Nights Watch by Afrikoin

[Afrikoin]

Silver chart

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[Afrikoin]

I am looking through Silver charts on google tagged with Elliot wave

This is one chart i came across

What i am trying to communicate is how a reversal would look like and that it is possible to reverse from an astronomical high.

There's talk of a $1400 top in the making. And that's fine.

But my concern is what comes after and i am trying to anticipate how far down it would go for - buying back!

i am long term bearish BULLISH bitcoin. Always been.

[Afrikoin]

[ErisDiscordia]

i am long term bearish bitcoin. Always been.

Bearish as in "Bitcoin as a technology will ultimately fail"? Care to elaborate?

[shannen87]

i am long term bearish bitcoin. Always been.

You finally admitted it. Why don't you change the thread title to 'BTC will fail?'

[kehtolo]

I don't see any correlation at all between Silver and Bitcoin!!    

Thats not to say it isn't there.. I wasn't around & trading silver or bitcoin back then.. but just looking at the two charts.. i don't see any similarities.  

(My first thought was: If you look hard enough for what you want to find, you will find it sooner rather than later, and eventually you will find it everywhere you look.
Confirmation bias. You have admitted bearish long term bias, so its natural you seek bearish opinions to confirm your own.)

He compared them on backwardation (really? futures markets have such an impact on btc??)
Hype.. totally subjective.. I could spend all day reading hype articles and sense that there was a 'hype building' around a topic.. or i could ignore them.. and not sense ANY hype at all.
That's just totally subjective and whatever he is sensitive too perceiving.

TSI? Currently well above 0  @~35-40...

So, having look at and compared the charts and the statements.. i just don't get it. IMO, what he's talking about (the guy who replied) is opinion.. or perhaps he just wants to agree with someone he admires, i really don't know.

You'd be better off absorbing what Mr. Lignham has to say, and also if you watch the vid i posted, Mr. Jozza.. he talks about the long-term uptrend that we're in.

Draw a line on your chart, tracing this trend (since around Oct'16) - The area near this line is an entry point if we see a drop. It won't break $900 imo and that's in the worst case scenario.

[Afrikoin]

i am long term bearish BULLISH bitcoin. Always been.

[Afrikoin]

i am long term bearish bitcoin. Always been.

You finally admitted it. Why don't you change the thread title to 'BTC will fail?'

Ha ha.

You troll!

It was a typo, i was in between writing an article.

If you keep this up I'mma have to block you from this thread

[Afrikoin]

I don't see any correlation at all between Silver and Bitcoin!!    

Thats not to say it isn't there.. I wasn't around & trading silver or bitcoin back then.. but just looking at the two charts.. i don't see any similarities.  

(My first thought was: If you look hard enough for what you want to find, you will find it sooner rather than later, and eventually you will find it everywhere you look.
Confirmation bias. You have admitted bearish long term bias, so its natural you seek bearish opinions to confirm your own.)

He compared them on backwardation (really? futures markets have such an impact on btc??)
Hype.. totally subjective.. I could spend all day reading hype articles and sense that there was a 'hype building' around a topic.. or i could ignore them.. and not sense ANY hype at all.
That's just totally subjective and whatever he is sensitive too perceiving.

TSI? Currently well above 0  @~35-40...

So, having look at and compared the charts and the statements.. i just don't get it. IMO, what he's talking about (the guy who replied) is opinion.. or perhaps he just wants to agree with someone he admires, i really don't know.

You'd be better off absorbing what Mr. Lignham has to say, and also if you watch the vid i posted, Mr. Jozza.. he talks about the long-term uptrend that we're in.

Draw a line on your chart, tracing this trend (since around Oct'16) - The area near this line is an entry point if we see a drop. It won't break $900 imo and that's in the worst case scenario.

in bold.

was a typo.

which kinda makes me not want to read what you say after (bold) because its based on an assumption

[kehtolo]

Ok, suit yourself!
At the time i wrote it, that was the information you presented. (How was I to know it was a typo, afterall, there it was in black and white, i just took it at face value)

That doesn't change what i wrote below there, though. I don't see the correlation he is talking about.

[sandiman]

Quoting a guy that first call bitcoin an IOU, when the biggest technological shift of the blockchain technology is that you own the value, not any kind of debt or IOU or whatever.

Second, comparing Silver bust when it went parabolyc in a much mature market has nothing to see with our actual bull market (I could kinf of agree fractal are here with 2013 boom/bust).

EW has a huge problem : that massive bearish biais, that can only get bigger when you sell your coin at 900ish dollars.

[Afrikoin]

Quoting a guy that first call bitcoin an IOU, when the biggest technological shift of the blockchain technology is that you own the value, not any kind of debt or IOU or whatever.

Second, comparing Silver bust when it went parabolyc in a much mature market has nothing to see with our actual bull market (I could kinf of agree fractal are here with 2013 boom/bust).

EW has a huge problem : that massive bearish biais, that can only get bigger when you sell your coin at 900ish dollars.

hey

dont be mad

the silver chart shows you can't have an infinite bull trend and it has to correct at some point.

My assessment is we are nearing a terminal point - $1400 and after that we will correct.

Some say to $1000

some say to $900

I say to $700 -$800

possibly $512

Wont happen overnight, we'll be here for months.

If you think this is a new cycle, by all mean, go ahead and keep holding. Im not here to stop you. Why do you care about my 'bearish' EW charts??

I dont get it.

What is with you people.

Im here sharing on my thread. Cant a guy have an opinion? Jeeez!

[ErisDiscordia]

i am long term bearish BULLISH bitcoin. Always been.

Freudian slip

[sandiman]

Quoting a guy that first call bitcoin an IOU, when the biggest technological shift of the blockchain technology is that you own the value, not any kind of debt or IOU or whatever.

Second, comparing Silver bust when it went parabolyc in a much mature market has nothing to see with our actual bull market (I could kinf of agree fractal are here with 2013 boom/bust).

EW has a huge problem : that massive bearish biais, that can only get bigger when you sell your coin at 900ish dollars.

hey

dont be mad

the silver chart shows you can't have an infinite bull trend and it has to correct at some point.

My assessment is we are nearing a terminal point - $1400 and after that we will correct.

Some say to $1000

some say to $900

I say to $700 -$800

possibly $512

Wont happen overnight, we'll be here for months.

If you think this is a new cycle, by all mean, go ahead and keep holding. Im not here to stop you. Why do you care about my 'bearish' EW charts??

I dont get it.

What is with you people.

Im here sharing on my thread. Cant a guy have an opinion? Jeeez!

Ahah sorry didn't want to be mean.

I got the same strategy as you do, look for a local top to unload part of my position, and get in back again for a long awaited "historical" bull run.

just reading about that guy speaking of bitcoin as a mere IOU that got me mad.

[darlidada]

@Afrikoin : what about the huge cup and handle on the weekly bitcoin chartt? https://bitcoinwisdom.com/markets/bitfinex/btcusd

The handle seems to already be there and we are breaking upwards

I read this and the pattern is bullish http://www.investopedia.com/terms/c/cupandhandle.asp

I'm sure you know all of this already but I'd like to know why you discard it. thx again for all the knowledge you share

[BitcoinNewsMagazine]

Quoting a guy that first call bitcoin an IOU, when the biggest technological shift of the blockchain technology is that you own the value, not any kind of debt or IOU or whatever.

Second, comparing Silver bust when it went parabolyc in a much mature market has nothing to see with our actual bull market (I could kinf of agree fractal are here with 2013 boom/bust).

EW has a huge problem : that massive bearish biais, that can only get bigger when you sell your coin at 900ish dollars.

hey

dont be mad

the silver chart shows you can't have an infinite bull trend and it has to correct at some point.

My assessment is we are nearing a terminal point - $1400 and after that we will correct.

Some say to $1000

some say to $900

I say to $700 -$800

possibly $512

Wont happen overnight, we'll be here for months.

If you think this is a new cycle, by all mean, go ahead and keep holding. Im not here to stop you. Why do you care about my 'bearish' EW charts??

I dont get it.

What is with you people.

Im here sharing on my thread. Cant a guy have an opinion? Jeeez!

Ahah sorry didn't want to be mean.

I got the same strategy as you do, look for a local top to unload part of my position, and get in back again for a long awaited "historical" bull run.

just reading about that guy speaking of bitcoin as a mere IOU that got me mad.

Do not forget to figure in taxes if you sell. You might be better off just holding rather than trying to time the market.

[Afrikoin]

Bitcoin price analysis March 1

Here is my weekly summary analysis

Wrote this yesterday

https://www.deepdotweb.com/2017/03/01/bitcoin-price-analysis-march-1-2017/

[Afrikoin]

@Afrikoin : what about the huge cup and handle on the weekly bitcoin chartt? https://bitcoinwisdom.com/markets/bitfinex/btcusd

The handle seems to already be there and we are breaking upwards

I read this and the pattern is bullish http://www.investopedia.com/terms/c/cupandhandle.asp

I'm sure you know all of this already but I'd like to know why you discard it. thx again for all the knowledge you share

Because not all patterns come true

You can not use one pattern and stick by it because it might play out differently

There have been many calls of cup and handle patterns that didn't turn out as expected

It is one out of many possibilities

[silverfuture]

Thanks for putting your thoughts out there Africoin.  I appreciate your efforts. I don't expect anyone to be able to predict the future and there is no sense in being angry when the world or markets inevitably don't play out as we wish. I'm almost 100% coin atm but have been taking small profits on the way up to prepare for a bear phase and to lessen any emotional blow of a quick drop on bad news.  One's own emotional state is as important as that of the market and probably a lot more important in fact.

[Okurkabinladin]

Guys,

if I understood correctly, the depth of correction will depend on the volume and severity of the first leg down, is it right?

For example, if we somehow crashed 32% from ATH in the span of 48 hours on fairly high volume it could be all of it? Or is longer, perhaps 12+ month period of downtrend neccessary at this point? I am all ears for your input. Thank you.