[poll] BFL is scam?

[bitmar]

good news for you !!!

you can see here how many users they are on eclipse
https://eclipsemc.com/

Active Miners    1497
Current Speed:    1.73 TH/s

of course they are asic miner who mining !!!!

here the production line
http://www.butterflylabs.com/mini-rig-production-line/

LOL   This is FPGA minirig, no ASIC

But the question is, do they look like they are packing up shop?

It does not prove anything. With all due respect to the BFL of course (I am not saying that they are scammers)
Scam companies always look credible and trustworthy, if not they could not fool the people People are suspicious of companies who sell preorders and risk their money. I think it's normal

It proves they have a good running company.
What would motivate them to take a relatively small sum of money and run from authority if they can have fun doing things they like while they earn their money? I think it would be pointless and stupid.

Pointless and stupid ? definitely not.
Now I write only hypothetically, one of the scenarios. Let no one takes this seriously:

Company "X" specializes in FPGA rigs. FPGA is not cheap. They collect a large sum of money and invest in FPGA rigs. They buy equipment and produce lots of new rigs. Now 3 options:
1. They tell people, sorry but we could not produce the ASIC. were wrong, it's not that simple. We'll give you  money back but we need a some time. They make money on mining and slowly give people their money. Everything is legal. Repay people and enjoy  mega FPGA mine.
2. they declare bankruptcy. Officially lost all money on research into ASIC. I do not know what it's like in the U.S., but in some countries, the owners are not responsible for the bankruptcy of his company with no fault of their own. The Company has the right to bankruptcy, it happens. People lose money
3. They disappear with a few million dollars. They calculated that on fraud will earn more than the legal business. Bitcoin is a niche project and have a limited small number of potential customers. Create ASIC for such a small group would be unprofitable.

and 4 option. They produce ASIC and everybody is happy For the good bitcoin is the best option and I hope that will be true.

[mobodick]

Pointless and stupid ? definitely not.
Now I write only hypothetically, one of the scenarios. Let no one takes this seriously:

Company "X" specializes in FPGA rigs. FPGA is not cheap. They collect a large sum of money and invest in FPGA rigs. They buy equipment and produce lots of new rigs. Now 3 options:
1. They tell people, sorry but we could not produce the ASIC. were wrong, it's not that simple. We'll give you  money back but we need a some time. They make money on mining and slowly give people their money. Everything is legal. Repay people and enjoy  mega FPGA mine.
2. they declare bankruptcy. Officially lost all money on research into ASIC. I do not know what it's like in the U.S., but in some countries, the owners are not responsible for the bankruptcy of his company with no fault of their own. The Company has the right to bankruptcy, it happens. People lose money
3. They disappear with a few million dollars. They calculated that on fraud will earn more than the legal business. Bitcoin is a niche project and have a limited small number of potential customers. Create ASIC for such a small group would be unprofitable.

and 4 option. They produce ASIC and everybody is happy For the good bitcoin is the best option and I hope that will be true.

Take a good look at your point 3.
It doesnt make sense.
The millions they would take were payed by the same people that you say are a small number of potential customers.
What's more, they would have had everything ready to produce cheap ASICs but then throw it away? I don't think so.
Remember that they can only once run away with the money.
But if they keep honest they can produce their hardware cheaply and make a very good profit and be happy in life instead of running away.
Remember that they are a legitimate shop so if they run they will be sought by authorities.

Of course they could run and i can make up a milion stories of how it could have happened.
But the truth is i don't see any reason not tu trust them. They feel like a genuine small electronics firm with all the usual supply problems etc. They are in fact doing good!
I've followed some honest stories of people starting their own hardware projects and it was sjust painfull to see how many hurdles you must take to get anything like this going. I have deep respect that they managed the FPGAs and am confident they will deliver on the ASICs.

[Phinnaeus Gage]

I'm not very familiar with the production, but I assume that in the final stage should already have something to show people besides cartoon drawings  Especially not one I doubt the veracity of, here on the English forum even jokingly called these "club member foil hats"

Well, there is a very good reason for not showing the actual implementation.
A board designer can learn a lot about the architecture by looking at an empty pbc.
With components this problem is even bigger.
For a small company it is very important to keep the design a secret as long as possible.
Otherwise a chinese firm with bigger facilities and no work will take your design and push it to market before you do.
Welcome to the brutal world of electronics manufacturing.
 

(bold) If that's the case, why would somebody pre-order when a cheaper model form China would be just over the horizon after the very first shipment?

[mobodick]

I'm not very familiar with the production, but I assume that in the final stage should already have something to show people besides cartoon drawings  Especially not one I doubt the veracity of, here on the English forum even jokingly called these "club member foil hats"

Well, there is a very good reason for not showing the actual implementation.
A board designer can learn a lot about the architecture by looking at an empty pbc.
With components this problem is even bigger.
For a small company it is very important to keep the design a secret as long as possible.
Otherwise a chinese firm with bigger facilities and no work will take your design and push it to market before you do.
Welcome to the brutal world of electronics manufacturing.
 

(bold) If that's the case, why would somebody pre-order when a cheaper model form China would be just over the horizon after the very first shipment?

No idea. But would you take the risk of being left behind a couple of months?

[bitmar]

Pointless and stupid ? definitely not.
Now I write only hypothetically, one of the scenarios. Let no one takes this seriously:

Company "X" specializes in FPGA rigs. FPGA is not cheap. They collect a large sum of money and invest in FPGA rigs. They buy equipment and produce lots of new rigs. Now 3 options:
1. They tell people, sorry but we could not produce the ASIC. were wrong, it's not that simple. We'll give you  money back but we need a some time. They make money on mining and slowly give people their money. Everything is legal. Repay people and enjoy  mega FPGA mine.
2. they declare bankruptcy. Officially lost all money on research into ASIC. I do not know what it's like in the U.S., but in some countries, the owners are not responsible for the bankruptcy of his company with no fault of their own. The Company has the right to bankruptcy, it happens. People lose money
3. They disappear with a few million dollars. They calculated that on fraud will earn more than the legal business. Bitcoin is a niche project and have a limited small number of potential customers. Create ASIC for such a small group would be unprofitable.

and 4 option. They produce ASIC and everybody is happy For the good bitcoin is the best option and I hope that will be true.

Take a good look at your point 3.
It doesnt make sense.
The millions they would take were payed by the same people that you say are a small number of potential customers.
What's more, they would have had everything ready to produce cheap ASICs but then throw it away? I don't think so.
Remember that they can only once run away with the money.
But if they keep honest they can produce their hardware cheaply and make a very good profit and be happy in life instead of running away.
Remember that they are a legitimate shop so if they run they will be sought by authorities.

Of course they could run and i can make up a milion stories of how it could have happened.
But the truth is i don't see any reason not tu trust them. They feel like a genuine small electronics firm with all the usual supply problems etc. They are in fact doing good!
I've followed some honest stories of people starting their own hardware projects and it was sjust painfull to see how many hurdles you must take to get anything like this going. I have deep respect that they managed the FPGAs and am confident they will deliver on the ASICs.

Any type of business carries the risk of failure, especially those based on new technologies like ASIC. if something goes wrong sometimes the best option is to escape. I see many reasons to use extreme caution:
1. They do not invest (risk) their money but the money of its customers.
2. They base their business on preorders, they do not have the finished product
3. This kind of business reminds pyramid type business - http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pyramid_scheme

Many companies sell preorders, but usually we see a demo of their product or company is so large and famous that in the event of failure would give people money back. If BFL fail people will lose money. it's all just my very loose speculation.

[naima53]

\....\
7. When Mavrodi the Manipulator decides "enough" - BANG ! GLBSE is "hacked", oh, oh, oh, that's bad, but not for him  Grin There is no the database (doesn't it remind something?), it's unknown how much everyone owes.. This leads to collapse of BTC (but HE knows that this is not the end, just a good opportunity to buy very cheap..  Roll Eyes)\.....Я

Point 7 b 

[psilan]

Chinese electronic manufacturers do not steal. What a great American myth.
Do you think they'd ever get any business again if they did?

[firefop]

ok, my mistake. If they are going to do 900 boards per 24 hours, they should execute all orders in a week or two or three. The point is, it's not worth the risk to buy preorder to gain a few days time. I'm not saying that BFL is a scam, they can make mistakes and go bankrupt as well.  A simple calculation of risk - possible profits and losses.

I'm fairly sure that most early investors understood that we were funding the development of ACIS products, even if it wasn't stated.

It absolutely was in our interests to support BFL and pre-order for the simple fact that if we get in a first batch... we're suddenly collecting 2 weeks for coins in hours/days before the difficulty can adjust. It's a gamble in the sense that if BFL doesn't release first (which could actually happen now) then we've lost that advantage. But the risk of them not producing a product after already having an existing shop producing FPGA... and being a US based business, is next to non-existent.

Even if they go tits-up and never produce an ASIC product, we'd still be able to recover that investment through legal channels.

[Gatorhex]

Sod the Facebook movie, the Bitcoin one is gonna be figgin awsome!  

Has anyone bagged the rights with hollywood yet? Kerching!  

[naima53]

best version of translate, thanks!

My tin foil hat doesn't give me a moment of peace...  Undecided It would be very tempting to make a fortune on vain expectations of miners. Like that... (the nearest future)
1. The reward is cut from 50 to 25
2. ASICs have not shipped yet (seems they won't be shipped at all)
3. People realize that GPU mining has become, to put it mildly, not profitable (now, before ASICs are shipped), especially those who are not in Russia (they are majority), they pay for electricity  Grin
4. Those who know about the conspiracy buy as much BTC as possible trying not to send the price up, but the price, of course, goes up slowly..
5. There are no ASICs yet (maybe the deadline will be postponed, it doesn't matter), this can last for a long time, reasonable time
6. A lot of miners due to hopeless situation buy up different bonds, joint investments into chip development, there should be a lot of such bonds/investments..
7. When Mavrodi the Manipulator decides "enough" - BANG ! GLBSE is "hacked", oh, oh, oh, that's bad, but not for him  Grin There is no the database (doesn't it remind something?), it's unknown how much everyone owes.. This leads to collapse of BTC (but HE knows that this is not the end, just a good opportunity to buy very cheap..  Roll Eyes)
8. "Correction" caused by the news about GLBSE slowly transforms into growth..
9. Now the most interesting has begun..... (someone has to be the first, I suppose it will be the biggest). For instance BFL announces that manufacturing is sabotaged and ASICs won't be shipped! The others, of course, do the same after that (they didn't even intended to manufacture anything, they just share profit or have other causes to keep mouths closed)
10. HUUUUUUGE GROWTH of BTC price, probably up to 1000, I really believe in it.., and only the Manipulator decides when this growth will be stopped (which is PROFIT!)

https://www.btcfpga.com/forum/index.php?topic=1041.msg3093

[naima53]

best version of translate, thanks!
My tin foil hat doesn't give me a moment of peace...  Undecided It would be very tempting to make a fortune on vain expectations of miners. Like that... (the nearest future)
1. The reward is cut from 50 to 25
2. ASICs have not shipped yet (seems they won't be shipped at all)
3. People realize that GPU mining has become, to put it mildly, not profitable (now, before ASICs are shipped), especially those who are not in Russia (they are majority), they pay for electricity  Grin
4. Those who know about the conspiracy buy as much BTC as possible trying not to send the price up, but the price, of course, goes up slowly..
5. There are no ASICs yet (maybe the deadline will be postponed, it doesn't matter), this can last for a long time, reasonable time
6. A lot of miners due to hopeless situation buy up different bonds, joint investments into chip development, there should be a lot of such bonds/investments..
7. When Mavrodi the Manipulator decides "enough" - BANG ! GLBSE is "hacked", oh, oh, oh, that's bad, but not for him  Grin There is no the database (doesn't it remind something?), it's unknown how much everyone owes.. This leads to collapse of BTC (but HE knows that this is not the end, just a good opportunity to buy very cheap..  Roll Eyes)
8. "Correction" caused by the news about GLBSE slowly transforms into growth..
9. Now the most interesting has begun..... (someone has to be the first, I suppose it will be the biggest). For instance BFL announces that manufacturing is sabotaged and ASICs won't be shipped! The others, of course, do the same after that (they didn't even intended to manufacture anything, they just share profit or have other causes to keep mouths closed)
10. HUUUUUUGE GROWTH of BTC price, probably up to 1000, I really believe in it.., and only the Manipulator decides when this growth will be stopped (which is PROFIT!)
add that I have in mind that this is a planned operation (from the start it was doomed.)
The edges of the foil hat get into my brain, causing such bad thoughts circuit neurons.  

point 9 ?
Restart pool

[qwerty40]

1. They tell people, sorry but we could not produce the ASIC. were wrong, it's not that simple. We'll give you  money back but we need a some time. They make money on mining and slowly give people their money. Everything is legal. Repay people and enjoy  mega FPGA mine.

+1

[GambitBTC]

my vote made it even 17 17 

[naima53]

One year ago....

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=69041.0

Soon, probably will be available in high-performance devices for mining such as "Rig Box" This is probably "accidentally" coincide with the regular inflated "bubble".

Turns out, I knew it a year ago! 

[johnniewalker]

All I have to say is, since everyone is so confident of their idea, they should put their money where their mouth is. There are a couple of BTC sites that facilitate the process and make it easy as pie.