btt

[creativex]

I'm not following your 8% difficulty increase per adjustment and I don't understand why you think it will trail off when BFL hasn't shipped much of anything...yet, Avalon b2 & b3 are late, and both ASICMiner and Avalon have hundreds of Th of chips on order now. Again, forgive me as I have very little time today, but I didn't want you to think I'm disinterested in your numbers or the conclusions you've reached based on them.



I'm certainly no mathematician, but that looks like a bit more than 8% increase every three weeks...more like 300% just since February. What am I missing?

Cheers.

Edit: Operating costs are paid for from my own stake.

[1714884991]

1714884991

[1714884991]

1714884991

[davecoin]

According to 50BTC's difficulty history tab:

Since February 5th, the average has been +15.5% per adjustment over the last 10 difficulty adjustments.  

[malona82]

The chart you show is 100% correlated to the price of BTC, and that's something we really can't speculate on.  In the preceding few months before the price of btc went from 11 150 the difficulty was roughly unchanged.  there were some ups and downs but generally flat.  So every time through BTC history the price goes flat and so does hashrate.  I really can't speculate if BTC is at 50 in 6 months or 300.  But that's has to be taken into consideration.  Just look at the hashrate over the past few retargets.  Slowly dropping just like every other time there was a spike in price.  so the past few have been about 10% increases in difficulty and who know, maybe the price stays flat or goes down and we end up with a steal of a deal.  But we all keep sitting here saying well difficulty has to skyrocket because there are so many companies out there that are going to 10x the difficulty in the next 3 months.  For all we know public opinion on the amount of hash power that is expected to hit the market in the future could be significantly less then expected.  If there was the ability to increase hash power exponentially it would of already happened.  And the big rise came a few months back and ever since we are seeing slower growth.  And if BTC stays at 130 for the next 3 months there is no reason to think that growth won't have stopped.   

https://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?hl=en&hl=en&key=0AmcTCtjBoRWUdHVRMHpqWUJValI1RlZiaEtCT1RrQmc

here is a spreadsheet that shows the price and difficulty and you will always see the same result.  Price moves followed by a rise and then after price halts the difficulty does too.  So showing that chart you did without expressing that there is a correlation with price is misleading.  As an investor I bought into BASIC for hash power.  I can store the BTC i invested in BASIC in my own wallet if i wanted to speculate on price.  But that's not the case, but that's pretty much what we are doing here at this point.  

I'm not being hostile at all, I just think the rational of why we wouldn't invest more in hash power now is misguided in my opinion.  If we can get the avalons in secondary market that's the best case, but at this point there isn't that many options so we'll be waiting months before we invest our 1k btc horde.  And personally I wouldn't think investing all 1k but a few hundred to increase some divis and get some payback would be wonderful.  

[creativex]

While the increase in the exchange rate has enabled many that would otherwise have shut down to keep mining with GPUs, it seems likely that Avalon batch 1 shipping(20Th) as well as ASICMiner bringing 3Th online in February had more than a little to do with the rapid rise in network hash rate and therefore difficulty. While ASIC deployment has been slower than expected due to slipping delivery dates by some, ASICMiner's hash rate has gone from 0 to over 20Th since February plus they've sold 60 blades at auction and more directly.

This kind of huge increase in hash rate is typical when newer more efficient technology takes over. A similar period of increased network growth occurred when GPUs took over from CPUs. This period of increased network growth will not stop until mining is again marginally profitable. The cost to produce ASIC mining chips is heavily front end loaded so why would ASICMiner and Avalon, who have proven they can produce large numbers of working chips, stop producing inexpensive chips until something more efficient supplants them?

Cheers.

[malona82]

While the increase in the exchange rate has enabled many that would otherwise have shut down to keep mining with GPUs, it seems likely that Avalon batch 1 shipping(20Th) as well as ASICMiner bringing 3Th online in February had more than a little to do with the rapid rise in network hash rate and therefore difficulty. While ASIC deployment has been slower than expected due to slipping delivery dates by some, ASICMiner's hash rate has gone from 0 to over 20Th since February plus they've sold 60 blades at auction and more directly.

This kind of huge increase in hash rate is typical when newer more efficient technology takes over. A similar period of increased network growth occurred when GPUs took over from CPUs. This period of increased network growth will not stop until mining is again marginally profitable. The cost to produce ASIC mining chips is heavily front end loaded so why would ASICMiner and Avalon, who have proven they can produce large numbers of working chips, stop producing inexpensive chips until something more efficient supplants them?

Cheers.

I know i'll never win this battle and that's fine.  it's what makes a democracy and i might not be right in my thoughts.  I just feel like the direction at this point is that we'll wait for a great opportunity arrive and like you said better tech will come, but i feel like when that happens it will be a replay of these asics all over again.  And i'd just like to say this.  when GPU's took over people may of thought it wasn't a profitable means at the same point in the process and that was the wrong opinion.  We may be in the early stages of a boom, but we have time to get some profit and hash power before it gets out of hand.  It's obvious that everyone's predictions of hash power dating back to 2012 have not come true in the least.  And the way the network is looking now we may see a retarget below the 8% I gave in my prediction this retarget.  This will be the last post on the issue as it's obviously not anything anyone is considering or even has any desire for.  So i'll just sit back and see where this heads.  But I really don't think hording 1k BTC is a great strategy.

[creativex]

The current tech is perfectly acceptable, that's why we have some on pre-order, but that doesn't mean that any price is a good price. AM blades seem terrific, they're just very high priced. This situation, like the one you described with many incorrect predictions of soaring hash rates in 2012 was created by hardware vendors that exaggerated their delivery schedules. If BFL and BTCFPGA had been able to ship ASIC products in the numbers they claimed in Q4 of 2012 then ASICMiner blades surely would not command the huge premiums they do at this time, though it seems likely difficulty would be far higher than it is right now anyway.

We have hardware capable of 155ish Gh/s paid for that's already overdue AND we have a sizable cash position to expand our hash rate significantly going forward. Despite the frustrating delays, I feel we're well positioned. 

The last estimate I saw was for an increase of nearly 14% for the next BTC re-target, though admittedly the estimates don't tend to be all that accurate till a few days before a re-target.

Cheers.

[jmutch]

why don't you at least put the funds into ASICMINER PT shares until something worthwhile comes along.

reality check: Noone's going to sell any "in hand hardware" to anyone for less than the equivalent cost of blades. not for a little while anyway.

[malona82]

The current tech is perfectly acceptable, that's why we have some on pre-order, but that doesn't mean that any price is a good price. AM blades seem terrific, they're just very high priced. This situation, like the one you described with many incorrect predictions of soaring hash rates in 2012 was created by hardware vendors that exaggerated their delivery schedules. If BFL and BTCFPGA had been able to ship ASIC products in the numbers they claimed in Q4 of 2012 then ASICMiner blades surely would not command the huge premiums they do at this time, though it seems likely difficulty would be far higher than it is right now anyway.

We have hardware capable of 155ish Gh/s paid for that's already overdue AND we have a sizable cash position to expand our hash rate significantly going forward. Despite the frustrating delays, I feel we're well positioned. 

The last estimate I saw was for an increase of nearly 14% for the next BTC re-target, though admittedly the estimates don't tend to be all that accurate till a few days before a re-target.

Cheers.

Again, there is the hope and prayer on "new tech" there are 2 products ordered.  3 batches of avalons, 2000 total units and they have only delivered 700 of them in the past 6 months.  Not to mention the thousands of BFL that haven't shipped.  Not sure if you haven't noticed but the estimates are already down to 11%.  The network had a few quick blocks early which made it look as if the retarget was going to be much higher, but hashrate isn't actually higher it's flat.  Like i said before, the network follows price as it's main indicator and price hasn't moved in some time and the network is stalling.  I think this company is missing a great opportunity right now. 

[creativex]

The current tech is perfectly acceptable, that's why we have some on pre-order, but that doesn't mean that any price is a good price. AM blades seem terrific, they're just very high priced. This situation, like the one you described with many incorrect predictions of soaring hash rates in 2012 was created by hardware vendors that exaggerated their delivery schedules. If BFL and BTCFPGA had been able to ship ASIC products in the numbers they claimed in Q4 of 2012 then ASICMiner blades surely would not command the huge premiums they do at this time, though it seems likely difficulty would be far higher than it is right now anyway.

We have hardware capable of 155ish Gh/s paid for that's already overdue AND we have a sizable cash position to expand our hash rate significantly going forward. Despite the frustrating delays, I feel we're well positioned. 

The last estimate I saw was for an increase of nearly 14% for the next BTC re-target, though admittedly the estimates don't tend to be all that accurate till a few days before a re-target.

Cheers.

Again, there is the hope and prayer on "new tech" there are 2 products ordered.  3 batches of avalons, 2000 total units and they have only delivered 700 of them in the past 6 months.  Not to mention the thousands of BFL that haven't shipped.  Not sure if you haven't noticed but the estimates are already down to 11%.  The network had a few quick blocks early which made it look as if the retarget was going to be much higher, but hashrate isn't actually higher it's flat.  Like i said before, the network follows price as it's main indicator and price hasn't moved in some time and the network is stalling.  I think this company is missing a great opportunity right now.

Hi malona82,

We're not talking about new tech anymore and I'd hardly call multiple Avalon pre-orders a "hope and prayer". They've delivered and I think the chances that they won't continue to deliver are next to zero. They're overdue, and their CS leaves a whole bunch to be desired, but they're plainly not BFL(which we fortunately haven't a single bitcent tied up in).

No I've not noticed the estimates down to +11%, allchains currently indicates +13%, but again the estimates are not historically reliable 9+ days out. I disagree with your assessment that the network is stalling as I see no evidence to support such a conclusion. Your own prior estimate called for an average increase of 8%, so I fail to see how a fuzzy estimated increase of +11 to +13% can be described as stalling.

Cheers. 

[solstoce]

So word on the street is some guys that ordered there batch 2 on the same day as us got a tracking number today any word on ours?

[creativex]

So word on the street is some guys that ordered there batch 2 on the same day as us got a tracking number today any word on ours?

Hi solstoce, nothing yet, but I'll keep an ear to the ground. I saw that...very encouraging.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=167726.msg2295271#msg2295271
 

[creativex]

why don't you at least put the funds into ASICMINER PT shares until something worthwhile comes along.

Hi jmutch, I've considered this previously, even before multiple shareholders PM'd me urging as much. My principle concern stems from months of research in the securities section of this very forum. There you'll find multiple mining companies that have been crippled or destroyed by treating on hand cash as investment funds or outsourcing hash rate. I'm a fairly conservative fella by nature...though I doubt you guys even noticed. GLBSE's collapse and numerous other betrayals prompted me to set up this company in such a way that we didn't extend trust to anyone we didn't have to.

Over time I've come to trust btct.co and more specifically burnside. Conveniently he's also the operator of the ASICMiner-PT on that exchange, and as a result I wouldn't be opposed to bASIC-MINING parking a sizable portion of our assets in shares there. There's clearly enough liquidity on the exchange now that we can get our funds out relatively quickly if necessary.

Do any shareholders object to bASIC-MINING purchasing 200 shares of ASICMiner-PT on btct.co and distributing 100% of the dividends to shareholders? If so what are your concerns?

Cheers.  

[matt4054]

Do any shareholders object to bASIC-MINING purchasing 200 shares of ASICMiner-PT on btct.co and distributing 100% of the dividends to shareholders? If so what are your concerns?

My primary concern about this would be the max. price of your bids to buy the shares. I couldn't find the topics right now but AFAIK there are still multiple sellers of thousands of direct shares at 2.5 fixed price and they seem to sell slowly at this price. IMHO the current price of 2.4-2.5 makes it a risky investment (more than the Blades I would say, but it's just my opinion of course)

[jmutch]

Gee, i need to put more time into posting. I did not mean for that comment to come of harsh or frustrated...

I believe that there would be minimal risk at purchasing 100-200 shares at 2.3-2.4. Of course this is my opinion. Open to discussion.

[creativex]

Gee, i need to put more time into posting. I did not mean for that comment to come of harsh or frustrated...

I believe that there would be minimal risk at purchasing 100-200 shares at 2.3-2.4. Of course this is my opinion. Open to discussion.

You're fine, I'm wired up on coffee due to a late night and early morning.

This is something I've considered multiple times over the past few weeks anyway, particularly as the delays with Avalon's SMT line have pushed delivery back.

Cheers.

[creativex]

Do any shareholders object to bASIC-MINING purchasing 200 shares of ASICMiner-PT on btct.co and distributing 100% of the dividends to shareholders? If so what are your concerns?

My primary concern about this would be the max. price of your bids to buy the shares. I couldn't find the topics right now but AFAIK there are still multiple sellers of thousands of direct shares at 2.5 fixed price and they seem to sell slowly at this price. IMHO the current price of 2.4-2.5 makes it a risky investment (more than the Blades I would say, but it's just my opinion of course)

Hi matt4054. The last three weekly dividends from friedcat have averaged over .02/share. A share price of 2.5BTC would offer a daily yield of at least 0.11428% or an APY of 41.714% if that dividend is maintained. Aside from Avalon's batch 2 delivery I don't see a whole lot on the immediate horizon that's likely to threaten ASICMiner's share of the network. I believe the largest of those dividends was dispersed following their second hardware auction, so hardware sales are clearly figuring into the dividends. While I haven't closely tracked their ongoing blade sale thread I have noted that they're currently selling their USB mining devices and these appear to be well received even at a price that's prohibitively high IMO.

Cheers.  

[matt4054]

Aside from Avalon's batch 2 delivery I don't see a whole lot on the immediate horizon that's likely to threaten ASICMiner's share of the network. I believe the largest of those dividends was dispersed following their second hardware auction, so hardware sales are clearly figuring into the dividends. While I haven't closely tracked their ongoing blade sale thread I have noted that they're currently selling their USB mining devices and these appear to be well received even at a price that's prohibitively high IMO.

I can follow your reasoning on this. With things put this way, I wouldn't object BASIC buying AM shares (direct or PT, whatever you feel more appropriate). It seems like the best option to use the funds right now indeed.

[creativex]

NEW MOTION POSTED at https://btct.co/security/BASIC-MINING

Shall bASIC-MINING invest idle capital in shares of ASICMiner-PT and distribute 100% of the resulting dividends to shareholders?

Sorry for the recent motion spam.

[solstoce]

My thoughts on AM right now are buy low sell high, right now AM is "high" once the pricepoint calms down "IE AM just experienced over 200% growth in 30 days" then we should look into buying "low". Im expecting the pricepoint to be much closer to 2 btc once the intial flood of orders dividend go out. Also I think we should look at full shares instead of pt shares we wont need the advantages of a pt share because we will be holding these shares unless you plan to have them turned over I know burnside will transfer the pt shares to friedcat if requested. Maybe we should just get our feet wet with 100 shares and watch the prices saturday as they seem the lowest then. Just my thoughts btw I left AM to come here.

Edit
 Upon further thought  one advantage with pt shares is we could sell put options though to cover any losses if there would be a sudden drop.

[creativex]

My thoughts on AM right now are buy low sell high. Once the pricepoint calms down then we should look into this. Im expecting the pricepoint to be much closer to 2 btc once the intial flood of orders dividend go out. Also I think we should look at full shares instead of pt shares we wont need the advantages of a pt share because we will be holding these shares unless you plan to have them turned over I know burnside will transfer the pt shares to friedcat if requested. Maybe we should just get our feet wet with 100 shares and watch the prices saturday as they seem the lowest then. Just my thoughts btw I left AM to come here.

ASICMINER-PT seems pretty calm the last week:



Not sure I follow your reasoning on direct share purchase from friedcat. I'd like to keep the funds liquid and the btct.co PT now has over 21k shares traded, which will provide far more liquidity than direct shares can. There's no administration fee and 100% of dividends are being dispersed.

Cheers.