think that "one day there will be no $ to buy BTC, so that's impossible".
Think that 1) everything is possible, but even more, 2) replacement will happen slowly, more probably everybody will have some $ together with BTC for a long time yet.
Shops will accept BTC and $ for a long time.
But one day many shops will just want to cut out $ and live happy with BTC.

There's also another scenario: once one government will see Bitcoin can't be stopped, and its fiat currency being overwhelmed in inflation, it will declare its fiat currency obsolete and make it mandatory to replace it with Bitcoin before it goes out of course.
That will be probably the point when all fiat currencies will collapse and Bitcoin price will boost in a completely unpredictable manner: nobody will want fiat currency anymore, so from that point on, fiat currency will get away from the scenario, because it will be less and less accepted in venues.