[CHART] Bitcoin Inflation vs. Time

[Web3monk]

Yes, there are ways we can predict Bitcoin’s monetary inflation in advance, thanks to its deterministic monetary policy coded into the Bitcoin protocol. Here's how Web3 knowledge, especially a blockchain-native perspective, helps in interpreting and forecasting Bitcoin’s supply-side inflation

1. Bitcoin’s Monetary Policy Is Code-Based and Public

Bitcoin’s issuance schedule is algorithmic—defined by the block reward, which halves roughly every 210,000 blocks (~every 4 years). This makes future inflation rates predictable because:

The current block reward is 3.125 BTC (as of the 2024 halving).

We can compute total supply at any point by summing the block rewards up to a given block height.

Since supply is capped at 21 million BTC, we know the asymptotic end-state.


2. Predictable Supply, Variable Time

As you noted, block production is targeted at 10 minutes per block, but in reality, due to rising hash rate (and resulting downward pressure on block times), blocks often arrive slightly faster. This means:

Temporal estimation (e.g., which year we’ll reach a certain supply level) has some uncertainty.

But block-height-based prediction remains exact.


Tools like [Bitcoin Core], [Mempool.space], or [Glassnode] allow tracking of block height, hash rate trends, and average block time, all of which help refine time-adjusted inflation predictions.

3. Web3-Native Analytics and Models

Platforms like Dune, Flipside, and TokenTerminal (while more Ethereum/DeFi focused) offer insights that could be adapted for Bitcoin:

Dune Analytics: With Bitcoin indexers, one could chart live or historical inflation, issuance rate, and miner behavior.

On-chain data: Tracking unspent outputs (UTXOs), miner wallet activity, and difficulty adjustments can offer short-term predictive insights into changes in issuance rate.

4. Hash Rate as a Leading Indicator

Web3 researchers often model hash rate growth to estimate:

When we’ll hit the next halving

When full supply will be mined A spike in hash rate means blocks are produced faster, pushing the halving date forward. This is why the “year” axis on the chart is approximate—it assumes constant hash rate, which isn’t realistic in a competitive mining ecosystem

5. Simulations

Using Python or Solidity-based testnets (like Ethereum testnets for ERC20s), you can simulate monetary policy models. For Bitcoin, tools like:

btcsupply.py scripts

Bitcoin Core testnet can help create simulations to forecast inflation under different hash rate growth scenarios.

Summary

Yes, we can predict Bitcoin inflation before the time, but we must distinguish between predictable issuance (block-based) and estimated calendar dates (time-based). Web3 tooling helps by:

Leveraging on-chain data

Modeling miner behavior

Monitoring hash rate trends

Simulating future inflation schedules programmatically

[OkoroT]

The number of transactions per second of Bitcoin increases over time 6 , as well as the wealth carried by the transactions. The more transaction you made in bitcoin determine the increase.
But the less transaction in bitcoin decreases

[JayJuanGee]

Bitcoin has key features that protect it from inflation: it's not tied to any country's money, central banks don't create it, and there's a limited number of Bitcoins available. But, its price changes a lot... it's a risky asset.

Your statement comes off as confusing.

You are suggesting that since the bitcoin price changes a lot it is risky or for some other reason bitcoin is risky?

Anyone who buys into bitcoin should adjust his level of exposure based on his perception of risk.. so an individual, institution and/or government could allocate 5% to 25% of his investment portfolio into bitcoin based on perception of risk the allocation should be adjusted.. and sure some might choose to go outside of that range.. and others become too scared to get involved when they probably would be better off to have a whimpy allocation rather than no allocation, but those are personal choices that could end up being costly choices if some folks/institutions choose to either not allocate or to delay their allocation..

My sense is that volatility in itself is not risk, even though it could be an element of risk, but if you consider that bitcoin has a key feature that protects it from risk, then you would be inclined to believe that bitcoin's price slope is generally upward, otherwise it would not fit with being a protector from inflation.

We likely realize that the supply curve of fiat currencies is up, yet the supply curve of bitcoin is flat, even though there is a set issuance of new bitcoin supply at an ongoingly diminishing rate for the next 115-ish years.

[Barrykbest]

Bitcoin has key features that protect it from inflation: it's not tied to any country's money, central banks don't create it, and there's a limited number of Bitcoins available. But, its price changes a lot... it's a risky asset.

Your statement comes off as confusing.

You are suggesting that since the bitcoin price changes a lot it is risky or for some other reason bitcoin is risky?

Anyone who buys into bitcoin should adjust his level of exposure based on his perception of risk.. so an individual, institution and/or government could allocate 5% to 25% of his investment portfolio into bitcoin based on perception of risk the allocation should be adjusted.. and sure some might choose to go outside of that range.. and others become too scared to get involved when they probably would be better off to have a whimpy allocation rather than no allocation, but those are personal choices that could end up being costly choices if some folks/institutions choose to either not allocate or to delay their allocation..

My sense is that volatility in itself is not risk, even though it could be an element of risk, but if you consider that bitcoin has a key feature that protects it from risk, then you would be inclined to believe that bitcoin's price slope is generally upward, otherwise it would not fit with being a protector from inflation.

We likely realize that the supply curve of fiat currencies is up, yet the supply curve of bitcoin is flat, even though there is a set issuance of new bitcoin supply at an ongoingly diminishing rate for the next 115-ish years.

This a solid clarification. Many people still confuse volatility with risk, but they’re not the same thing. Volatility is just a price movement, it can work for or against you depending on your horizon.
Bitcoin’s predictable supply and diminishing issuance are what make it a long-term hedge, even if short-term fluctuations seem wild I think What matters is how one manages exposure and conviction during those volatile phases, not avoiding them altogether. Over time, the fixed supply narrative always wins against inflationary currencies.

[RealNoblee]

One may ask, would we expect at some point, that if bitcoin is widely adopted as many expected that the price would not really be speculative anymore but rather hold a value that is consistent while only adjusts to inflation?

Obviously, since bitcoin is still in its adoption period, I will say yes,  we have it as a more speculative assets since price discovery is constantly going very strong.

But in a very large term, once bitcoin it’s adopted globally as a store of value, then we say it should only increase at the rate of global inflation.

[JayJuanGee]

One may ask, would we expect at some point, that if bitcoin is widely adopted as many expected that the price would not really be speculative anymore but rather hold a value that is consistent while only adjusts to inflation?

You are asking what bitcoin would look like if it were more widely adopted, yet that is such a fantasyland question, since part of bitcoin's ongoing dynamics remains its lack of adoption and sometimes being discussed as if it were widely adopted and/or mature, when it is not even close to either of those.

For more critical thinking attempts in regards, to where bitcoin is and where bitcoin might be going, it seems we have to get through the adoption phase first, since whatever adoption that is going on seems to ba a kinds of cooptation and desire to control bitcoin rather than desires that bitcoin is actually used to give self-sovereignty  and control to individuals - even though we can already exercise a certain amount of self-sovereignty and control through bitcoin, yet bitcoin is not being promoted in order to help any normies in regards to what actually brings empowerment to normies.

Obviously, since bitcoin is still in its adoption period, I will say yes,  we have it as a more speculative assets since price discovery is constantly going very strong.

But in a very large term, once bitcoin it’s adopted globally as a store of value, then we say it should only increase at the rate of global inflation.

You seem to be assuming how bitcoin  will be adopted without providing any evidence for your speculation.

It seems to me that the battle for individual use of bitcoin is ongoing, and we have a quite a lot of distracting uses, and yeah, we cannot really stop how BIGGER players are seeming to want to use bitcoin and/or how to channel us through ONLY their official channels and not really recognizing abilities to transact directly between normies... perhaps part of the battle of the coming 20 years will continue to revolve around the self-sovereignty aspect of bitcoin and the extent that it continues to exist, even while such self-sovereignty (and even privacy) is ongoingly being attacked.

[Tungbulu]

Obviously, since bitcoin is still in its adoption period, I will say yes,  we have it as a more speculative assets since price discovery is constantly going very strong.

But in a very large term, once bitcoin it’s adopted globally as a store of value, then we say it should only increase at the rate of global inflation.

You seem to be assuming how bitcoin  will be adopted without providing any evidence for your speculation.

It seems to me that the battle for individual use of bitcoin is ongoing, and we have a quite a lot of distracting uses, and yeah, we cannot really stop how BIGGER players are seeming to want to use bitcoin and/or how to channel us through ONLY their official channels and not really recognizing abilities to transact directly between normies... perhaps part of the battle of the coming 20 years will continue to revolve around the self-sovereignty aspect of bitcoin and the extent that it continues to exist, even while such self-sovereignty (and even privacy) is ongoingly being attacked.

I agree with you, because when you really look at the big picture, a lot of the attentions around Bitcoin usually comes from the big players like the exchanges, banks and the regulators. While the core idea of Bitcoin as a tool for individual sovereignty and direct p2p transactions is mostly ignored. Many people feel like protecting self sovereignty is just philosophical idea, but that’s far from the truth because this is something we’ve seen tested multiple times in real life. And the more Bitcoin is being funneled through these centralized institutions, then there’s every chance that the freedom that Bitcoin is originally meant to offer would be definitely reduced.

And to further buttress your point. This whole thing goes beyond just privacy and p2p transactions, it’s also more about increasing the resilience and accessibility of Bitcoin for those who uses it everyday. And if it eventually becomes too tied to these centralized systems, then it could definitely end up recreating the same barriers that it was initially created to remove.

[BLEIOT]

Obviously, since bitcoin is still in its adoption period, I will say yes,  we have it as a more speculative assets since price discovery is constantly going very strong.

But in a very large term, once bitcoin it’s adopted globally as a store of value, then we say it should only increase at the rate of global inflation.

You seem to be assuming how bitcoin  will be adopted without providing any evidence for your speculation.

It seems to me that the battle for individual use of bitcoin is ongoing, and we have a quite a lot of distracting uses, and yeah, we cannot really stop how BIGGER players are seeming to want to use bitcoin and/or how to channel us through ONLY their official channels and not really recognizing abilities to transact directly between normies... perhaps part of the battle of the coming 20 years will continue to revolve around the self-sovereignty aspect of bitcoin and the extent that it continues to exist, even while such self-sovereignty (and even privacy) is ongoingly being attacked.

I agree with you, because when you really look at the big picture, a lot of the attentions around Bitcoin usually comes from the big players like the exchanges, banks and the regulators. While the core idea of Bitcoin as a tool for individual sovereignty and direct p2p transactions is mostly ignored. Many people feel like protecting self sovereignty is just philosophical idea, but that’s far from the truth because this is something we’ve seen tested multiple times in real life. And the more Bitcoin is being funneled through these centralized institutions, then there’s every chance that the freedom that Bitcoin is originally meant to offer would be definitely reduced.

And to further buttress your point. This whole thing goes beyond just privacy and p2p transactions, it’s also more about increasing the resilience and accessibility of Bitcoin for those who uses it everyday. And if it eventually becomes too tied to these centralized systems, then it could definitely end up recreating the same barriers that it was initially created to remove.

Industrial-scale mining is slowly losing ground — costs keep rising, halvings cut profitability, and regulatory pressure isn’t going away. Decentralization is getting deeper, not weaker.

[pliego]

Aha, so this is the 'printing' rate of new Bitcoin, not its purchasing power. And the top timeline is a best guess—with hash rate always going up, we're actually moving a little faster than the chart says. The hard cap doesn't change, we just get there a bit sooner. Good looks on the explainer

I had the same confusion back then XD once you separate printing from price it makes way more sense