Nights Watch by Afrikoin

[Ted E. Bare]

Based on past wave shapes, this could form a triangle and then break down, from an overbought state.
For me the question is where will it find support, if it will form a higher low, then the bullish scenario, up to 700$, will be favored.
If it will correct down to say 410$, then we'll probably be in the middle of a complex correction and probably a much lower low looming.

I think that a fundamental as essential as the upcoming block reward halving should invalidate such a bearish scenario. But it's healthy to keep the discussion going that's why I like this thread. The bitcoin price can be unpredictable at times.

[1714093419]

1714093419

[1714093419]

1714093419

[Afrikoin]

[btcltccoins]

Yes the price of bitcoins against USD is gradually increasing, although some times there is a big Dip or a big hype, but overall the growth is steady .

[Afrikoin]

[Afrikoin]

"Mother Of All Short Squeezes" Looms For Bitcoin

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-05-08/mother-all-short-squeezes-looms-bitcoin

[Tzupy]

"Mother Of All Short Squeezes" Looms For Bitcoin

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-05-08/mother-all-short-squeezes-looms-bitcoin

And if a long squeeze happens instead? Would you consider never quoting again the author of that article?
Bitcoin price is at a critical point. It may break the 500$ resistance, or invalidate the bullish scenario and crash hard, so caution is advised.
I would rather have the bullish scenario, since the bearish scenario would imply many months of downtrend and sideways, but I'll try to be ready for the big bear.

[Afrikoin]

"Mother Of All Short Squeezes" Looms For Bitcoin

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-05-08/mother-all-short-squeezes-looms-bitcoin

And if a long squeeze happens instead? Would you consider never quoting again the author of that article?
Bitcoin price is at a critical point. It may break the 500$ resistance, or invalidate the bullish scenario and crash hard, so caution is advised.
I would rather have the bullish scenario, since the bearish scenario would imply many months of downtrend and sideways, but I'll try to be ready for the big bear.

Doubt it. I wouldnt quote him again. Axed immediately!

I do a lot of sentiment analysis. Its bullish i believe. A lot of 'experts' have put their reputation on the line by declaring a bull

Charles Morris
Raul paul
Vinny Langham
adamstgBit
Tony Gallippi
Tuur Demeester
Sam Altman (cough)
Russell Newton

Its a long list. Wise to be on the right side of history

[Tzupy]

https://www.cryptocoinsnews.com/bitcoin-price-high-tension-wire/

[Afrikoin]

chessnut's view on the current market conditions?

I am cautious about this count but it is a fair case for a halving bubble. There is a lot of opportunity for ambiguity here.

[Afrikoin]

https://www.cryptocoinsnews.com/bitcoin-price-high-tension-wire/

I am open to a correction to as low as $430 for another attempt at breaking up. I got in at $423 so plenty of room to hold.

[Afrikoin]

Bitcoin’s on a bull run again

http://qz.com/678928/bitcoins-on-a-bull-run-again/

[Tzupy]

https://www.cryptocoinsnews.com/mt-gox-trustee-suspends-release-bitcoin-addresses-list/

[Afrikoin]

chessnut's view on the current market conditions?

I am cautious about this count but it is a fair case for a halving bubble. There is a lot of opportunity for ambiguity here.

-snip-

I am not an EW expert but it looks to me like the newest III in the C wave is yet to be confirmed by surpassing I's peak. Only after we get there we can start speculating about this scenario.

This is why he makes the addition that there is plenty of ambiguity. It is a safe count since the triangle broke up and has an impulsive structure making wave-1. Until invalidation, at the wave-1 low (also the E wave, triangle termination), this is considered wave-2 and triangle retest. The ambiguous parts being that triangles can also be nested 1-2's  and there is one scenario where the triangle can be the end of a correction and this is an overthrow of a sorts before making a bearish move. I do not think the latter is the case at the moment, so no need for concern, yet.

chessnut's view on the current market conditions?

I am cautious about this count but it is a fair case for a halving bubble. There is a lot of opportunity for ambiguity here.

masterluc believed we are in historical III which would fit nicely with a halving bubble.

What luc is talking about is a wave-III that would be 5 years, or so, long. A little more grand than a halving rally. What I mean is that it's possible that the halving rally is merely a small part of his proposed wave-III. I do not subscribe to that belief, but would be fine if it did.

[Afrikoin]

Why I am bullish, off the top of my head.

+ LOts of fin market 'experts' have made bold bull forecasts- Vinny, Tony Gallippi, Raol Paul, Chris Morris. While these people could be wrong, they have a good record and arguably, insider info that some of us are not privy to eg Gallippi. In fact, i remember gallippi made a correct bull call last year before the run up.

+ Coming halving

I believe it is in the interest of the whole bitcoin ecosytem (whales included) if price went up (again) during/before or after the halving. It helps build a narrative for bitcoin, that of scarce supply, deflation, higher prices and new asset class.

If bitcoin turned bearish , it would damage outsiders view of bitcoin, especially now after Craig's drama. Also, bearish before a supply halving doesn't make bitcoin look attractive for all its cut out to be.

+ News has been good of late,for a while now. If bitcoin turned bearish now, after all the good news/press coverage that has come out, it would not be good for its image.

My case is, it is in the interest of all of us (whales/manipulators included) if price went up before/during/after the halving. It helps reinforce the image of bitcoin to the rest of the world who do not know about bitcoin or have heard of it marginally.

That said however, I am conscious of my bullish bias. Of course, as some are saying, it could turn bearish. But, based on all i have looked at (technical aside), there is a general fever of a price rise and it would be a shame if it went to waste.


COuple this with the charts, that show a continuation pattern (debatable).

I am open to a price fall to $423 even $420, but that is as low as i expect a move down.

Now, having said this, if(when) price goes up, it might disappoint a lot of moon callers. I am targeting an exit at $650. But see $700 as possible. But, thereafter, manipulators/whales/gods/whoever can step back in and sell the shit out of the market, back down to X. If i had to catch traders off guard, I would turn bearish after a halving (mini) bubble. This way, trap anyone who fell for the halving mania and surprisingly sell off. But then, i have a bullish bias, so, i could be expressing my bias here.

Basically, I am expecting this

PS: Sorry about my poor english, i can't be bothered to edit. Hope you make out what i am attemtping to communicate

[killerjoegreece]

Why I am bullish, off the top of my head.

+ LOts of fin market 'experts' have made bold bull forecasts- Vinny, Tony Gallippi, Raol Paul, Chris Morris. While these people could be wrong, they have a good record and arguably, insider info that some of us are not privy to eg Gallippi. In fact, i remember gallippi made a correct bull call last year before the run up.

+ Coming halving

I believe it is in the interest of the whole bitcoin ecosytem (whales included) if price went up (again) during/before or after the halving. It helps build a narrative for bitcoin, that of scarce supply, deflation, higher prices and new asset class.

If bitcoin turned bearish , it would damage outsiders view of bitcoin, especially now after Craig's drama. Also, bearish before a supply halving doesn't make bitcoin look attractive for all its cut out to be.

+ News has been good of late,for a while now. If bitcoin turned bearish now, after all the good news/press coverage that has come out, it would not be good for its image.

My case is, it is in the interest of all of us (whales/manipulators included) if price went up before/during/after the halving. It helps reinforce the image of bitcoin to the rest of the world who do not know about bitcoin or have heard of it marginally.

That said however, I am conscious of my bullish bias. Of course, as some are saying, it could turn bearish. But, based on all i have looked at (technical aside), there is a general fever of a price rise and it would be a shame if it went to waste.


COuple this with the charts, that show a continuation pattern (debatable).

I am open to a price fall to $423 even $420, but that is as low as i expect a move down.

Now, having said this, if(when) price goes up, it might disappoint a lot of moon callers. I am targeting an exit at $650. But see $700 as possible. But, thereafter, manipulators/whales/gods/whoever can step back in and sell the shit out of the market, back down to X. If i had to catch traders off guard, I would turn bearish after a halving (mini) bubble. This way, trap anyone who fell for the halving mania and surprisingly sell off. But then, i have a bullish bias, so, i could be expressing my bias here.

Basically, I am expecting this

PS: Sorry about my poor english, i can't be bothered to edit. Hope you make out what i am attemtping to communicate

I completely agree and I have to add that the only way for bitcoin is up!

[Afrikoin]

Breaking 3030 could make this impulse a primary wave... the implications are potentially very bullish.



notice how the retrace of hypothetical i is exactly 0.618... just how we like it.

[Afrikoin]

slowly but surely..

Everything when it takes it's own time, becomes wounderful

volume looks pretty shitty though

wouldnt be surprised if we break that nice uptrend and test 370 again. lots of bullish expectations and barely any volume.

When triangles break out, they break violently. This is pretty tame for a triangle that lasted ~6 months. 

[Afrikoin]

its not about the halfing

its about all the new shit dev.ed during the bear market
its about segwit + LN increasing capacity to potentially limitless
its about banks recognizing blockchain tech's potential.

[Afrikoin]

"On a technical level, this looks like June 2014. The most staggering indicator is the volume oscillator on the weekly which is in the absolute basement right now. Literally the lowest point on the graph in its history

With margin longs approaching an all time high, the market is essentially saying that while there is no volume to confirm the current rally, we hope somebody swoops in and suddenly buys a lot of bitcoin so that we can start taking profits on our margin positions.

Fundamentals would need to change drastically (protocol update) or those margin longs would need to get shaken out for volume to even support a rally to warrant a run beyond 470. This goes for LTC as well which is getting heavily pumped by folks at Whale Club.
"

[Afrikoin]

Assuming that both gold and bitcoin are breaking out of a bear phase, what precisely would that signal about the global macro environment?

https://twitter.com/TuurDemeester/status/732276472350547968