btt

[ShroomsKit]

Oh god this shit again. Yes i was pissed off because i sent my coins to buy the ipo and because of a glitch on their end they didn't receive it. Instead of saying sorry and we'll see what we can do to work something out they basically told me to piss off.
Don't act as if you wouldn't be pissed off in a situation like that please.  

You'll have more success if you leave emotions out of your trading decisions.

I was pissed because they screwed me over. What does that have to do with trading decisions?
And once again don't act like you wouldn't be pissed. Don't be an hypocrite.

Well I don't know what exactly you experienced, but ytterbium seemed to be suggesting that after you missed the IPO price, you chose not to buy in afterwards during the copious opportunities at .0016ish. Is that correct?

?

Absolutely not relevant.

You're right. I thought this was the ShroomsKit's Poor Decisions thread. Back to Basic Mining then.

I wonder why these random attacks happen. What's in it for you?
They screwed me over with their ipo and for some reason you and a few others in the original thread used that to attack me.
I so wonder why. What's your motive? I'd really like to understand it.

I make a post in this thread saying how it's my own fault for buying Basic shares way too high and for some reason that results in an attack at me based on another thread where i got screwed over.
How??

ETA: Still no answer so let me ask again. If you try to get in on an ipo with quite some money. You are perfectly in time but because of a "glitch" (still not convinced it wasn't done on purpose) your coins don't arrive. Instead of a sorry and let me see what we can do for you they say "sucks to be you".
Would that piss you off?
The fact that you twice refused to answer it actually says enough. So nevermind really.

[1715266888]

1715266888

[gimme_bottles]

Hi, where can I found share prices history for the very beginning?

if you look at BASIC-MINING at btct.co, it's hard to not see the hint below the chart.

[carpetbagger]

ETA: Still no answer so let me ask again. If you try to get in on an ipo with quite some money. You are perfectly in time but because of a "glitch" (still not convinced it wasn't done on purpose) your coins don't arrive. Instead of a sorry and let me see what we can do for you they say "sucks to be you".
Would that piss you off?

No it wouldn't piss me off to the degree you seem to be, although certainly I'd be annoyed for a day or so. I myself had all my coins present and accounted for days before trading opened on labcoin. I ended up bidding higher than .001, so when the dust had settled, I got less than I could have had at .001. Then, because I wouldn't have bought it in the first place if I thought it wasn't a good investment, I continued buying shares as quickly as I could. It took around 25 minutes because of the problems that everyone was facing that day using the site.

End result was that I got far less shares than I wanted, and paid an average price of .001655 for them.

Would that piss you off? (I can take a guess, lol) I was a little annoyed, but what can ya do huh?

I sincerely apologize for randomly attacking you, and the ridiculous delay on the reply.

[ShroomsKit]

ETA: Still no answer so let me ask again. If you try to get in on an ipo with quite some money. You are perfectly in time but because of a "glitch" (still not convinced it wasn't done on purpose) your coins don't arrive. Instead of a sorry and let me see what we can do for you they say "sucks to be you".
Would that piss you off?

No it wouldn't piss me off to the degree you seem to be, although certainly I'd be annoyed for a day or so. I myself had all my coins present and accounted for days before trading opened on labcoin. I ended up bidding higher than .001, so when the dust had settled, I got less than I could have had at .001. Then, because I wouldn't have bought it in the first place if I thought it wasn't a good investment, I continued buying shares as quickly as I could. It took around 25 minutes because of the problems that everyone was facing that day using the site.

End result was that I got far less shares than I wanted, and paid an average price of .001655 for them.

Would that piss you off? (I can take a guess, lol) I was a little annoyed, but what can ya do huh?

I sincerely apologize for randomly attacking you, and the ridiculous delay on the reply.

Thank you.

[zero3112]

Hi, where can I found share prices history for the very beginning?

coinflow.co has been tracking the price history of varies assets from a variety of exchanges for almost a year the direct link for BASIC-MINING here http://www.coinflow.co/chart/BASIC-MINING

[xhomerx10]

Hey,

 I recently used one of the profitability calculators on the internet to see if acquiring some USB erupters was a worthwhile venture. It seemed as though I could theoretically see my money returned.  Using that site was lazy I'll admit and it will be my own fault when they are not profitable which will be the case.  At any rate, to redeem myself I sat down yesterday and actually figured out conservatively how many coins a given miner will produce in its lifetime in the current climate.  The reason I am posting it here is that I think it will be of value to any further acquisitions made by bASIC-MINING.  I can't show all the math because I don't know how to display summation notation and powers with this editor. 

Assumptions
You will acquire the device the day you do the calculation
Block reward is 25 coins
Rate of network difficulty change 2.5%/day

Calculation
Divide the hashing rate (in hashes per second) of your desired machine by the current difficulty and multiply by 0.0201166 <---- rounded off

Conclusion
A 5 GH/s BFL Jalapeno arriving today will produce a total of 1.6BTC (ever!)
A Bock erupter Blade purchased for 5.79 BTC today will produce a total of 3.977 (ever!) <--- provided you run it over-clocked at 13GH/s

If you don't believe 2.5%/day and would prefer to use 2%/day then you can multiply your result by 1.2
Want to use 1.5%? Then use the factor 1.67

 Take care
 

[creativex]

Hi xhomerx10. I'd be interested in the specifics you used in your calculations. A couple of observations. First, difficulty has been going up by more than 2.5%/day and the next increase looks to continue this trend. Secondly, don't forget to factor in the cost of powered USB hubs to operate your satoshi sticks.

Cheers.

[AbendWind]

Hi, creativex!
I think, the main question that is interesting for everybody is what equipment are you going to by in the future. So what and when?
Perhaps, the situation with share price decreasing is the result of lack of information.

[bobboooiie]

Hi, creativex!
I think, the main question that is interesting for everybody is what equipment are you going to by in the future. So what and when?
Perhaps, the situation with share price decreasing is the result of lack of information.

And "everybody" minus you know the answer to this, as it was answered like 2-3 times in the last 10 pages  

[creativex]

Hi, creativex!
I think, the main question that is interesting for everybody is what equipment are you going to by in the future. So what and when?
Perhaps, the situation with share price decreasing is the result of lack of information.

Hi AbendWind. I could go back months, but the bottom line is that there's nothing available for immediate shipment that makes much sense and pre-ordering gear with uncertain or lengthy lead times is a recipe for disaster in this environment. I believe bitfury Europe got some 55nm products shipped prior to the end of the month. Bitfury US missed their projected timeline, but I believe they're hoping to ship early this week. Hopefully we'll have more information about their finished products very soon and we can plan to move toward G2 equipment in the near future. I even saw an unsubstantiated rumor that bitfury is working on a 28nm die shrink of their amazingly efficient 55nm chip design that may be available as early as November. Network expansion such as we're currently seeing means we must be very careful how we deploy funds.



I realize there are those that would like me to simply say we're pre-ordering x,xxx Gh/s from vendor x, but doing so would be unwise.

Cheers.

1) I've worked toward bulk pricing/preferential treatment with vendors in the past and will do so in the future.
2) We do not have any pre-orders with anyone at this time. Pre-orders have been fairly toxic for mining companies. I'm keeping abreast of knc's progress, but with so many vendors looking to ship in Q4 I can't say who's gear we'll end up with at this point. As bitfury's chips are substantially more efficient than knc's, all else being equal then we'd surely be better off with bitfury gear as it should remain profitable longer.

Hi guitarplinker. The thing is it's not a question of resources at this time. We're sitting on over 775BTC precisely 776.5493 in reserves right now. This is enough to obtain nearly 14Th/s in pre-ordered gear from cointerra for December delivery or 4.8Th/s from bitfury for October delivery at current exchange rates(bitstamp). The problem is the same as it's been since spring/summer of 2012, and that is that locking in our funds for unproven vaporware with lead times measured in months(or years) is unwise. It's even worse than it appears because we'd also be locking in an exchange rate. An exchange rate which btw is rapidly climbing in our favor. We also cannot run out and load up on currently available hardware that's soon to be obsolete because we may or may not ever see a return on that investment. A couple such mistakes could cripple us going forward. It's my belief that when things are moving so quickly that the future is nearly impossible to predict with any level of confidence then the correct play is to shorten your scope substantially. That is, reduce risk by sticking to decisions with outcomes that can be predicted with some measure of confidence.

Hi weezerfan. I'd very much like to simply calculate how many avalons we'd need to add on to keep up with difficulty each re-target and go out and source them, but that won't work as we'd eventually go broke. Safeguarding shareholder value is much more than just maintaining a consistent dividend payout. I have to run each and every purchase candidate through my own common sense detector to determine if we're likely to at the very least get our money back out of this gear before I have to unplug it to stop losses from expenses. We're at a crossroad here where those on the cutting edge are transitioning to 2nd gen ASIC equipment and just like the previous major equipment shifts(CPU --> GPU --> FPGA --> ASIC) there's a lot to gain or lose. I believe we have to keep sufficient powder dry so that we can make significant purchases of gen2 gear when it's actually available.

What FMG points out in the post following yours is accurate, but, if we play it smart we don't have to be victimized by the laws of big numbers. Sure while it would take 17 avalons to double our hashrate now, a single cointerra unit would more than double our hashrate in Dec or January. We just have to not shoot ourselves in the foot before we can get there. In between I see potential in bitfury's products for October delivery and possibly knc's products for November delivery to possibly tide us over.

Also I think it's important to keep in mind that while the law of big numbers applies to our hashrate, so too it applies to everyone else's and the global network itself. It's not hard to believe the global network can expand by 3%/day for a few quarters after new technology revolutionizes mining, but the amount of capital required to sustain that growth long term eventually makes it unsustainable unless the exchange rate grows along with it, which in turn would make older less efficient gear profitable longer.

Thank you FloatesMcG, kind of you to say. It saddens me somewhat to have to disagree with you after such a nice lead-in. While obviously nobody can keep up with difficulty increases step for step right now(not even FC), nor should they beat themselves to death trying, we all know this kind of expansion cannot go on forever. It will go on until the market is saturated, pre-order queues dry up, and mining margins thin significantly. If you take the pulse of the forum just now it's easy to see attitudes changing from "ASIC ANYTHING = TAKE MY MONEY NOW!" to "2Th/s for $16k? pffft...overpriced". Remarkably that vendor quickly lowered their pricetag in response. For now I'm just holding on and trying to make decisions that ensure we at least break even on every purchase.

It was never my intent to build a company based on scavenging gear, it's just my mechanism for adapting to the current market forces. There just isn't a reliable supplier of in hand original equipment that's priced in such a way that there's still enough meat on the bone to justify the risks. This will change in the near future IMO, and the people with dry powder will benefit. Love what's going on over at bitfury for instance.

When I speak of efficiency, I'm referring to power consumption. BFL's 65nm based products are somewhere between 50-60% more efficient than ASICMiner's current 130nm offerings. While this hasn't mattered much in the past as operating costs are currently negligible, this will change as operating margins for miners continues to contract. Eventually all but the most efficient ASIC gear will be forced offline as they'll cost more in electricity than they're generating in revenue. Bitfury's 55nm gear shipping is significant in that it's the first gear to take the efficiency lead away from BFL.

As you said, the auction that you linked is for Oct/Nov delivery. Dave at bitfury has suggested that bitfury chip orders would ship early in October and finished products would likely ship toward the end of October. This is one more link in the chain we'd have to rely on and the potential savings we'd get by going with Barntech's auction over a direct pre-order purchase at megabigpower would seem to offer  a poor risk/reward profile.

[JimiQ84]

Cointerra also looks promising (2TH/s for 14k USD), but delivery time is set to december. Difficulty will be counted in billions by then

[creativex]

That's precisely the problem with this lengthy lead time pre-order model. 2Th/s for $14k looks fine now, but with the network growing by nearly 3% every day the risk that by the time you receive your gear you'll already be in a hole so deep you'll never get out of it makes it a risky proposition. Then there's this concept of locking in an exchange rate months before you actually receive what you've paid for. Why would you do that when exchange rates are moving in your favor? It makes no sense and you'd think these companies would have trouble raising any capital with this model, particularly given the dreadful performance of vendors using this model the past year+.

[stslimited]

Cointerra also looks promising (2TH/s for 14k USD), but delivery time is set to december. Difficulty will be counted in billions by then

lol because thats actually possible if we keep the same pace

difficulty was under 10 million 3 months ago, and looks to be heading above 100 million within the next two difficulty changes


actually makes KNC Miners look like a bad bet too, I was doing profit estimates with their gear at like 200 million difficulty, but now that looks  like a pipe dream (did not order)

[xhomerx10]

Hi xhomerx10. I'd be interested in the specifics you used in your calculations. A couple of observations. First, difficulty has been going up by more than 2.5%/day and the next increase looks to continue this trend. Secondly, don't forget to factor in the cost of powered USB hubs to operate your satoshi sticks.

Cheers.

 Hi Creativex,

  I was calculating a compounded rate on diff and if you take 2.5% compounded daily over 10 days (which is as long as the Bitcoin network took to finish the last 2 sets of 2016 blocks) it works out to just shy of a 30% and I think the last two changes were right around there.  I didn't factor in electricity costs - I am merely trying to show the maximum number of coins you can generate. If you can't mine at least as many bitcoins as it would take you to buy it at today's exchange rate, it is simply not worth buying the device.  The bitcoins would be a better purchase for your money.

 Essentially, I calculated the current reward and used a power series to factor in the rate of change of difficulty hence the declining reward.  

 Consider h is hash rate in hashes per second, t is time in seconds, D is difficulty, the probability of generating a block is 1/(2^32*D) and the current block reward is 25 BTC

 reward = 25*h*t/(2^32*D)

 now substitute 86400 seconds for the time to represent one day's reward for each subsequent day, increase D by 2.5% (so D*1.025) of the previous day and as you can see we have a convergent power series: 1 + x + x^2 + x^3... whose sum can be calculated using the formula [x^(m-1)-1]/(x-1)  for m iterations OR to simplify further, we can use an infinite number of iterations which gives us the sum 1/(1-x)

 x will have the value 1/1.025 (because D is in the denominator) if we consider the 2.5% per day compound increase so the sum of this power series is 1.025/.025 or 41

Simply multiply the initial reward by 41 to get the total number of coins you can mine in an infinite number of days.

 So  total reward (@ 2.5%/day increase in difficulty) = [h/d] * [(41*25*86400)/2^32] which you can use for any device.  If you want to use a different percentage increase, substitute 1/(1-x) for 41 (so for your 3% assumption we would get 34.3)

 Right now I have 13.6 GH/s in USB miners and my total reward will be 4.26 BTC if the network hash rate continues to increase at this pace.  I realize there is actually a step change in difficulty every 2016 blocks but even if I use a 10 day period (which is how long the last 2016 blocks took) and 30% compounding instead, the result is only slightly larger ~ 4.5 BTC.  I don't even want to say how much I spent to get them but I can't make an argument without it so... about 22BTC.  Now if those 4.5 BTC I can ultimately generate are worth as much as the 22 BTC I spent to get them, then I'm good but imagine what those 22 BTC would have been worth if I had saved them instead ;(  Live and learn!

 Take care
 
PS based on the 2.5% increase, a 2 TH/s miner received 90 days from today would mine 1.65 BTC/day so you're right, at 14k, it's still only worth a wait-and-see!

  
 

[creativex]

Hi xhomerx10. I'd be interested in the specifics you used in your calculations. A couple of observations. First, difficulty has been going up by more than 2.5%/day and the next increase looks to continue this trend. Secondly, don't forget to factor in the cost of powered USB hubs to operate your satoshi sticks.

Cheers.

 Hi Creativex,

  I was calculating a compounded rate on diff and if you take 2.5% compounded daily over 10 days (which is as long as the Bitcoin network took to finish the last 2 sets of 2016 blocks) it works out to just shy of a 30% and I think the last two changes were right around there.  I didn't factor in electricity costs - I am merely trying to show the maximum number of coins you can generate. If you can't mine at least as many bitcoins as it would take you to buy it at today's exchange rate, it is simply not worth buying the device.  The bitcoins would be a better purchase for your money.

 Essentially, I calculated the current reward and used a power series to factor in the rate of change of difficulty hence the declining reward.  

 Consider h is hash rate in hashes per second, t is time in seconds, D is difficulty, the probability of generating a block is 1/(2^32*D) and the current block reward is 25 BTC

 reward = 25*h*t/(2^32*D)

 now substitute 86400 seconds for the time to represent one day's reward for each subsequent day, increase D by 2.5% (so D*1.025) of the previous day and as you can see we have a convergent power series: 1 + x + x^2 + x^3... whose sum can be calculated using the formula [x^(m-1)-1]/(x-1)  for m iterations OR to simplify further, we can use an infinite number of iterations which gives us the sum 1/(1-x)

 x will have the value 1/1.025 (because D is in the denominator) if we consider the 2.5% per day compound increase so the sum of this power series is 1.025/.025 or 41

Simply multiply the initial reward by 41 to get the total number of coins you can mine in an infinite number of days.

 So  total reward (@ 2.5%/day increase in difficulty) = [h/d] * [(41*25*86400)/2^32] which you can use for any device.  If you want to use a different percentage increase, substitute 1/(1-x) for 41 (so for your 3% assumption we would get 34.3)

 Right now I have 13.6 GH/s in USB miners and my total reward will be 4.26 BTC if the network hash rate continues to increase at this pace.  I realize there is actually a step change in difficulty every 2016 blocks but even if I use a 10 day period (which is how long the last 2016 blocks took) and 30% compounding instead, the result is only slightly larger ~ 4.5 BTC.  I don't even want to say how much I spent to get them but I can't make an argument without it so... about 22BTC.  Now if those 4.5 BTC I can ultimately generate are worth as much as the 22 BTC I spent to get them, then I'm good but imagine what those 22 BTC would have been worth if I had saved them instead ;(  Live and learn!

 Take care
 
PS based on the 2.5% increase, a 2 TH/s miner received 90 days from today would mine 1.65 BTC/day so you're right, at 14k, it's still only worth a wait-and-see!

Thanks for showing your work. As we're a BTC based company paying dividends daily in BTC, I think of returns in terms of BTC and leave fiat exchange rates out of the maths whenever possible. Obviously it's not possible to exclude exchange rates entirely from my analysis as many(most) hardware vendors price their products in fiat. In this instance I would use a one time exchange rate conversion which would then become the product's initial cost. A positive ROI would be achieved when that number is exceeded by output from said equipment.

Cheers.

[JimiQ84]

It looks like BitFury is delivering

Here is my contribution to resolving the bet.

Some info and pictures of my units: 400GH unit and 25GH unit. Total hashrate ordered 425GH. They seem to be working better without fans.

This is what I got yesterday:



Power consumption is for 16 H-Boards.


I'm still tweaking my units manually. I'd say 380GH from 16 H-boards is possible.



Here is a picture from my pool. Hashrate estimate is based on the previous 45 minutes.
Both units are connected to worker "Bebber_1".

[xhomerx10]

Hi xhomerx10. I'd be interested in the specifics you used in your calculations. A couple of observations. First, difficulty has been going up by more than 2.5%/day and the next increase looks to continue this trend. Secondly, don't forget to factor in the cost of powered USB hubs to operate your satoshi sticks.

Cheers.

 Hi Creativex,

  I was calculating a compounded rate on diff and if you take 2.5% compounded daily over 10 days (which is as long as the Bitcoin network took to finish the last 2 sets of 2016 blocks) it works out to just shy of a 30% and I think the last two changes were right around there.  I didn't factor in electricity costs - I am merely trying to show the maximum number of coins you can generate. If you can't mine at least as many bitcoins as it would take you to buy it at today's exchange rate, it is simply not worth buying the device.  The bitcoins would be a better purchase for your money.

 Essentially, I calculated the current reward and used a power series to factor in the rate of change of difficulty hence the declining reward.  

 Consider h is hash rate in hashes per second, t is time in seconds, D is difficulty, the probability of generating a block is 1/(2^32*D) and the current block reward is 25 BTC

 reward = 25*h*t/(2^32*D)

 now substitute 86400 seconds for the time to represent one day's reward for each subsequent day, increase D by 2.5% (so D*1.025) of the previous day and as you can see we have a convergent power series: 1 + x + x^2 + x^3... whose sum can be calculated using the formula [x^(m-1)-1]/(x-1)  for m iterations OR to simplify further, we can use an infinite number of iterations which gives us the sum 1/(1-x)

 x will have the value 1/1.025 (because D is in the denominator) if we consider the 2.5% per day compound increase so the sum of this power series is 1.025/.025 or 41

Simply multiply the initial reward by 41 to get the total number of coins you can mine in an infinite number of days.

 So  total reward (@ 2.5%/day increase in difficulty) = [h/d] * [(41*25*86400)/2^32] which you can use for any device.  If you want to use a different percentage increase, substitute 1/(1-x) for 41 (so for your 3% assumption we would get 34.3)

 Right now I have 13.6 GH/s in USB miners and my total reward will be 4.26 BTC if the network hash rate continues to increase at this pace.  I realize there is actually a step change in difficulty every 2016 blocks but even if I use a 10 day period (which is how long the last 2016 blocks took) and 30% compounding instead, the result is only slightly larger ~ 4.5 BTC.  I don't even want to say how much I spent to get them but I can't make an argument without it so... about 22BTC.  Now if those 4.5 BTC I can ultimately generate are worth as much as the 22 BTC I spent to get them, then I'm good but imagine what those 22 BTC would have been worth if I had saved them instead ;(  Live and learn!

 Take care
 
PS based on the 2.5% increase, a 2 TH/s miner received 90 days from today would mine 1.65 BTC/day so you're right, at 14k, it's still only worth a wait-and-see!

Thanks for showing your work. As we're a BTC based company paying dividends daily in BTC, I think of returns in terms of BTC and leave fiat exchange rates out of the maths whenever possible. Obviously it's not possible to exclude exchange rates entirely from my analysis as many(most) hardware vendors price their products in fiat. In this instance I would use a one time exchange rate conversion which would then become the product's initial cost. A positive ROI would be achieved when that number is exceeded by output from said equipment.

Cheers.

 It is hard to remove exchange rates entirely, especially when trying to factor in electricity costs.  Luckily the market is helping us now by making mining hardware obsolete before we can even plug it in!  I'm still waiting for my BFL 60Gh/s space heater.  I figure it will only be good for keeping my feet warm under the desk this winter or next spring....

Take care

[creativex]

It is hard to remove exchange rates entirely, especially when trying to factor in electricity costs.  Luckily the market is helping us now by making mining hardware obsolete before we can even plug it in!  I'm still waiting for my BFL 60Gh/s space heater.  I figure it will only be good for keeping my feet warm under the desk this winter or next spring....

Take care

Yes how...lucky. My problem with using exchange rates in calculations of returns is that people have a tendency to do this selectively and if you're calculating returns in fiat for devices that mint BTC then you should probably be exchanging fiat for BTC directly. Sadly, some unscrupulous vendors even use this mechanism as justification for their non-performance.

[xhomerx10]

It looks like BitFury is delivering

Here is my contribution to resolving the bet.

Some info and pictures of my units: 400GH unit and 25GH unit. Total hashrate ordered 425GH. They seem to be working better without fans.

This is what I got yesterday:



Power consumption is for 16 H-Boards.


I'm still tweaking my units manually. I'd say 380GH from 16 H-boards is possible.



Here is a picture from my pool. Hashrate estimate is based on the previous 45 minutes.
Both units are connected to worker "Bebber_1".

 The $20k initial price tag on these was way too high as was the $12k for October delivery.  Now they're saying $8k for October delivery which is still quite a risky venture IMHO.

Take care

[creativex]

It looks like BitFury is delivering

Hi JimiQ84. I believe this makes Bitfury EU the first pre-order vendor to deliver on time. The US Bitfury guys were still a little behind last I'd seen, but not far.

It looks like he's getting 20.79Gh/H card. 332.67Gh/s for the 16 card kit @ 267w for a very impressive efficiency of .8026w/Gh/s. Bitfury's rumored die shrink to 28nm may drive competing vendors to the poor house.

Cheers.