Nights Watch by Afrikoin

[Afrikoin]

as this weekend dump is coming to a close, a few points I would like to make.

1: a lot of money has been flowing into bitcoin recently... as such I imagine the price will continue up this week.

2: if you think the ETF will be denied, your optimal strategy will be to sell later this week... perhaps Wednesday or Thursday, and then rebuy on the dip after it is denied.

3: there are many people who are expecting the price to collapse if the ETF is denied. they are wrong. let's say the price rises into the upper 1300s this week and the ETF is denied I would expect a $100-$200 drop to bring us into the lower 1200s. perhaps lower but only briefly. then we resume up. many people attempting to buy the dip will miss it.

4: if the ETF is approved, you can buy afterwards. the best case scenario in terms of price increase is for the ETF to be approved and to start trading in a month or two. speculation would drive the price up very nicely and when the ETF starts trading, it will likely keep us up there.

if the ETF is denied we get to start speculating on the next ETF right? or the GBTC $500 million IPO which is planned for October? correst me if I'm wrong please.

https://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/5xl1hv/daily_discussion_sunday_march_05_2017/deja03k/

I appreciate your detailed analysis, but I don't agree with some of your points.

I think you're right that, barring any announcement, the price will continue to rise this week.

When the SEC is planning to reject an ETF, they usually tell the submitter in advance, and the submitter usually withdraws the proposal, on average 3.5 days before the deadline. In other words, a withdrawal could happen any time in the next week. Therefore, the best play for those anticipating rejection would be to sell and place low buy orders now. (I don't like selling, so I found some other money to cover my extremely low buy orders. While I'm hoping for approval, I wouldn't mind the opportunity to double my coins.)

I believe much of the run-up in recent months has been in anticipation of the COIN ETF, and bitcoin tends to overreact to news, so I expect the flash crash will be lower than you're anticipating. However, I agree that we will recover to the current levels, although I think it might take a few months. If the flash crash is not low enough to hit the extremely low buy orders I placed last week, I expect to be able to buy the dip after a withdrawal or rejection below $800.

If the ETF is approved, I expect an immediate price jump, not a gradual one. Markets tend to price things in well in advance. I expect the upward jump from approval will be much larger than crash after withdrawal or rejection, so it makes sense to be long, although I'm not brave enough to be leveraged long.

Yes, you are absolutely right. We will soon start speculating on the next ETF, so even if the COIN ETF is not approved, I expect that we'll be hitting new all-time highs before the end of 2017, which is another reason to stay long through the next week.

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[Afrikoin]

good video by joel

Market Update: Pushing Highs

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YZHYcrx8PQ8

[Afrikoin]

[shannen87]

I really want to see Afrikon's face when no dump (of more than 15-20%) happens after ETF.
I bet he's going to cry. He is the most pessimistic person I have every seen.
Always posts about dump, dump, dump like he wakes up and prays for dump dump dump.

[Afrikoin]

I really want to see Afrikon's face when no dump (of more than 15-20%) happens after ETF.
I bet he's going to cry. He is the most pessimistic person I have every seen.
Always posts about dump, dump, dump like he wakes up and prays for dump dump dump.

you are right! I am going to cry!

Lol!

Look, you got to put your neck out in this world and pick a stand. Win or lose, it is more important to have a stand.

Maybe you will appreciate this when you grow out of your diapers

[Afrikoin]

Still winning though.

so, there's that too

 

[Afrikoin]

I really want to see Afrikon's face when no dump (of more than 15-20%) happens after ETF.
I bet he's going to cry. He is the most pessimistic person I have every seen.
Always posts about dump, dump, dump like he wakes up and prays for dump dump dump.

Can we agree that if a post ETF dump happens of upto 15%, you never come back to post on this thread?

[shannen87]

I really want to see Afrikon's face when no dump (of more than 15-20%) happens after ETF.
I bet he's going to cry. He is the most pessimistic person I have every seen.
Always posts about dump, dump, dump like he wakes up and prays for dump dump dump.

Can we agree that if a post ETF dump happens of upto 15%, you never come back to post on this thread?

Yes, same to you. You unfollow Vinny Lingham on Twitter
PS: I said 15-20% MAX.

[Afrikoin]

I really want to see Afrikon's face when no dump (of more than 15-20%) happens after ETF.
I bet he's going to cry. He is the most pessimistic person I have every seen.
Always posts about dump, dump, dump like he wakes up and prays for dump dump dump.

Can we agree that if a post ETF dump happens of upto 15%, you never come back to post on this thread?

Yes, same to you. You unfollow Vinny Lingham on Twitter
PS: I said 15-20% MAX.

Upon ETD rejection, BTC price won't get crashed.
It will drop -15/-20% MAX. from current price.
So don't except prices under $1000 in any case.
MARK my words.

The first drop will be to $1000

the second drop will be to $700 - $800

An a - b - c correction of the wave 5 top on the weekly.

Then we reassess the market

[shannen87]

I really want to see Afrikon's face when no dump (of more than 15-20%) happens after ETF.
I bet he's going to cry. He is the most pessimistic person I have every seen.
Always posts about dump, dump, dump like he wakes up and prays for dump dump dump.

Can we agree that if a post ETF dump happens of upto 15%, you never come back to post on this thread?

Yes, same to you. You unfollow Vinny Lingham on Twitter
PS: I said 15-20% MAX.

Upon ETD rejection, BTC price won't get crashed.
It will drop -15/-20% MAX. from current price.
So don't except prices under $1000 in any case.
MARK my words.

The first drop will be to $1000

the second drop will be to $700 - $800

An a - b - c correction of the wave 5 top on the weekly.

Then we reassess the market

Oh and one last thing that I got from insider information, ETF will get aproved. Mark my words.

[Afrikoin]

I really want to see Afrikon's face when no dump (of more than 15-20%) happens after ETF.
I bet he's going to cry. He is the most pessimistic person I have every seen.
Always posts about dump, dump, dump like he wakes up and prays for dump dump dump.

Can we agree that if a post ETF dump happens of upto 15%, you never come back to post on this thread?

Yes, same to you. You unfollow Vinny Lingham on Twitter
PS: I said 15-20% MAX.

Upon ETD rejection, BTC price won't get crashed.
It will drop -15/-20% MAX. from current price.
So don't except prices under $1000 in any case.
MARK my words.

The first drop will be to $1000

the second drop will be to $700 - $800

An a - b - c correction of the wave 5 top on the weekly.

Then we reassess the market

Oh and one last thing that I got from insider information, ETF will get aproved. Mark my words.

Wow! Big claim

I'll happily concede if it does.

My expectations are based on a rejection.

[Afrikoin]

The Origins of the Blocksize Debate

https://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/5xg7f8/the_origins_of_the_blocksize_debate/


Does any one else think the hard fork debate has intensified?
Certainly got louder over the past 6 weeks.

Could we be headed for a hard fork in the days to come?

more on today's episode of bitcoin hard fork drama

see comments here

https://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/5xv6yq/antpool_just_mined_a_bu_block/

[molecular]

The Origins of the Blocksize Debate

https://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/5xg7f8/the_origins_of_the_blocksize_debate/


Does any one else think the hard fork debate has intensified?
Certainly got louder over the past 6 weeks.

Could we be headed for a hard fork in the days to come?

more on today's episode of bitcoin hard fork drama

see comments here

https://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/5xv6yq/antpool_just_mined_a_bu_block/

also on the other reddit:

https://www.reddit.com/r/btc/comments/5xv0at/antpool_signals_for_bitcoin_unlimited/

just to balance things... ;-)

[Afrikoin]

Gold: A Boombustology Perspective

by Vikram Mansharamani, PhD

http://www.mansharamani.com/opinion-piece/gold-a-boombustology-perspective/

[molecular]

Gold: A Boombustology Perspective

by Vikram Mansharamani, PhD

http://www.mansharamani.com/opinion-piece/gold-a-boombustology-perspective/

Let us suppose for a minute, however, that higher prices increase demand.  Such a dynamic might arise for many reasons, but one eloquent explanation for such an outcome in asset markets is the Theory of Reflexivity, as proposed by George Soros.  Although the theory has many subtleties beyond the simplified “self-fulfilling” logic that many ascribe to it, the underlying implication of this perspective is that prices can and do tend away from equilibrium.  In this case, boom and bust dynamics appear highly likely.

This actually happened in all previous bitcoin hypes.

[Afrikoin]

that was a-b-c after 5.

 

[shannen87]

that was a-b-c after 5.

 

I was waiting like crazy for your reply Afrikoin.
Now BTC is down -5% since yesterday can't wait for your comments, I am sure they will come like a BIG WAVE

[Afrikoin]

that was a-b-c after 5.

 

I was waiting like crazy for your reply Afrikoin.
Now BTC is down -5% since yesterday can't wait for your comments, I am sure they will come like a BIG WAVE

this is just the beginning.

this a-b-c mini

there is still an A-B-C to come on the weekly after a wave 5 top on the weekly chart

while i am on it i will add that the bitcoin unlimited drama from today has increased my confidence on possibly lower prices than your measly $1000.

$800 now looks reasonable.

[Afrikoin]

look out for a dip like this to buy for a bounce

[Afrikoin]

bounce off gold