Diff thread Nov 11 to Nov 24 Set up stage-picks are now closed!

[philipma1957]

384532 (Main Chain)   2015-11-21 00:02:42   F2Pool   00000000000000000860c5b9429f78ed94db860c347ec72ac0f7cc3a1b3371b8
384667 (Main Chain)   2015-11-21 18:14:30   Slush   000000000000000001b11ef38a2a4d7e30ad9064529ef50e4a77bd1ddb72f099


110 Expected and 135 Found so 23% TODAY!

huge fucking spike today

 384669 (Main Chain)   2015-11-21 18:46:14

384532 (Main Chain)   2015-11-21 00:02:42

138 in the time it should be 113 

so that would be  174 in 24 hours.

10% looks pretty certain.

[d57heinz]

Glad to see you all are starting to see what I've been saying.  I think it's above the realm of variance I would expect 10% spike for variance. So possible that it's only a 10% of network sized farm cranking on.  Could be hw tests.  Hell the diff should technically double at least with the new efficiency of machines. Just have to see what's up:). Sure is fun to speculate

Best regards
D57heinz

[philipma1957]

Glad to see you all are starting to see what I've been saying.  I think it's above the realm of variance I would expect 10% spike for variance. So possible that it's only a 10% of network sized farm cranking on.  Could be hw tests.  Hell the diff should technically double at least with the new efficiency of machines. Just have to see what's up:). Sure is fun to speculate

Best regards
D57heinz

diff to catch up to  sept 4 price diff eff ratio

 needs to be over 110.

 this won't happen since all that .5 watt gear won't vanish.

Somewhere 2 months ago I predicted a quick move to 70 then flat  .  with not a big price jump.

well price jumped.  I will changed prediction higher.  85 then flat.  going past 85  will not be easy. (price at 350 or so)

once again WTF do I know? Bottom line is it is just a guess!

[adaseb]

384689 (Main Chain)   2015-11-21 21:25:42   BW.COM   000000000000000006bc8785d43270bdf0ec0f03dc3b496781b11d5c0de29bf9
384532 (Main Chain)   2015-11-21 00:02:42   F2Pool   00000000000000000860c5b9429f78ed94db860c347ec72ac0f7cc3a1b3371b8


22.65% more then it should have.

In a few hours we will get the final tally but its definately going to be around 30 blocks extra created than usual.

[philipma1957]

In the last 180 days
 
17?   Nov  21
169   Nov  20
175   Nov  16
169   Nov  11
167   Oct   30
167   Oct   19

170   Sept  29
167   Sept  25
168   Sept  10
170   Aug   11
168   Aug   10
174   July   24
171   July     6
172   June    6

Easy to see  Oct and Nov are really moving the dial upwards.

May 17 to Sep 17  48.8 bill to 59.3 bill   in 4 months a jump of 21.5%

Sept 17 to Nov 21  59.3 bill to   72.2 bill in 2 months a jump of 21.7%

[adaseb]

Day is done so

384705 (Main Chain)   2015-11-21 23:57:32   000000000000000001da84b1e1c3ce89af70960989397061eadeb4596444d7ca
384532 (Main Chain)   2015-11-21 00:02:42   00000000000000000860c5b9429f78ed94db860c347ec72ac0f7cc3a1b3371b8

173 blocks found when should of been 144

+29

20%

[notlist3d]

Day is done so

384705 (Main Chain)   2015-11-21 23:57:32   000000000000000001da84b1e1c3ce89af70960989397061eadeb4596444d7ca
384532 (Main Chain)   2015-11-21 00:02:42   00000000000000000860c5b9429f78ed94db860c347ec72ac0f7cc3a1b3371b8

173 blocks found when should of been 144

+29

20%

That is crazy never thought I would see those numbers again with size of hashrate now.   Below is bitwisdom:

Bitcoin Difficulty:    65,848,255,180
Estimated Next Difficulty:    72,222,173,626 (+9.68%)
Adjust time:    After 336 Blocks, About 2.1 days
Hashrate(?):    526,826,811 GH/s

I think i agree with those saying over 10 chances are... which is not really the way we want it to go.

[philipma1957]

okay day 11

http://btc.blockr.io/charts

11-11-2015   169 blocks  this is a plus 25   now the first 77 blocks were on the last adjustment  So  on a part day I guess +14

11-12-2015  158 blocks this is plus 14    total is +28
 
11-13-2015   161 blocks  this is plus 17 total is +45

11-14-2015   146 + 2                               +47

11-15-2015   156 is +12                           +59    

 11-16-2015  172 is +28                           +87

11-17-2015   146 is +2                             +89   and plus 2 looks nice

11-18-2015   156 is +12                           +101

11-19-2015   131 is -13                            +88  same drop about the same time last diff adj

11-20-2015   169 blocks or + 25               back up to a very big  113 over.

11-21-2015   178 blocks or + 35                   148 over more then 1 full day! 

we  made 1704  should be 1556   I get  (+9.51%)


https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty  (+10.24%)


Bitcoin Difficulty:   65,848,255,180
Estimated Next Difficulty:   72,593,586,602 (+10.24%)
Adjust time:   After 312 Blocks, About 1.9 days
Hashrate(?):   535,654,674 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 8.9 minutes
3 blocks: 26.9 minutes
6 blocks: 53.7 minutes
Updated:   23:10 (2.5 minutes ago)

[mavericklm]

Estimated Next Difficulty:    72,591,042,295 (+10.24%)
Adjust time:    After 317 Blocks, About 2.0 days
Hashrate(?):    536,067,649 GH/s

craaaaap!
fuckin' big leap, fuckin' big swings... damn the price!!!

[adaseb]

I think 20% is considered a good thing.

Right now

384741 (Main Chain)   2015-11-22 03:31:09   Slush   000000000000000001ac0df7bfb9349fd6d8cd7acdea584520d33f8b3ad8d915

384706 (Main Chain)   2015-11-22 00:01:54   F2Pool   00000000000000000bcf3e6f7580c8cddcef9bcc460447fcca368c41c5b2a724

66%

But its much too early in the day.

[d57heinz]

I think 20% is considered a good thing.

Right now

384741 (Main Chain)   2015-11-22 03:31:09   Slush   000000000000000001ac0df7bfb9349fd6d8cd7acdea584520d33f8b3ad8d915

384706 (Main Chain)   2015-11-22 00:01:54   F2Pool   00000000000000000bcf3e6f7580c8cddcef9bcc460447fcca368c41c5b2a724

66%

But its much too early in the day.

Net Hashrate

664,821.06 TH/s 

and when the network gets that speed we will be at 92,874,428,825.17302000 diff

http://bitcoin.sipa.be/speed-lin-2k.png
Best Regards
d57heinz

[philipma1957]

I think 20% is considered a good thing.

Right now

384741 (Main Chain)   2015-11-22 03:31:09   Slush   000000000000000001ac0df7bfb9349fd6d8cd7acdea584520d33f8b3ad8d915

384706 (Main Chain)   2015-11-22 00:01:54   F2Pool   00000000000000000bcf3e6f7580c8cddcef9bcc460447fcca368c41c5b2a724

66%

But its much too early in the day.

Net Hashrate

664,821.06 TH/s  

and when the network gets that speed we will be at 92,874,428,825.17302000 diff

http://bitcoin.sipa.be/speed-lin-2k.png
Best Regards
d57heinz

fud  and not accurate   you  use short time and state it to be fact. it is a half truth or yellow journalism.


  here is fact as of right now we are +9.5%  and not +41.5%  as you suggest.

we  made 1704  should be 1556   I get  (+9.51%)


https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty  (+10.24%)


Don't be a Seriouscoin  dude.

[suchmoon]

I think 20% is considered a good thing.

Right now

384741 (Main Chain)   2015-11-22 03:31:09   Slush   000000000000000001ac0df7bfb9349fd6d8cd7acdea584520d33f8b3ad8d915

384706 (Main Chain)   2015-11-22 00:01:54   F2Pool   00000000000000000bcf3e6f7580c8cddcef9bcc460447fcca368c41c5b2a724

66%

But its much too early in the day.

Net Hashrate

664,821.06 TH/s 

and when the network gets that speed we will be at 92,874,428,825.17302000 diff

http://bitcoin.sipa.be/speed-lin-2k.png
Best Regards
d57heinz

Guys you're getting ridiculous. There is a reason diff is adjusted based the average of 2016 blocks. Yes, it's going to be a big one. No, it's not 60% or even 20%, not even close. As an exercise try calculating the possible MAXIMUM diff increase this cycle, i.e. if all remaining blocks were solved instantaneously.

[Quickseller]

Using heavily rounded numbers, if the remaining blocks (until the difficulty adjusts) were to be solved nearly instantly then the difficulty would increase roughly 27%.

Again using heavily rounded numbers, we are about 150 blocks ahead where we would be expected to be if luck remained at 100% and no equipment was ever added nor removed from the network. Based on 11/14 days into this difficulty period (severe rounding is going to make this number inaccurate), we are looking at a roughly 15% increase.

[alh]

Using heavily rounded numbers, if the remaining blocks (until the difficulty adjusts) were to be solved nearly instantly then the difficulty would increase roughly 27%.

Again using heavily rounded numbers, we are about 150 blocks ahead where we would be expected to be if luck remained at 100% and no equipment was ever added nor removed from the network. Based on 11/14 days into this difficulty period (severe rounding is going to make this number inaccurate), we are looking at a roughly 15% increase.

There you go, messing up an exciting story with math and facts..... 

Yes, it's going to feel like a gut punch, but it's not going to even be 20%.

[UfoRia]

If it's less then 11% I will consider it a win, which it isn't from a mining perspective for me.

Any recommendations for asic co-lo's? I pay 0.085c right now, so I am looking for an exit already. Preferably, a recommendation from established members that have used the co-lo's that have positive ratings.

Thanks in advance!


Ufo

[d57heinz]

I think 20% is considered a good thing.

Right now

384741 (Main Chain)   2015-11-22 03:31:09   Slush   000000000000000001ac0df7bfb9349fd6d8cd7acdea584520d33f8b3ad8d915

384706 (Main Chain)   2015-11-22 00:01:54   F2Pool   00000000000000000bcf3e6f7580c8cddcef9bcc460447fcca368c41c5b2a724

66%

But its much too early in the day.

Net Hashrate

664,821.06 TH/s  

and when the network gets that speed we will be at 92,874,428,825.17302000 diff

http://bitcoin.sipa.be/speed-lin-2k.png
Best Regards
d57heinz

fud  and not accurate   you  use short time and state it to be fact. it is a half truth or yellow journalism.


  here is fact as of right now we are +9.5%  and not +41.5%  as you suggest.

we  made 1704  should be 1556   I get  (+9.51%)


https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty  (+10.24%)


Don't be a Seriouscoin  dude.

Gotcha.. well if i win this round just keep it!

Best Regards and good luck with your contest
Doug

[d57heinz]

http://www.coindesk.com/bitfury-completion-16nm-bitcoin-mining-asic/

Little reminder for all of you .  thinking it will level off lmao

ohh and this is a speculation thread.... But i can prove everything i said with charts and numbers.. so to flat out basically cal me a liar is rather bold of you to say the least not to mention not very good community liaison if you ask me. Keep sucking bitmain hind tit maybe that will get you somewhere!

Best Regards
Doug
d57heinz

[philipma1957]

http://www.coindesk.com/bitfury-completion-16nm-bitcoin-mining-asic/

Little reminder for all of you .  thinking it will level off lmao

hey don't be insulted  it is not about predicting that 92 diff is happening or that 150 diff will happen.

Both may happen down the road.

 you are writing like  92 bill diff  is happening in 1 day it is not.

And  72 bill diff is to happen in a day .


sept  4 diff was 56 bill

sept 4 price was 230

so 56 to 72 = 28%  diff

  235 to 325 = 38%  price jump

So if you stood pat with an s-5   from sept 4 until now  you had 2 ½ good mining months.

If you switched to S-7 in early sept  and sold your s-5's when price spiked to 490-510  you also whaled.

The sky has not fallen.   And diff will level off again

[d57heinz]

http://www.coindesk.com/bitfury-completion-16nm-bitcoin-mining-asic/

Little reminder for all of you .  thinking it will level off lmao

hey don't be insulted  it is not about predicting that 92 diff is happening or that 150 diff will happen.

Both may happen down the road.

 you are writing like  92 bill diff  is happening in 1 day it is not.

And  72 bill diff is to happen in a day .


sept  4 diff was 56 bill

sept 4 price was 230

so 56 to 72 = 28%  diff

  235 to 325 = 38%  price jump

So if you stood pat with an s-5   from sept 4 until now  you had 2 ½ good mining months.

If you switched to S-7 in early sept  and sold your s-5's when price spiked to 490-510  you also whaled.

The sky has not fallen.   And diff will level off again

so let me get this straight. i wasnt saying the diff was where it was.. im working in 24 hour time frames and talking about what the current net hashrate is at the time i posted, which the swings we been having on the 24 hour isnt variance. but ok we agree to disagree.. but you tell me not to be insulted while you insult me.. how can i not be insulted...how about quit selling for bitmain as your opinions are obviously biased as hell.... but anyway im talking about the 24 hour time frame  if you look here you can see it moving in big ways.. but im done here you insulted me for the one and only time.. Good luck with your thread.  and by the looks of the list i think i have a good grip on whats going on.. just sorry that you all are on the philipma train with blinders on.  
http://bitcoin.sipa.be/speed-lin-2k.png
watch the blue line
Best Regards
d57heinz